Checking on My Bets
by jscape2000 on Apr 29, 2008 12:00 AM EDT
in Analysis
1 comment
I made two bold predictions over the offseason (actually, I'm sure I made more than two, but I have two I'm going to actually bother to remember and check in on regularly). First, I predicted that Phil Franchise would win more games than Jon Lester. So far, I stand to lose that bet 0-1.
The bold prediction I'm really interested in was Mike Mussina.
In case you forgot, I predicted a good-to-great season to put the cap on what I think is a Hall of Fame career: 180IP, 150K, 1.25 WHIP.
Well, after tonight's action, Mussina is 3-3 (253 career wins) in 32.1IP, 12K and a 1.27 WHIP. Over 32 starts that puts Moose on pace for 172.1IP, 64K, and (obviously) 1.27 WHIP.
Can Moose maintain this pace?
His groundball:fly ball ratio is at its highest (1.41) since his last year as an Oriole. If he can keep it there, it's a good sign- if he regresses without adding some Ks, there will be trouble. Opponents are also slugging .480 against him, frighteningly high and the highest since data became available in 1999.
Even more troubling, his Line Drive percentage is half a percent higher than last season, when opponents recorded a .340 BABIP. This season, with a 22.6 LD%, their BABIP is only .247- which would be a career low for Mussina. I think Moose was unlucky last year, and while his good fortune won't last all season, a BABIP around .300 isn't unreasonable.
Of course, I remain optimistic that Moose is clever enough to continue his early success.
The bold prediction I'm really interested in was Mike Mussina.
In case you forgot, I predicted a good-to-great season to put the cap on what I think is a Hall of Fame career: 180IP, 150K, 1.25 WHIP.
Well, after tonight's action, Mussina is 3-3 (253 career wins) in 32.1IP, 12K and a 1.27 WHIP. Over 32 starts that puts Moose on pace for 172.1IP, 64K, and (obviously) 1.27 WHIP.
Can Moose maintain this pace?
His groundball:fly ball ratio is at its highest (1.41) since his last year as an Oriole. If he can keep it there, it's a good sign- if he regresses without adding some Ks, there will be trouble. Opponents are also slugging .480 against him, frighteningly high and the highest since data became available in 1999.
Even more troubling, his Line Drive percentage is half a percent higher than last season, when opponents recorded a .340 BABIP. This season, with a 22.6 LD%, their BABIP is only .247- which would be a career low for Mussina. I think Moose was unlucky last year, and while his good fortune won't last all season, a BABIP around .300 isn't unreasonable.
Of course, I remain optimistic that Moose is clever enough to continue his early success.
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If I remember correctly when I looked
at your bold prediction I said that was possible for moose, except for the strikeouts.
Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.
by Edwantsacracker on Apr 29, 2008 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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