A Quick Glance at the Pitching Staffs

Yesterday, I took a look at the Yankees and Phillies using OPS+ (because it is ballpark adjusted) and UZR/150 (a defensive metric available on Fangraphs.

Today, let's check out the pitchers:

Maybe this warants its own post, but I'm going with the 3 man rotation, pitching AJ and Andy on short rest in games 5 and 6 if necessary.

ERA+ WHIP K/9 ERA+ WHIP K/9
Sabathia 133 1.15 7.7 Rivera 253 0.91 9.8
Lee 126 1.13 8.4 Lidge 59 1.80 9.4
Burnett 110 1.40 8.5 Hughes 147 1.12 10.0
Pedro 118 1.25 7.5 JA Happ 146 1.24 6.5
Pettitte 107 1.38 6.8 Joba 94 1.54 7.6
Hamels 99 1.29 7.8 Durbin 97 1.48 8.0
Sabathia 133 1.15 7.7 Coke 99 1.07 7.4
Blanton 106 1.32 7.5 Eyre 285 1.27 6.6
Burnett 110 1.40 8.5 Marte 47 1.58 8.8
Lee 126 1.13 8.4 Bastardo 66 1.48 7.2
Pettitte 107 1.38 6.8 Robertson 135 1.35 13.0
Pedro 118 1.25 7.5 Madson 131 1.23 9.1
Sabathia 133 1.15 7.7 Aceves 126 1.01 7.4
Hamels 99 1.29 7.8 Chan Ho Park 97 1.40 7.9
Gaudin 130 1.45 7.3

 

First, the bullpen.

Notice that Phillies only carry 11 relievers, while the Yanks brought 12 to the ALCS.  I think leaving off Aceves, who has really struggled in the second half, should be a possibility.  It would make the bench deeper and more flexible for the NL games.

Yes, Houdini Robertson has a 135 ERA+, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 13.0 K/9.  Those numbers should tell us just how magic he is.

After the disparity between Mo Rivera and Brad Lidge, it's striking how similar the two bullpens are.  The real test will be which manager uses his pen most effectively, a test the Fire Joe Girardi crowd must already be nervous about.

Now, the matchups.

I'm guessing at the Phillies' rotation based on the NLCS, but Charlie Manuel or a day of rain could change things dramatically.

Game 1 is a dream matchup, and is a clear push.

Game 2 seems to favor the Phillies, but the Yankees are familiar with Pedro, so hopefully that levels the playing field.

Game 3 is close, but I give the Yanks a slight edge because Pettitte has been pitching well.

Game 4 clearly favors the Yankees.

Game 5 would clearly favor the Phils.

Game 6 looks like a push because Pettitte would be on short rest, and both teams will have seen the starters once already.

Game 7 favors the Yankees.

After looking at the lineups yesterday, I was feeling much better, but to be honest every matchup in this series is very close.  A victory in Game 1 keeps looking more and more important.

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