yankees still 3rd in the al east?-I say no

by jv52yankees on Jan 4, 2009 4:06 AM EST

I've been hearing alot of analysts saying the yankees are going to finish second at best in the al east. they think either the rays or the sox will beat us out. i think we will win for many reasons.

Yankees-They are going to win for these 3 reasons:

1. Additions- We have been the most active team obviously.We have signed the three best free agents available. With Sabathia,Wang,Burnett,Pettite{he will sign eventually because with so many pitchers available he will get nothing more than what the yankees 1-10 M offered.}and chamberlain we have the best rotation in the al east in my opinion{yes,even better than the sox's beckett,lester,matsuzaka,wakefield,penny and the rays kazmir,shields,sonnastine,price,garza.With teixeira that gives us a lineup of damon{LF},jeter{SS},teixeira{1B},a-rod{3B},posada{C},nady{RF},matsui{DH},swisher{CF},cano{2B}.THAT is the best lineup in the al east.To go with a good bull pen we are DANGEROUS!!! I expect us to win 98-100 games this year.

2. What's bad about the rays and red sox-The rays basically just snuck up on teams last year.They're not going to do that this year. They won 97 games last year. I expect that to drop to 92 or 94 wins. For the red sox they didnt get any better. All they did was get a washed-up brad penny. I say the yankees got 8 or 10 wins better.

3. We're the Yankees- If something doesn't go as planned we could always make a trade. I do expect everything to go pretty smoothly, but hey, if it doesn't we could make a move.

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I don't know

I don’t think we’re 3rd in the East, but we’re definitely not a lot better than the Rays and the Red Sox. We all have excellent pitching staffs (I’m not too sure that we have the best one, even with CC and AJ, but we sure have an excellent one). If you take a look at offense, we probably have the best offense, because the Red Sox stayed mostly healthy last season, and they didn’t get any younger (neither did we, but Cano is bound to rebound, A-Rod and Tex will be great). It’s going to be very, very close.

by moose35 on Jan 4, 2009 7:54 AM EST reply actions

All teams are very good.

It’s going to come down to who stays healthy. If one of the front three pitchers in any of these rotations goes down with a significant injury, that team will finish third in the East. And for the record, the Red Sox were not as healthy as you might think last season. Ortiz’s wrist plagued him all season, and Lowell’s hip put him out for a while. Lowrie also played through a nagging wrist injury.

Anyways, I could see any of the three teams finishing third.
I think the Rays have the fewest question marks overall, but we’ll see if the individuals can play at the level they did last year. If the young guys continue to improve, and Price is a force in the rotation, the Rays win the East.
The Red Sox have health questions for players including Beckett, Lowell, and Ortiz. We also wonder whether Lowrie, and Ellsbury will improve, and whether Lester, Pedroia, Youk, and Drew will continue to produce the way they did in 2008. If guys stay healthy and produce to their potential, the Sox win the East.
You already know what I’m going to say about the Yankees. Will Sabathia’s workload come back to haunt him? Will A.J.’s injury history rear its ugly head? Will aging players stay healthy (Posada, Jeter)? Will Joba/Hughes thrive in the rotation? If the Yankees rotation is as dominant as it can be, and if the offense is more productive than last year (even with the loss of Abreu and Giambi), the Yankees win the East.

As I said above, all three teams have issues and strengths. If each team stays healthy and productive, this is going to be one hell of a three-way race for the division title. At least I can say this; two of the Sox, Yanks, and Rays will make the playoffs. (IMO, these are three of the top 5-6 teams in baseball).

by Schulz on Jan 4, 2009 1:16 PM EST reply actions

Yes

I agree that this is going to be a very competitive division and health will (as usual) play a big part. Just two things I wanted to echo:
1)The Rays were no fluke-you could argue that they underperformed offensively (Upton was hurt, Longoria was hurt, Pena was hurt) and we saw what Uption/Longoria can do in the playoffs. Price will reinforce an already strong rotation. The only issue is bullpen regression (or not) which is hard to predict.
2)Actually the Sox were quite injured both offensively and pitching-wise. Ortiz, Lowell and Drew each missed @40 games, and in the case of both Lowell and Ortiz, came back and played at less than 100%. The Yankees major injuries were Posada (100 games) and Matsui (about 50 games). You could easily argue that the Sox had it worse in this regard (both teams had others injured that played hurt). Correct me if I am wrong here. I think one distinction last year was that the Sox were deeper, which made absorbing injuries easier. This year, I would argue that the Yankees may be deeper.

I think the Rays have the best chance of staying healthy (younger team). If AJ and Joba stay healthy, and the aging players can stay healthy and perform (Posada, Rivera, Damon, Jeter) then I would give the Yankees the slight edge overall. However, this is a big if. I think this will be a great and competitive year.

by Buzzy on Jan 4, 2009 9:34 PM EST reply actions

You forget...

On top of Wang, who jswaa mentioned below, ARod and Joba were each on the DL for 15 days. You guys were lucky in that your starting rotation was largely solid and uninjured throughout the season. We lost our catcher and then #1 starter for almost the entire season, and for most of the season, 2/5 and up to 3/5 our our rotation consisted of some combination of Darrell Rasner, Sidney Ponson, Carl Pavano, and Alfredo Aceves. I think that takes the cake.

We may be deeper this year (though I think both of our benches have yet to be settled). I’m only worried now about two things: 1.) re-signing Pettitte or making sure we’ll be OK with a combination of Hughes and Aceves at #4 (and then one of the two or some other minor-leaguer making 8-10 starts at #5) and 2.) signing a utility infielder with speed and strong defense. A third desire that isn’t really a worry is signing a short-term center fielder like Gabe Kapler or Rocco Baldelli (who you guys are also looking at for your fourth outfielder) or trading for David DeJesus.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 5, 2009 3:52 AM EST up reply actions

I was

talking about offense since the it was a comment on the Sox lineup. Actually the Sox pitching injuries were, in a sense, worse than the Yankees:
1)Schilling was resigned and had pitched well in 07 (150 innings/3.9ERA, low WHIP), but went down for good just as spring training started. He was supposed to be the Sox #3.
2)The Sox scrambled, and signed Colon who was pitching quite well but also went down with a freak injury (if you can call a fat guy hurting his back on a swing in an interleague game a freak injury).
3)Beckett was on the DL twice, and would have been a third time, but the playoffs were starting. It was clear he was not healthy in the playoffs as his velocity was down by at least 4MPH.
4)DiceK missed a month on the DL, and Wakefield was on the DL once.
So, basically the Sox lost their number three just before the season started, then had all pitchers except Lester spend at least on stint on the DL. On paper, that is more innings lost than the Yankees.

I think this points out the issue of depth, which I tried to say before with regard to Pettite. Yes, Wang’s injury was a tragic freak thing, but the Yankees last year went started the season thin anyway. They were going to rely on 2 rookie pitchers, and Joba in the BP. I think they are in a much better position now, even with the health concerns of AJ/Joba, due to CC, the likely maturation of Hughes and the posibility of quality innings from others (Aceves, etc). But I think Pettite is a must for depth.

So bas

by Buzzy on Jan 5, 2009 9:50 AM EST up reply actions

Don't forget

that Wang was injured in a freak occurrence and having him as a No. 2/3 starter means 19 wins should be expected yet again. With him last year, we may have even made the playoffs.