The Joba debate - again
by anaconda on Apr 7, 2008 1:27 PM EDT
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Unfortunately, it is a topic that will be discussed all season long but yesterday’s dominant performance by Chamberlain has once again sparked the Joba in the rotation vs. bullpen debate in the NY media.
Jim Baumbach of Newsday and Jack Curry of the NY Times both addressed this issue yet again this morning after watching yesterday’s game in the late innings. Baumbach’s main argument for keeping Joba in the pen is that the alternative is Kyle Farnsworth and a lot of blown leads.
While that may be true if Farnsworth is indeed handed the 8th inning role later in the season, my problem with that analysis is that Joe Girardi has at least two months to figure out who the best guy is to fill that role once Joba moves to the rotation (as the plan has been all along). Given his long track record and early returns in 2008, Farnsworth will not be handed that role by default. He’ll have to earn it and every Yankee fan reading this blog knows he won’t. The same argument can be said for LaTroy Hawkins.
Girardi is a smart guy and he’s going to go with the hot hand. He's not going to automatically hand the 8th inning keys over to a guy who hasn't proved he can pass the driving test.
Shifting focus, the main argument of Curry’s piece is that it’s no coincidence that all three Yankee wins on the young season are games that the Joba/Mo combo came in to seal the deal. My problem with his simplistic analysis is that he ignores the starting pitching performances in said games.In their 3 wins, Yankee starters are a combined 2-0, 1.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP. In their 3 losses, Yankee starters are a combined 0-3, 8.31 ERA, 2.15 WHIP. Remove the painful Kennedy start on Friday night (2.1 IP, 6 ER) and you’re still talking about a combined 5.06 ERA, 1.87 WHIP in two starts.
Obviously, these are all small samples for either side of this debate given the team has played just six games. However, both of the authors ignore the most glaring weakness of this club since they won their last pennant in 2003 and why they have failed to win a postseason series since 2004.
Clearly, the answer is starting pitching. Of course, the Yankee offense is stacked and they will win a lot of games in the regular season by simply outslugging their opponents. Unfortunately, that strategy rarely works against the elite teams of the AL in October or they would have fared better than a 4-9 record over their last 13 postseason games.
This is why Joba needs to make that switch to the rotation in 2008 despite how dominant he can be in the pen. A strong 1-2 punch in the bullpen is hardly a useful weapon in the postseason if the starters are incapable of handing over a lead or simply keeping their team in the game.
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Cashman
keeps talking as though it is a given he will move to the rotation this season. See Joel Sherman's story from this weekend:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04072008/sports/yankees/matter_of_jo_mo_105331.htm
When push comes to shove though, will he have the nuts to make the move??? A GM should never make a decision based on public opinion, but the general Joe fan is going to apeshit if/when Joba gets pulled from the pen.
My stance hasn't changed: if the Yanks want a shot at the title this season, Joba should stay where he is. If they are thinking about the future, then they should do this move this year and get it over with.
I get your point about the strong starts in each Yankee win, but by the same token I doubt yesterday's game would have ended the same way if Joba was on the dugout bench in a hat and gloves waiting for his next start. Ditto opening day.
"Just when they think they got all the answers, I change the questions."
-- Roddy Piper
by matthaggs on Apr 7, 2008 1:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well stated ...
As much as I like seeing #62 stroll to the bump and embarass hitters, I think his true value is as a starter. Starting pitching wins the big games in October, and we simply have too many questions with our starters right now to think we can win big.
Can Wang pitch in October, or will he again lose "touch" with his sinker?
Does anyone really think Mussina can win in October? I'm not certain he's going to get out of April or May.
Mussina doesn't have the wheels anymore, and he needs to be moved. I doubt Girardi or Cashman will do that. I fear we are stuck with him unless he really is abysmal. I'd make the move early, and give Joba the slot. I'd turn his role over to Ohlendorf and take my chances.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on Apr 7, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen
Unless Ohlendorf or Bruney steps up, I don't see the Yankees moving him from a role in which he has been incredibly successful. I think the Yanks will begin to parade their AAA pitchers through the Bornx in late April/May if the plan is still on and Hawkins and Farnsworth continue to disappoint.
by faketeams on Apr 7, 2008 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Should He Stay?
I pretty much agree with matthaggs on this one. AT THE MOMENT, it seems as though Joba is irreplacable in the pen. No one on the "B List" of bullpen occupants (those not named Joba or Mo) is capable of acheiving Joba's dominance, and it's hard to see the team reaching the postseason without him in that role. Spring training showed that he will struggle as a starter at times as he improves his secondary pitches while pitching with less velocity.
However, the Yankees may have additional starters/relievers in the minors who may be able to come close to Joba's effectiveness in the pen: Melancon, of course, but also Betances, and, maybe Sanchez, if healthy. On the major league roster, Ohlendorf is an intriguing candidate.
Joba *needs* to be converted into a starter sooner rather than later: his arsenal is too good to leave in the pen - that's giving away too many innings of potential excellence. But, if we are to win this year, the pen may be his home all year unless another prospect emerges.
by Four Train on Apr 7, 2008 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you had me worried
Starting a post with "I pretty much agree with matthaggs" is not at all promising. Much of the rest of the post, however is reasonable. I do not agree he should be in the pen if he's a promising starter. With the Yankee hitters an ordinary pitcher will give them a good chance of winning by staggering through the game with 6 innings and 4 runs.
The most important player to a team is that day's starting pitcher.
I think O and some of the boys in Scranton will make Joba's release from the pen possible. There will be much whinning if we blow a lead here and there. But that just doesn't happen often enough to compensate for the loss of a starter who should be a star.
All you "Keep Joba in the pen" guys. How many games did we lead after 7 last year and lose? Give us the numbers please. You'll have to say, bad as the pen was last year, it was not an 8th inning problem. Most of our losses got away from us way earlier, when a quality start should have been keeping the bullpen guys playing cards out there.
A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)
by Cbeck3 on Apr 7, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ouch
I don't know what the record is, but I imagine its pretty good, as it would be for most teams with a guy like Rivera to clean up messes.. Throw in the Yankees offense, and you can cover up a lot of mistakes. But Mo is getting old, and his 8th inning appearances need to be cut down.
I'm fairly confident that if anyone else out in the pen besides # 62 entered yesterday's game for example, things would not have worked out as nicely as they did.
Joba makes the job look simple, but its not. There is a mental aspect to excelling in that role along with a physical aspect. Farnsworth throws just as hard as Joba and has a slider almost as nasty, but I wouldn't trust him with a 10 run lead. I don't know if Ohlendorf or any of these kids is the answer, but I do know that they're not Joba, and there will be growing pains.
If you want Joba to be a starter, it will probably cost you a chance to watch playoff baseball this fall. And if there are no bugs around, the Yanks have as good a shot as anyone to win.
You're right, it's not entirely an 8th inning problem. But if the 8th and the 9th are secure, less outs need to be secured by the lesser pitchers.
"Just when they think they got all the answers, I change the questions."
-- Roddy Piper
by matthaggs on Apr 7, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+30 IP
If the Yanks are going to gradually increase Joba's innings to 200 per season as a starter, they cannot let him throw just 90 this year. This would put him in the rotation with a full workload in 2011. (140 in 2008, 170 in 2009, 200 in 2010 is the current schedule.)
by faketeams on Apr 7, 2008 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Indeed
And that gradual increase in innings is the reason they don't want to wait until 2009 to put him in the rotation.
Leaving him in the pen all season will retard his growth as a starter and the team will be in the very same predicament at this time next year in regards to his innings cap.
by anaconda on Apr 7, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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