If Good Pitching Beats Good Hitting...

by jscape2000 on Apr 23, 2008 1:44 AM EDT in Analysis

does bad hitting beat bad pitching?

I've used the new Gameday pitch break and pitch f/x to look at what some of our pitchers have done this season; tonight I want to use it to look at what our hitters have done.

In the top of the second Jason Giambi took a pitch the other way (woot!) and out of the yard against Jose Contreras. It was the fourth pitch Jason saw from Jose (in the game and in the AB), and the third fastball. After a first pitch ball (89 mph fastball, 5" break) low and away, Giambi fouled off an inside fastball (91 mph, 4" break). Contreras hung a changeup at eye-level (80 mph, 8" break), then came back with an outside fastball (91 mph, 5" break).
The speed and the break weren't the problem. In the clip I saw at MLB the pitch might have caught a little too much of the plate, but it wasn't down the center, and every Yankee fan knows that the scouting report on Giambi is that he pulls everything. Location -wise, that pitch was a tenth of an inch from being a groundball to the second baseman. The only complaint I could come up with is the approach- Contreras throws a fastball, a slider, a curve, a change, and a split; you can't show Jason Giambi 3 fastballs in 4 pitches. But, that feels like a stretch to me.
Verdict:
Good hitting beats good pitching.

In the 7th inning, Octavio Dotel was brought into the game with the bases loaded; he struck out Captain Clutch on 5 pitches (all fastballs [cutters?], two of three strikes swinging]). Up stepped Bobby Abreu. Dotel stuck with his fastball (he also throws a quality slider and a show-me change). 92 mph, 5" break in the right hand batters box. 90 mph, 3" break in the right hand batters box (but closer to the plate). 92 mph, 4" break, down the heart of the plate. Even on the mlb.com replay, that pitch screams "Hit me or I'll call you Cairomack."
Verdict:
Bad hitting beat bad pitching.

After Dotel served up the long ball to Abreu and then walked Matsui, Ozzie Guillen brought in Matt Thornton. Thornton got the third out in the 7th (5 pitches), then walked Robbie Cano to start the 8th (8 pitches), struck out Jason Giambi (5 pitches), gave up a single to Ensberg (6 pitches, and 17th straight fastball!), and got Melky Cabrera to ground out.
Johnny Damon saw 3 fastballs: 95 mph, 4" break, high; 95 mph, 3" break, way outside; and, 95 mph, 4" break, a touch on the inside part of 'right down Broadway,' which happens to be just where Johnny Damon likes his fastballs (just ask tomorrow's starter Javy Vasquez). To make matters worse, it was Thornton's 31 pitch of the night (for comparison, imagine Farnsworth throwing 30 pitches- there'd be no Yankee fans left because we'd all have died of stroke and coronary failure), and his 28th fastball. Somewhere along the line, Johnny had a really good look and knew to do with what was coming.
Verdict:
Bad hitting beat bad pitch.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Yanks hitting was doing exactly what it's supposed to do: punish mistakes. But, just as I'm not ready to declare Moose or Giambi's careers over in April, I'm not ready to declare any slumps busted after tonight.

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I have some things I am prepared to say

First, I like the way Joe Girardi handles his in game decisions.

OK, Pitching to Manny with an open base is a mistake that probably cost a game.

On the other hand the work has been spread over the lineup well. Usage in the bullpen has been spread so that no one looks like they’ll be burned out at the all star break. Fairly decent results have been squeezed out of many players by putting them into situations where they could succeed. Like Farnsey last night. So, it wasn’t clean. Mo did start to warm. But he got the outs. Bruney didn’t get it done, but Joe got him out of there before he could give up that game blowing grand slam, not right after.

It is true that Joe’s bench does not include Miguel Cairo, Phillips, Phelps or Wil Nieves and I’m sure that makes it easier.

Arod, Jeter and Posada have been held out of the lineup for their good and the season long good of the team. Smart, Good.

You are right that the offensive drought might be over, but we cannot tell that. We need to see a couple more good games. The runs scored makes things a lot easier on the pitchers. This is especially true of smart young pitchers and we seem to have quite a few of them. With a few run lead they can relax and just pitch. For this to be a good year we need decent years from Hughes and IPK as starters.

I am still quite optimistic.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Apr 23, 2008 10:58 AM EDT 0 recs

My thoughts ... or ramblings

I’m on pain meds to limit the pain in my knee … but here goes.
I too like Girardi, and I’m not terribly concerned about the bats (especially if Giambi starts shooting the ball to the left field gaps). Cano will heat up at the temps rise, and Girardi is making smart moves spelling Jeter, Arod, Matsui and especially Posada. These guys have all been there before and everyone knows their role. I fully expect this team to mash 950+ runs this season. In fact, bank on it.

Starting pitching outside of Mussina isn’t really concerning me. Pettitte and Wang have done their part-as expected. As for Hughes and IPK, it’s growing pains. We need to be patient and willing to watch these guys succeed and fail in the same breath. That’s the way baseball is. The one issue I would take with them-and Mussina is the fact they aren’t going deep and as a result are seriously stressing the pen. The other night Greg Maddux (who’s 42) gave his team 7 innings. Throughout, he was beaten like a rented mule, or the bastard step child. But he stayed in and ate up innings. The pen needed a rest and he provided it. I don’t see that coming from Mussina or the two young kids. That needs to change, quickly.

I like our pen, but if they are going to be called on to bail out Moose, IPK and Hughes three out of five days, they will be hopelessly ineffective come July and August.

Growing pains? For sure. But we need at least one wiley veteran to give his team some innings.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 23, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up 0 recs