Phil Hughes thoughts

by Travis G on Jan 5, 2009 1:29 PM EST in Analysis Comment 20 comments

I've been a fan of Hughes' since seeing some youtube video of him in the summer of 2006. That was his best year as a pro: he quickly ascended to Trenton and destroyed the Eastern League as a 20-year-old. He was better than Clay Buchholz at a younger age. He's given up just eight home-runs in 310 minor league innings with a .92 WHIP and only six hits/9 innings.

We've also seen flashes of brilliance in the majors, namely 5/1/07 in Texas, 8/10/07 in Cleveland, 9/27/07 in Tampa, 10/7/07 in New York, and 9/24/08 in Toronto.

His fastball velocity has been closer to 90-92 than the 95 we were often told about. His velocity has been debated to death, almost as much as Joba's role. I believe when he's 'right', Hughes sits 92-94, which is corroborated by several sources, most importantly Hughes himself. That he hasn't been in that range consistently could be due to one major reason: his injuries. Not only have they robbed him of velocity (most notably the broken rib in early 2008), but they've robbed him of those hot mid-summer games when pitchers typically throw hardest. In 2007 he pulled his hamstring in May and didn't return until August. In 2008 he went out with a broken rib in April and didn't return until September.

Partly because of that, one recurring thought I've had is that he, not Joba, may be the eventual successor to Mariano. Here are the reasons why it could happen:

1. He seems to lose his velocity rather quickly. While he may reach 95 in the 1st inning, he's often down to 92 in the 4th, and 90 in the 6th. I could easily see him throwing 96 for 1-2 innings.

2. He has just two plus pitches (at the moment). His changeup is still about average, but his curve is plus-plus and his fastball (despite the belief of some) is plus - both in terms of velocity and command. To remain a starter, he needs to improve the changeup.

3. He's succumbed to more and longer injuries than Joba. Maybe a move to the pen would keep him healthier.

I'm not saying I want it to happen, just that it might.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on Hughes regarding 2009 and the long-term?

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Musings on Hughes ...

Work is slow today so a few thoughts on Hughes. First, I tend to agree with your assessment regarding his velocity—he does seem to lose his gas rather quickly. But as we all witnessed last season, velocity does not a successful pitcher make. Mike Mussina had arguably his finest season and probably never topped 91… and if he did, it was likely because he had a gas cramp on the mound.

Successful pitching begins and ends between the ears and behind the ribcage. While I certainly don’t expect Hughes to be as polished and knowledgeable as a Hall of Famer, I’m not certain he has the heart to be successful—especially in NYC.

As for his injuries—the hamstring and the rib, I think that was an executive decision not to rush their top prospect. I also believe the Yankees saw the injuries as an opportunity to give others a look, and help polish the kid to more of a finished product. Unfortunately, when he came back, his pitches looked even straighter than previous outings.

Take it from a former minor league pitcher, if your ball doesn’t move, it doesn’t matter how fast you throw it, major league hitters will greet it lustily.

I think this is a bigger Hughes issue than his health and velocity. It’s his lack of movement on his pitches. With the stuff that he has right now, he has little margin for error. But, given the additions of Sabathia, Burnett, who team with Wang and Joba, slotting Hughes in the five spot with his stuff, isn’t a bad thing. He’ll give the Yankees innings, and can hopefully work through some issues with Eiland while he’s winning and losing.

Finally, I’d like to talk briefly about Dave Eiland. I think he did a fabulous job with Mussina and the pen last season. Had Guidry been at the helm last season, I doubt Mussina breaks double-digit wins. And he certainly wouldn’t have a sub-3.00 era. If anyone can get Hughes on track and consistently winning in pinstripes, it will be Eiland. But, we need to be patient.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Jan 5, 2009 2:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Mussina is special

he’s a likely HOFer. i agree that velocity isnt everything, but it certainly helps. very few aces throw under 90. Maddux’s are few are far between.

the aces out there like Sabathia, Santana, Beckett, Lincecum, etc. all sit in the mid-low 90s. the faster you throw, the tougher you are to hit. that fact has been studied.

Hughes certainly CAN be a great pitcher, but i would be more encouraged with higher velocity.

by Travis G on Jan 5, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Movement over velocity ... everytime.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Jan 6, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Joba's FB

looks just as if not more straight to me.

but regardless, Hughes’ FB was so good that it allowed just 8 HR in 310 milb innings. it wasnt just velocity that keep the ball in the park. even though its the minors, that’s sick.

and i would say command over velocity or movement… every time.

by Travis G on Jan 6, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Finally ...

Command+Movement+Velocity+Heart=winner

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Jan 6, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The fastball velocity

is not a concern, as long as he can locate it well. I think his 2 1/2 pitches are the main concern here, seeing as a pitcher will have a very tough time becoming successful with 2 good pitches. Exactly as Ronster22 said, a full season in the bigs with Dave Eiland might just work out the tweaks, and he does have some good pitchers to talk to. And slowing down his pitches 5mph isn’t that uncommon I think, but he’ll need more pitches to compliment a 90mph fastball. And I don’t think that having a couple of injuries means you’re injury prone (I would actually call Joba more of an issue with his medical record). He broke a rib (freak injury), found out his eyesight was bad (though he could’ve noticed that earlier), and pulled a hamstring, something that can happen to any pitcher.

I think it might be a while before the Yanks give up on Hughes and move him to the pen, just because, as many people advocate in the Joba debate, having 6 good innings is better than 1-2 good innings.

by moose35 on Jan 5, 2009 3:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why not the pen?

What the heck, give him a try out of the pen. Two pitches is common place for a reliever (prefered I think), maybe there he can flourish and win the hearts of the fans like Joba did.

by ilBrutto on Jan 5, 2009 4:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Because...

…if we use him out of the pen for a season, it puts him off track developing as a starter. Same with Joba.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 5, 2009 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A reason why we wont use Phil or Joba in the pen

The Yankees have alot of young power arms in the Minors, guys that cant start dude to injuries or just lack of skill to go more than 2 innings. Guys like Mark Melacon,Humberto Sanchez and other guys can take over the role. Also, as proven by the Mets this off season, it isn’t impossible to find a good closer. (They got J.J. Putz and K-Rod)

"Hey Derek do you actually drive the Edge?","I don't drive that piece of crap!"

by Da Shiz on Jan 5, 2009 6:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

agree

Relievers aren’t hard to find. Just throw a few arms out there and see which ones gets results. Closers are over priced and baloney. Mariano Rivera being the exception ( though he isn’t worth 15 million). As i read Moneyball for the third time I’m a firm believer in the “Sell the Closer” approach. I would love after MO retires to but a young arm in there pump up his value and send him on his way for some prospects.
But before i get too far off topic. Hughes has the potential to become a solid number two starter if he could stay healthy. He seemed to have figured something out this fall. Lets let him be at the back of the rotation this year, He could be a lot cheaper than Brad Penny’s 5 mil for the Red Sox

by sdhman11 on Jan 5, 2009 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

look

i dont want Hughes in the pen. i’m just saying it could become a possibility if he cant stay healthy. he’s already missed the lion’s share of two important developmental years. how many more injuries will it take before they think about moving him to the pen? (that’s a rhetorical question.)

by Travis G on Jan 5, 2009 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok fair enough

just wanted to bring that topic up. (that realivers arn’t that hard to find.)

"Hey Derek do you actually drive the Edge?","I don't drive that piece of crap!"

by Da Shiz on Jan 6, 2009 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

although i do think phil hughes could be good,i would rather have a ben sheets who is an ace be our #4 than phil hughes. with a rotation of cc,a.j,wang,sheets and joba why not put phil as our #6 when one of our starters are injured. sheets could probably be had at 2 years and 30 million.

by jv52yankees on Jan 5, 2009 8:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs