Keith Olberman is wrong on a few things

by 3460kuri on Oct 14, 2009 7:18 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

Ed Valentine posted a link to Keith Olberman's article about the Atlanta Braves postseason record when the starting pitcher only had three days rest. Here it is.

Olberman is off on a few details, namely, the Braves actually did it 22 times and won 7 of those games from 1991-2005. But he's missing the bigger point by suggesting that the Braves lost those games because the pitcher was starting on three day's rest.

Here is the complete log of games in question:

Clearly, there are some stinkers in the mix, but the results aren't all that bad. Atlanta starters logged Quality Starts (at least 6 IP, 3 ER or less) in half of the games, and there are really only three times ('02 NLDS Game 4, '92 NLCS Game 6, '92 NLCS Game 5) where the starter dug the team a big hole to climb out of. Ten of the losses were only by one or two runs. All in all, this is a pretty poor example against throwing your pitchers out there on three days rest in the postseason.

The real question, for the Braves during their run of division titles, and for the Yankees this year, is who gives you the best chance of winning? Joe Girardi has to decide whether CC Sabathia at perhaps 90% strength is still better than Chad Gaudin (and his career 4.50 ERA, 1.516 WHIP, and 93 ERA+ ) at 100%.

I'll take CC.

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Comments

Good stuff as usual, kuri...

It’s easier to talk about it in black and white rather than just throwing out a couple of numbers out there nebulously- as Olberman does. And I would definitely say 90% of CC is far superior to 100% of Gaudin. I defy anyone to to argue that.

by NumberSeven on Oct 14, 2009 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

It isn’t like CC is a stranger to it. And there is a 10% drop off of IP from last year to boot.

------It's October,winning is what the Yankees do........let's just do it already

by ReggieARodJeter on Oct 14, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+2

I’m still somewhat skeptical of Gaudin’s abilities being that he’s a journeyman and waiver wire fodder.

Great work Kuri!

by Scooby Snacks on Oct 15, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why not give Gaudin a shot with almost no rope?

The second he gives up two runs… throw CC in there on short rest.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 15, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like that notion

but somehow I know Girardi will not go with it. If Gaudin struggles and CC relieves while the Yankees still lose in a tight game, the media is going to burn Girardi for not starting CC instead.

by Scooby Snacks on Oct 15, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good response.

In those 22 starts, Atlanta averaged 4.5 ERA with a 1.395 WHIP (all against playoff caliber offenses) , just a little better than Gaudin’s regular season marks. As you say, it’s not a question of great pitcher on short rest or good pitcher on normal rest, it’s short rest CC vs Gaudin, our next best option who is slightly better than replacement level. I’d take CC even at 80%. Someone should compare the performance of short rest pitchers in the post season (in the 5 man rotation era) to the performance of 4.5 era starters in the post season. If those games indicate going with Gaudin, so be it.

Really, I don’t get what all the fuss about three days rest is, it wasn’t like pitchers imploded all the time back before the 70s when we switched to 5 man rotations. Besides, Sabathia has already shown he can do it.

by metric on Oct 14, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True story,

Comparing Maddux, Glavine, Smoltzy, and the rest of the Braves rotation 10+ years ago to CC is comparing apples to oranges. CC showed last year he could do it (just about single-handedly getting the Brewers into the postseason).
I guess worst case scenario is we get in a hole early and have to make up for it against Kazmir, who has been unimpressive all year.

by Leviticus6688 on Oct 14, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I'm not mistaken

Kazmir has an ERA under 3 since becoming an Angel.

by justinxyankeesfan on Oct 15, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

But five of his six starts have come against Seattle, Oakland, Texas, and Chicago, who ranked 14th, 9th, 7th, and 12th in the AL in runs scored and 14th, 10th, 12th, and 9th in total BBs this year as well. Walks are Kazmir’s problem, so when you put him against light hitting teams who don’t walk much, you’d expect him to do well.

by 3460kuri on Oct 15, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Full rest I say

If a Chad Gaudin started game is the difference in which we win or lose the ALCS this year then there’s most certainly other areas of our game that were compromised. Start the kid and get him some post season experience. We’ve got a great bullpen. We’re going to be around the post pretty regularly so get the boy some experience. Keep CC fresh and ride him for three starts if need be against the Phillies.

by dorsal on Oct 14, 2009 9:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not a big difference

You’re right, the difference between the expectation values of a Gaudin start and a CC short rest is probably only a run or two either way and that’s unlikely to be the deciding factor in the series. Still, it’s doing the little things right? Besides, it’s not certain that we’re going to keep Gaudin around too long. He’s essentially a right handed specialist with decent endurance. That’s not exactly rare. He’s been on 6 different teams in the last 7 years. Don’t get me wrong, I like the guy and would like to see the Yankees sign him to another contract. I just don’t think getting him experience should be a concern in our first ALCS since the year I must never speak of.

I might have misunderstood you if you were meaning experience for this post season. There might be a point to that.

The bullpen point is good though. Whoever pitches probably won’t have to worry about going too deep, so endurance won’t be the primary concern for this starter.

by metric on Oct 14, 2009 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for Gaudin history

No you read that as written, no misunderstanding. I was not aware he wasn’t so young and that he was on so many teams. Great point about the “rareness” of his breed. I’d just hate to discover CC running out of gas when he gets to the World Series. Is it Friday yet?!?!

by dorsal on Oct 15, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs