An interesting season preview

by jscape2000 on Apr 1, 2008 11:35 AM EDT

The Hardball Times has their season predictions up. They ran 100 sims and produced some interesting results in the AL East.

The Yankees won the division 46 times (and tied with the Blue Jays once) while the Red Sox won the division 47 times. Basically, that's a push.

Where things get really interesting is the Wild Card projections:
The Yankees win it 24.5% of the time, the Blue Jays win 24.5%, while the Red Sox win 18.5%.

Basically, THT prefers the depth in the Yanks rotation and lineup to the Red Sox- a major injury handicaps Boston's playoff chances more than a similar injury limits the Yanks.

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Speaking of simulations,

did anybody see the article in the Week in Review section of the Sunday Times on the simulations a group of physics profs ran on DiMaggio's hitting strike?

Not sure why this was on the Op Ed page of the Times, rather than the sports page, but it's an interesting article that basically says DiMaggio's seemingly impossible 56 game hitting streak wasn't actually so improbable.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 1, 2008 3:32 PM EDT reply actions

Not sure why

the URL tool is not working. Am I doing something wrong?

Here it is using the tool:

And here it is just pasted into the body:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/opinion/30strogatz.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=dimaggio&st=nyt&oref=slogin

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Apr 1, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting stuff

After Joe D's streak ended he went on another 17 or 18 game tear.

As much of a stat head as I am, I have to question their methodology. The chances of getting a hit in any AB are not equal. Certain pitchers allow less contact, and certain pitchers allow a lower than average batting average on balls put into play. The best pitchers do both. I imagine that the reason our real world has seen so few long hit streaks is that sooner or later every team runs into a buzz saw.

I'd love to see the simulations if they allowed variables on both sides of the ball. I bet it would look closer to our reality.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Apr 2, 2008 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions