Joba in the pen...

by LateInningRelief on Apr 15, 2008 12:30 PM EDT Comment 21 comments

is a matter of VORP.

To commemorate my first diary posting, last August, on the idea of keeping Joba in the bullpen, I'd like to present an argument for padlocking the bullpen door so he cannot escape, at least through the rest of the season. (Consider this, as well, an invitation for Haggs and Anaconda to finetune their arguments pro/con.)

Basically, my view on keeping Joba there comes down to two things:

1.) Are the Yankees competitive at the All-Star break, with a chance to advance in the playoffs. If they're clearly out of the playoff picture, by all means send Joba to Tampa to convert to a starter. If they're in the running, then I rest my decision on issue #2:

2.) How well IPK is pitching. This is the VORP argument. In my view, Joba's value as a starter has to be evaluated against the value of the starter he'd replace, most likely IPK. The bottom line is whether Joba's innings as a starter are of significantly more value than IPK's innings.

If IPK settles down and pitches like he did last night (and Moose and Hughes are reliable), the only issue is managing IPK and Hughes' innings. I'd rather cap IPK and Hughes' innings/game and give the young relievers (Ohlendorf, Bruney et al) add'l innings to try out to replace Joba in 2009.

My two cents.

Poll

Keep Chamberlain in the bullpen...

...if the Yankees want to win this year.

5 votes

...as a future replacement for Mo.

3 votes

...if the other starters are reliable at the break.

10 votes

...if the Yankees are fools--c'mon, convert him to a starter ASAP.

11 votes

29 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 21 comments

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Comments

Re:

At least the one thing we all agree on is that Joba’s long term future is best suited for the rotation.

We can continue to fight about whether it should happen this season or not, but that’s all semantics at this point and none of us have a vote on the final decision.

My real problem with idiots like George A. King III, M & MD, and the Yankee radio crew is that all of these people believe Joba should be in the pen permanently, this season and beyond.

I don’t quite understand that at all.

by anaconda on Apr 15, 2008 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I will point out

That Hughes is likely on a 150IP cap, similar to Joba.

My position has been and will remain (baring a severe Mussina meltdown) that Joba and Hughes should switch positions at mid season.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 15, 2008 11:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Question is:

How do you do that at mid-season? Joba goes to the minors for at least 4 weeks to re-tool as a starter. I guess you leave Phil in the rotation until he’s back. But haven’t you just lost one of your most valuable pieces in a playoff run? For at least a month, because really, Joba should probably be brought along a little more slowly as a starter. Optimally, I think you’d want to budget 8 weeks of rotation time in the minors. No?

By the way, what’s IPK’s cap?

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 16, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It makes more sense to me

to start the season as a starter and then switch to the bullpen, which is what Joba did in a relatively short amount of time last year (granted the starter portion was in the minors).

Switching to the rotation mid-season takes him away from the team for too long.

Another reason why they should wait until next spring.

I think IPK’s cap is around 190.

"Well, that kind of puts a damper on even a Yankees win."
-- Phil Rizzuto after hearing about the Pope's death

by matthaggs on Apr 16, 2008 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

going to the minors will be necessary. In 2003, Santana’s appearances leading up to conversion to the rotation: 2IP July 2, 3IP July 5, 6IP (GS) July 11th.

I think that can be done at the big league level. If you really want to play with kid gloves, you let Joba go 2 innings in the bigs. Send him down for a start, then bring him back up. He’s only got to stay down (I think) 10 days.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 16, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Question 2 is:

How effective was Santana during his ‘03 conversion? More effective than the guy he was replacing in the rotation? You may be right on the switch, but I don’t think we can make that call until we’re closer to the break.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 17, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Santana

Starter- 18G, 110.1IP, 83 H, 1.00WHIP, 2.85ERA, 109K
Reliever- 27G, 48IP, 44H, 1.33WHIP, 3.56ERA, 60K

He replaced Joe Mays’ 1.52WHIP and 6.30 ERA.

I agree it’s kind of a moot point until we get closer to that point. If we figure that the average makes 6 starts per month, the earliest I’d think about moving Joba would be July 1. That would expect around 100 innings from him, leaving 50 innings between now and July (about 5 innings per week).

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 17, 2008 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ohhh...

seeing that Santana was markedly better as a starter than a reliever has me salivating. Wouldn’t that be something? If Joba was actually MORE dominant as a starter.

Okay, let’s see where we are then at the break.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 17, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One other thing:

I honestly commend your and Anaconda’s resolute focus on the future. It’s something that is only recently back in vogue in Yankeeland. But it does raise question # 3:

Are you willing to write off our chances of winning in 2008 to give Joba the opportunity to try out the rotation? Because isn’t his success as an MLB starter still somewhat theoretical, even if it is backed by a lot of empirical evidence?

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 17, 2008 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let me turn that question around

Are you willing to write off our chances in 2008 by leaving the guy who empirical evidence suggests could be our best starter in the bullpen?

Allowing a lesser pitcher (Moose) to give up more earned runs in more innings doesn’t seem like the recipe for success to me. We have enough pitchers on the roster right now to mix and match successful outings against even the best offenses in MLB (as we saw last night).

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 17, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well,

now here I would quibble with you on the “empirical evidence.” Joba was really solid as a starter in the minors, but nothing compared to what he’s been as a reliever in the majors. Even with his great arsenal of pitches-clearly the make-up of a starter-it is not a foregone conclusion that he’s going to make an easy transfer from reliever to MLB starter. I really think that to be cautious, you have to budget an adjustment period, Santana’s success notwithstanding.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 17, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll answer the question

I don’t consider my proposal “writing off the 2008 season.” In fact, I’ll argue that it may give the Yanks the best chance to win in October because it utilizes the best arm in the organization in a role that has been the team’s biggest weakness since 2004.

I just don’t think the team can win in October without upgrading the rotation significantly. Joba gives the team the best chance to do that.

Also, until last night, the team had lost every game this season in which they didn’t eat at least 6 IP. Even when the team isn’t hitting, a strong rotation still gives them a chance to win. Middle relief is a weakness for just about every team in MLB.

Again, teams can out slug one another during the regular season, but it doesn’t work in October 90% of the time. The sooner the team can turn a weakness into a strength – the sooner this team will advance to the ALCS and World Series.

by anaconda on Apr 17, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Both you and Jscape

are budgeting about 30 minutes for Joba to switch from a reliever to a starter. He very well may be able to do that effortlessly, and Santana’s success doing so is hugely encouraging. But I think the assumption needs to be 4 weeks (at a minimum) for him to re-focus his game as a starter. If he’s quicker than that, great.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 17, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

And his first few starts here, successful or not, can’t be expected to last much longer than 5 innings, which is the dreaded number anaconda brought up, and which isn’t any longer than the current inhabitants of the rotation. He will be on a strict pitch count to say the least.

Then you factor in that there will be one super reliable arm missing from the bullpen, and for at least the short term you have significantly weakened your pitching staff.

"Well, that kind of puts a damper on even a Yankees win."
-- Phil Rizzuto after hearing about the Pope's death

by matthaggs on Apr 17, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

It’s not that I think he’ll make the transition effortlessly overnight – it’s that he’ll have 2-3 months of conditioning as a major league starter in 2008 as opposed to waiting until 2009 to make the switch.

Secondly, he’ll have an innings cap of 170 IP next season as a full time starter instead of 130-140 IP if he stayed in the pen all season.

I don’t expect the switch to be overnight by any means. But I don’t see the point in postponing the inevitable when it’s clear that starting pitching has been weakest link on this team since 2004.

by anaconda on Apr 17, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay,

but you’ve just argued for the notion that you’re willing to trade 2008 for 2009.

Just saying…

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 17, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correction:

I’m willing to trade 2008 for 2009 – 2014 and beyond. That’s the argument I’ve made since the beginning. I care more about the long term benefits of this move than the short term.

I’m not naive enough to suggest that the young kids are going to dominate in the pen like Joba can. But I am suggesting that the young arms in the system could do a solid job for this club.

by anaconda on Apr 17, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I commend you

for the position. It’s not usually something you see in Yankeeland. These things always have a strange way of shaking out as it gets closer to decision-making time, though, so I’m curious how it all winds up.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 17, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yankee fans are spoiled

It’s like they do not know how to enjoy baseball anymore. They’ve turned into the frigging Red Sox fans of old. Whining and wringing their hands and going “Oh here we go again” when it’s only April and going “I hate the Red Sox” when they are winning the way they used to say “I hate the Yankees.”

If we would just support our team as it does what we have been screaming at them to do over these past 10 years (grow them down on the farm), we could fare better.

It’s NOT about this year’s championship. It’s about the future of this club. And that comes with Joba in the rotation and not in the pen.

And chill out about 2008 2009 or whatever. Enjoy the extraordinary shot this club has at it every single year. And the ownership that puts money into the team and makes it competitive (maybe not championship caliber but competitive) every single year.

Enjoy baseball and rooting for the most successful franchise in history. The tradition that is the pinstripes. The pride and power that is the MFY.

Soapbox off.

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Apr 18, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not a matter of being

spoiled or not. It’s a matter of doing the right thing for the team, both short and long term. A couple more games like those just thrown by Moose and Hughes, and this all becomes a moot point, cuz the pitching staff will soon get the kitchen sink treatment.

But, assuming we have reliable starting pitching at the break, the larger issue is this:

For argument’s sake, let’s say that stretching Joba out into a starter at the break gives him an innings cap next year of 170 IP, rather than 150 if he were to spend the season as a reliever. Let’s say as well that Joba’s ERA is a full 2 runs better than whoever else would eat up those 20 add’l innings. That means Joba, as a 2009 starter, holds the opposition to 4 runs plus change in those add’l innings. (And we’re giving him the benefit of, say a 2.0 ERA versus a 4.0 ERA from whoever else would eat those innings.)

In my view, this makes the let’s-prep-Joba-for-2009 argument a lot less compelling. So then I weigh a few other issues, largest of which is whether you’re running a risk trying to re-tool Joba’s game mid-season. For every Santana, there are ten guys who didn’t quite fulfill their promise. I am no pitching expert, and it’s beyond my paygrade to determine whether Joba will be as dominant a starter as he is a reliever. But we’ve got two huge bets in the rotation right now. And I’m not sure rushing a third into the mix is a good move. Barring, of course, the need for the kitchen sink strategy.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 19, 2008 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your numbers

Opperating under the +30 school of thought, Joba can pitch around 120-130 innings this season. To leave him in the bullpen is to hold him around 90 innings (assuming a lot of 2 inning appearances), with the same 120 cap again next season.

Leaving him in the pen all year means waiting a full year for him to condition himself as a starter.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 19, 2008 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs