Manny
by Travis G on Sep 11, 2008 2:40 AM EDT
in New York Yankees Analysis
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Let's get this guy. There, I said it (or rather wrote it). He'll be a free agent so it would only require money. If we sign CC Sabathia, we'll lose a first round draft pick anyway, so why not go for two Type-A's?
(If the Yanks keep losing, one of the benefits is that they'll secure their first round pick and will not have to surrender it if/when they sign a Type-A free agent.)
Despite going to the pitcher-friendly NL West, Manny is crushing the ball: .391/.485/.752 with LA (and .323/.422/.588 on the year), including two more homers last night. After another 0-fer (with three Ks) for Arod, I think he's too inconsistent (on a year-to-year basis) to lean on. Manny is the epitome of consistency, especially with RISP, the biggest problem for the Yanks this year.
Over his last 11 seasons, Manny's failed to hit better than .300 with RISP just once (2007), and that was still a respectable .276. Arod is far more up and down from year to year - he's hit over .300 (with RISP) just twice in five years with the Yankees, and in six of his last 11 seasons. His BA has dropped as low as .248 (in 2004) and as high as .364 (2002).
Perhaps it's more helpful to look at the last five seasons (since Arod was traded for). The following are each of their batting averages with RISP from 2004 to 2008:
Arod: .248, .290, .302, .333, .274
Manny: .340, .358, .323, .276, .339
Is it motivation after being traded that's caused Manny to hit so well? If so, how much would he be motivated to play for his 'hometown team' and against Boston, the team that spurned him? On the other hand, do we want a player that can be so easily swayed by motivation?
As for his defense, it's really not as bad as we've been led to think. The problem before this August is that he played left-field in Fenway Park, which counts balls that hit the wall as 'playable' when we really know that 90% of those are totally unplayable (seeing as the wall is 37 feet high). Now that he's in a normal left-field in LA, we can better gauge his defense. Both his Range Factor per game and Ranger Factor per 9 innings were below average in Boston, but since going to LA they're both better than league average. The same is true for his RZR (Revised Zone Rating), which improved more than 60 points after his move to LA. His NL defense is better than Jason Bay, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Pat Burrell and Luis Gonzalez (certainly not Gold Glove company, but not terrible either).
The biggest problem though is that Manny wants a long term deal, and could ask for $25 million per year (Scott Boras is his agent). Three years is too many, but I'd sign up for one or two with an option. You're guaranteed to get at least an above average hitter (even in his late 30s), and potentially one of the best in baseball.
Imagine a 1-2 (or technically a 3-4) punch of Arod and Manny. And I'd still offer arbitration to Abreu. If he declines, we get two draft picks. If he accepts, it's a nice problem to have too many good hitters. There could be a DH/OF rotation of Matsui, Abreu and Manny (assuming they don't trade Matsui or Damon).
But at the end of the day, I doubt it will happen. The Mets, Phillies and Dodgers are more desperate for offense, and Cash seems averse to signing aging stars anymore (at least those from other teams), but I'm hoping the NL teams won't spend the money on what they see as a DH.
Here's a question for you: which was a better signing? Moose to the Yanks or Manny to Boston? I remember living in Boston at the time, and the radio hosts talked about how Moose was a better signing, because good pitching beats good hitting.
- The Scranton Yankees won another nail-biter, 1-0 in 13 innings (the game is available to watch for free on MiLB.tv). Ian Kennedy started, and despite allowing 11 baserunners in five innings, struck out eight and did not allow a run. Mark Melancon pitched two perfect innings using just 14 pitches (sick!). Kei Igawa will go for the sweep against Pawtucket tomorrow. If they do finish off the Sox, Phil Hughes could pitch in the Brickyard Showdown, a one game championship between the IL and PCL champs (which will be broadcast at 8 p.m. on Tuesday (9/16) on ESPN2).
- Trenton lost game two of the Eastern League finals, 13-10. Austin Jackson went 3-6 with two doubles.
- The Rays won another classic in Boston, 4-2 in 14 innings (thanks to a 3-run homer over the Monster by Carlos Pena - we could use him right about now).
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Manny
As great a hitter as Ramirez is, his defense is a liability. Enough with the one dimensional players! That’s one of the reasons they’re in this mess they’re in. They have too many slugger, DH types(Matsui,Posada,Damon,Giambi etc..) They need more well rounded players,guys who can catch the ball as well as do the little things like moving runners over. They need to get away from this Homerun mentality and get back to the mid 90’s grinding, make the pitcher work style that made them champions. More Paul O’Neill types less A-Rods!
i tried to address that criticism
his D is not that bad. he’s actually above average since he left Boston (which makes ANY LFer look terrible). and it’s not like Abreu, Nady and Damon are so good out there. in fact, Abreu is the 2nd worst RFer of 2008.
Manny, despite his ‘poor fielding’, and ‘inability to move the runners over’, helped Boston win 2 titles. and it’s certainly helped LA, who’s gone 21-17 since they got him (doesnt sound like much, but it’s a considerably better win % than they had previously).
Manny in Pinstripes ...
As much as I’d love to see him mashing against the Red Sox in Yankee pinstripes, I have to agree with celerino sanchez on this one. Manny is a sure-fire first ballot HofFer who rakes with the best who ever played the game.
But in reality, he’s an aging, defensive liability, who would come at a premium.
I would consider him as a fulltime DH. But given the Matsui, Damon, Posada situation, DH might be a real logjam come next season.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
The real trouble I see
is it puts Damon back in center.
Now if Matsui can play 1st (as he indicated to Pete Abe in the last couple weeks) then we can DH Manny, leave Damon in left and find a younger CF.
I’d have to look into it. But the devil will be in the negotiation details, namely the years.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Manny + Yankees = Trouble
Is Yankee fan ready for 4 years of “Manny being Manny?” How will the NY media and fans react when he fails to run out grounders and loafs his way around the outfield? Manny is one of the all-time greats, but you have to take the good with the bad. Is NY ready to give him the kind of kid-glove treatment he got for all those years in Boston before he essentially shut it down and forced a trade? One concern is that if the same type of personality issues arise a couple of years down the road when he’s pushing 40 and making $25 mil a year, the Yankees could have a real problem on their hands.
They should sign Manny.
And trade Cano for Josh Hambomb.
Well....,
I’d definitely pick the Manny signing over the Moose signing. Manny is an all-time great, Moose a borderline HOFer… But what about this for Upton: Cano/Kennedy/Nady/McCallister?
you really like Upton
but still not enough. there’s not one A prospect in that group. Upton would require Ajax, Montero and McAllister. that might work.
Maybe in a couple years....
there will be a better situation for a trade to happen.
Cano to go?
How about Orlando Hudson? I think he’s a free agent. Then you can deal Cano for a front line outfielder.
I wouldn't touch Manny
And I’d bet that the Yanks won’t either. When age and defense is a big problem with this team – it hardly makes sense to sign a 37 yr old who can’t play defense and is a cancer in the clubhouse to boot.
That Manny being Manny stuff would never fly in the Yankee clubhouse. He’s behaving now because he wants another big contract. That tiger will never change his stripes.
It would be a HUGE mistake to sign Manny Ramirez and my money says it’s not going to happen.
agreed that it wont happen
but i wish it would. his hitting more than makes up for his D, which i’ve said is actually decent. if he was such a cancer, how did Boston and Cleveland win with him?
our age and defense ARE problems, but not as big as our hitting problems. he would go a long way toward solving that.
but i do agree that he needs motivation, whether it’s a new contract, beating his old team or playing for his hometown team. that’s why it would be smart not to go more than 2 years. that way he’s still motivated for another contract.
you really wouldnt take his monster bat on a short-term deal?
No.....
I want nothing to do with Manny Ramirez and I believe the Yanks feel that way too. Boston let Manny get out of control – which completely bit them on the ass with his antics that they finally had enough of him.
No doubt he can still hit – but I’d rather find another way to improve the team by getting younger, more flexible, and play better defense. Signing Manny reverts back to the 1980s philosophy and I don’t remember any championship rings during those days.
It’s time to take a step back and tear down a few walls instead of patching holes with chumps like Manny. I’d rather deal for a guy like Matt Kemp as a long term option patrolling the Yankee outfield for the next 5-7 years.
those 80s teams
didnt win bc of pitching. if we get CC, i’ll feel very confident with our pitching situation. the problem this year was the offense. Manny would address that, just as CC would address any pitching problems.
this ‘Manny is bad for team chemistry’ is BS. Boston unfortunately won 2 titles with him. just look at his numbers. it would be like having another clutchier Arod. and if we learned anything from Boston, it’s that 2 tremendous hitters can carry a team. the Yanks only have one.
Kemp would be nice, but he’s no stud. Cano has had a better career to this point (even on D), even with a miserable 2008.
i just dont see the downside to signing a HOF hitter to a short term deal.
I see the downside
He’s a 37 yr old DH when they already have a logjam at the position. I just think his cons outweigh his pros at this point and the Yanks won’t go anywhere near him.
Kemp is a 5-tool guy who will be 24 years old later this month and has 1,200 fewer ABs under his belt than Cano.
He has far more upside than Cano, especially his speed and power. I’d rather have someone who comes to play ball everyday at 2B and gives it his all than have someone like Cano who has all the talent in the world but lacks that same drive and motivation.
well
we can agree that the Yanks wont go after Manny. but their decisions the last 5 years have usually not led to much success.
That's exactly right
And the primary reason they need to take a completely different approach this offseason in regards to fixing this team instead of patching holes with aging free agents like they’ve done since 2001.
They need to tear down a few walls and they should do it sooner rather than later.
i would generally agree
but Manny is different. this aint Carl Pavano or Randy Johnson or Gary Sheffield. he’s still one of the best hitters in the game, does not have a laundry list of injuries, and would only be with us 2 years max (as i’m proposing).
plus the fact there’s just not much else. sure, you say Kemp, but then we’d have other holes to fill, and Kemp’s never gonna hit like Manny. Look, Matsui, Damon, Abreu are all in their mid 30s, so what’s the big deal with adding a (better) version of them? Even Nady will be 30 next year. We dont have a long term, in house OF option until Ajax, who might not be ready until 2010. it would be helpful to have extra depth in case he doesnt pan out as well or as quickly as hoped (i.e. Kennedy, Hughes).
Here's the crux of the matter
First off, I don’t think Manny would accept a 2-year deal. He will get 3 years from somebody.
Secondly, I’m very adamant about getting rid of the elderly over the next couple of years no matter what and I think adding more is exactly the wrong thing to do.
Everyone acknowledges this team has to get considerably younger and I’m always looking at the big picture and view every move for its long term ramifications.
In 2010, the Yanks will have 3 guaranteed starters in the everyday lineup who are 35 and up (A-Rod – 35, Jeter – 36, and Posada – 39). It is absolutely essential that the front office balances out the rest of the everyday lineup with young talent and players who are much closer to their 30th birthday.
It’s not a coincidence that this team looks lethargic so often – especially considering their abysmal record in the opening games of a series after a travel day. It’s also human nature for players at that age to slow down and their overall game declines – speed, agility, flexibility, and overall defense.
Damon has hit well this season, but his range is obviously in decline. Jeter’s range has been in decline for years and should have switched positions by now. A-Rod is still A-Rod but even his range is starting to decline. Abreu is atrocious in RF. Posada may or may not even be a full-time catcher any longer. Matsui is a DH. Giambi is a DH. Manny would also be a DH who happens to play LF.
When you have a few guys like that in your lineup – a team can overcome it. But when you have a lineup loaded with those kinds of aging players – you have a very serious problem and it’s no surprise to see the results this season. They kept going to the well the last few years and it finally ran out of water.
In addition to Manny’s behavior, this is why I don’t see the logic in adding aging vets to patch holes. We’ve seen how this strategy has been a disaster in recent years and it’s obvious that major changes need to made.
The reason why I’m big on Kemp is not only because if his talent and age – but he would fill a huge need for this club (a young stud outfielder) for the next 5 years when the market for outfielders is horsehit this offseason and next.
That’s extremely important to highlight when you consider that they are going to need at least two outfielders next offseason when the combination of Nady, Matsui, and Damon all hit free agency at the end of 2009.
I’d rather find one long term solution this offseason and worry about another next offseason instead of being forced to find two solutions a year from now in a horseshit market for outfielders.
Plus, having 2/3 of your outfield occupied by huge talents like Kemp and Jackson in 2010 (both 25 and under) goes a long way towards balancing out the age and factor with the rest of the lineup.
They need to tear the lineup apart and it needs to happen sooner rather than later because they would only be delaying the inevitable.
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