This is why we want to gives Hughes & IPK a fair shot
by 3460kuri on Sep 30, 2008 9:20 AM EDT
28 comments
Cardinals flush $41 million down the toilet
Similar to the Kris Benson signing a few years ago, this sets a very high bar for some very mediocre players. This guy wasn't even a free agent yet!
This morning, Derek Lowe, Ben Sheets, and AJ Burnett are the three happiest guys on the earth. I don't think this guy is even as good as Pavano was before signing with the Yankees......
I'd rather gamble on Hughes/IPK over the next 4 years than gamble on any free agent not named CC....
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coke
Why isn’t anyone discussing Phil Coke as a starter? He has top of the rotation stuff, poise, and velocity (a la Jon Lester). Any 26 yr. old LHP who works quickly, stays ahead in the count, and throws 95+ while keeping batters uncomfortable should be seriously considered for the rotation. Was he or was he not a starter in the minors?
While I still believe in Hughes, we shouldn’t pencil him in the rotation until he proves he can give us 25-30 starts, w/ 180+ innings, and an ERA lower than 4.2. He’s only 22 and will continue to improve. I would look at him as a spot starter / long reliever going into the season. We need to go into ST w/ 6 or 7 starters, because 2 guys will miss significant time over the course of a season and we don’t need any more seasons of combing the waiver wires for Sidney Ponson to be our #3 starter.
by mitch684 on Sep 30, 2008 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Coke
According to Kieth Law, Jim Callis, and John Manuel (all of the scouting types from whom I’ve read an opinion on the subject), Phil Coke has very little rotation ability. I’ve been hard put to get a good explanation out of them, but they all seem to dismiss the idea.
by rory_sayer on Sep 30, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a start
Coke is a 26 yr old lefty who was pitching in Trenton just a couple of months ago and just made his major league debut.
It’s probably not an accident that he has been overlooked within the organization.
He’s a guy who I think would probably benefit by staying in the bullpen. His stuff will be sharper and won’t be exposed to lineups turning over and getting second and third looks at him.
We should also be careful about evaluating talents in September.
by anaconda on Sep 30, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn’t he a starting pitcher in Trenton just a few months ago? That was actually a question. Also, I’m guessing you’re implying September evaluations can be tricky because of Hughes & Kennedy in ‘07. A good point, to be sure, but you can’t deny that Coke was A LOT more impressive in a small sample of outings than IPK & Hughes. Our bullpen was good enough before Coke arrived, but what we need are starters. CMW is the only guarantee we have going into next season so far and he’s hit the DL each of the past 2 seasons.
As for him being intentionally passed over within the organization, he’s only 26. How many starters have we seen over time that didn’t hit their stride until their mid-20’s?
by mitch684 on Sep 30, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It had nothing to do with Hughes or Kennedy last season
It’s just a general rule of thumb used by all teams regarding young players.
And I’d argue that Kennedy and Hughes were both outstanding in September last season, which is primarily why Cashman gambled and gave them jobs in the rotation in April. Hughes also pitched extremely well in the postseason and earned a well deserved win.
I’m not discounting Coke. But we cannot overlook that the guy is 26 years old and just made his debut a month ago. And considering that he’s got more value than pitchers with similar stuff simply because he throws with his left hand – you have to wonder why he’s never been considered a big prospect within the organization.
Hey, I hope he comes back next season and pitches lights out again. I’m just not counting on him just yet.
by anaconda on Sep 30, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe if Cashman would have looked at Kennedy's
stuff rather than base his opinion on 19 innings including two of the worst teams in baseball in the Royals and Rays and a very bad Blue Jay lineup.
by TheTruth08 on Sep 30, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hughes
As I posted in another thread….
"Plenty of good pitchers have had lousy seasons to start their careers. It’s quite common, actually…..
Randy Johnson – 4.28 ERA, 1.51 WHIP (in 1989, when offense was much less)
Johan Santana – 6.49 ERA, 1.81 WHIP
Roy Halladay – 10.64 ERA, 2.20 WHIP!!!
Greg Maddux – 5.61 ERA, 1.63 WHIP
John Lester – 4.76 ERA, 1.64 WHIP
Mariano Rivera – 5.51 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
Not saying that Hughes or Kennedy will turn out to be as good as any of these guys were, but you can’t deny that there is some talent there. Hughes has 106 innings and Kennedy has 57, let’s just give it a little more time before we throw them off the bus."
by 3460kuri on Sep 30, 2008 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
EH!
Nobody’s throwing them off the bus.
We’re also not putting them in the rotation without backup.
They may each become good big league pitchers. They may even do it in 2009. However , if 2008 taught me anything it’s this:
1) Don’t bet the year on rookie pitchers.
2) With injuries you can count on a significant number of starts from about 8 pitchers, min. You should have an idea who they are. I don’t want Ponson, Rasner, Aceves or Guise to be high on the list.
So I say start with Wang, Joba, Pettitte, FA, FA. Start with Hughes in the pen and IPK in Scranton unless they can beat someone pout in spring training.
Lohse had a nice year. Looks kind of like 10M per year to me.
Let’s not get too frantic here.
A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)
by Cbeck3 on Sep 30, 2008 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no matter what the rotation is, there NEEDS to be backup. not just for Hughes or IPK
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 30, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wait
what’s wrong with Aceves and Giese? they were quite good this year.
by Travis G on Sep 30, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weak stuff
A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)
by Cbeck3 on Sep 30, 2008 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe Giese
i thought Aceves’ stuff was quite good. better than i expected. from MiLB reports, i thought he threw high 80s, but was very pleasantly surprised to see him hit 94 several times in his first game. he throws about 5 different pitches and commands them all.
by Travis G on Oct 1, 2008 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stadium gun is juiced
I don’t think Aceves is a better prospect than IPK. Actually I don’t think he’s as good.
We’ll see.
A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)
by Cbeck3 on Oct 2, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, i agree about the Stadium gun
but MLB Gameday seems very accurate and fair. here are velocity graphs from his last 2 starts and his first appearance (when he hit 94 several times):
9/20
8/31
by Travis G on Oct 2, 2008 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cool stats Thanks
I do like him better than Rasner, Guise, etc.etc.
I also like his story.
I just do not want to repeat last years mistake of thinking this easily projects to 150 innings of league average. He’s young, he needs to make adjustments. We need to find out what we’ve got.
He doesn’t seem to have the raw talent of Hughes or Joba.
A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)
by Cbeck3 on Oct 3, 2008 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"He doesn’t seem to have the raw talent of Hughes or Joba"
definitely wouldn’t argue that.
by Travis G on Oct 3, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only way young players develop
is by pitching in the big leagues.
by 3460kuri on Sep 30, 2008 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Taking that point a step further, Hughes and IPK have both already proven that they are better than AAA.
The only thing that remains to be determined is whether they belong in “Quadruple A” or in the bigs.
The only way to find that out is to send them out to play in the bigs.
by losjanks on Sep 30, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We can't
Go into 2009 with unproven rookies in the rotation, period. We made that mistake last season. Make the young guys earn their stripes in the pen and move them over accordingly. I see both sides of the Coke thing, but in my years as a player, and now a coach, a starter is always, always more valuable to a team than a reliever. I’m not certain Coke has the stuff to turn a lineup over three times, but with Pettitte likely gone, I’d like to see him given the chance next Spring.
Lefties are tough to come by. Lefty starters are even more rare. Give the kid a chance and if it doesn’t pan out, we have a quality lefty in the pen.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on Sep 30, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah, the question is
do we pick up Marte’s option ($6 mil) or let Coke have the lefty reliever spot? are you that confident in Coke (after just 14 ip) to allow Marte (who’s proven himself over 500 ip) to leave? i personally am not sure.
i have no problem giving spots to IPK and Hughes, as long as they outperform their competitors in ST. they shouldn’t simply be handed rotation spots, it should be a competition, and they’ll have to compete against Aceves, Coke, Rasner, Giese and others.
by Travis G on Sep 30, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point you're missing:
The Yankees need a starting rotation for 2009, and if Hughes and Kennedy are not a part of it, somebody else will have to be.
Obviously CC Sabatthia is the best pitcher on the market, and while he carries some risk, he may be worth it.
The Yankees could pursue Ben Sheets, AJ Burnett, Ryan Dempster, or Oliver Perez in free agency, however, since Kyle Lohse just signed for 4 years, $41 million, and he’s a lesser pitcher than any of them, you can expect the bidding to start at 5 years and $50-$60 million for any of those guys, even though each of them carries a long history of injury and/or inconsistency.
The Yankees could also pursue lesser talents. There are salary dumps to be had (Jarrod Washborn, Gil Meche, Barry Zito), or they can lean on the trio of Pavano, Rasner, and Ponson like they did this season.
We have to consider the real world when making roster projections for 2009. As Baseball Prospectus says, the Yankees need to find a way to take advantage of their unparalleled financial assets without making the kinds of mistakes that can hamper a team for years.
We may be able to sign Pettitte and/or Mussina for 2009, but at some point we will have to move on regardless.
I’m assuming that in 2009 we’ll get a full season out of Wang and Joba in the rotation, and we’ll also make a run at Sabatthia. So as far as Hughes and Kennedy go in the 2009 rotation, I’ll say this: our other options are either short term solutions (Mussina & Pettitte), overpriced, incosistent and injury prone (Burnett, Sheets, et al), expensive and horrible (Washburn, Pavano) or cheap and horrible (Ponson, Rasner). I would rather give Hughes and Kennedy another shot than spend the money on mediocrity or the “proven veterans” who stink.
by 3460kuri on Sep 30, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Coke
some guys, especially southpaws, dont ‘get it’ until their mid-late 20s. Guidry and RJ are great examples.
by Travis G on Sep 30, 2008 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Coke in the same breath
as Randy Johnson who always threw in the mid to upper 90’s when he struggled for many years. Great comparison.
by TheTruth08 on Sep 30, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps not a great comparison ...
But Travis is correct. Guidry was an even better example. He was essentially a two -pitch pitcher who floundered and even considered going home to Louisiana before being given a chance.
I’m not sure Coke is the answer, but scouts can’t predict what’s in a guys heart. Coke should be given a chance to start in SP, and yes, I’d pick up Marte because you can never have enough lefty pitching in my opinion (of course I was and still am a lefty).
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on Oct 1, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phil Coke throws in the mid 90s
you clearly didn’t understand my point. i never said Coke would be as good as RJ, merely that lefties are a strange breed (no offense, Ronster) and it can take them into their late 20s before ‘getting it’. and we’ve clearly seen that Coke has plus stuff.
by Travis G on Oct 1, 2008 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not sure what's worse
the Lohse deal (he’s 29 and has a 97 career ERA+), or the Linebrink deal (4 years, $19 mil for a set-up man).
by Travis G on Sep 30, 2008 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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