Joba's Curve

by jscape2000 on Apr 7, 2008 11:49 AM EDT in Analysis Comment 17 comments

If you watched yesterday's game, especially Joba's domination of Willy Aybar, you should understand why Joba is a starter in the long-term.

Gameday uses its cameras to keep track of each pitches break in two different ways. The first, which they call "break," is a simple measure of the distance between the farthest extremes of the balls movement. The second is called Pf/x, and I'm not going to worry about it in this post.

Joba started Aybar out with a curveball that broke more than a foot; that's Joba's third best pitch (he's also got a changeup that is above average).
Joba came back with a fastball clocked at 101 in the stadium (the gun is juiced, Gameday clocked it at 96), but a fastball down in the zone with some wicked sink on it. Again according to Gameday, that fastball broke 4 inches. As a point of comparison, Wang's sinker breaks 6"-8", while Mo's cutter breaks around 5".
Joba then finished Aybar off with an 85MPH slider with an 8 inch break.

This is a pitcher built to go through a lineup multiple times- he won't always be this successful, but he's going to rank among the best pitchers in the league once he's built up the endurance to log 180-200 innings. One of the other prospects can scrap his third pitch and serve as the bridge to Mo- by midseason, a couple of them will be ready (Chris Britton and Jonathan Albaladejo are ready now). Joba needs to start as soon as possible.

I hope Moose pitches well tonight.

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More Joba

I'm in the middle of writing a thread about this topic, so you beat me to it.

I'm going to post it anyways because it addresses something else a bit more specific and a couple of articles I've read today.

by anaconda on Apr 7, 2008 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And another thing ...

No one is even talking about his changeup. I contend this will be the pitch that makes him a super-stud. The fastball, the slider, and even the curve are fine. But put abit of doubt in a hitter's head with a change, and you've got something.

It's abit unusual for a pitcher to have both a plus curve and plus slider. It's great that he has both of these in his arsenal. But from every pitching coach that I've known over my 25+ years, an effective change can be devastating--especially when coupled with a 100mph fb.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 7, 2008 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Joba has an innings limit,

and he should. He is an asset for the future we should take as good care of as we reasonably can. So, I'm good with him being in the pen for a while.

If we use him as a starter, and he's effective there, I'd rather have him at the strech run and playoffs than use him to come out of the gate quickly.

An injury or ineffectiveness in the current 5 is likely to force the move anyway.

He sure is fun to watch.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Apr 7, 2008 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Love the curve but...

I think you gotta keep him in the pen...

by John Amato on Apr 7, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I spent most of the off-season thinking about this

Love Joba time in the 8th (or 7th and 8th) but I think this kid has got to get a chance to show us what he is like as a starter. I'd rather he be a failed starter in the pen rather than a reliever just because that is what the team needed at the time. There is part of me that is reluctant to destroy the career Joba envisioned in his own head. I'd like to see him start. We may be blown away by THAT. We haven't seen what he has. How can we compare it and make a decision?

I think relegating him to the 8th just because we've had a drought there and know Mariano is in his waning years is just wrong. The more I think about it, the stronger I start to feel that its simply unfair for the sportswriters and the fans to decide how this kid's career is going to go because the Yankees can't seem to fill the position he's in now. He could be a dominant starter or a lights out reliever but I think that what he wants and what he feels he is capable of deserves a shot. We should at least SEE it before we just stick him in the pen and decide, whether he likes it or not, that he's our next closer.

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Apr 7, 2008 4:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Joba might have some of his own motives to being a starter. They make a lot more money. The going rate for a dominant start is about $20M per year and rising.

Mo just signed the richest contract in history for a closer, by a wide margin, and he's making $15M per season.

I know Joba has said all the right things to the media by declaring that he doesn't have a preference, but I would think the serious financial advantage as a starting pitcher down the road is something he has most definitely thought about.

by anaconda on Apr 7, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joba rules ... in the pen, but ...

I debated this last night with a friend of mine who is a head baseball coach for a South Carolina university, and he believes Joba should stay put. In his words, "Right now he gives the Yankees the best bridge to Mo and the best chance to win in 2008."

I argued that he should be in the rotation to see what he can do. I believe he might be someone special. Again I was told "You need to separate your personal interests in Joba from the team's interests. Is it about watching Joba win Cy Young's as a starter, or the Yankees winning championships in October?"

He offered a compelling argument, but as was the case with Eckersley, Righetti, Smoltz, even Mo, they were given an opportunity to start and then moved to the pen. Personally I would prefer to see Joba afforded that same opportunity--sooner than later.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 8, 2008 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand the argument

You need to separate your personal interests in Joba from the team's interests. Is it about watching Joba win Cy Young's as a starter, or the Yankees winning championships in October?

Your friend isn't taking into account that Joba in the rotation is the best thing for the team's long term interests and winning in October. I'm not concerned about him winning Cy Young Awards. My argument all along has been that he needs to make that switch because they need him most for October.

Simply put, a front line starter is far more valuable than a setup man. And this team's most glaring weakness over the last several years in October has been starting pitching.

I'll say it again because it's a point that needs to be emphasized:

What good does it do this team to have a great 1-2 punch in the pen if the team is losing by 4-5 runs in the 7th inning?

Unfortunately, that has been a pattern in October over the last 3 years and it's no coincidence that they haven't won a series during that span. Yankee starters have compiled a sickening 6.31 ERA and averaging only 4.2 IP per start over their last 13 postseason games.

There will be no more rings unless those numbers get significantly better. That is why Joba needs to be in the rotation.

by anaconda on Apr 8, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll give you his number ...

I was debating him with two rum and cokes in me at 10:30 pm. If I could have come at him with the same clarity and conviction that you offer here, I think I'd have won him over. Well put.
I'm with you 100%. Lemme know if you want his number.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 8, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, just direct him towards PA

I'm sure he wouldn't do it but I'd like to hear what he's got to say and pitching in general.

by anaconda on Apr 8, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be concerned ...

That Roth would chastise and berate him about his lack of knowledge--despite his resume and playing experience. :)

I will ask him.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 8, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But

there is a chance the rotation this year and beyond can be really good without Joba.

Hughes has ace potential, Pettitte pitched a gem last year, and you'd have to expect an improved Wang, especially if he gets to start at home. Beckett might be nasty, but who else in the AL can put 3 guys on the mound better than those three? (Well, Toronto can, but nobody here thinks much of them).

If you have Joba and Mo backing these guys up, I think that's a title contender.

You're focused on starting pitching, and it has been a problem in the playoffs no doubt, but you're unplugging one leak to stop up another.

"Just when they think they got all the answers, I change the questions."
-- Roddy Piper

by matthaggs on Apr 8, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This debate would end if we could clone Joba

and install one of them in the rotation. How cool would that be?

You're focused on starting pitching, and it has been a problem in the playoffs no doubt, but you're unplugging one leak to stop up another.

But strengthening the rotation has a domino affect on the middle relief.

Again, I think you and I just have a different philosophical approach in regards to building a pitching staff. In my opinion, the single most important element in building a championship ballclub is putting as many quality arms in the rotation as possible and back them up with a strong closer.

The middle relief doesn't have to be spectacular. They just need to be solid and versatile. They also won't get exposed if the starters are doing their job. I'm not naive enough to think that one of the other guys would be as dominant as Joba in that setup role. But I do think there are other very good arms who could step up to fill it.

by anaconda on Apr 8, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree to disagree (again)

A few random thoughts:

The season is only 7 games old, and there have already been 3 games that could have easily gone the other way if Joba wasn't out there. Yes the starting pitching was very good in those games, but if there wasn't someone to finish them off their efforts could have gone for naught.

In his current role, Joba can help the team win 2 or 3 games out of 5 instead of 1 out of 5, and he can be just as important in a 10-9 game as a 2-1 game. And with him out there, losers like Hawkins and Farnsworth won't be needed often for important outs, and young guys like Ohlendorf can ease their way into things. And I've seen too much of Bad Bruney to start believing in Good Bruney this early. That hair isn't fooling me.

I think its easier to find a pretty good starting pitcher(s), either through the farm or trades/free agency, than it is to find not just a setup man, but the most dominant, lights out, you have no chance setup man in baseball - which is what Joba is becoming.

"Just when they think they got all the answers, I change the questions."
-- Roddy Piper

by matthaggs on Apr 8, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Agree to disagree

Actually, the most difficult thing to do in this game is to find a front line starter the likes of Beckett, Verlander, or perhaps King Felix.

Now, we don't know if Joba will morph into that kind of pitcher, but the Yankee front office and scouts from around the majors believe he can. He needs to be given that opportunity.

If he fails, then okay, put him back in the pen. Until then, I still say it's a waste of his talent to leave him in the role he's in now.

Championship ballclubs start and end with starting pitching.

by anaconda on Apr 8, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, the Yankees

arguably won their most recent 4 rings without a front line starter the likes of Beckett, Verlander or King Felix. They won with dependable, but not usually spectacular 6 inning outings from their starters, plus a pretty lights out 7, 8 and 9 innings.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 8, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, no....

I'm not comparing the top flight starters now to the Yankee starters of the late 90s. What I am doing is emphasizing the need for stacking the rotation with as many quality arms as possible.

I've made that distinction so many times that my fingers are developing blisters.

My point to Haggs was simply that front line starters are the most difficult talents to find in this game.

by anaconda on Apr 8, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs