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Jorge and the Hall

Rebecca over at This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes asked me if I thought Posada was a good Cooperstown candidate. A discussion ensued, where we both thought that if Posada's career ended today, he would be a borderline candidate.

We decided the discussion was worth writing about (all statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference).

Click Read more to find out how Jorge and Yogi stack up against each other...

Star-divide

We started by looking at games caught; in Yogi's day, as you probably know, the season was shorter- 154 games as opposed to the 162 today. Taking this into consideration, we find that for the seven years between Berra's age 25-31, he caught 130 games or more each seasons, nearly 85% or more.

Jorge has played in 130 games every year since he was 28 (8 season), so we can look at their regular season offensive statistics without (totally) comparing apples and oranges.

We used OPS+, which is OBP+SLG adjusted for league average and ballpark factors. Again, we find numbers that are strikingly similar:
Berra: 135, 130, 137, 140, 137, 120, 142
Posada: 139, 117, 121, 144, 131, 109, 122, 154

While Berra was more consistent, Posada's best seasons peaked higher than Yogi.

From there, we moved on to one of the "clutch" factors, ie, postseason play. Given that Berra and Posada have both played in a similar number of postseasons (a lot!) it's worth a look, albeit with the caveat that Berra only played in the World Series, while Posada's played in LDS, LCS and World Series.

Unlike Berra, Posada's never won a World Series MVP (it's hard to, with Jeter and Rivera in the same line up): over 96 games, Posada is .236/.352/.379, well below his regular-season standards.
Berra, on the other hand, posted a .274/.359/.452 line over 75 games, close to his career standard of .285/.348/.482.

The one offensive area in which Berra soundly excels over Posada is in strikeouts; Berra's career high over a season is 38, while Posada has struck out 29 times in two different months (June of 2002 and 2003). However, this isn't to say Berra didn't find other ways to make outs; merely that he was more of a contact hitter. Berra averaged 54 walks a year while Jorge averages 87.

In terms of defense Berra threw out 141 of 295 base-stealers--just under half. Jorge, on the other hand, has caught 337 of 1139, just over a third. Base stealing has apparently become much more common now than it was in the 1940s and 1950s; both player's contemporaries have similar steal attempts. It's a shame we don't have the stats from early in Yogi's career when he was likely tested more often and established himself (the records from before 1956 are incomplete. Either way we have to give him the defensive nod. Yogi also averaged fewer than 10 wild pitches a year; Jorge has averaged 34- with a bigger glove. Defense goes to Yogi hands down.

It is also worth a note that Berra was a 15 time all-star, while Posada has played most of his career in the same league as Pudge Rodriguez. The writers have never taken to Posada the way they took to Yogi- Jorge has fewer funny stories and many more strikeouts. While that might not matter long term, I think it's an indicator that Jorge will have a hard time mustering HoF support- the writers will be inclined to drop him in the Bernie/Paulie Very Good category.

The last thing we loooked at was Yogi's Hall of Fame induction.
Yogi Berra was elected in the 1972 class, with 85% of the vote, on his second ballot. Major Caveat: In 1971, the first year of Berra's eligibility, he lead the vote with 67% (you need 75% for induction).

Conclusion:
Rebecca and I both agree--Jorge is in. Offensively, Posada has higher peaks, and the higher career OBP also stands out (he's got a better eye), while defensively and in the playoffs, Berra gets the nod.

However, both have played in a similar number of games and made the postseason a similar number of years. Posada's abilities have often been overshadowed by the other stars on the team--Jeter, especially, and Rivera (not to mention Alex Rodriguez, etc)--who many of us assume are first ballot HoFers.

Someone who compares as closely to Berra as Posada, should be in, regardless of the talent surrounding him. We'll see if the writers figure that out.

1 recs  |  Comment 13 comments

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I believe

he is a sure canidate...

In this steroid era, his career looks very impressive and his name hasn't surfaced with any allegations. Catcher's like Piazza and Pudge will make it easy for Jorge to get in because there will be so much controversey when there time comes...

The real question is whether or not another Yankee will ever wear the #20.. The fact that they gave up 21 to (cough) Latroy Hawkins, i'm not too sure..

by Soriano NY 12 on Apr 9, 2008 10:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jorge ...

Cue the Hall of Fame music ...
When comparing him to a HofFer like Gary Carter he matches quite favorably. Carter obviously had more power and was stuck in Montreal, but batting average (.266), slugging (.439), ops (.774) and fielding percentage (.991) are all below Jorge's numbers+Jorge has the rings!

Comparing him to HofFers like Berra, Campy, he's also right in the mix except for the lack of multiple MVPs.

I think Soriano NY is right that the steroid era--and the fact that Jorge has never been implicated will build his case for the hall.

I'd be curious to see where folks rank Jorge with the other Yankee catching greats Dickey, Berra, Howard, Gibbs, Munson ... I'd actually put Jorge ahead of Munson, a click ahead of Howard and a tick behind Berra and Dickey.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 9, 2008 12:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

There are only 16 catchers in the HOF

From the negro leagues Gibson (31-46) Mackey (18-47!!) and Santop who played before 1940 but I do not have dates.

Buck Ewing and Roger Bresnahan played before WWI.

Ray Schalk is a bit of a tweener playing 1912-1929 but I think I'll group him with the golden age catchers, Mickey Cochrane (25-37), Bill Dickey (28-46), Gabby Hartnet (22-41), Rick Ferrell (24-47) and Ernie Lombardi (31-47). These guys are storied players but I do not think the numbers should be compared. I will note that some of these guys had very long careers. They were 5 or 6 simultaneous catcher when there were only 16 teams.

That leaves us with 5 'modern' catchers.
Berra
Campanella
Bench
Carter
Fisk

It is hard to say that right now Jorge doesn't belong with that group. On the other hand there is no one here he's hands down better than.

However, taking Campy out of the discussion, Jorge might have to put up a few more good years. He clearly cannot end like Mantle or Mays who played beyond their great skills and dragged the career numbers down with weak years at the end.

Campy is a special case with the accident shortened career and pro Brooklyn nostalgia. In my memory he was the best I ever saw. But I was very young.

I think Jorge should make it.

I think Elston Howard should be in.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Apr 9, 2008 1:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If Howard goes in so does Jorge

I don't remember Ellie Howard, but the numbers are startlingly similar. Actually, take away the 3 MVPs by Berra and you have very similar numbers as well. Frankly, there's a number of guys in the Hall who arguably don't belong ... Jorge is less of a justification than a bunch of them. So long as he doesn't hang around too long he's likely in.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 9, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ellie taught me at a catchers clinic when I was in Babe Ruth league

A quiet gentleman he wasone of the league's top hitters. He was a gold glove winner.
He was the Yanks first black player. He was the AL's first black MVP.

It is a shame he's so forgotten.

If I get an away Jersy it will be a 32 to go with my pinstripe 7.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Apr 9, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm...

There are several catchers playing today or just done playing with similar numbers to Jorge aren't there?

But did any catchers hit like Berra back in his day?

Jorge might get in because of his consistency, but to me Hall of Fame means how much better than your peers were you during the course of your career?

"Just when they think they got all the answers, I change the questions."
-- Roddy Piper

by matthaggs on Apr 9, 2008 3:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking

that we didn't really tackle that. But when I look around the league in the last 15-20 years I see Piazza, Rodriguez, and FIsk. Lopez and Lieberthal were better than I expected them to be, but they're clearly below Posada, ditto Varitek. Jason Kendal's first five years are really something to see, but after that the power just evaporates.

So I guess the question is: is Posada the least of the Piazza, Pudge, Fisk group, or the best of the Varitek, Liberthal, Lopez group?

I see Jorge going in 4th or 5th shot. I don't think he'll hurt his chances "hanging on too long."

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 9, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Current crop ...

Take away Pudge (regardless of steroid issues) and there's no one better than Jorge. Not Varitek, not Lopez, not Mauer (although give him some time). I don't think he waits that long. He's been at the top of his position for about a decade. Without an MVP he goes in on the 2-3 try. With an MVP he goes in 2.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 9, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

except I would call the curent crop 1995 - present. That's when the game changed offensively, and that's when Jorge's career started.

Using that, Piazza is ahead of Jorge. If they stay healthy and stay catching, Mauer and Victor Martinez could have better numbers as well.

So of "today's" catchers he's third best, unless Pudge gets snubbed because of 'roids.

And just before today's crop there's also Lance Parrish, who has some good power numbers.

I think he needs two or three more good years. Another ring would help too.

"Just when they think they got all the answers, I change the questions."
-- Roddy Piper

by matthaggs on Apr 9, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Campy was awsome

But Yogi was a unique talent. He hit a lot of bad pitches but made very good contact. Therefore few walks, few strikeouts. Yogi and Campy were much better hitters than their competitors. I'll think about how to look up the other catchers. Is there some way to get lineups from say 1957? Seems I remember the Brave catches might have been Del Crandell??

Both Yogi and Elston were very strong recievers. Jorge is not as good with the glove.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Apr 9, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Del Crandall

Career G AB R H 2B 3B HR GS RBI BB IBB SO SH SF HBP GIDP AVG OBP SLG
16 Years 1,573 5,026 585 1,276 179 18 179 4 657 424 95 477 68 42 21 162 .254 .312 .404

He was a 5 time all star with at least 1 ring.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Apr 9, 2008 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gus Triandos

Career G AB R H 2B 3B HR GS RBI BB IBB SO SH SF HBP GIDP AVG OBP SLG
13 Years 1,206 3,907 389 954 147 6 167 8 608 440 49 636 26 32 21 128 .244 .322 .413

Gus was Yogi's backup on the 58 All Star team. He made it in 59 too. So all the catchers in Yogi's day did not hit like him. Not even the All Stars.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Apr 9, 2008 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jorge

Saw this discussion on Rebecca's blog and took up the debate with a fellow friend and sabermetric guru.

Our bottom line conclusion was: right now Posada is borderline. A few more good years and he's a lock.

I did my own blog post on this topic, inspired by your discussion. If you're interested in the details its here:
http://pinstripers.blogspot.com/2008/04/posada-for-hall-of-fame.html

Nice job. I'll add you to my blogroll!

by GoOrange on Apr 9, 2008 5:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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