Once again, The Joba Debate

by Travis G on Jan 2, 2009 8:04 PM EST in Analysis Comment 15 comments

Brought to you by Justin Sablich of the Times -

If you don't know my position, it's thus: Joba has to be given a fair chance to succeed as a starter before Cash and Co. even think about putting him in the pen. That means at least through the 2010 season.

Justin feels Joba should be a reliever. I vehemently disagree. So let's refute each point one by one:

A Chamberlain bridge would make life easier for Rivera, who turned 39 in November and may not be able to crank out a two-inning save with as much ease as in the past.

If Justin didn't notice, the Yanks' bullpen was actually great last year (4th in all MLB) without Joba for five months; Rivera pitched his fewest innings since his injujry shortened 2002 and had his best ERA+ ever. Maybe now that Torre has gone to Hollywood, our relievers won't be abused.

His numbers as a starter last season (2.75 ERA and 10.3 K/9) were almost identical to his stats as a reliever (2.31 ERA and 11.1 K/9). But his shoulder injury came about as a starter, and fewer innings could only help him keep his shoulder strong.

Yes, it's possible Joba would remain healthier as a reliever, but we have far too little information to base that on. One injury on a 100-degree night in Texas (when a pitcher is more susceptible to tendinitis) doesn't mean he's incapable of shouldering (no pun intended) a starter's workload.

A popular argument for having Chamberlain start is that you should not waste a player with such ability as a reliever because the more innings he can pitch the better. Wouldn’t you rather have 230 innings of Chamberlain rather than 90?

The problem with that argument is that you can say the same thing about Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon or a number of other great relievers. Are the Red Sox wasting Papelbon’s talent by limiting his innings and not converting him back to a starter?

Again, yes, you would definitely rather have 230 innings than 90 (which is overly optimistic for a reliever).

Regarding the Papelbon argument, the reason he doesn't start is that he doesn't have the repertoire or pedigree of Joba, and has already proven he can't handle the workload.

If the Yankees used Chamberlain to shorten games to six innings, is that really a waste of talent? It sounds more like an incredible advantage to me.

Yes, it's a waste of talent. First off, this argument has two huge holes because it assumes that 1) the starter is good enough to pitch six innings and the Yankees have a lead, and 2) that Joba can pitch two innings that often.

Anyway, it's fun to debate.

- Elsewhere, the Yankees are sending five instructional coaches to Taiwan to teach high-schoolers the basics of baseball. They have a huge following there thanks to Chien Ming-Wang.

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starter

Hes a starter. People were in love with him as a reliever. Relievers can be anybody. Relievers have one maybe two pitches. Joba has four pitches. He has the potential as we saw last season to be an ace. Hes a starter stop arguing about it

by sdhman11 on Jan 2, 2009 8:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yes

this is the dumbest debate in baseball. Quality starter >> quality reliever. It is just simple math. People seem to be drawn in by the emotional aspect of the close/tight game late, and don’t understand that a game can be won or lost in any inning. Look at it this way, you can get a starter who goes out every 5th game with an advantage over his rival, or a guy who maybe pitches 10-15 high leverage innings the whole season. While the Yankees bullpen will not likely be as good as it was last year, last year they carried a temendous 40% of the total innings pitched. They should and will not do that this year, and one reason is deeper starting pitching. As for Papelbon, I would have liked to see the experiment at least. He did pitch well in the few starts he had in 2005. He actually has 3 pitches-fastball, splitter and change, but he definitely does not have the stuff that Chamberlain has. And yes, there is very little correlation between quality of closer and success of team.

by Buzzy on Jan 2, 2009 9:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The fact that

a game can be won or lost in innings other than the 8th or 9th is a fact that is continuously lost on all mainstream media. Arod is ridiculed as king of the 3rd inning homerun as if a homer in the 3rd inning is worth less than one in the 8th or 9th. I’m wondering why people aren’t yammering for David Price to become the Rays closer of the future? As for papelbon they tried him as a starter but he succumbed to the dreaded elbow soreness which led to his permanent move to the pen.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Jan 2, 2009 11:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And

Papelbon publicly campaigned to be the closer. The 9th inning is a different spotlight, and he wanted it.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Jan 3, 2009 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A lot of teams

have good closers but a terrible record (or at least a record that you might think is better if they have a lights out closer)-Mariners, Mets for example. The Mets had sub-par starters, the reason for their bad placing in the NL East, not because Wagner was bad (I’m talking about before Wagner got injured).

And it obviously takes more to become a starter, as opposed to a reliever (taking nothing from Mo and Francisco Rodriguez, neither would make very good starters)-durability, wide arsenals of pitches.
The argument, I think, is that Joba has shown he is electric and lights out when coming from the bullpen. But he has also shown that he is very good as a starter. Having one shutout inning or 6-7 of 2-3 run ball (something he did often as a starter)? I’d take the latter.

by moose35 on Jan 3, 2009 4:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

the Mo-Wetteland combo

truly spoiled people, and was a very different scenario than the current one –

1. the reason it was effective was that the Yanks often HAD A LEAD after 6 innings. of Mo’s 61 games in 1996, only 10 were with the Yanks losing (8 tied, 43 winning).
2. Wetteland, if he were to be remembered correctly, was a ‘heart-attack-in-a-basket’, so the Yanks felt comfortable letting him walk away. He was never as dominant as Mo. iow, the ‘06 duo was not the end-all-be-all. it wouldn’t be remembered so fondly if the Yanks hadn’t won the Series or if Mo didn’t go on to become a HOFer.
3. Mo debuted at the ripe age of 25, and never succeeded as a starter (5.94 ERA in 50 ip). Joba debuted at 22 and immediately succeeded as a starter (2.76 ERA).

If there’s anything that should convince you to keep Joba a starter, it’s the fact that Red Sox fans would love to see him be ‘only’ a reliever.

by Travis G on Jan 3, 2009 10:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I want to hammer-punch anyone who says to put him in the bullpen. The reasoning for all of it makes no justifiable sense.

Coming out of the ‘pen he’d only have an impact in games the Yankees are already leading, meaning other starters have to get him there first – something that always ends up being a huge risk.

As a starter, he can make sure the other team doesn’t get to bring the bullpen into play by shutting them down for six, seven, eight innings. Whatever.

Give me Joba every five games or give me death.

Gross Misconduct with Hockey Joe

by HockeyJoe on Jan 4, 2009 1:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ben K. at River Ave. Blues has the best refutation of Sablich’s tripe that I’ve seen.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 4, 2009 1:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rotation, Rotation, Rotation!

The whole Joba starter/reliever debate is like stepping over a dollar to get to a dime.

When he came out the bullpen a couple of seasons ago because he looked so nasty as a reliever people were drooling all over themselves and righty so, but I think Joba would have more of an impact in the rotation than he would coming out the pen.

by 225Fan on Jan 4, 2009 10:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Simply in the hopes of bringing Anaconda out of retirement,

I’ll bite.

Okay, Joba’s a starter. For now. But…

Here’s a given: Innings caps will push Joba back to the bullpen at the end of the season. Let’s say then that he is again, lights out. Let’s say he was performing as a solid # 4 before he got sent back to the bullpen. And let’s say that the Yanks dominate in Sept and Oct with Joba as Mo to Mo’s Wetteland.

Before everybody starts talking about how nobody in their right mind would honestly consider 70 IP > 200 IP, let’s remember: The Yankees have three potential aces that could very well leave Joba as a # 4 for another couple years: CCS, AJB and CMW. If Pettite or whoever plays well, Joba could be # 5 in 2009, simply by virtue of his innings cap.

Now — after the buzz of shutting down innings 6 & 7 in September and October, is any self-respecting competitor not going to have a long, deep think about spending another year or two as an apprentice?

If Joba dominates as a starter, it’s an easier question, I’d guess. But if he’s a 3.0 ERA # 4, then I think all bets are off.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Jan 4, 2009 11:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

A few things

Anaconda himself pointed this out to me in another thread, I believe; or maybe it was Jscape. Cash has said Joba will be a starter all season, as the #5. He’ll just have some starts skipped and filled in by our long man or a call-up from the minors. So, at this point, it doesn’t look like he’ll be put in the pen after his innings cap. It looks instead like they’re going to try to stretch out his innings over the whole season. Maybe they’ll put him in the pen for the postseason if we get Andy back and can use CC, Wang, Burnett, and Andy as our rotation. Might as well, I say; with the expanded roster and the need to get solid pitching in every possible inning, why not utilize his lockdown arm in case our starter can’t make it five innings or if we have a tight game we don’t want to trust our other relievers to? But, for the regular season at least, it doesn’t look like we’ll see Joba setting up Mo.

Another thing: why in the world would a 3.00 ERA make anyone wonder whether Joba should continue starting? He had a 2.60 ERA in 12 starts last season, which was phenomenal, but if he can have a 3.00 ERA in his second season starting in the majors (making probably 20-22 starts this time), that would be a Godsend. Do you realize how few starting pitchers have ERAs that low? Here’s how few: in 2008, only 10 starters who pitched 100 innings or more, including Joba, had ERAs below 3.00. Here’s the company he’s among: Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Jake Peavy, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Rich Harden, and Justin Duchscherer. They’re pretty crappy starters, huh? Probably should shift them to the pen to make the game shorter for K-Rod, Mo, B.J. Ryan, Brian Fuentes, Brian Wilson, JPap, et al.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Jan 5, 2009 3:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More Joba

It’s good to see you back and raising hell LIF – even if it is about a topic we’ve beaten to death for two years.

It was me who mentioned a week ago to Swanky about Joba’s role for the entire 2009 season is in the rotation. Cashman said so on WFAN after he was resigned to his three-year extension.

Kat O’Brien got confirmation from Cashman himself on October 1st:

As some of you noted, Brian Cashman said on WFAN that they plan for Joba Chamberlain to be a starter all next season. He confirmed that to me in an email. If health is not a concern, they want Joba in the rotation.

Here’s the link to that aforementioned interview with Francesa.

I’m as adamant about Joba in the rotation as I’ve ever been and there’s no doubt in my mind that is where he needs to be. Obviously, we’ve never agreed on this issue.

Thanks for bringing me “out of retirement.” Good to have you back.

by anaconda on Jan 5, 2009 6:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i hope Cash was truthful

but Mr. ‘Bubba Crosby will be our starting CFer’ has been known to fib.

by Travis G on Jan 5, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You'll be surprised to learn

that I actually think Joba belongs in the rotation. I think he’ll be great there. My post was largely reading tea leaves, not suggesting a preferred course. Whatever Cashman says now, Joba will likely be in the pen in September and October if the Yankees are making a playoff run. A # 5 becomes pretty incidental in the playoffs, and if the Yanks are closing on a playoff spot in September (and unless there’s a lights out 7/8th inning guy that emerges), Joba will return to setup man for a month or 2, depending on how far the Yanks go.

And that then kicks into gear my scenario, which is solely a prediction. I may predict that the economy is going to suck for awhile, but that’s not the same as advocating that it suck.

;)

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Jan 6, 2009 11:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs