A lot of buzz have been going around on the Blue Jays possibbly taking over the East this year. many "experts" took them over the Yankees, and quiet frankly. that's just an absurd prediction based on not facts and logics, but bias and false hopes.

Here's the reasons why the Jays will most likely be once again, a good but not great also ran in the East.

1. HEALTH HEALTH HEALTH: the Jays have been sunk badly over the last few years by health reasons. particularly last year, when their healthiest vet was Frank Thomas, a man who was almost finished by injury just two years earlier. beside Thomas / Hill and Rios and to a lesser extend McDonald, their entire lineup was basically struck down by injury.

Reed Johnson: major back injury, killed performance and now possibily career

Vernon Wells: major shoulder injury that completely killed his performance

Lyle Overbay: suffered a HBP on hand that ended up having surgery on. # took big hit after injury

Gregg Zuan: took pitch off hand. similar to Overbay.

Troy Glaus: foot issues.

So what do they do this winter? add in David Eckstein and Scott Rolen. for those of you who don't see the obvious irony of this ...

games played in 05/06/07

Eckstien (aka the god of grit and scrap!) : 158/123/117

Rolen: 56/141/112

it doesn't exactly take a scientist to figure out that neither of these guys have been anywhere near a picture of health over the last 3 season. Rolen's injuries have been espically serious. and both are on the downside of their career.

many of the injuries suffered on their player last year were pretty serious. it's not your typical hamstring pull or bad bruise . Well's shoulder injury was espically worrisome. and Overbay / Zuan's wrist operation could drain their power for a period of time. Johnson's back operation was clearly the most serious and we all know how that turned out. (he was flat out released)

the pitching side is hardly a much better picture, AJ Burnett is a obvious known suspect, and Dustin McGowan, the young pitcher they're counting on to be their #3 this year, had TJ in 05 and saw a huge inning jump from last year, their closer is still on the shelf and they already lost Casey Janssen for the year.

of their main players. only Rios / Hill hasn't a. been seriously injured sometime in the last 2 to 3 year. or b. really old. which brings us to the next point.

2. age: remember how the Yankees lineup is due for major regression (supposedly ) because of age? guess how many players on the Blue Jays lineup would be older than the entire Yankee roster? none? nope, 2. Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs are both older than the oldest Yankee player (Jason Giambi and Mariano Rivera, Gregg Zuan is just 3 month younger than Jason) . they have exactly 3 guys under 30 in their lineup on most nights, Wells (29) Rios (27) and Hill (26). that's hardly the fountain of youth there. Gregg Zuan is actually older than Jorge Posada. and guess what, their starting 9 is actually OLDER than the Yankee starting 9 on average.

3. stats just doesn't add up. last year they had brilliant pitching and mediocare hitting. the pitching is unlikely to get better. particularly in the bullpen. it's a simple logic that guys like Downs and to a lessor extend Accordo will repeat their 200 ERA+ seasons from last year, and they already lost Janssen, the SP side may be a bit trickier. as Burnett / McGowan have the potential to be awsome . but Marcum and Litch's soft tossing ways are unlikely to be very sustainable, particularly Litch, who had a non-existent K-rate last year. and he's GB rate is only good but not awsome good. the Hitting may or may not improve. though it's hard to see Rolen being much of a upgrade given his health. while Eckstien is a likely upgrade with the bat (only because McDonald's non-existent offensive game) but he'll cough some back on defense. Matt Stairs have no hope of comming anywhere near last year's # (where he basically out hit Manny Rameriez) . though with potential improvements to Rios / Hill and a bounce back on Wells / Overbay it could happen. but unless they immediately goes back to his 2006 form that offense upgrade would be minimal at best.

barring a huge disastor. it's hard to see the Yankee / Bo-Sox run-differential change significantly from last year. where they were 97 / 101 pythag win teams respectively. to demostrate that that means. the Red Sox scored 210 more runs than they gave up last year, the Jays only a bit over 60, it doesn't take anyone with a brain to understand that the larger the difference the more likely your to do well . even with the Yankees playing horriblly in close games last year they were still only 3 games under their pythag. the Jays have a massive holes to close. and it's very unlikely that they do it.

They're off to a good start, and obviously anything CAN happen (well except maybe the Giants not finishing last and setting some records of low scoring this year) but the chances are just seriously against them. the people who are picking the Jays to finish 1st or 2nd in the East are most likely ignoring a little common math logic here. the only way it happens is if one of the Yanks / Red Sox collapses VERY badly (worse than the 07 Yanks, like the 06 Bo Sox when Becektt forgot how to pitch and Jason Varitek went down .) AND the Jays getting career years from someone (ala 06 Wells / Overbay) even then, the chances of them in the playoff is pretty slim. the current baseball division configuration has hurt them more than any team in the sports.