Thinking About Phil Hughes

by jscape2000 on Apr 19, 2008 2:22 AM EDT in New York Yankees Analysis

	Fastball	Curve	Change	Slider
1st	11 (6) 92-93, 3"-4"	1 (0) 75, 15"	1 (0) 84, 6"	---
2nd	19 (14) 92-93, 3"	6 (2) 71-74, 16"	1 (0) 81, 8"	1 (1) 79, 10"
3rd	6 (5) 92-93, 3"-4"	6 (3) 71-75, 15"-16"	---	1 (1) 80, 11"
4th	10 (6) 91-93, 3"-4"	2 (2) 71-72, 16"	---	2 (1) 78, 9" 11"
5th	11 (6) 90-92, 3"-4"	2 (1) 73, 15" 16"	---	---
6th	14 (10) 91-93, 3"-4"	1 (0) 71, 16"	1 (1) 79, 8"	1 (1) 78, 11"

Key: # pitches thrown (strikes+foul+in play) mph, break.

Special notes: Generally, I've followed the Gameday pitch identification (which sports a freshly refined algorithm so that Gameday will only classify pitches as types the pitcher actually throws, so no more cutters for CMW [ps. I read that over at Hardball Times, but I can't find the article]). However, in the second inning Hughes threw a pitch at 79 mph with a 10" break. Gameday called it a curve, I'm guessing it was a misidentified slider. I saw a similar pitches in the 3rd, 4th, and 6th.
Interestingly, Gameday correctly identified a slider in the 4th.

Hughes only walked two but only struck out one, and he gave up nine hits. I have two theories rolling around in my head, either could be right or wrong and they are not mutually exclusive.

First, I'd say Hughes relied on the fastball too much. He threw fastballs for 71 of 97 pitches (73%). He only really flashed the change and slider; the slider is supposed to be a plus pitch for Hughes. What I didn't hear was which pitches he felt he had working- was this the pattern he planned to follow from the start, or was this improvised when he got to the pen and figured out he didn't have all his pitches working tonight? I won't pretend to be smart enough to guess.

Second, I think the long waits between innings hurt Phil. Cabrera threw 21 pitches to 6 batters in the top of the 5th, 30 pitches to 6 batters plus a coaching visit in the 6th. Staying sharp is something we see everyone struggle with, it's just one more aspect of the game that our 21 year old ace-in-training has to master.

I'm also encouraged because Hughes threw first pitch strikes to every batter until the 3rd batter in the 4th inning (technically, Brian Roberts hit the first pitch to start the game, but after that it was all 0-1). We definitely saw less nibbling out of the Franchise, and with his stuff, that's only going to lead to good things down the road.

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Comments

who was the catcher?

That can make a difference.

by Frank Malzone on Apr 19, 2008 3:55 AM EDT reply actions

Moeller caught last night

Molina caught the game against the Red Sox, Posada caught the 2 games before that.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 19, 2008 4:58 AM EDT up reply actions

John you have

(strikes+fouls+in play)

Can you give us just in play? Cause if a few of those hits were off of his curve then I can I understand why he stopped throwing it.

When dad and I went to go see him in a start against Syracuse he dominated by throwing mostly his curve. He pitched more like the 3rd inning and to a lesser extend the 2nd.

Crowds are won and lost and won again, but our hearts beat for the diehards.

by Edwantsacracker on Apr 19, 2008 8:54 AM EDT reply actions

In Play

The O’s put 20 fastballs, 2 curves (4th, 5th), and 1 change (6th) into play.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 19, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

chicken and egg

In general, pitchers have to trust their stuff enought to take a chance that they will make a mistake in location, but the batter will only foul it off or hit it weakly (most of the time).

If they don’t, they fall behind in the count, then are at a disadvantage.

But if the stuff isn’t good enough, then trusting it is not enough. They will get hit.

I don’t know Hughes, but I see Dice-K going through it. In tight spots, he is too careful, then he gets behind. It seems to me that Dice-K is doing a little better psychologically this year, but has a ways to go. I think Veritek has helped him. But Dice-K has a long way to go before he can be trusted in a big game. He doesn’t have control of his nerves.

I don’t know if Hughes’s problem is that he doesn’t trust his stuff, or it isn’t good enough.

Ironically, in the game against the Red Sox, I was surprised at how good Hughes looked much of the time.

He will need good coaching, good catching, and time enough to learn by trial and errofr.

by Frank Malzone on Apr 19, 2008 11:08 AM EDT reply actions

The thing we don't know yet

is the psychology of these young guys. We know that if Moose struggles, his ego and brain causes him to melt down much of the time. We’ve seen his frustration at umps cause him to lose control. We know that Andy Pettitte is MORE effective when he has guys on base….like he hunkers down and gets the job done. CMW is such a poker face, who knows what his state of mind does to him? We know he was rattled all off season and felt bad and that caused him to work on more pitches and become more effective.

Can Hughes, Kennedy and Joba pull themselves out of jams? If they’re fighting control issues can they stay the course and keep trying to get back in it? I think Phil is a little more emotional than the other two. I have no idea where that comes from but just my observation of him so far. I think Ian might follow and Joba could be tough as nails.

I think they need to keep being positive. I think there’s a lot of weight on these young guys esp in how protective the organization and fans have been about keeping them. They might think they have to show up and pitch perfectly. They’re all so young and green.

I think that a lot depends on the catcher and our three young kids have been working with 3 different catchers. What impact does that have?

I think Eiland is phenomenol and can help but Girardi needs to step up as well. He was an incredible catcher and can help with the development of these kids.

I think they need time and an everyday catcher but they need to stay strong, mentally, in the meantime.

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Apr 19, 2008 3:51 PM EDT reply actions

Kennedy is a number 5 starter at best

on a good team and Hughes doesn’t have the fastball to be a major talent. One of these days you and the rest of the bunch here will “get it” or maybe you just won’t have the guts to admit you and this dumb franchise were wrong

by andyroth on Apr 20, 2008 1:28 AM EDT reply actions