The curious case of Daisuke
by Travis G
on Sep 27, 2008 10:58 AM EDT
Daisuke Matsuzaka was scratched from last night's game due to rain. He's scheduled to pitch against Sidney Ponson this afternoon. With an 18-2 record and a 2.80 ERA, you might be under the impression that Matsuzaka was having a monumental year. The reality though is that he's had a monumentally lucky year.
For starters, he's walking more than five batters per nine innings. That's a huge amount (more than Brian Bruney) - it's the second highest walk rate among pitchers with at least 150 innings (only trailing the infamous Barry Zito), and it's up from 3.5 in 2007. In addition, he's striking out fewer batters (8.2 vs. 8.8 last year) with the exact same groundball, flyball, line drive and WHIP rates. You've got to be extremely lucky to increase your walk rate, decrease your strikeout rate, maintain most of your other peripherals and still have a winning record and good ERA.
The big differences are his lowered home run rate and BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Since hitters are still hitting the balls just as hard as last year (indicated by his identical line drive rate), it leads me to believe that his lowered HR rate is also due to luck. And BABIP notoriously fluctuates for pitchers from year to year. Even in Japan, where he was the premier hurler, his BABIP averaged ~.283. This year, it's just .266 compared to .306 last year.
His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) ERA of 4.00 tells the true story. It means that he's lucky and playing behind a good defense that converts a lot of those line drives into outs. Last year his ERA (4.40) and record (15-12) were far truer to his FIP (4.23) for that of an above average pitcher.
So is Daisuke worth ~$20 million a year? Hell no.
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and?...
we’ve discussed those guys to death. what is your point?
by Travis G on
Sep 28, 2008 4:21 PM EDT
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Great analysis
Unfortunately, luck is a huge part of the game- and luck or not, the Red Sox will be playing in October. But this gives me more hope for next season.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on Sep 27, 2008 2:05 PM EDT 0 recs
Your dead-on right
In the short term, luck is a huge part of the game.
Long term, we can expect Dice-K to regress next season.
by 3460kuri on Sep 27, 2008 3:12 PM EDT 0 recs
not entirely accurate
reminds me of Lee Smith, when he played for the Red Sox
not the most dominant part of Lee’s career, but he did well
Lee would drive me crazy, come into the 9th with a one run lead and walk the bases loaded, but then strike that last guy out. Just would never give in. Nibble, nibble, nibble
Dice K has had to adjust. In Japan, apparently, guys would swing at stuff way out of the strike zone in a pitcher’s count. They don’t here, but Dice K keeps hoping.
He wastes fewer pitches but still wastes a ton. Still, slowly, he has been getting those waste pitches closer to the plate
My guess is that he can be a consistent 14 – 15 game winner in AL East. Pretty good
by Frank Malzone on Sep 27, 2008 11:43 PM EDT 0 recs
Oh come on...
The reason he’s done so well isn’t luck. There is nothing curious about it; he doesn’t trust his stuff and tries to nibble the corners when the bases are empty. Then he suddenly faces a jam, and each time his amazing stuff gets him out of it..
He gets lucky sometimes; no more than other pitchers do. To suggest that he had a lucky 30 starts is ridiculous.
And here’s the bottom line; the Red Sox are going to the playoffs this year. Daisuke won 18 games; without him we might not be in the playoffs. So is he worth $20M? Obviously.
by Charger567 on Sep 28, 2008 12:47 AM EDT 0 recs
the faultiest logic there is
‘because we have player X, and we’re a good team, player X must be good too.’ do you hear how that sounds?
by your logic, Eric Gagne must be a good player too.
by Travis G on
Sep 28, 2008 4:19 PM EDT
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uh, Travis
Dice K is our No. 3 starter
his pitches have a lot of movement
and he doesn’t throw many over the middle of the plate
so he does pretty good
what are you arguing? That we paid too much?
compared to Pavano?
Anyway, they all get paid too much. Way too much. All of them.
time for you to start thinking about the hot stove stuff
by Frank Malzone on
Sep 28, 2008 8:09 PM EDT
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are you saying you agree with 'Charger567'?
i hope not, for your sake.
“Dice K is our No. 3 starter”
ok, not sure what your point is.
“and he doesn’t throw many over the middle of the plate”
1. considering his LD rate, he does.
2. if he actually doesn’t, maybe he should a bit more. Boston has a good defense and his walks are sky high.
“what are you arguing? That we paid too much?”
Yes.
compared to Pavano?
No. but everyone is a bargain compared to Pavano. (well, except for maybe Zito and Hampton.) does the fact that he’s better than Pavano (at double the price) somehow make it a steal for you?
it depends who you compare him to. Halladay and Cliff Lee make a combined $14 mil. Daisuke is highly overpaid compared to them.
“Anyway, they all get paid too much. Way too much. All of them.”
Absolutely.
“time for you to start thinking about the hot stove stuff”
lol. when you haven’t won the debate, try to make yourself feel better by putting down your opponent. well played!
by Travis G on
Sep 29, 2008 1:41 AM EDT
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maybe I misunderstood you
I thought your main point was that Dice K would “regress”
I am saying that he is now a good middle of the rotation pitcher, and I expect him to stay at that level for the reasons I said
your $20 million per year is a bit misleading because you include the posting fee, but whatever. If you think that you should get a No. 1 starter for $20 million, then you have a point
frankly, getting anything out of any free agent is at least a partial victory
by Frank Malzone on
Sep 30, 2008 8:18 AM EDT
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$20 mil/year
is the threshold (imo) for perennial Cy Young contenders, e.g. Halladay, Santana, Sabathia, Webb, etc.
it makes Boston’s payroll look smaller, but they are still averaging ~$17 mil (plus incentives, and the costs for physical therapists, massage therapists, ST housing, etc.) despite his actual contract averaging about $10 mil/year. his perks are crazy.
(I thought it was a 5-year deal, it’s actually 6, so hence the $17+ rather than $20)
by Travis G on
Sep 30, 2008 4:13 PM EDT
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