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Baseball Prospectus on the 2009 Yankees

Tiny by 3460kuri on

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Fixing it

BP is usually dead-on right with their analysis, and while there are a few points made here that I've disagreed with in the past, I have to hope that Cashman & the Steinbrenners subscribe to this site.  (I've bolded points that I find especially pertinent).

 

The risks on the market are far too great to justify the costs. Sabathia has thrown a ton of pitches the last few years and will almost certainly struggle to manage his body as he ages. Ben Sheets and A.J. Burnett have never been able to string multiple healthy and effective seasons together. Ryan Dempster and Oliver Perez have rarely been able to string multiple healthy and effective half-seasons together. There are nothing but land mines out there, and unless you can get one of these pitchers to take a shorter deal with a very high average annual value, the likelihood of a disastrous contract is high. The Yankees have a fair amount of pitching talent already on hand, and do not need to assume the massive risk involved in a market-price contract for one of these pitchers.

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Your 2009 Yankees

While I agree with much that was written, your final posting of the 2009 Yankees is laughable. In looking at the rotation alone, did you learn nothing in 2008?

You propose: Wang, Chamberlain, Mussina, Hughes, Kennedy, Pavano

I suggest that Kennedy and Hughes haven’t done anything to deserve a spot. Too much was expected from them this season, and I’m not willing to fall into that trap again. I’d go after CC and make Kennedy and Hughes fight for a spot in spring training and from the pen. I also wouldn’t rule out Aceves, and would consider Coke.

And what of Humberto Sanchez?

Pavano is an interesting situation. He hasn’t been bad. I suspect he will get stronger next season.

Now the lineup: Posada is risky, and Molina isn’t the answer. We need to grab an up and comer catcher like Dioner Navar—oops, that was our guy and we jettisoned him for a broken down fireballer. Nice. I’m thinking Saltalamacchia, Doumit perhaps.

1B: Teixeira

2b: Cano (on a very short leash and a lit firecracker sticking in his ass). I’d trade Betemit and hand the reigns to supersub Cody Ransom
SS: Jeter
3B: Rodriguez
LF: Damon, Nady
CF: Cabrera (I’m tempted to try to move him and some prospects)
RF: Abreu ( I would bring back Abreu for a two year deal)
DH:Matsui
RP: Rivera, Ramirez, Veras, Coke, Aceves, Giese (What about Melancon, Sanchez)?

 

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 23, 2008 5:02 PM EDT   0 recs

Doumit?

Speaking as a Pirate fan, I’m not sure why you think Doumit is attainable. It’s not like the Bucs are just going to give Doumit away, especially given how thin the Pirates are at catcher. Same goes for Salty, although he may be me more attainable due to the presence of Taylor Teagarden. How do you propose the Yanks acquire such a catcher?

Formerly known as Econolodge

by Willton on Sep 23, 2008 9:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

With all do respect ...

The Pirates have been giving away talent for more than a decade. I see no reason to believe otherwise.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 25, 2008 1:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Pirates are not run by the same idiots they were in the past.

Huntington is a smart guy from the Cleveland organization. Don’t be surprised as Pittsburgh turns things around over the next five years.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 25, 2008 5:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

May be true, but ...

Having watched them play this season, I see no fire, no heart, and no desire. The Pirates are a dead franchise with a gorgeous ballpark. It’s a shame.

He might be a smart guy from Cleveland, but if he was so smart why’d he leave? Why pawn off the two key reasons fans would come to the park—to see Nady and Bay. And for what in return? I’m sorry, but I see much of the same—a team in constant rebuilding phase.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 26, 2008 9:20 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Bay and Nady were gone after next season anyway

They weren’t going to be members of the next Pirates’ contender. So you might as well get something in return. Karstens, Tabata, and Laroche is a decent haul.

Why did Huntington leave? Because he gets to run his own organization instead of being an assistant.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 26, 2008 11:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ouch ...

Calling that mess in Pittsburgh an organization is a stretch, don’tcha’ think.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 26, 2008 2:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Nobody's arguing the Pirates have been an awful franchise for the past, oh, at least ten years

The point is that they won’t be going forward. It takes a while to change the players and the public’s view of the franchise. If the Mariners hire Billy Beane to replace Bill Bavasi’s spot, would you expect the same results going forward?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 26, 2008 2:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Problem is ...

I don’t see Billy Beane in Pittsburgh.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 30, 2008 4:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

do you know anything about Neil Huntington?

he might not be as solid as BB, but he’s a smart dude. get back to me in three years ;)

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 30, 2008 5:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'll go better than that ...

If the Pirates post a winning record in three years, I’ll personally take you to a game in PA—everything’s on me. If after three years they are still holding annual fire sales, you treat me to a game in Yankee Stadium?

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 1, 2008 11:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i'm not very big on that lineup

I agree with staying away from the pitchers (The pitcher who throws the most pitches one year has gotten put on the DL the next year 9 out of the last 11 years) so no Sabathia, Sheets is too much of a risk, better bargains could be found on the market.

I dont agree with keeping abreu, hes a good hitter but this team needs to get younger.

My actions

1. Sign Toby Hall or Michael Barrett to a 1-2 year deal, decent backups that can hit 270-290 off the bench, should Jorge get hurt
2. Keep Robinson Cano, but sign a versatile backup that could play all infield positions i.e. Juan Uribe or Ramon Vazquez to a 1-2 year deal
3. Sign Rocco Baldelli as a 4th outfield. Should come cheap, could be a fan favorite, and can produce if healthy. If it doesn’t work out so be it
4. Sign Texiera or trade for a first baseman elsewhere, 1b is the biggest hole; I’ve heard Prince Fielder is on the trading block, while I don’t really like his attitude the fatman can hit
5. Sign Derek Lowe, yes he is old but he is getting better and sinker ballers can last a long time. Reliable and stable.
6. Sign Joe Beimel, solid left-handed reliever
7. Resign Mussina

C. Posada
1B. Texiera/Nady
2B. Cano
SS. Jeter
3B. Arod
LF. Damon
CF. Melky/Baldelli
RF. Nady
DH. Matsui

Starters: Wang, Lowe, Chamberlain, Mussina, Hughes/Kennedy

by RamiroMendoza on Sep 23, 2008 7:32 PM EDT   0 recs

jeesh, i don't totally disagree, but that's not how I see it

I agree that the Yankees are a pretty good team and they got poor performances from two youngsters, but only Cano was a huge dropoff from expectations — would .075 points of OPS from Melky have really mattered?

My two big issues with the 2007 team are fundamental philosophical mistakes: not valuing fielding nearly enough (costing the team nearly 6 wins compared to an average team) and not having nearly enough organizational depth to replace Posada, Matsui, and the starting pitchers.

Regarding fielding, Bobby Abreu is just awful and should not be brought back — when considering defense, he’s a below-average player and the Yankees don’t need another DH on the roster. Matsui needs to DH, with Damon in center and a corner outfielder acuired to play opposite Nady, and a 1B needs to brought in to both hit AND field (hello, Teixeira). Jeter’s unfortunately going nowhere, but Cano must (and can) get his glove back to where it was in recent years.

Regarding team depth, it’s just pathetic that a team with such a high payroll doesn’t have better options than Jose Molina (with a 36 year-old catcher on the team), Phillips/Duncan/Sexson, Gardner/Ransom/Christian, and Ponson and Geise (Rasner’s solid depth.) If the team was nearly willing to shell out an additional $20MM for Santana, they should have been willing to spend half that on a collection of league-average backups just in case.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 23, 2008 8:09 PM EDT   0 recs

What is the Yankees comparative advantage?

A: Money. There are practically no limits to their spending, beyond who they can fit on the roster. They need to continue to throw their weight around in Free Agency, the draft, and the international .

I largely disagree with Sheehan’s strategy. He’s advising the Yankees to save money, which is completely unnecessary for them. Why NOT pay Sabathia’s ransom? Why NOT sign AJ Burnett? The Yankees need dominant starters like these not only to field a competitive roster in the toughest division in baseball, but to succeed in the playoffs.

My strategy:
1) Rotation: Sign Burnett, Sabathia and Pettitte (if he’s not Type A). Along with Wang and Chamberlain, they should have a solid starting staff. When Burnett (or someone else) is lost to injury, Hughes or Kennedy steps in. With luck, one of them will pan out. If neither does, then the season is not over. Seriously, to match Boston, Tampa, or even Toronto, the Yankees need to field comparable pitching staffs. Pitching wins playoffs, so if y’alls want to win them, pony up the money.

2) OF: I’d run out Cabrera initially, for his defense. The Yankees were 12th in the league in Defensive Efficiency, and must make a Rays-like effort to improve this. Damon stays in left, Matsui DHes, Abreu let go for picks.

3) Tex plays good defense, so he’d be a fine acquisition. But don’t expect him to miraculously improve the offense – Giambalco was pretty good too.
____

The Yankees should either go all the way in acquiring talent, or they should completely rebuild their club. Because the 2008 squad was a disaster; it couldn’t beat out a Sox team wracked by injuries (Ortiz, Beckett, Drew, Schilling and many others). And cosmetic changes (as Sheehan proposes) will not change the balance of power within the division.

by 0157H7 on Sep 23, 2008 11:22 PM EDT   0 recs

what would the estimated cost of that team be for 2009?

even the Yankees have a limit on payroll, i assume.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2008 1:00 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What is the cost of spending well over $200 million

to finish 3rd or 4th?

With a new stadium of more expensive seats, it’s an insult to fans not to spend profligately on improving the team.

by 0157H7 on Sep 24, 2008 11:53 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

if a team spends $200 moderately wisely, it won't finish 3rd or 4th

the Yankees should be winning between 100 and 105 games with a payroll like that.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2008 3:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

part of the problem

is having a $13 million per year player at each position, limiting our flexibility.

by 3460kuri on Sep 24, 2008 3:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

not sure what you mean

do you mean it’s tough to bench a player who’s signed to a large contract? i suppose, but it’s something you have to do when necessary. but the initial mistake is signing a big money guy who you want to bench.

with that much money, you have to sign the guys like ARod (and seemingly Teixeira) who are phenomenal. let the prospects who work out (Cano’s level, not Melky’s level) have starting spots, then sign short-term free agents to fill in the holes or a bunch of cheap free agent risks and plan on a couple sticking.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2008 4:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

This is the key point...

How do they get back to the postseason in 2009 in a way that leverages their assets while avoiding the kind of massive mistakes that kill a team for years to come?

Why not sign Sabatthia and Burnett?. Because you’ll be paying $40 million to two pitchers over the next 5 years, at least. Sabatthia may be worth it, but he does carry some injury risk, and Burnett, as stated in the article above, has yet to string together healthy, effective seasons. It may put you on great footing for 2009, but what about 2012? That’s been the problem these past few years.

The point of this article is that the Yanks don’t HAVE to spend $400 million on free agents to improve next year.

I know that most on this board are very low on Hughes/Kennedy, but I am not ready to give up on either of them. Over the next 5 years, I would rather gamble that one of them can become a league-average pitcher, and take the payroll and roster flexibility that comes with their youth, than lock up a roster spot on an expensive, injury-prone, underachiever like AJ Burnett.

The nice thing about the BP proposed rotation is flexibility – You’ve got two young, effective pitchers (Wang & Chamberlain), and then a bunch of guys on either 1-year deals or pre-arbitration, so if it doesn’t work in 2009, you can blow the thing up and start over next year. Again, I would rather have that flexibility than lock up roster spots on expensive, injury-prone, underachievers.

Again, as low as you all are on Hughes/Kennedy, most teams would die for a depth chart of Wang, Chamberlain, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves, Pavano, Rasner. That’s 8 league-average starting pitchers (potentially), without having to hit the waiver wire.

by 3460kuri on Sep 24, 2008 9:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

MOST teams don't play in the AL East.

The Rays are set up as a pitching superpower. The Red Sox aren’t far behind. Lowly Toronto has a far better rotation and defense than NYY. If the Yankees don’t start spending NOW, they will continue to perform mediocrely, and begin to hemorrhage fans. That could hurt their future revenue.

After the Red Sox missed the playoffs in 2006, they made a big effort to improve the team. They signed Daisuke Matsuzaka, overpaid for JD Drew, and even got Julio Lugo. At the time, these deals were criticized, and they are still being criticized (especially Lugo’s) but overall they improved the team. The Yankees, and to a lesser extent the Red Sox, have the financial resources to absorb bad contracts without completely withering. As a Sox fan, I’d like nothing more than to see Cashman stand pat, and watch another year of toothless Yankees.

by 0157H7 on Sep 24, 2008 11:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The gap isn't as wide as you think...

Boston’s RA (run average, forget earned or unearned) is 4.25 and the Yankees is 4.56. If we get 30 starts from Wang this year, and 20 from Chamberlain (instead of 15 and 12), Sidney Ponson never pitches a game for the Yankees and Darrell Rasner only makes 10 starts this year instead of 20.

by 3460kuri on Sep 24, 2008 2:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i agree.

and given the awful yankee defense, their pitching is even more impressive. although, Boston’s rotation has to pitch in Fenway half the time.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2008 3:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Awful Yankee defense?

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 25, 2008 1:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Matsui, Abreu, Jeter and Giambi...

…have consistently been sub-par fielders, with Abreu having an attrocious year in 2008. Even Cano got in on the action, sinking well below average in 2008. Molina behind the plate, Melky in center field, and ARod at third were the only good fielder, and none were approaching great status.

Yes, awful Yankee defense.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 25, 2008 5:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Do you have numbers that actually back that up?

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 26, 2008 9:30 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yes

check out the first chart in this article:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/9/23/619493/who-s-to-blame-for-the-200

the numbers are combined BIS and STATS zone ratings converted to runs. i’m fully aware that zone ratings aren’t perfect, but most of the players mentioned have been bad for a few years (excepting Cano and Abreu was obviously not THIS bad previously, and Jeter’s actually been worse for a while).

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 26, 2008 11:52 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And if Beckett, Ortiz, Drew, Lowell and Schilling

don’t miss all that time, the Sox win 100+ games. Injuries happen, and they should be predicted for a team of aging veterans like the Yankees.

by 0157H7 on Sep 24, 2008 4:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i think you're overrating all that time lost and the quality of the players

Schilling’s old and didn’t have a great 2007.

Ortiz’s missed time was probably worth 2 wins, but Drew (no guarantee he hits like his 2008 self and not 2007), Lowell, and Beckett were maybe 1 game each.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2008 4:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Uhh...

Let’s go over your statements.
“Schilling’s old” – This is true.
“… and didn’t have a great 2007.”
This implies that his season was bad. It wasn’t Cy Young-quality, obviously, but a 122+ ERA season with a 23 BB / 101 K ratio was quite good. Barring injury, he might have produced a similar line. Even a slight step back would have been better than what we got from Clay Buchholz / Paul Byrd / Bartolo Colon.

And your win totals (2+3), plus improvement from Schilling, make the Red Sox around a 100-win team. Which proves my point.

by 0157H7 on Sep 26, 2008 12:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

looking at Schilling's '07, i was definitely wrong

only 150 IP, though, and it’s not like you would expect him to pitch more than that this year anyway.

the other thing i’ll add is that the Red Sox didn’t lose a ton more talent to injuries than other teams. look at the yankees with Posada, Matsui, Hughes, and Chamberlain. look at the Rays with Longoria, Crawford, Pena, and Upton a bit.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 26, 2008 11:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Yankees’ losses to injury might be about equal to the Sox’. I don’t think the Rays’ injuries hurt them nearly as much, however, because of that team’s depth. Losing Kazmir early didn’t hurt them, Baldelli compensated for Crawford, and Hinske can stand in for Longoria. Most of these injuries came at the end of the season, when the Rays already had a commanding lead.

by 0157H7 on Sep 26, 2008 1:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

eh, ok

Hinske is no Longoria, please.

But sure, I can agree that the Rays’ depth was a big asset this year. However, nobody should give the Sox more pitty for that — it’s their own fault they didn’t have more depth.

And the timing of the injuries is pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Win early or late, they’re still wins towards making the post-season. How did losing Kazmir early not hurt them? Those Niemann and Hammel starts were awful. You can’t credit the Sox with extra wins for missed time and not credit the performance lost by the Rays.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 26, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Red Sox

were very deep this season.
They’ve had at least 4 good outfielders at all times. When Ortiz was out, Ramirez moved to DH, and Ellsbury played LF. Obviously they last on the bat, but Ortiz is only hitting .265 this season, and they made up some of those runs on the defensive side, as for a good stretch, the Red Sox had the best defensive outfield in baseball. Crisp has had a renaissance year, hitting .283. Drew has hit .283 with a .930 OPS. When he went down, they already had Bay in left, and so they moved Ellsbury to rightfield, and also acquired Mark Kotsay for pennies on the dollar.
  Mike Lowell has missed significant time this season, and the solution for the Red Sox was to move Youkilis over to third, and place Sean Casey at first. Lowell has hit .274 this season, with a .798 OPS, while Casey has stepped up with a .323 avg, along with a .775 OPS.
  Varitek was outhit .220 to .232 by his understudy.
  Julio Lugo went down to the delight of Red Sox fans, and was replaced by Jed Lowrie, who has hit and fielded better than Lugo.
  The Red Sox had nearly no bullpen injuries this season.
  
  To the people citing the Curt Schilling injury, please. If the guy doesn’t start the season with you,you can’t count him. He was barely accounted for in the offseason, as they knew months in advance. He may as well have retired. I haven’t been bitching about the 220 innings, 18 wins, and 3.00 ERA that we should’ve been getting from Pavano the last four seasons.

The Rays on the other hand were not deep, and struggled mightily when Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria went down, among others.
  Really, the Red Sox are probably the deepest team in baseball, and that is the only reason that they are in the postseason.

by rory_sayer on Sep 27, 2008 2:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

losing CC was not a huge deal, especially considering his 2008 performance

Gross, Aybar, Zobrist are excellent backups.

and I think you’re overrating Ellsbury this year. playing him instead of Papi was a huge difference.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 28, 2008 4:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ridiculous

You are comparing Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria with Aybar, Zobrist, and Gross. Crawford, in his down year, hit .273 and stole 25 bases, along with 8 HRs in 443 ABs. Longoria, in his rookie season, hit .274 with 27 HRs and 31 doubles in 445 ABs.
Aybar hit .250, with 10 HRs in 320 ABs. He was Longoria’s primary replacement. Gross hit .243 with 13 HRs in 300 ABs, and Zobrist hit .249 with 11 HRs in 193 ABs. These were Crawford’s primary replacements. Oh, and all three of them totaled 7 stolen bases… So did Longoria. Those are your offensive numbers, where the replacements stack up the best.
  Longoria, at third base, posted a +16 FRAA, one of the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Crawford posted a pretty good +8 FRAA.
  Aybar was an excellent defensive replacement with a +9 FRAA, Gross was a +1, and Zobrist was a -2. All together they have a total FRAA of +8. In other words, the three of them manage what Crawford produces defensively, and the difference between the groups is Longoria’s entire score, of +16.
  So, quite obviously, you have a large downgrade offensively, and a slightly larger downgrade defensively.
  Another way to look at it, the replacement group, for the entire season, amounted to 7.1 Wins Above Replacement. That’s three players.
  Crawford and Longoria, mounted to 12.0 Wins Above Replacement. That’s two players. Are you starting to get the picture?
  As far as Ortiz to Ellsbury, of course it’s a downgrade offensively. However, similar to what you said about Crawford, Ortiz’s 2008 was nothing special.
Ortiz’s Batting Runs Above Average was 19 this season. Last season, it was 66. He was severely off this season. Ellsbury’s, as point of reference, was only 3. So there is a substantial difference, obviously.
  Now, Ortiz, being a DH, is a non-factor defensively. Manny Ramirez, on the other hand, is not when he plays left field. To give credit to Ramirez, he has seriously improved his defense the last couple of years. In 2006, he had a FRAA of -21. This season with the sox it was only a -1, so big improvement. The big deal, though, is when the Sox were able to put Ramirez at DH, and Ellsbury in left, as the defensive upgrade was massive. Ellsbury, on the season, had a FRAA of +18. A +19 over Ramirez. So the offense was downgraded, but the defense was dramatically upgraded.
Oh, and Ortiz and Ellsbury’s WARPs for the season:
Ortiz 3.6
Ellsbury 6.5
And to illustrate the difference on the team while Ortiz was out:
he missed 45 games because of injury between May 31 and July 25th. On May 31st, the Red Sox were 34 and 24, a .586 winning percentage. On July 24th, the Red Sox were 60-43, a .583 win percentage. In the interim, they amassed a 26-19 record, a .577 win percentage. When added up, Ortiz’s injury MIGHT have cost them one game.
Don’t you love evidence?

by rory_sayer on Sep 28, 2008 6:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think you're missing the point.

7.1 wins above replacement is INSANELY good for replacement players. Much of the time, a team devastated by injuries has to settle for much less, running out players of 0 wins above replacement (or negative wins). The Rays are probably the deepest team in baseball.

Also, were Ortiz healthy for the entire season, his numbers would be much better. He returned with “clicking” issues, poor timing, and lingering pain. The injury not only cut into his playing time, but made him a substantially worse player on return.

by 0157H7 on Sep 28, 2008 7:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

really?

“7.1 wins above replacement is INSANELY good for replacement players… The Rays are probably the deepest team in baseball.”

Okay, so 7.1 WARP from three reserves IS pretty good. However, if that is insanely good, then the Red Sox trio of Crisp, Lowrie, and Cora, who combine for 7.7 WARP, or the Tigers trio of Thames, Inge, and Joyce, who combine for 8.1 WARP, or the Indians trio of Shoppach, Shin-Soo Choo, and carroll for a total of 11.3, are all insanely better.
I mean, if the Rays are the deepest team in baseball, with their three best reserves coming up with a 7.1 WARP, then the Red Sox (7.7 WARP), the Tigers (8.1 WARP), and the Indians (11.3 WARP!!!) don’t play in that league? I’m not sure I understand. This, by the way, doesn’t include the pitching depth of Boston.

  As far as Ortiz not playing well because of injury, well, a bad season is a bad season, you’re the one who brought up how big of a deal it is to lose a player given his production in the current season.
  
 BJ Upton has played most of the season with a shoulder injury that will require surgery in the offseason. Last season, he hit .300 with 24 HRs. This season, he’s hitting .274 with nine HRs. His slugging percentage dropped from .508 last season to .403 this season. Rocco Baldelli slugged .533 in 2006, but because of his illness, has only slugged .438 when available this season.

  Don’t tell me that Ortiz’s performance has suffered from injury while failing to address similar problems on the other side of the ball.

by rory_sayer on Sep 29, 2008 3:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i'm not sure why you're harping on Longoria's greatness. i fully agree.

and of course it’s a big dropoff from him to any backup. just like it’s a huge dropoff from Papi to Ellsbury. but having Ben Zobrist and his .253 .339 .505 line hurts a lot less than a typical .250 .310 .380 backup.

Carl Crawford hit .273 .319 .400 this year. That’s below average, and his steals and very good defense maybe push him above average by a touch. Gabe Gross hit .238 .336 .414 this year and plays just as well in the field (i will give you that he sits against most lefties, though), which is a quality backup.

i’m going to ignore any use of WARP or FRAA since they are garbage stats. and it’s poor form to use a counting stat instead of a rate stat when determining the quality of a player or his backups — it’s totally dependent on playing time.

i’m not sure why we’re still arguing this. the Rays have had very good backups this year, helping them survive while they fought through injuries to important players. some of those important players were awesome, some were having disappointing years.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 29, 2008 2:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My point

was that the Red Sox bench was deeper. That’s all I was getting at. Yes, the Rays had good production from their bench this season, but not as good as the Red Sox. He was saying that the Rays are the deepest team in baseball, and that was why they were in the playoffs. I argued that the Red Sox are deeper, and being the wild card, and thus winning by a lower margin, they actually benefited from their deep bench more than the Rays did.

by rory_sayer on Sep 29, 2008 4:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wrong.

Just simply wrong. You do not “spend” your way to a World Series title. “Spending” has nothing at all to do with mediocrity or excellence. I give you 2001-Present NY Yankees “highest payrolls in the major leagues” as exhibits 1-8. (And on the other end of the spectrum, the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, who spend far fewer dollars than NY, yet lead the division)

The team has consistently outspent, over bid for FAs etc — and has won zero WS titles in that timeframe.

So, clearly “SPENDING” does not simply equate to “WINNING” which is why the team reverted to “Development” (which yielded the fastest winning growth rate in the team’s history between 1994-1999).

Do you bother to actually look at stats before posting?

“Lowly” Toronto is 9-9 and 8-8 vs Bos/NY and 7-11 vs TB
NY is 11-7 vs TB and 7-8 vs Bos (with 3 to play)
Bos is 8-10 vs TB

The actual H2H differential looks like this:

TB +4
NYY +3
BOS -1
TOR -4

The AL East was not decided intra-division by very many games among the top four teams. But TB dominated Baltimore (14-3) and the other three did not. NY lost it’s shot outside the division by a much wider margin; and these numbers show TB did not run away with the division head 2 head.

The Yankees focus needs to be on offensive and defensive improvements at catcher, centerfield, 1st base (I’ll suffer Abreu one more year if I “have” to). Of those, only 1st base has a realistic, worthwhile “investment” in Tex. Outside of Tex, there isn’t anything to “spend” on.

And they aren’t going to “hemorrhage” fans anytime soon.

by detroit yankee on Sep 24, 2008 4:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

what about 1998 - 2000?

and they’ve made the playoffs every season in the 2001-1997 time frame, which is mostly a crapshoot. that’s because of their money, mostly. to claim money has nothing to do with mediocrity or excellence is ignorant. it matters, just not as much as intelligence.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2008 4:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Seconded.

The Yankees have been spending their ways to division titles and playoff berths throughout the new millenium. It’s a decent strategy much of the time, but fielding teams of aging veterans does increase the injury risk.

detroit yankee,
Head to head win totals mean very little to me, which is why I didn’t bother consulting them. For the regular season, all that matters is winning the most games, and a lot of this winning is against bad teams. The Yankees have played contenders pretty well, but they haven’t really cleaned up on the dregs of the league.
BOS vs. TEX: 9-1 NYY vs. TEX: 3-4
BOS vs. KCR: 6-1 NYY vs. KCR: 5-5
BOS vs. CLE: 5-1 NYY vs. CLE: 3-4
BOS vs. DET: 5-2 NYY vs. DET: 2-4

That could be the season right there. Boston also has one more win against Baltimore and one more against the National League than the Yanks.

This is leaving aside the Yankees’ outperforming their Pythagorean expectation to the tune of three games (Boston is -1, Toronto is -6).

In the playoffs, you need solid pitching to consistently advance. If I were a Yankee fan, I’d want to throw Sabathia and/or Burnett against my opponents, given Wang’s postseason struggles, the age of Mussina / Pettitte, and the youth of Joba / Hughes. The Yankees have the most money, and should be able to field the best pitching staff, or at least one in the top 4 of the league.

by 0157H7 on Sep 26, 2008 1:08 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

An additional point

Yankee free agent pitchers include
Moose Clements Pettitte Cone Wells etc etc all the way back to Catfish Hunter.

By the way Catfish was signed along with DonGullet, who had one good year and then was lost to a series of injuries. With pitchers it’s a gamble.

So there have been great signings mixed with the really bad ones. “You gotta be in it to win it”. It’s a gamble, but we have the money and this is the way to use it. The goal is to win. Sign enough guys to have the winners so that the losers don’t bother you too much.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Sep 26, 2008 8:52 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

actually

Sheehan was not advising the Yanks to “save” money per se. In fact he advised them to overspend in the short term to give them more flexibility in the long term.

You assume that the Yankees have a practically unlimited budget, but that is almost certainly not the case (if it were, then Hank Paulson would be calling them up for some help right about now). We just don’t know where there limit is – but rest assured there is a limit, and they would probably not let anyone ever get realistically close to finding it out.

Signing C.C. is not only going to take a lot of money, it’s going to require a long term deal as well. If we could get him for 3 or 4 years I think Sheehan might be on board with that. But that’s not realistic, someone will stupidly give him a 7 or 8 year deal and that is what has killed us over the last few years. Expensive, long-term contracts that leave us stuck with aging players who aren’t worth the dollars at the end of the end of the contract when they have either regressed or become injured. See: Giambi, Jason.

by losjanks on Sep 26, 2008 4:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah

but sometimes they work out. See: Moose

Cano is a Pimp

by yankeechaser on Sep 27, 2008 3:14 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

OK I'll stand pat at Cf for a year

And see if AJ can get close. Maybe an opportunity to upgrade will present itself.

I like the Gardner kid more than would be indicated by his complete absense from this discussion. Next year we should play him or trade him. If he’s not going to be a Yankee his value in the market isn’t much, but it isn’t going to go up. I think he can play.

I agree with the idea of picking up the option on Pavano. I agree with another year for Pettitte and Moose if they’ll come back. I’ve been hearing a lot of retirement talk about Moose. Andy P. needs to rethink and retool to be effective. He’s a risk for next year but, I think a better risk than Kennedy. I think Aceves and Coke need to come to Sprin T as starters unless we sign a big starter.

If the Yankees do not sign CC I’ll be disappointed.

Texiera would be a nice improvement.

I do want Abreu back and have wriiten a recent post putting that idea forward.

So, I say sign TEx and CC. Pick up Pavano’s option. Buy out Giambi (SAD).

Resign Andy and Moose if they’re willing.

Open up spring traing and let Melky compete with Bret G. And AJ. See what happens.

The bullpen will be a revolving door with lots of trips back and forth to Scranton for the young guys with options. I see this as a good thing and we have plenty there. No worries about adding to the bullpen. I’d trade a bullpen arm or two if we got help for them. How about Veras, Melky or Gardner, and Matre to the Mets for Beltran?

I think catching might be a big problem.

I can be optimistic with the team, but not confident.

By the way, for new thirdbase coach I’d like Willie R.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Sep 24, 2008 10:28 AM EDT   0 recs

We are on the same page ...

especially bringing Willie back into the fold. It might light a bit of a fire under Joe’s butt and keep him from making some stupid moves.

I wouldn’t bring Pettitte and Moose back, but I’ve heard both might retire. If that’s the case Coke and Aceves become necessities in the Spring.

Mark my words, Posada will not be able to throw runners out and handle the daily load next season. WE NEED A YOUNG CATCHER WITH SOME UPSIDE.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 25, 2008 1:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Uh

“Mark my words, Posada will not be able to throw runners out and handle the daily load next season. WE NEED A YOUNG CATCHER WITH SOME UPSIDE.”

You know this how?

Last time we saw Posada try to throw a runner out, he had a torn rotator cuff. Let’s wait and see him in spring training before we jump to conclusions.

by 3460kuri on Sep 25, 2008 2:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I see your point BUT

given his age and the nature of the injury and surgery, Ronster’s right. Did you know that only 80% of these surgeries are considered successful for civilians? Much less for top level athletes.

The smart money says Posada plays in pain all year!

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Sep 25, 2008 6:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

???

Civilians who don’t depend on their shoulder to make a living don’t rehab like top level athletes do.

If 80% of the civilian population comes through successfully, why would an athlete have a lower success rate?

by 3460kuri on Sep 25, 2008 8:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Success for a civilian is defined as

a 90% reduction of the pain from the injury. Even 10% of the pain is enough to leave the shoulder too weak to really perform.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Sep 26, 2008 12:39 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Again, that's fine

But Posada is going to rehab this shoulder harder and more thoroughly than you or I would. Professional athletes who make a living off of physical activity will always rehab harder than ordinary people will.

I’m not saying we’re out of the woods, but I take issue with “mark my words, he won’t be able to throw runners out next year”. Up until now, Posada has been an excellent offensive catcher, a passable defensive catcher, and has never played fewer than 137 games in a season (plus postseason games as well). When a player suffers the first major injury of his career, ten years into his career, I think it’s foolish to just automatically assume that he can’t come back from it.

by 3460kuri on Sep 26, 2008 8:59 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In Addition

a shoulder injury is not the typical injury for wear and tear on a catcher. So what he is really saying, is that no baseball player can comeback from this injury and surgery, such as pitchers who in fact have come back from it numerous times.
With catchers, the signs of aging are usually in the knees, not the shoulder.
Pitchers wear and tear is shown in the shoulder and the elbow, and they still come back from it.

by rory_sayer on Sep 26, 2008 2:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My Orthopedic doc ...

 concurs with Cbeck and adds that recovery time for that surgery cannot be shortened. He told me rotator cuff surgery and full recovery takes 11-18 months…. Message to Cashman: Find a young catcher to backup Posada, or have Girardi dust off his gear.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 26, 2008 9:29 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

and let's say Posada can catch 100 games next year

what about 2010? 2011? Yeah, it’s time to find the next catcher.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 26, 2008 11:58 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not a backup ...

We need to isolate several young up and comers (like Navarro—oh, sorry, that’s right, we once had him. Hmmm, could use him now), and then grab one. Let him tutor under Posada for a year or two and turn the reins over to him.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 26, 2008 2:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Well

according to the team doctors, Posada has a good chance of being recovered by spring training, which is why he ended his season when he did. If he had waited, they said, he would be hard pressed to get back to full strength in time. Now, they say he has a good chance. That includes Dr. Andrews.

by rory_sayer on Sep 26, 2008 2:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I hope so ...

Last season I hoped Hughes and Kennedy would combine to win 25-30 games… I’m just saying it’s a smart move to grab a young catcher with upside.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Sep 26, 2008 2:30 PM EDT to parent up