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Me, Panic?

I've always thought of myself as a realist, though I'm inclined to push in favor of whichever argument seems to be neglected. In Yankee Land, that often means that I'm an optimist.

But I can't quite muster it tonight.

It's not that we just lost a game in extra innings to the first-place Tampa Bay Rays (think about that for a minute), and it's not that the bats have been stifled at the Trop, that Kei Igawa made a start, or that the young guns have struggled.

I'm concerned because I don't see the statistical evidence that this team can turn things around like last year's team.

This time last year, the Yanks were 17-19, two games under .500 and 8 games out of first place. At the moment, the Yanks stand 19-21, two games under .500 and 5 losses in back of the Rays.

Long term readers will remember that I spent most of last season pointing to the Yanks' Pythag record to show that they had been more unlucky than bad. While they didn't make up the unlucky games they lost early in the season, they eventually played to their potential. I felt vindicated for my optimism.

This season, we would only expect the Yankees to weigh in at 20-20, which means that so far, their record matches the quality of their performance. This is far from a death sentence for the season; but we need to see genuine improvement from the offense and the pitching. And we need to see it soon.

I'm not hitting the panic button yet- but I want to let you know that I've been eying it.

0 recs  |  Comment 16 comments

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Just tread water till everyones healthy...

I think we be ok once we get back Arod/Posada. Molina along with Endsberg/Gonzalez are killing us on Offense. Someone needs to slap Cano around too.

by AdamC on May 14, 2008 12:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Panic button

I’d be more inclined to panic if the Red Sox got off to a huge start like they did last season and the offense was this bas with both A-Rod and Posada healthy.

All things considered, I’m surprised they’ve managed to stay this close with all the bad luck they’ve endured already.

Unlike last season, TB is helping the Yanks in a sense because they’re beating the Red Sox this season when they weren’t doing it last season.

by anaconda on May 14, 2008 12:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i agree

it’s hard to panic when you look up and see the Rays atop the standings. no offense to them, i think they’re a great young team, but they have about the same chance as the Marlins do of actually keeping this up and winning the division.

maybe somebody should post a calendar that says “July” on it in Cano’s locker. if Robbie only convinced himself that it was July every month, he’d probably bat over .500.

by SBakerTheTouchdownMaker on May 14, 2008 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pythag record?

What the $&@* is a pythag record? Let’s not Bill James the crap out of the real game of baseball. The Bill Jamesing of the game has given us starting pitchers who are done after 100 pitches and a plethora of 6th inning, 7th inning and 8th inning “specialists.” Also, we now have a ton of hitters taking pitches right down the middle in order to get the pitch count up on the starter so he can be removed earlier in the game – so we can “get into the bullpen.”

So instead of knocking the starter out by hitting him hard and being aggressive at the plate, we are now trying to pitch count him out of the game.

How about wins and losses only. Those that actaully happen in a game.

You don’t win titles based upon your pythag record. All winning teams are lucky. Those that seem to win by being lucky – such as those teams which win with bloop hits or a wild pitch in the 10th inning. Or maybe the ball your backup first baseman (Tony Clark)hits bounces over the wall for a ground rule double instead of staying in the field of play for a playoff series win over the Red Sox in 2004.

Those teams that always seem to win via luck are those teams that put themselves into position in order to “win by being lucky.” Lucky teams usually do not make fielding mistakes, sometimes get a hit with a runner in scoring position and run the bases well. These are all things the Tampa Bay Rays have done better than the Yankees these past two games and is why the Rays are in first place with the best record in the American League.

Also, by Bill Jamesing the game, your teams manager takes out his very effective starter (Wang) out of the game after 7 complete innings? Why? Because his friggin’ pitch count was at 101 pitches? What kind of horseshit, pussy manager did Cashman hire? A good manager lets his top starter go for as long as he looks fresh and strong. Wang was cruising along in this game until the Bill James chart called for Joe Girardi to take out Wang.

Imagine in 1978 if Bob Lemon tried to take out Ron Guidry in a 1-0 game, or if Billy Martin tried to take out Catfish Hunter after 7 complete. Oh, wait, those managers never would have thought twice to run his starting ace pitcher out for the 8th and then the 9th inning.

Then when Wang is officially out of the game, why do you only throw your best non-closer relief pitcher only one inning? Joba only throws 15 pitches and is pulled after one inning!

Can someone please send Joe Girardi a set of balls so he can be a real manager and not have to consult some chart or call Bill James or Brian Cashman with regards to how to handle a pitching staff.

By the way – too late to push the panic button – and even if the button got pushed what would happen? You guys want Cashman to trade a bunch of young playes for Ichiro or Griffey, Jr. or maybe we should sign Barry Bonds.

by thejobarules on May 14, 2008 12:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

100 pitches

Alright, small rant here, but one of the things that gets me more worked up than a good hitter sac bunting is the notion that old-time pitchers regularly threw as many pitches as were needed to get through a game.
All reasonable analysis (not to mention footage of actual games) indicates that 100 pitches has always been the natural top out point in a single game- for most of baseball’s history hitters took a “see the ball- hit the ball” approach to batting, and this allowed the 100 pitches to get deeper into a game than we are used to seeing now.
Pee Wee Reese said it best, “If I had my career to play over, one thing I’d do differently is swing more. Those 1200 walks I got- nobody remembers them.”
Hitting has evolved (plus the ball is juiced, the players are juiced, and the mound is flat). Expecting complete games is unreasonable in the modern game- and it has nothing to do with statistics.

As for your question, Pythag is one of the best predictors we have of the connection between Runs Scored, Runs Allowed, and Wins. It’s as simple as that.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on May 14, 2008 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just a quick note

Pitch counts weren’t instated to satisfy Bill James. They were studied by almost every baseball scout as a way to keep all these young fireballing pitchers from blowing out their arms. A quick look at Kerry Wood and Mark Prior is the most glaring example of why pitch counts are generally instated, and not generally a bad idea.

The truth, of course, is that some pitchers are just more durable than others. Some pitchers can go out and throw 120 pitches every night and end each season with 220 innings pitched. But most pitchers can’t, and teams would rather see their ace throw 200 innings a year and pitch for 15 years than have them throw 230 innings and 10 complete games and only give them 3 seasons. Some pitchers have it in them (Halladay), other’s don’t.

So really, it has nothing to do with Bill James. Rather, pitch counts have everything to do with making sure Wang and Joba’s arms are still attached to their shoulders in three years.

by DeathSquire36 on May 14, 2008 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus I think

he wanted to get Joba in the game to get some work in.

Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.

by Edwantsacracker on May 14, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Running up pitch counts to get into the bullpen (specifically, the middle relief) is not something I would call “Bill Jamesing the game.”

It’s just smart strategy because middle relief is usually the weakest link of an opponent’s pitching staff. Stats and common sense have shown for decades that it’s much more difficult to win when you’re starters leave the game early.

The Yankee offense was built around this strategy in the late 90s and it worked out pretty well for them.

And for the record, every manager starts thinking about the pen once their starters get near the 100-pitch mark. Girardi is no different than any other manager in that sense.

The game has evolved the last 30 years and there is nothing you or I can do about it. The game isn’t played the same way now as it was in 1978.

Hell, closers back then threw 2-3 IP without batting an eye. You’ll never see a closer go 3 IP nowadays and 2 IP is something most managers try hard to avoid.

by anaconda on May 14, 2008 1:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Chamberlain

went two innings in 6 of his 19 regular season appearances last season. Plus, he went two innings in both of his ALDS games – midges notwithstanding.

Most managers start thinking about their bullpens whenever the starter lets a runner on base from the sixth inning on.

I know all the stats regarding how the game has changed – but the game really hasn’t changed. You still need to hit the ball to win games, walks will kill a pitcher and your best pitchers should pitch the most innings.

I can see 5 years from now the Yankee manager is still going to limit Chamberlain’s starts to 7 innings or 100 piches – whichever comes first because the Yankee brass wants to save his arm for the future and not “burn him out” or get him injured.

Meanwhile Joba will then have a bunch of 13 wins seasons…and no World Series rings.

by thejobarules on May 14, 2008 1:39 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I know what pythag is

it is on every team page on baseball-reference.com. But teams don’t win Division titles based upon their pythag record, but their actual wins and losses.

Studies have shown that the same amount of pitches are throw in games today as they were in the 1950’s, but now starting pitchers throw less innings per game. If the starters (the best pitchers) are throwing less, then the middle relievers (the “worst” pitchers) throw a higher percentage of pitches.

The truth is that in every era, pitchers handle the workload for which they have been conditioned. Modern pitchers haven’t been trained and developed to throw as many pitches as earlier pitchers did, and so they don’t throw as much. Throwing a baseball builds arm strength – not strength liek big biceps, but strength in the ligaments and tendons within the joints. Minor league starters only go 5 or 6 innings per start – no matter how they are doing and they are conditioned to pitch like babies in the majors. They are not allowed to pitch very often.
Human physiology didn’t suddenly change in the late 1980s. The arm can withstand the rigors of throwing the baseball – if the arm practices by throwing the baseball.
The late 60’s – to early 1980’s is basically the last decade or so where pitch counts and innings limits were out the door. And there were so many pitchers who could throw and throw, inning after inning, game after game, year after year.
Ryan, Carlton, Seaver, Sutton, Gibson, Hunter, Palmer, Stottlemyre, Kaat, Blyleven etc. and the list goes on during the era of the four man rotation.
Not many aces nowadays and nothing but arm injuries in the era of the five man, innings limit, pitch count era.
For example, only 76 pitchers have started 450 or more games – with Kenny Rogers becoming the latest in early May 2008. That equates roughly to 30 starts for 15 straight seasons – a pretty good career. Only 10 of those 76 starters are from the modern era of pitch counts, etc while 26 are from the era of the four man rotations of the late 60’s early 80’s and most of those careers are far in excess of 450 starts.

By the way DeathSquire 36 – A recent interview on WFAN in New York with Cubs GM Jim Hendry had Hendry saying that Woods’ and Prior’s injuries were not related to overuse by the manager. Hendry said exams of Woods’ elbow revealed ligament damage as far back as high school. I personally believe it was Woods’ across the body motion and horrible mechanics (and his love for the slider) which contributed to his elbow problems. And Prior’s shoulder problems were caused by an on field collision with Brian Giles which fractured Prior’s shoulder but this fracture DID NOT show up on an MRI and Prior continued to pitch with a fractured shoulder.
I do feel however that pitchers under 25 should throw mostly fastballs and changeups and limit their use of all breaking pitches.

by thejobarules on May 14, 2008 2:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re:

You can cite pitchers of a different era and all of it means nothing in today’s game. No matter how hard or how often you beat that drum, the game isn’t going to change back to the old days and the way pitchers were developed.

Chris Russo beats this drum on M&MD all the time.

MLB is obviously an enormous business. And the powers that be realized many years ago that an increase in offense and home runs is going to translate to increased revenue. So there have been many changes to the game that cater to the hitters as Jscape noted above (juiced ball, juiced hitters, flat mound, smaller ballparks, the DH).

Also, because good pitchers are such a huge commodity (and making huge sums of money) – organizations are also less willing to take risks with their arms.

I guess we don’t have to like it, but there ain’t a damn thing we can do about it.

by anaconda on May 14, 2008 4:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree

the truth is that in every era, pitchers handle the workload for which they have been conditioned.

This is a fallacy.

Pitchers handled the work load their arms and shoulders could tolerate. Most old school pitchers flamed out after a few years in the league- many of them with arm injuries that at the time went undiagnosed or untreated because we didn’t understand the way the human body works as well as we do now.

The most dominant lefty to ever pick up a baseball was out of the game at 32 because of his heavy workload- how many other kids never get a shot because some high school coach figures “he’s young” and leaves him out there for a 150 pitch outing, or pitches him multiple innings on back to back days?

You, Bill James, and I all agree that both the five man rotation and the 100 pitch count is overkill, but these are multimillion dollar arms we’re talking about, so the current culture is not likely to change. I do expect to see a team try (and succeed with) a 4 man rotation at some point in the next several years, but they will be the exception (and universally hailed for their grittiness).

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on May 15, 2008 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Back to the panic button

Last year at around this time I’m gonna guess that ARod had about 15 HR’s and 35 RBI’s.

This year he has 4 and 10.

The pitching has outperformed last year’s pitching by such a wide margin (in my head at least) that the offense doesn’t need to be 968 runs good, it just need to get back to average. That will happen sooner rather than later, and wins will result. I like Melky as much as anyone, but the sooner he moves from 6th to 9th in the batting order the better off this team will be.

Interleague will help. Aside from the Mets, I think the Yanks will clean up against this year’s NL opponents, all of whom stink.

"Well, that kind of puts a damper on even a Yankees win."
-- Phil Rizzuto after hearing about the Pope's death

by matthaggs on May 14, 2008 9:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Matt Hagggs a voice of reason

I think you’re right. I really hope you’re right. I do, I hope it I hope it.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on May 14, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am hoping that

Pettitte will get our of this funk he has been in his last 3 or 4 starts, and I am prepared and expecting him to be better.

But on the other hand I wouldn’t be surprised in the very least if Mussina gave us some horrible starts down the road.

Rasner has been better than I think we have a right to expect of him, but the injury to Hughes was a major disappointment.

Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.

by Edwantsacracker on May 14, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jscape! the panic button is attractive

because the team has just not played well.

I do not think it is surprising that they haven’t. As the season started what did we say? We said we needed about league average performance from the young starters. So, that’s a down.

We said we needed lass injuries. We said in particular we needed to avoid injuries to Arod, Jeter and Posada. Because we didn’t really have replacements for them. So, not so great.

We said we needed better bullpen work. We have it.

We said needed a bounce bacl from Moose. Knock wood.

We said we needed “not too much regression from Arod and Posada’s career years.

Well things have not gone well. The team has not been good. I still have faith in the Young guns. I have had moments when I started to 2nd guess Santana.

Now I will tell you why I am panicking. I am not sure Posada is not done catching for THE YEAR. If he pushes it too much he may BE DONE.

Think of the mess we have if he’s another good hit bad D first baseman DH.

O My Goodness.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on May 14, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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