(Too Early to Be) Thinking About Jason Giambi

by jscape2000 on Apr 21, 2008 12:37 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 15 comments

#25 seems like the hot topic of the off-day, and I feel somewhat compelled to weigh in.

SG over at Replacement Level puts out a strong case for why Giambi isn't finished based on his BABIP and K:BB ratio (short version, Giambi hasn't been as overmatched as his bad luck on balls in play makes him look).

The always bright and positive Steve Lombardi of WasWatching voices his displeasure with Giambi, um, diplomatically (the title of his article is "Giambi's Batting Skills Are Worthless And The Yankees Should Cut Him"). Steve builds his case by looking at Giambi's batting line broken up according to the type of pitcher he faced (power, finesse, or average). Steve points to Giambi's "overmatched" numbers against power pitchers, but neglects to provide a context for those numbers.

For example, Giambi's 2007 against power pitchers saw him post a .539 OPS, compared to a aggregate .790.
Big drop off, right?
Yes, but not so huge when compared to the drop offs for Arod (1.067 vs 966), Melky (.718 vs .573), Abreu (.814 vs 649) or Cano (.841 vs .673). Other guys (like Jeter and Damon) hit the power pitchers better than finesse guys; it's just a matter of preference and pitch selection. But I understand how lesser performance against "big game pitchers" like Beckett or Halladay could linger in a fan's memory as poor performance in the big spot.

My own argument against overreacting to the Giambi 'situation' is a simple one: in 227 plate appearances last season, Bobby Abreu was hitting .230/.310/.290. Jason Giambi in 2008 has 59 plate appearances- barely a quarter of Abreu's tepid start. Abreu finished the year .283/.369/.445.

It's a long season, and it's far too early to cut someone off for dead.

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Giambi has a history of coming back from the dead. In 2005 he looked so bad that the Yanks tried to send him to the minors. He refused and started crushing the ball that summer.

"Well, that kind of puts a damper on even a Yankees win."
-- Phil Rizzuto after hearing about the Pope's death

by matthaggs on Apr 21, 2008 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cut Him

Giambi is 37 years old. He’s three years older than Abreu (with whom he was compared in the above post) and 3 years older than he was when he was scuffling in early 2005. His body is ravaged from steroid use/abuse. He can’t run and can barely field his position. The Yankees should not continue to give away at bats to a broken down player who is valuable only when getting on base a lot and hitting for power. They should just eat the rest of his $23 M this year and chalk it up to lessons learned from one of the worst contracts in league history. Take your cues from what Toronto did with Frank Thomas this week. Cut Giambi, bring up Gardner and platoon him with Damon, and DH Matsui. Such a lineup will have less power potential but more speed and defense. But, the aggravation of watching Giambi hit one soft liner after another into the shift and jog to first base will finally end. Let him take the money and go hang with his buddy Jose Canseco.

by Four Train on Apr 21, 2008 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can we all agree...

that he should be nowhere near the infield though? Even if he thinks it makes him a better hitter. I’m tired of watching him butcher play after play.

by bfriley76 on Apr 21, 2008 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

his throwing is definitely an issue...

but he picks those low throws better than anyone on the roster at this point…

You don't realize how easy this game is until you get up in that broadcasting booth. -Mickey Mantle

by NumberSeven on Apr 21, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the option?

Is Shelley an upgrade? Jason Lane? Ensberg? What about Frank Thomas? I’m not convinced there’s a better alternative at this point. We knew signing him that a seven-year contract was pushing it and we’d likely not get a great return at that point. Our best chance to cut him was during the steroid breakout. That’s when I say we should have cut ties. We didn’t, and I fear we are stuck with him hoping that he hits .240 with 30 homers.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 21, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now's The Time

Eh, there was no reasonable chance that the Yankees ever could have voided J. Bomb’s contract, else they would have done it. The Yankees cannot afford to keep him on the roster all year while he hits .215 with 17 homers; he looked better last year, and, even then, his numbers weren’t exactly good.

I say, cut him, bring up Gardner to platoon with Damon, and bring up Duncan once the catchers are healthy and Moeller is optioned. First base can be manned by Ensberg, Duncan and, maybe, Posada at times. None of them are great options, but none could be worse than J. Bomb. I’m more disgusted every time I see him.

by Four Train on Apr 21, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seems kind of drastic ...

I’m all for youth, but what you are proposing seems abit drastic with no guarantee of result.
I’m not a Giambi guy—even less so when I found out he was juicing, but I can’t write him off just yet.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 21, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

I don’t think there’s any chance the Yanks will cut Jason Giambi. I do think people see Frank Thomas getting released over the weekend and want the same thing to happen to Giambi.

But there are some differences between the two cases:

Thomas was owed $9M as opposed to $26M ($21M for ‘08 plus $5M buyout) for Giambi

Thomas made a huge stink for being benched and Riccardi may have foreseen a lingering problem while Giambi knows his role on the team

Giambi will start hitting if Girardi keeps putting him in the lineup

Plus, I do think it’s just a matter of time before Giambi gets hurt, so you might as well play him until he does. I don’t think the Yanks are going to release him because they have to pay him anyways. They are going to want to squeeze every last dollar out of him as possible.

by anaconda on Apr 21, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ensberg looked OK..

for the game or so he played there. If ARod didn’t have the quad thing going on, I wouldn’t mind giving him a couple more games to see how he’d do.

by bfriley76 on Apr 21, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Jscape made the case

and that Four Train is making the case that made Jscape write. After all we’re .500 and 3 games out. 3 of our 5 starters have really struggled.

Well, given the pitching, .500 and 3 games out looks fine to me.

I do like Morgan Ensberg’s D, but middle of the lineup guys are hard to find.

On the other hand roster spots are precious and the Yanks are very crowded on the active and 40 man. I think this only heading one of two ways. If he plays Giambi will hit. If he gets hurt we’ll make a move that makes sense.

I know we wish we weren’t so committed to Jason. We are committed though. So, try to relax and enjoy the nicer weather. It will probably work out OK.

If it doesn’t work out OK then we’ll get them next year.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Apr 21, 2008 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What?

“If it doesn’t work out OK then we’ll get them next year”, sounds a little Brooklyn Dodoger to me pal.

Just saying.

"You play the game to win the game, and not to worry about what's on the back of the baseball card at the end of the year." - Paul O'Neill

by yankee come lately on Apr 21, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh . . .

I’d sure like to know why several people here are so conviinced that Giambi “is going to hit” this year. He hit .236 in 250 plate appearances last year, his age 36 year. He is off to a horrible start at an age when most players are out of baseball or on their way out. What is the basis for believing that he’s capable of rekindling his 2005 season, let alone 2002 or 2003? It seems to be an unfounded argument based on wishes, conjecture and crystal balls.

by Four Train on Apr 21, 2008 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

like you do. I would feel better about him coming around at the plate if he could go the other way with the ball. I don’t think it is fair to compare him with Bobby Abreu either. That said, I am resigned to the fact that he is going to be on this team until he gets hurt at which point I have no problem platooning Ensberg and Duncan at first (Jscape’s idea of Posada at 1st, Molina behind the plate and Moeller on the bench isn’t bad eiter.) . My greatest fear now (Thanks Anaconda!) is that Giambi won’t get hurt, will continue to suck the entire year and we’ll look back and say coulda-woulda-shoulda. I’m in your corner but I hope we are wrong because the Yanks aren’t going to do jack about it for now.

by Rusty23 on Apr 21, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

you need to understand the very basic concept of OPS.

by RollingWave on Apr 21, 2008 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What RollingWave is trying to say

is that OPS is generally considered a better way of evaluating hitters than batting average.

When we give Giambi credit for his walks and his extra base hits, we can see that he was a slightly above average major league hitter (.789). Looking at his last healthy season (2006), he ranked among the elite hitters in the game (.971).

If his foot issue is healed, even allowing for the natural decline from aging, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to hit around .850- no longer elite, but well above average.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 22, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs