Is New York Yankees' three-man rotation idea a good one?

by Ed Valentine on Oct 14, 2009 8:21 AM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

I know Travis asked you guys for your opinion the other day on the possibility our New York Yankees will use a three-man starting rotation against Anaheim. And the opinion seemed to be pretty split.

Here is one vote against the three-man rotation. It comes from Keith Olbermann, an unabashed Yankee fan. He looks at recent playoff history, and makes a pretty compelling case for why it's a bad idea.

Like all men, Bobby Cox, who by rights should be elected to the Hall of Fame next winter if he goes through with his plan to retire after next season, has had one Achilles Heel that he's never overcome. Coxy has always been convinced that when all the chips were on the table his starters could do the job on three days' rest, even as the statistics accumulated, proving they could not.

During Atlanta's unprecedented, probably unmatchable playoff run of 1991 through 2005, Cox tried the short-rest thing nineteen times. The Braves lost thirteen of those games.

Every defeat has a thousand parents, but at minimum, starting a pitcher prematurely is a very heavy straw meeting a very weak camel. More over, all Cox's successes came before 1995, when Steve Avery and Tom Glavine and John Smoltz were all young and elastic. Cox would go on to try it six more times between 1996 and 2005, and the Braves didn't win even one of the games. Tim Hudson couldn't do it, nor Kevin Millwood, nor Greg Maddux, nor Smoltz, nor Glavine - and Glavine tried, twice.

If those stats aren't a bright enough white line, there's one more. Cox did it nine times in the World Series, and the Braves won only three of those games. You might get away with it - Beckett did once - but eventually the odds start mounting, and sooner or later it will cost you the playoff series, or the whole ball of wax.

Me? I am on the fence on this one. History says it is a bad idea, but Sabathia has shown he can pitch well on short rest. The temptation to set up Sabathia for three starts, including Game 7, is strong and I understand it. Then again, I think I would feel just as good about a Game 7 with Andy Pettitte pitching as I would with Sabathia getting the ball.

In the end, I guess I can't kill Manager Joe Girardi no matter which way he decides to go on this one.

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Sabathia

is a different beast from those Braves pitchers. Sure, they were all great pitchers, but Sabathia has shown that he can accept heavy workloads and still perform well. This is only going to be one start on short rest for him. He did it for a month straight last season before he finally started to have ill effects from it.

The bottom line is this: our 4th rotation spot is shaky at best. Joba has the stuff, but he’s not consistent enough to make me comfortable with him starting a postseason game. Gaudin is pretty consistent, but doesn’t have shutdown stuff, and little to no postseason experience that I know of. CC on 3 days rest really is our best option, and it gives us the chance to throw him 3 times in the series if we need to.

by Wraithpk on Oct 14, 2009 8:57 AM EDT reply actions

That's true

They were all probably better pitchers in terms of talent, but they couldn’t handle a workload like CC can.

by GMan83201 on Oct 14, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

It depends

on the score of the series. If the yanks are up 3-0 or 2-1 I say Gaudin pitches (yes Gaudin, not because he’s a better starter than Joba, which he may be, but because Joba has more value than Gaudin in the pen). Any other series score, throw Sabathia out there.

I know up 3-0 we’d all love to see CC lay the broom down but why risk his WS starts with that comfortable lead? I don’t see this team dropping 2 in a row the rest of the way. Not only are the 3 starters dominant, they’ve all shown they can be stoppers.

by Jaybat on Oct 14, 2009 9:37 AM EDT reply actions

+1

by NumberSeven on Oct 14, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree with you….I’m on the fence but you know what if the yankees are up 3-0 let guadin pitch and try to lay down the sweep. If not you have CC go in game 5 in Anahiem….big deal. 4-0 or 4-1 saame ball of wax to me…..LET’S GO YANKEES!!!!

by Br0nxb0mber914 on Oct 14, 2009 9:56 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Lay Down the Smacketh!!!!!

This is a year of breaking the old mold in regards to the playoffs….from the new energy in CC and Arod….to things like the Suck Cox being put out by the Angels in the first round….new tradition in the formation of a new era of Yankees baseball in the new home….I say go for the 3 man rotation and drop the right hand of doom on our foes!!!!

Destined for Greatness we are….2009!!!!

by Geneboy326 on Oct 14, 2009 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

Questions

wouldn’t it be on four day’s rest, not three? CC has shown he can have three consecutive quality outings on three day’s rest, I think he can manage one on four.

Look at it this way: even if he is limited to 80 pitches or so (unlikely), what would you feel more confident in: 90 pitches from Gaudin or 80 pitches from CC?

by GMan83201 on Oct 14, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions

Game 1 is the 16th, and Game 4 the 20th. So it would be three full days between starts for CC.

And I still say it depends where the series stands at Game 4. However, if it’s not CC, I definitely want Gaudin over Joba.

by Rumplestiltskin02 on Oct 14, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

there is a big difference

between 3 days and 4 days rest … its an odd thing but true … and i thought it would give CC 4 days rest not five.

by blindmole on Oct 14, 2009 11:46 AM EDT reply actions

3- or 4-man rotation

I would consider a 3-man rotation if and only if we are down coming to Game 4. In any other case I think that Gaudin would have to get the ball despite his rough record against LAA this year. I could consider Joba if and only if he hasn’t been used after Game 1. That might happen with blow-outs or if Bruney can fill Joba’s spot. CC may be better than most on 3 days’ rest, but one could easily lose either game 4 or 7 as a result. Even then, I would probably rule it out unless CC had been knocked out early in Game 1 on a lower pitch count. One must be especially careful if someone else such as AJ would also face short rest. CC is the only one I would try in any circumstances, and I would be inclined against it in virtualy any circumstances.

by logiet on Oct 14, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions

Nobody besides CC faces short rest

there is an extra off day, so even if CC gets only 4 days for game 4, AJ and Andy both get 5 days for games 5 & 6 should it go that far. If it goes 7, CC has 5 days rest for a potential game 7 start.

by GMan83201 on Oct 14, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

So the strategy is to pitch CC until his arm falls off?

Cool…

The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com

by 44FAN on Oct 14, 2009 3:12 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, one start on short rest.

equals arm falling off.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Oct 14, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

after 9 ....

or possibly 10 days off…..

..."I predict...the Giants are #1"...

...."That's not a prediction meatman, that's a FACT OF LIFE"!.

---Carl

by FreeBradshaw on Oct 16, 2009 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions

If i started Gaudin or Joba i’d have someone warming up in the pen in the first inning just to be ready…. theres no room to “settle down” later in the game. They would have to be on point from the first pitch… i don’t think either would be.

by Gangsta Yanksta on Oct 14, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions

CC At 70% Is Better Than Gaudin Or Joba At 100%

The best want the ball, and CC should get the ball 3 times in this series if necessary. Its crazy that this is even an issue.

by YankeesJets on Oct 15, 2009 8:17 AM EDT reply actions

Yankee Rotation for ALCS and hopefuly WS

I agree with the last two guys, however, they are on the right track, I would use a combinaiton of Gaudin, Joba and Hughes. Between the three of them (given that they are all up to the task) give them three innings each. Joe still has a stron relief staff that he could thrown in there if one of them faulter from Aceves to Robertson. The first three are starters and he should mix it up and make LA figure how to handle that rotation.

by Victor C on Oct 15, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions