Yankees vs Angles; Is it a coin toss?

by Cbeck3 on Oct 13, 2009 7:53 PM EDT

It's hard to figure out what to say about the series. I can think of a number of ways to approach this statistically. The one I like best is quite simple. I normalise the team's winning percentage to approximate an estimated probability that the Yanks win a particular game. I estimate each game is .515 that the Yanks win. .485 the Angels win. This would give an estimated probability the Yanks win the series as .533 vs .467 the Angles win.

It would be much more work but perhaps more accurate to figure to probability of winning games started by the pitchers of a given day. I think I'll look for the data and if I can do it I'll post it if anyone's interesrted.

At anyrate here's the probability summary of the potential outcomes.

Yanks to Angels
4 to 0	4to 1	4 to 2	4 to 3	3 to 4	2 to 4	1 to 4	0 to 4
0.070	0.136	0.165	0.160	0.151	0.147	0.114	0.055
			0.533	0.467

So, my honest calculation is that this is a toss up. It is also true I do not believe this. If we played this series over and over I think we'd win two thirds.

So, here are the probable playoff starters and their team's records in their appearances this year.

Sabathia	22-11	0.666667
burnett	23-10	0.69697
Pettitte	21-11	0.65625
		0.673295


Lackey	14-13	0.518519
Kasmir	16-10	0.615385
Saunders	20-11	0.645161
Weaver	21-12	0.636364
		0.603857

Looking at the pitching matchups, I think the Yanks probability of winning a particular game rises to .527. The probability of winning the series increases to .559. Still pretty close to a tossup. I reallly like our chances in the CC vs Lackey. I think this is amplified by the fact this is likely to come up 3 times.

Go Yanks!

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Yankees have had a lot of success against Lackey in the past

and the Angels have had success against CC. Those matchups may not be the great pitchers duels we expect. However, CC is the ace. And I want him going 3 times in this series. I’m saying this right now. CC Sabathia will decide this series. If he wins, then the Yankees will win the series. If he loses, well then, just pray that every other pitcher has his best stuff, and that the Yankees know how to win in Anaheim.

CC is huge, especially if he goes 3 times. Can’t wait for game one.

by nyyrocks29 on Oct 13, 2009 9:55 PM EDT reply actions

Best method is to handicap each game based on who the actual starting pitchers are then plug the individual game win probabilities into a program that plays a seven game series a million times and see what it comes up with.

Vegas will usually be very close to the real actual odds. They may have a little bias in there as they try to split the pot evenly on both betting sides.

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 13, 2009 10:31 PM EDT reply actions

Vegas odds

Are not an attempt to calculate probabilities. They are an attempt to balance the betting. So they are an attempt to figure out what the ignorant masses think.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Oct 13, 2009 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

Casual bettors and action junkies alike, whether they know anything about baseball or not, will be favoring the Yankees due to the fact that they’re the more popular team.

by Scooby Snacks on Oct 13, 2009 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, that’s what I said in my post if you read it carefully. But still the Vegas lines are very accurate. There are some very bettors with sophisticated betting models funded by very large bankrolls. Vegas cannot just throw out any crappy line. Sure, they try to split the money on both sides, but only within reason. They have to protect themselves if they feel the “ignorant masses” are wrong. Vegas’ #1 priority is to “make money” and often times they can make the “most” money by not splitting the money.

And like I said you are much better off handicapping each game based on who the actual pitchers are likely to be, than to just assign some silly win probability to each and every game. You can’t just say the Yankees win probability is .537 for all seven games. That is unrealistic and incorrect. Handicap it. Atleast try to handicap each game, it’s more accurate than picking the .537 for every game!

vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 14, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions