A Quick Glance at the Pitching Staffs

by jscape2000 on Oct 27, 2009 1:15 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 14 comments

Yesterday, I took a look at the Yankees and Phillies using OPS+ (because it is ballpark adjusted) and UZR/150 (a defensive metric available on Fangraphs.

Today, let's check out the pitchers:

Maybe this warants its own post, but I'm going with the 3 man rotation, pitching AJ and Andy on short rest in games 5 and 6 if necessary.

	ERA+	WHIP	K/9		ERA+	WHIP	K/9
Sabathia	133	1.15	7.7	Rivera	253	0.91	9.8
Lee	126	1.13	8.4	Lidge	59	1.80	9.4
Burnett	110	1.40	8.5	Hughes	147	1.12	10.0
Pedro	118	1.25	7.5	JA Happ	146	1.24	6.5
Pettitte	107	1.38	6.8	Joba	94	1.54	7.6
Hamels	99	1.29	7.8	Durbin	97	1.48	8.0
Sabathia	133	1.15	7.7	Coke	99	1.07	7.4
Blanton	106	1.32	7.5	Eyre	285	1.27	6.6
Burnett	110	1.40	8.5	Marte	47	1.58	8.8
Lee	126	1.13	8.4	Bastardo	66	1.48	7.2
Pettitte	107	1.38	6.8	Robertson	135	1.35	13.0
Pedro	118	1.25	7.5	Madson	131	1.23	9.1
Sabathia	133	1.15	7.7	Aceves	126	1.01	7.4
Hamels	99	1.29	7.8	Chan Ho Park	97	1.40	7.9
				Gaudin	130	1.45	7.3

First, the bullpen.

Notice that Phillies only carry 11 relievers, while the Yanks brought 12 to the ALCS. I think leaving off Aceves, who has really struggled in the second half, should be a possibility. It would make the bench deeper and more flexible for the NL games.

Yes, Houdini Robertson has a 135 ERA+, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 13.0 K/9. Those numbers should tell us just how magic he is.

After the disparity between Mo Rivera and Brad Lidge, it's striking how similar the two bullpens are. The real test will be which manager uses his pen most effectively, a test the Fire Joe Girardi crowd must already be nervous about.

Now, the matchups.

I'm guessing at the Phillies' rotation based on the NLCS, but Charlie Manuel or a day of rain could change things dramatically.

Game 1 is a dream matchup, and is a clear push.

Game 2 seems to favor the Phillies, but the Yankees are familiar with Pedro, so hopefully that levels the playing field.

Game 3 is close, but I give the Yanks a slight edge because Pettitte has been pitching well.

Game 4 clearly favors the Yankees.

Game 5 would clearly favor the Phils.

Game 6 looks like a push because Pettitte would be on short rest, and both teams will have seen the starters once already.

Game 7 favors the Yankees.

After looking at the lineups yesterday, I was feeling much better, but to be honest every matchup in this series is very close. A victory in Game 1 keeps looking more and more important.

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Comments

Who is this Eyre kid?

285 ERA+? Yikes! Tho, these numbers may be a tad misleading. Lidge is pitching better than a 59 right now, and Marte looks a lot better than a 47. What’re the numbers for Bruney? I would not be surprised at all to see him on the roster…

by waw on Oct 27, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know that you can assume

that the Phils will go with a four-man rotation. they may well go to Cliff Lee in 1, 4, and 7.

by PortlandYankee on Oct 27, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The rumor is

that the Phils are seriously considering pitching Lee in game 4, and if needed, 7.

by ACPhoenix on Oct 27, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last I had heard they were going with a 4 man.
Obviously, we’ll re-evaluate as we get confirmation.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 27, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is, they may go with Lee 3 times and Pedro or Hamels (probably Hamels) once

by PortlandYankee on Oct 27, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Pedro’s a guy that sat on the sidelines for a huge portion of the year. Regardless of what his numbers are right now, baseball as a whole was not seeing a whole lot of value in him. He’s more vulnerable than his numbers let on.

by gwl on Oct 27, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I actually come to the opposite conclusion. Because Pedro has been on the side lines for so long, and because he has had a nice long rest since his last start, his vulnerability is lower than it would be if he were on normal rest or if he had pitched the entire season. Pedro has, to my mind, basically shown this year that he can still pitch, but he just cant do it well very frequently.

by Whack8888 on Oct 27, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tough call

I’m sure it almost came down to a coin flip for Bruney, but play time won out is my guess. We keep hearing about “Staying with what worked” from Joe, but I’m sure they are flipping a coin again on this one.

I had along discussion about this match up with my father (HUGE Dodgers fan) before either series was over. He kept talking about this Phillie’s team and how they are hitting better in the post season than any team. My response was that they haven’t faced any team with the rotation the Yanks have either. Case in point is how well they kept key Angels players off the bases. On top of starters is the pen, and nobody has the depth.

Lee and CC are both not the same, so I think this will be a push.

In my opinion, Pedro is nowhere near the days of old. His heater is that of Wakefield, but he has some great movement with the breaking balls. The key is going to be patience. Wait for the mistakes and get to their pen quickly with him. Nod to AJ

I like our chances with Andy a little better, but the key will be how many innings he can go. I call this a push and it will come down to the pens. I still give out pen the nod.

I give CC G4 and if he does anything like he did last G4, then he gets a nod.

AJ in G5 – Depends on who the Phills pitch, but I would lean to Phills with the nod at home.

We only need 5 games right?!?! :o) I will guess 6 or 7 games.

by LookingFor27 on Oct 27, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pedro is nothing but a junkballer nowadays

Look at his breakdown from 2009
37.7 % Fastball
27.9 % Changeup
10.9 % Curveball
12.2 % Slider
7.2 % Cutter
4.1 % 2 seam

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 27, 2009 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I get this feelin

That Burnett is going to go on a nasty streak streak in the W.S, same with Tex.

That will be the difference…

For the Love of the Game

by ForTheLove on Oct 27, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How the hell is Pedro even compared to AJ?!?!?!

“Game 2 seems to favor the Phillies, but the Yankees are familiar with Pedro, so hopefully that levels the playing field.”

Seriously?!?!!? C’mon Pedro is going to get lit up! He cant even touch 88 mph! WOW!
C’mon Jscape!

by McDaniel on Oct 27, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have to give Pedro credit for holding down the Dodgers in the NLCS, and I have to be realistic about the possibility of a Bad AJ sighting (who allowed 5 runs to these same Phillies in the regular season).

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 28, 2009 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You have to give Pedro credit

He’s turned himself into a completely different pitcher. Even at 88 if you have pinpoint control like he does you can get a lot of guys out. That being said, the Yankees know how to approach pitchers like that. They’re not overly agressive. They’ll wait him out and make him come over the plate. Even if they don’t light him up they’ll get him out of the game early enough to feast on the Phillies middle relief.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Oct 27, 2009 3:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs