A Quick Glance at the Lineups

by jscape2000 on Oct 26, 2009 12:42 PM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

I heard it from a buddy of mine who's a Phillies fan.

I heard it on NY sports radio on the way in to work.

Now I've seen our own PortlandYankee give the Phillies lineup the nod over our own New York Yankees.

And I'm scratching my head a little, but I'm willing to be wrong, so I gave the lineups a quick glance:

	OPS+	UZR/150
Jorge Posada	130	NA
Carlos Ruiz	103	NA
Mark Teixeira	146	-2.4
Ryan Howard	139	1.4
Robinson Cano	126	-4.9
Chase Utley	135	8.8
Alex Rodriguez	143	-7.6
Pedro Felix	80	3.1
Derek Jeter	129	5.3
Jimmy Rollins	85	2.3
Johnny Damon	123	-11.9
Raul Ibanez	130	8.1
Melky Cabrera	97	2.6
Shane Victorino	109	-1.9
Nick Swisher	126	-1.6
Jason Werth	127	5.7
Hideki Matsui	128	NA
Matt Stairs	93	NA

Let's call Tex vs. Howard a push.

Obviously, Chase Utley is the best 2B in the game. We've known that for several year.

The Phillies have an edge in the outfield corners because of the quality of their defense; however, I've seen Raul Ibanez play left field in Yankee Stadium. I think that it's much closer that most commentators think.

The Yankees have a clear edge at DH, catcher, third base, and shortstop. DH, catcher and third base we all expected. But am I the only one a little surprised by how completely Jeter outclasses Rollins?

Centerfield is a trickier position to call. Victorino has Melky by 12 points of OPS+, a margin, but not a huge one. Melky has Victorino by 4 and half runs on defense. In centerfield, my gut goes with defense, but I'll call it a push.

What do you think?

I'll run down the pitching staffs this evening.

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Comments

They have a good team to be sure

Their lineup is dangerous. Ours is dangerous as well. Their rotation? Well Cliff Lee is awesome but we have hit him well. Cole Hamels ain’t Cole Hamels circa 2008. Not too worried about their bullpen. If our hitters wake up with RISP, our pitchers keep doing what they do we are going to apply A LOT of pressure on the Phillies. With that said, don’t expect this team to make the mental errors of the Twins or Angels. They won it all last year and won’t make those mistakes.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 26, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

dont be so sure

Chase utley made several throwing errors in the dodgers series. The phillies aren’t immune to mistakes, and remember we made the twins and angels make mistakes by putting constant pressure on them. Yes, the phillies are a great team. Trust me, I live in Philly and have had to hear this for some time. But they have no, I repeat, no advantage over our beloved yanks. The phillies better understand, we are not the dodgers, and Cc is not with the brewers. Times have changed, and this our time.

by swanny4eva on Oct 26, 2009 1:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Lee and Stuff

One thing about Cliff Lee is a lot of our numbers against him came from when he was a below average pitcher before 2008. I don’t think you can rely too much on those. As for Hamels, he threw 180 innings in 2007 and he threw 260, including the playoffs, in 2008. It won them the World Series but his arm clearly hasn’t recovered which is why he’s not the same guy this year. Still he’s capable of throwing a gem. I love us against Pedro, it’ll be just like old times.

I think the Phillies win the position by position battle. I’d give them 1b, 2b, and all 3 outfields while we get 3b, C, SS and DH, however the positions we win, we win by a much wider margin.

by Let's Talk About Tex Baby on Oct 26, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Stairs

I can’t think that Stairs is even half the player he used to be since he’s been relegated to a pinch hitting role. Honestly, there’s no way the Phillies have a lineup advantage over the Yanks. Ibanez has been horrible since the ASB, Feliz & Ruiz are ok at best. Howard scares me, as does Utley. Most of the time it’s b/c of their ballpark, but Yankee Stadium is just as much a hitter-friendly park as Citizens Bank.
I think the Phils will pitch Lee-Pedro-Hamels. I can’t see Cole pitching away when his home/road ERA splits are so divisive (home ERA being great, road being terrible).

by BriGuy27 on Oct 26, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions

Lidge

will hopefully return to the terrible RP he was during the season. Actually let’s just hope it doesn’t get to that point when he comes in the game.

by BriGuy27 on Oct 26, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know about the 1B being a push...

right now, Howard is playing like A-Rod, and Tex is playing like crap (at bat….). Numbers wise in the reg. Season, yea, basically a push. Right now? I’d take Howard at the plate, tho Tex’s D has more than been a big part of the Yanks wins in the playoffs.

I’m surprised to see Werth vs. Swisher be a push. Also kinda like the whole Howard vs. Tex thing, Swish has played well in the field in the playoffs (yea..Swisher bashing cretins…) but obviously hasn’t done much at the plate, while Werth has been A-Rodian at the plate.

And I’m surprised at the Jeter >>Rollins thing too. I think Jeter is better, but not like that better.

..."I predict...the Giants are #1"...

...."That's not a prediction meatman, that's a FACT OF LIFE"!.

---Carl

by FreeBradshaw on Oct 26, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions

good sign though

That both Tex and swish got something going the last game or two.

by swanny4eva on Oct 26, 2009 1:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

also

Howard is only a beast when there our people on the bases in front of him. And that’s where the dodgers failed. But the gas no protection behind him. So keep their lead off bits off and throw him sliders. He can’t hit em and will be free swinging like vlad

by swanny4eva on Oct 26, 2009 1:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Howard does strike out a lot

by waw on Oct 26, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Ryan Howard is a beast--but he can't

hit lefties and will be facing two of the best in the league.

by garp on Oct 26, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I see this going 6 or 7 games...

with either team winning. If Phillies bullpen does well and Brad Lidge turns it around, it will be very very tough. In four innings in post season work, he has not given up a run and his WHIP is 1.00. Add to that Howard’s 8 RBIs in five NLCS games and 14 in all 9 post season games, and they look tough.

I think our bullpen and home field advantage works in our favor. Add to that Cliff Lee being the only starter in the post season with an ERA under 4.00. But Pedro might be an ex-factor. Tough to say…

by coops2001 on Oct 26, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions

Slight edge to Yankees

as far as the starting lineups go (non pitchers). Here is how I broke it down. I looked at seasonal WAR a counting stat and converted it over to a rate stat WAR/650PA and broke the lineups down that way.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 26, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions

Hamels

Don’t let your guard down about Cole Hamels, if you thought he was a good pitcher last year, he is pretty much the exact same pitcher this year as he was last. His 2008 and 2009 FIP are almost identical and his FB velocity is on par with 08 vels. He has just been a little bit unlucky with the BABIP this year.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 26, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think it is due to luck

His ERA is 1.3 points higher than last season. Luck has NOTHING to do with that increase. His hits per 9 went from 7.6 to 9.6. He went 10-11 this season.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 26, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Can he pitch a good game?

Sure… so can Padilla. Can he pitch back to back gems like Sabathia? His stats this year does not indicate the likelihood.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 26, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Uh, ok

You might want to try reading this introduction to FIP. There is a lot of luck involved in ERA, some also in FIP. But FIP strives to filter out the “luck” or defensive dependent parts of ERA. Hamels high ERA this year is almost entirely due to his rather high BABIP against. In 2008 he was lucky, in 2009 he was unlucky, but both seasons are nearly identical in terms of FIP.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 26, 2009 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

You might want to get your head out of your stat book

So you say he had an UNLUCKY 2009 season and a LUCKY 2009 season. Wow I didn’t know all your deductive stat whoring can lead you to a conclusion that ends in “Luck”.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 27, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions

IDK...You put this Yankees team in the NL East and I think they'd blow away all the Phillies players numbers.

I think it will be a decent series, but Hammels and Blanton are going to have some serious issues while Cliff Lee isn’t new to them.

by Yankees23 on Oct 26, 2009 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

Game 1

I just want to keep objective here and point out how COLOSSAL game 1 is. Let’s be honest. As Yanks fans we’ve come to expect a W from Sabathia. He has been lights out. I think the Phillies are the same with Cliff Lee. Game 1 sets such a HUGE TONE for this series. Think about if we lose game 1 at home with Sabathia.

It’d be 0-1 and it’d be probably Burnett v. Hamels. Say what you want about Hamels but he has a much better track record than Burnett. I think the Yanks have more to lose in Game 1.

This Phillies team is MUCH better offensively than either team we’ve faced in the playoffs and maybe better than any we could expect to face. Howard and Utley are tremendous. Werth had a great year, and they are deep.

I STILL say Yanks in 6 or 7 only because of Rivera compared to Lidge/Madson and the home field advantange…thank you Bud Selig and the rest of the AL! Also, check out some awesome Yankees Memorabilia from my client, Steiner Sports. It’s some great stuff as we head back to the World Series.

It’ll be fun to watch. I expect a great series.

by tmpalomino on Oct 26, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions

What I'm seeing in the playoffs

has been more important to me than what happened in the regular season.

Now, some of it might be that the Yanks faced much better pitchers in the Angels than they will with the Phils, whereas the Phils faced much worse pitchers than they will with the Yanks.

Offensively, I give the Yanks a weak advantage at C and a stronger advantage at SS and 3B. CF might be a push and DH is a push (Matsui looks finished right now). But the corners, 1B and 2B (Howard and Werth are having MUCH better post-seasons than Tex and Swish offensively), I give to the Phils. So 4-3-2 in favor of the Phils.

Starting pitching on the other hand, I think we have a big advantage. Even bigger in the bullpen. The question is whether we can keep the Phils down enough and capitalize on the weaker pitching, considering our horrible performance with RISP and the disappearance of the HR, which was our calling card.

by PortlandYankee on Oct 26, 2009 3:12 PM EDT reply actions

as much as Tex has not been hitting, his play in the field has been making up for that. Robbie for all his brain farts made some heads up plays last night, including saving Jeter’s bobble and being in position to deny Hunter a base hit in the eighth. Swish needs to come around, and we will need big Tex to hit

by BlackandGoldSSgt on Oct 26, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah what stat is that?

The saves Tex has made at first and the saves Cano has made at second? Once again stats can only give you a rough view of a largely intangible event.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 26, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

it's funny because

i remember in 2000, Mets fans were talking about how they had the edge at every position except for SS (Ordonez vs. Jeter) and CF (Hamilton v. Bernie). yet the Yankees dominated them in five games.

the lineup comparisons are rarely indicators of who is going to win. both lineups are strong and i think they’re basically a wash. the real key to the series is if the Phillies get the Cole Hamels of late, or the Cole Hamels of 2008. if they only have Lee and the questionable bullpen, i like the Yanks’ chances.

by SBakerTheTouchdownMaker on Oct 26, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions

or the Cole Hamels of 2009. Hamels FIP for 2008 and 2009 are identical as are almost every important stat. The difference is that his BABIP against is over 50 points higher this year than last. His 2009 season was the same as his 2008 season, the only difference being the bad luck. It’s true that his post-season (3 starts) performance has been bad so far.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 26, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions