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Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

Stop the madness

1. Wang has been undergoing a fairly dramatic change in his pitching this year. Some days he has it, some days he doesn't. It happens. Live with it. Die with it.

2. Andy always sucks in the middle of the season, but when he 'needs' a good game, somehow he manages to pull one out. But if you had to start ONE guy from this staff in a pressure game...would you still choose AP? (I would take my chances with him)

3. Rasner (I think this is correct) has been victimized more by the offense failing him and not his pitching failing him (uh, Oakland start notwithstanding, but even that was a clinic in hitting to the op field and THAT was the catcher's fault moreso than the pitcher's fault)

4. Mike Mussina is currently the "ace" of the staff...isn't that a laugh (was it jscape or anaconda who called Moose's return to form? I forget, but one of them called it last year).

5. Joba is doing just fine as a starter, and, all things considered, the bullpen has held up just fine since his transition.

6. We've got exciting young kids who can come up later in the season and make a difference both in the lineup and in the pen.

7. We have tradeable assets for midseason moves should they be absolutely necessary.



We STILL do not have our healthy stable starting rotation. We STILL do not have a healthy productive offense.

and yet, we're only 6 games back.

In the last week, we've had more come from behind wins than we had in all of April and May.

The funniest, strangest statistic I'm seeing --

Take a look around the AL, specifically, look at home/away records -- do you see that only ONE team has a winning record on the road (LA) and, who's that tied for second best road record? NY (and here's a laugh -- they have second best road win percentage in the  AL at .486)

Things aren't YET the disaster so many are making them out to be.

They are on a 7/10 run. They are only 6 games back. Boston is not unbeatable (unless they're home). Tampa is playing above their heads (but they are a good club, better than the press gave them credit for).

We're still in that stretch of more home games than away games up until the AS break.

Given that Boston is running at .600 for the season so far, here are win totals and win percentage projections for the remainder of the season that the Yanks need to achieve to compete for the AL East or the Wild Card:

90 (.585)
92 (.606)
95 (.638)
97 (.660)

Of those numbers, 90 and 92 wins is not unrealistic -- this team CAN play .600 ball the rest of the season -- the question is, Will they or won't they.

The scary part is that, if they can maintain some stability in the rotation and bullpen, .660 the rest of the way is not impossible (not unlike last season).

I think they make their move now, with a good swing versus the NL, do the NY grudge match smackdown, hit Boston up for a 3 spot on 4th of July weeknd and they're atop the division two days later beating Tampa at home on July the 8th.

(So, IF it actually happens that way...now there's a record of it and if it doesn't I can simply point to the smoking mushrooms next to my computer and blame them).

 

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