Rays sign Pat Burrell

by acman319 on Jan 5, 2009 5:18 PM EST Comment 29 comments

What are your guys thoughts of the Rays' signing of Pat Burrell to a 2-year/$16 million deal today? I think, despite his age, if he plays like he did last year for Philadelphia, he will definitely makes the Rays a better team. It might make the AL East a battle between New York and Tampa and put Boston third. The competition has definitely gotten better in the AL East and I think this division will continue to be the hardest one in baseball. Your thoughts?

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Once again

We’re going to have three good teams who are even better than last year, and only two will make the playoffs. It is going to depend on health more than ever. We’ve now all got solid rotations, and two of us have improved our lineups significantly (particularly the Yanks), and the Yanks have slightly improved our defense at 1B and RF.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 5, 2009 5:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Lineups

I wouldn’t say the Yankees improved their lineup significantly. Compare RF-CF-LF-1B:
2008: Abreu-Damon-Nady/Matsui-Giambi
2009: Nady-Cabrera/Gardner-Damon-Teixeira

Tex doesn’t make up for the loss of Giambi AND Abreu

p.s. did i get that 2008 part right?

by Schulz on Jan 5, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree. This lineup is far superior to last years. More versatile.
Better rotation. Burrell won’t make that much of a difference

by sdhman11 on Jan 5, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

Nick Swisher 06-07: .301 and .306 EQA

Abreu 08: .299

Jason Giambi 08: .308 EQA

if Swisher returns to his previous level, which given his age and last year’s context should happen, he’s right around Abreu / Giambi 08 level of effectiveness.

(btw, last year Teixiera’s EQA was .368)

I see Damon as the only guy who’s likely to decline compare to what we got last year from that position. RF is likely to remain similar if they play Swisher. there’s really no where to go but up in terms of CF and catcher (if only due to how insanely bad they were last year). Cano’s likely to rebound. and I feel that Jeter will as well (with the bat anyway, he actually had one of his best years as a gloveman last year) and it’s a odd year for Arod .

by RollingWave on Jan 6, 2009 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re

Idk what EQA is, you’re going to have to explain it before that first part makes sense to me.

You think CF will improve? Damon played well last year, and I don’t see Melky Cabrera matching that production. Nady and Swisher are pretty similar, but one of them is likely to be traded. Cano probably will improve but idk about Jeter. Yankee fans seem optimistic that he will remain consistant, while Red Sox fans are thinking that this may be the year that he starts a slow decline. Time will tell.

by Schulz on Jan 6, 2009 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

EQA is

A stat on baseball prospectus, basically it takes your ole OPS into account along with speed values such as stolen base, so its’ sort of taking OPS+speed value.

Damon played nearly the whole season in LF last year. the CF went mostly to Cabrera, and he was horrible even for his standard. CF will improve because if Cabrera is equally or worse than last year they’ll obviously move to plan B in a hurry. and it’s hard to really turn out worse than Cabrera’s 08 season no matter what the plan b c d is.

by RollingWave on Jan 7, 2009 10:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not exactly

Matsui has never played a single inning at 1B, for the Yankees at least. And Damon only played 34 games in center, all or almost all after we acquired Nady, so most of the year, it was still Abreu-Cabrera-Damon in the OF. Don’t forget, also, that while Abreu may be a better offensive OF, Nady is better defensively, so he could save us a few runs. And we’ll be using Swisher pretty frequently at all three OF positions if we don’t trade one of our corner OFs (if we do, he’ll play full-time).

Mike A. at River Ave. Blues used Bill James’ projections and some nifty software at FantasyPlayers.com to calculate that the 2009 Yanks’ lineup, with Swisher in center instead of Cabrera or Gardner, would score about 6 runs a game, versus about 4.8 in 2008. That’s almost 200 runs more over the whole season. Now, that’s projecting a lot more play by Posada and Matsui and slightly better seasons from A-Rod, Cano, and Jeter, but a significantly worse season from Damon and a slightly worse one from Nady (though that’s probably better for us since it’ll be over a whole season, and since he actually didn’t play as well for us as he did for Pittsburgh), so it’s not all Tex, but we almost certainly will have a lot better offense than in 2008.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 6, 2009 2:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

972 runs

would be more than any Yankee team has scored since the days of Mickey Mantle (I think). It is certainly more than they have scored at any time during the Jeter era. In fact only in 2007,2006 and 1998 did they surpass 900 runs. Thus, I highly doubt Mike’s claim. Don’t get me wrong, this is a very potent offense, but there are questions at nearly every position save 1st and 3rd w/regard to production moving forward. In particular age and health (Matsui, Jeter, Damon and in particular Posada, who is coming off of surgery and is ancient for a catcher anyway). Cano will likely bounce back a bit, but to be honest he has never been as productive as people think (inflated RF power in Yankee Stadium+low relative OBP) while there has been talk (especially from Keith Law) that despite his youth, Swisher’s bat speed has somehow greatly decreased. I think some of these question marks will be positive responders, but you cannot count on all of it. I think 830-900 runs (an upgrade of 50-120) runs seems more reasonable.

by Buzzy on Jan 6, 2009 9:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Scoring

“Thus, I highly doubt Mike’s claim.”

It’s not him you should doubt; it’s the projections and software formula, if anything. He simply plugged it all in.

“Cano…has never been as productive as people think”

I’d say a career average (which includes last year’s serious down year and the 2006 and 2007 career years (.342 BA in 2006, 97 RBI in 2007) but which averages out to about his production in his other two years) of 16 HR, 77 RBI, and .303-.335-.468 is pretty productive for a 2B.

“Swisher’s bat speed has somehow greatly decreased”

It may have, which could be part of the reason his BA is down from what is already an average to slightly above-average BA anyway, but his career-average OBP is .354 and was as high as .381 in 2007. He’s the patient guy at the plate we like. He also averages 26 HRs with only about 450-550 ABs per year, which is not full-time (and he won’t play full-time for us either).

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 6, 2009 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:Scoring

I agree with all of your points. It is not just the projections, but the fact that the projections married with the analysis assume complete health. As for Cano, I suppose I only mean that I think he is what his career OPS+ says-109. Certainly an effective 2b from the plate for sure, but not a 19HR/342 guy. As for Swisher, I never take these claims of “bat speed” seriously; they always say that about guys who had bad years (The same was said about Lowell before 2006 and he was really good in 2006/2007). It was a very good signing.

by Buzzy on Jan 6, 2009 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course

Of course the projections assume full health (or at least career-average health). You can’t predict injuries, who they’ll happen to, when they’ll happen, or how they’ll affect the player’s production or the team’s overall performance. But while injuries to players like Giambi, Matsui, Posada, Jeter, and Damon have been the norm in the last few years, you’d have to think it won’t hit us as badly as it did last year, especially at a key position like catcher.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 6, 2009 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't

so much worry about Posada’s health per se, I would worry if he can be an effective catcher. 38 and coming of significant surgery would make me worry if he can even get behind the plate. If not, it is sort of an overload at DH. I actually think this is perhaps the major question for the Yankees.

by Buzzy on Jan 6, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He won't turn 38 until August

You could be right about his ability to catch a lot of games, but thankfully we have a strong defensive backup in Molina, and if we have to rotate Matsui and Posada at DH now and then, so be it. And I think the reports from Posada’s throwing program are encouraging so far.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 6, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good points

from you and buzzy

by Schulz on Jan 6, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Burrell is a good add for the Rays. he is a good OPB guy who has power, and as long as he stays away from the field he improves the offense of a team that had no production from DH last year. I do think the Yankees improved the offense, but maybe not dramatically. If they play Swisher in the outfield (I know many here would not like to see Damon in CF, but actually Swisher is a plus in LF as opposed to CF) then I think the upgrade of Nady+Swisher+Posada+Teix-Melky(or Gardner)-Abreu-Giambi-Molina is a plus that puts them in the 830-900 run range, which would be a significant upgrade.

by Buzzy on Jan 5, 2009 8:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

burrel is good but he wont make that much of a significant difference to a mediocre offense

by jv52yankees on Jan 5, 2009 8:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

combine with

rebound from Crawford, and improvement from Upton / Longoria / Navarro though…

by RollingWave on Jan 6, 2009 12:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Burrell will make a differences

the Rays are no doubt a better team with him, can’t wait for the season to start. The AL East is the best.

by RayOfLight on Jan 5, 2009 8:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The

Rays scored as many runs last year as the Yankees did. You can talk about injuries to the Yankees, but the Rays 4 most important offensive players (Crawford, Upton, Longoria and Pena) all had injuries last year that were not trivial. I would not exactly call their offense mediocre. It is a base offense that even without Burrell would likely score in the low 800’s when healthy.

by Buzzy on Jan 5, 2009 8:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

good pick up for the rays

Pat the bat is a bad ass and I hate seeing him in the AL east. The guy can flat out rake and that’s the only thing the rays need him to do.

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby

by kdog on Jan 5, 2009 9:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

what

the yankees are way better than the rays buzzy, we had a lot of down years{cano,matsui,posada,and i expect a-rod to go back to his 40 and 125 with teixeira}and i absolutely think all of them will bounce back

by jv52yankees on Jan 5, 2009 10:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

OK

good to be positive!

by Buzzy on Jan 6, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here is what we all be complaining about in August

The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are all so much better than any team in the AL West that a serious injustice will be done when the Angels/A’s/Rangers (yes you read that right) make the playoffs and one of the AL East teams is sitting home. It is even likely that Toronto will be at least as good as the AL West champ.

by stusviews on Jan 6, 2009 9:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That was

already true last year. By pythagorean WL, the Angels “should” have been an 88 win team, so even last year, in a rational sense, Toronto was better than LAA (and the Rays, for that matter). The west is a joke, and the central is not so consistently strong either, but more talent there. I think the As might even take the west this year.

by Buzzy on Jan 6, 2009 11:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

what is it

about baseball and football that the West Coast teams suck?

by Travis G on Jan 7, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They do have the best NBA teams

Though this year there are six Western Conference teams worse than the second-worst Eastern team (my Bobcats). The West has a lot of good teams at the top, while after the top 5 in the East, there’s a huge stream of mediocre teams in parity.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 8, 2009 3:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Abreu

Kind of off-topic, but what is the deal with the market for Bobby Abreu? The hits .300-30-100 every year! A year or two ago teams would be all over this guy. However, the Phillies, Cubs, Rays, and A’s have all found their power bats. What’s next for Bobby?

by Schulz on Jan 6, 2009 1:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I bet he lands with the Dodgers or Giants

Manny will go to the other team. I think Torre wouldn’t mind plugging him into RF with Ethier in LF and Kemp in CF. That would be a strong OF offensively. I think a lot of teams are hesitant about Abreu because of his defense and his contract demands, which were greater than those for Bradley and Burrell.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 6, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs