Phil Hughes...Does this look familiar?

by andyroth on Apr 20, 2008 3:12 AM EDT

I was combing through other baseball blogs and came across this assessment of Phil Hughes from a fan writing on Joel Sherman's blog. It seems there is somebody out there in Yankee world that knows the real reality when it comes to Hughes:

DelGrippo:
Actually, I've seen Neiman throw several times in person in the minors- have a buddy who plays in Rays system. His stuff looks better than Hughes, who I've also seen in person (albeit at the Stadium, vs minor league environment, where you are closer to the field). As for Greinke- he had clinical depression, which is generally recognized as having had a great deal to do with his poor perfromance. I also had the chance to see Lincecum pitch in SF last year at PacBell (or whatever they call it these days). Again, his pure stuff is well-beyond what i've seen from Hughes.

Regardless, you're missing my point. You're quoting me stats, talking about minor league experience, and in some cases even the College World Series (I remind you that Brooks Keishnick and Darren Dreifort were CWS superstars- how'd that work out in MLB?). If you look at my post, I'm talking pure stuff. Not performnace. Cueto looks like a young Pedro (and yes, since you like to ask, I've seen him pitch too- Baseball package on dish and laptop, for when I travel, will do that for you), whether he got lit up or not. Hughes sample size is such that I just havent even seen glimpses of being able to dominate, including the half-game no-no against TX.

Pure stuff. Hughes doesn't have the pure stuff to be a major talent. Joba has pure stuff, but the other 2/3 of the so-called Holy Trinity do not.

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I get it

So what you’re doing is downplaying every opinion (pro or amateur) that disagrees with your assessment of Hughes and now you’ve lowered the bar by posting comments by Sherman blog readers like “DelGrippo” as long as they back up your argument.

That’s not really a sound way to make a point because nobody on this board has any idea who “DelGrippo” is.

by anaconda on Apr 20, 2008 11:56 AM EDT 0 recs

I think its safe to say

we all know who DelGrippo really is…

by seanp23 on Apr 20, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

should be GettaGrippo

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Apr 20, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

DelGrippo

To Andyroth: Actually, I am DelGrippo (first name Joseph)and that statement you quoted above was NOT written by me, but by a guy named NYFan on the Hardball blog Joel Sherman writes for the NY Post. I go by the name of “thejobarules” on this board and on cnnsi.com.

NYFan wrote a small comment on how Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy do not have the “stuff” as other young pitchers HE HAS SEEN PITCH such as Cueto, Volquez, Greinke, Niemann, Lincecum etc. I was questioning whether he has actually seen these guys pitch or was just commenting based upon his watching ESPN Baseball Tonight highlights. Based on most of his posts over there, NYFan seemed like a worry wart over every little pitch, inning and at bat that does not go the Yankees’ way.

He was responding to me after I wrote this on April 14:

Hey NYFan. Easy on the great stuff from other pitchers. True, all those young pitchers you have mentioned are in the same “young pitching” boat – Good talents but can they do it consistently? Cueto was great in his first start but he got knocked around over the weekend. Gallardo hasn’t even pitched this year, and is out with a leg injury. Linecum is good, but had similar number to Hughes last year. Niemann just had his first major league start, did well, but after two lackluster years in the minors, finally began to put it all together in 2007. Did you watch his game yesterday or are you going but what you see in the box score? Niemann is also 25, four years older than Hughes.

The guy who is very similar to Hughes is Zack Greinke. Greinke was highly-touted out of high school (one scout said he was the best high school pitcher prospect EVER), flew through the Royals minor league system and made the majors at age 20. Does this sound familiar? But, Greinke was 5-17 his first full season as a starter at age 21. Does this mean Hughes is in for a 5-17 season? No, because NY media idiots (and the idiot NYY fans) will never allow it. The pressure will be pushed on Girardi and Cashman to make a switch with Hughes before it ever got that bad. But, that 5-17 season for Greinke was the best thing to happen for him. He worked back and now he had two great starts to open this season. (UPDATE: Greinke is now 3-1).

Sometimes it takes time. Very rarely you will have a pitcher who dominates right from the start. The only active pitchers to be immediately good are C.C. Sabathia, Jake Peavy and Justin Verlander. And now CC and Justin are getting knocked around, too. All other pitchers take their lumps. Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson and Tom Glavine are all future HOFers and had bad starts to their careers.

Yeah, somehow Brian Cashman, the Minnesota Twins (remember they wanted Hughes very badly), the Oakland A’s (them too) and all the other teams that would have taken Hughes in a trade for an established pitcher are all wrong about his talent.

I think it is just impatient people like you who want to win every game, every time and have every pitcher who ever started a game for their team to win every one of their starts. It has never happened before in baseball history and never will.

Hughes does not need any more seasoning in the minors – he has done all he needed to do down there. Kennedy on the other hand needs to have at least until the All-Star break for his determination, but he only had a handful of starts at the AAA level, and if he does not seem to improve, possibly could be sent back mid season.

Here is a name – Daniel McCutchen will be up with the Yanks some time this season either as a reliever or as a starter. He has dominated all his starts this season at AA Trenton (UPDATE: I have seen McCutchen pitch in person several times) and in a 2005 game in college, he went 9 innings (137 pitches!) and gave Joba his first ever loss in college.

By the way, later that year in the 2005 College World Series Joba for Nebraska and Alan Horne for Florida were the two winning pitchers during the first day.

Nice drafting Cashman!

So please get your facts (and quotes) straight Andyroth before I have Farnsworthless throw one behind your head!

by thejobarules on Apr 21, 2008 12:51 AM EDT 0 recs

That's hilarious

Not only does aroth quote from a reader of another blog, but he quotes the wrong guy. Sigh.

Maybe NYFan can join us as well so we can get to the bottom of this! Ha Ha

Welcome, DelGrippo.

by anaconda on Apr 21, 2008 1:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

andyroth is a moron

Thanks anaconda!

I am a total Yankee fan who is 100% supportive of the Brian Cashman youth movement.

I believe:

1) Phil Hughes should be allowed to pitch in the rotation the entire season.

2) Originally that joba is a 2008 starter, but might need to finish this season in the bullpen, and then have him start games in a winter league somewhere to get ready to be the ace in 2009.

3) pitch limits within games are ridiculous and that sometimes 80 pitches feel like 120 and 120 pitches can feel like 80.

4) that young pitchers can throw a lot of innings at an early age and not get injured – see Bert Blyleven’s workload early in his career.

5) Daniel McCutchen is a monster and will be really good in the Bronx.

6) In next years Yankee bullpen will by David Robertson, Mark Melancon and JB Cox.

7) the 2011 Yankee rotation will have Wang, Joba, Hughes, McCutchen and either Humberto Sanchez, Horne, Kennedy or Marquez. Or some combination of all the above.

8) Robinson Cano will come close to winning a Triple Crown someday, but will fall about 10 HR’s short.

9) that Jason Giambi should be cut by the Yankees immediately and the only reason he is still in the lineup is because he is owed $26 million.

10) that the Yankees (and Braves) will lose out to the Mets in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes this off season. This is because the Mets will be desperate after they lose in the 2008 NLDS to Arizona.

11) that Omar Minaya is the worst GM currently working in baseball

12) that managers who bring in the 8th inning guy (mommy, I want to be an 8th inning guy when I grow up!) or the closer when his starter is cruising along after 7 or 8 shutout innings because he is ” supposed to” bring in his closer are completely spineless. ie: see resumes of Willie Randolph and John McLaren (Mariners).

13) Teams should let their horses work: Whether you pitched in the 1950’s or 1990’s, started every four or five days, there are only so many pitches in your arm before it breaks down. No amount of babying will save it. Only 75 pitchers in the history of MLB have started 450 or more games in their careers and with 2 more starts this season Kenny Rogers will be the 76th. A total of 450 starts translate to 30 starts for 15 seasons, meaning that most ML pitchers do not throw in even 12 or more seasons, and of the 76 guys mentioned above only 13 played their entire careers in the “modern” 5 man rotations which began in the late 70’s. Work your horses in the fields until they drop – then get another horse. The real good horses will last for many years while the bad horses will head early to the glue factory.

There are many more thoughts about this great game flowing through my brain, but it is very late and I need sleep.

You guys will all get enough of me after a short while.

by thejobarules on Apr 21, 2008 2:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

I have to disagree about #13

While great pitchers are statistically rare, it’s wrong to think that rarity is an inherent quality rather than a learned/developed quality. With the progress made in the last 15 years understanding the kinetics of human motion, the only thing holding us back from developing each pitcher to his full potential is the pitching mystique and athletic machismo of the clubhouse.

Oh, and for 6/7, Sanchez will be the best of the that bullpen crew.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 21, 2008 2:33 AM EDT up 0 recs

I have to disagree about #13

I am glad you agree on the other 12 items!

I like Eric Hacker’s story, too. Having come back from not just Tommy John surgery in 2004, but also shoulder surgery in 2006 is quite impressive. Only 3 hits allowed in his last 20 innings at High A Tampa, but I believe he could be a minor league FA after this season.

by thejobarules on Apr 21, 2008 2:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

Pitch counts

There does seem to be evidence that suggests 100 pitches is generally a good marker. I agree that 100 no-stress pitches (men not on base, or game on line) is easier on the arm than 75 high-stress pitches.

I would like to add a #14 to your list (a list that I generally agree with). The mound should be elevated back to it’s pre-1969 level to combat arm injuries for pitchers. I have done some research on this and believe that a return to the high mound is paramount to protect the arms and careers of todays mega-million hurlers. At some point, someone has got to come to the realization that elevating the mound will drastically cutdown the rash of catastrophic arm injuries. Teams investing tens of millions on hurlers need not look to better training technologies, nutrition, but rather mound height.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 21, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pitch counts

How would raising the height of the mound eliminate arm injuries? What does your research tell you? I believe the mound today is 10 inches, but the mound pre-69 ws 15 inches. That is quite a drastic change over one season.

checkout this article found online:

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/101420.php

Although this article contradicts what you are saying, I do believe the mound should be raised slightly to 12 inches and the strike zone raised to the mid point betweeen “the letters” and the belt.

And pitching from flat ground does not help a pitcher who must throw from a mound during a game. If you are throwing from a mound in a game, then a pitcher needs to practice from a mound.

The 100 to 120 pitch counts were first brought to attention by Bill James, who also brought us the OBP studies, too. He determined that pitchers were less effective during games in which they passed 100 pitches, then the pitchers were even more ineffective after reaching 120 pitches.

Check out the Box Score of Game 6 in the 1977 World Series. Yankees starter Mike Torrez was still in the 9th inning, and threw 119 pitches in that game on three days rest after winning Game 3 with a 125 pitch CG. In that Game 6, the tying run was even in the on deck circle in the 9th! Think Torrez would have been in that type of game today? Notice also that Ron Guidry threw 120 pitches in his Game 4 CG win.

These guys can throw over 100 to 120 pitches in pressure packed situations and still get outs.

by thejobarules on Apr 21, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

The best pitchers

might be able to. But there’s a long term loss because of the wear and teat (see: Koufax, Sandy).

I think 100 pitches is about right for a normal pitcher. They’ve done studies from some video of the Dodgers in the 50s, and they found that the average pitcher only threw 90-100 pitches; but since the hitter’s focus was on making contact and hitting for average, rather than working the count and hitting for power, the pitcher was able to pitch a complete game in 100 pitches.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 21, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maybe the hitting philosophy should then be

working the count and then making contact, instead of working the count and then striking out.

Or maybe the pitchers should just throw strikes.

Legendary pitching coach Ray Miller’s three cardinal rules of pitching were:

1) throw strikes
2) work quickly
3) change speeds

They worked in 1908, 1958 and should work in 2008.

by thejobarules on Apr 21, 2008 1:18 PM EDT 0 recs

Seminar

I went to a seminar in 1999 that seems to refute everything this study says. They did the whole dog and pony show with graphics, video, etc. showing how raising the mound increased the angle making the pitcher throw downhill more which lessens the impact of the arm.

I’ve talked to a number of pitching coaches who advocate raising the mound in part because they too believe it lessens arm stress. This is news to me, and frankly, I’m shocked.

As a coach, I preach the Ray Miller philosophy with a generous sprinkling of Spanky McFarlan and Leo Mazzone. If raising the mound does in fact put arms at greater risk, then we need to figure out why arm injuries are skyrocketing as inning totals are dropping. I've always assumed it was the mound. Leo Mazzone says it's because pitchers don't throw enough. I'd really like to find an answer.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Apr 21, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up 0 recs