Do lefties actually fare better at Yankee Stadium?

by Travis G on Oct 16, 2009 7:15 AM EDT in Analysis Comment 5 comments

Word out of Angel camp is that Mike Scioscia will split up his two best pitchers in order to start southpaw Joe Saunders at the Stadium. Is he making a smart move? Do lefties actually fare better at Yankee Stadium?

In the limited sample of one season, yes, they do. LHP allowed a batting line of .265/.342/.434. RHP were hit a touch harder in the OBP and SLG categories: .268/.351/.452. That's an OPS difference of .27.

But now the question is whether Jered Weaver is .27 OPSA better than Joe Saunders. He is not.

Saunders' OPSA: .794

Weaver' OPSA: .723

So even subtracting .27 from Saunders' OPSA brings it to .767, still .44 worse than Weaver. Maybe Scioscia is not making the right move by going with the lesser option in game two.

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This is micro-managing at it's worst

From ESPN:

Saunders didn’t get to pitch in the ALDS series against the Red Sox, because it was a sweep. The Angels want Saunders to pitch in Game 2 both because he can help neutralize the short right field porch better, and because Jered Weaver, who will pitch in Game 3, fares much better at home.

The worst thing you can do is make judgments about players based on small sample sizes.

Jered Weaver has a better ERA at home compared to on the road this year (2.90 home vs. 4.78 away) and last year (3.71 home, 4.91 away). Yet in 2007, his road ERA was lower than at home, and in 2006 it was 2.91.

Here are his career splits:
At Home: 7.3 K/9 2.1 BB/9 1.0 HR/9 1.17 WHIP
Away: 7.3 K/9 3.1 BB/9 1.1 HR/9 1.33 WHIP

In other words, Jered Weaver is a pretty good pitcher, regardless of where he’s pitching. The differences in ERA could be attributed to many things, but his peripheral stats are pretty much the same in both places.

Joe Saunders, on the other hand, is a soft-tosser who depends on hitters making contact. Against a lineup that potentially does not include a single below-average hitter, this could be an absolute disaster. Furthermore, thanks to having four switch hitters in the lineup, Saunders would only face three lefties, so neutralizing the porch isn’t so much of an issue.

Even worse for the Angels, starting Saunders in Game 2 likely takes a start away from Scott Kazmir, who, despite having some issues, is clearly a better pitcher.

by 3460kuri on Oct 16, 2009 9:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I totally agree.

The key thing here is simply-Weaver is a better pitcher than Saunders. Despite Saunders good ERA last year, he has a career 5 tRA and a career 4.6 FIP. That is a barely league-average pitcher. While he is claimed to be a ground ball pitcher, he still gives up a fair share of home runs. And, as you guys state, it potentially takes starts away from better pitchers-clearly Weaver and maybe Kazmir. This is an example of why Scioscia is not as smart as the media thinks. Even if the move “works” it is a faulty thought process at play.

by Buzzy on Oct 16, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

plus...

Keep in mind that most of the Yankee lefties hit left handed pitchers very well. Gardner and Matsui both hit lefties better than they do righties (Matsui’s OPS vs. lefties is .140 higher!). Damon is the only lefty hitter that fares worse against lefty pitchers.

In fact, the team OPS+ average against righties is 126. Against lefties, it’s 136.

by Wraithpk on Oct 16, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would bet

that Scioscia’s favoring of a lefty is not because he thinks the Yankees are worse in a general sense against lefties, it is:
a)Weaver is a clear flyball pitcher.
b)Saunders is supposed to be a ground ball pitcher (but one who allows a fair shair of HRs as I mentioned)
c)A lefty turns Posada, Teixeira, and Swisher into righties who have to contend with a bigger outfield.

Regardless, I still think it is a poor decision on his part.

by Buzzy on Oct 16, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs