Thinking About Playoff Caliber Rotations

by jscape2000 on Mar 27, 2008 3:22 AM EDT in News Comment 15 comments

The NY papers have been unkind to the Yanks in their preseason predictions.

Tyler Kepner thinks the Yanks will miss the playoffs. The illustrious George A. King III echoes that sentiment. Joel Sherman sees the Yanks second to the Sox. Bill Madden actually picked the Blue Jays to win the division, and the Yanks to fall to third.

The consensus all around is that the Yanks young pitching just won't hold up. Without a Santana, or at least a Joe Blanton, the Yankees have too many "neophytes" to contend.

So what kind of players have built playoff rotations in the last five years? I took the AL playoff teams 2003-2007 and organized their top starters by IP into four tiers, 20 pitchers in each tier. Here's the breakdown:

A quick note: I calculated each stat line individually. So what we're see there is the best K/9 grouped with the best BB/9 even if that wasn't the average real world pairing. I did this because I wasn't willing to pick one stat to use as the sorting key. So, rather than define what it is to be an ace, I'm trying to give us some common reference points that we can value differently.

Now, the analysis:
First off, these numbers don't take offense or defense into account in any way. A 950 run offense like the Yanks could easily make the playoffs without a '1' contribution, if the rotation balances between 2 and 3.

The thing that really strikes me is that IP is the only mark that I'd consider really out of reach for the Trinity. The 1 and 2 marks are all within the range of their minor league stats, and of the various projection systems only CHONE predicts even vaguely 'bad years' for the Trinity.

That said, the chart really underscores the Yankees' weakness in 2008. And, no Mr. King (the Third), it's not that the rotation is inexperienced. The great risk is that the Trinity simply aren't available to pitch more innings than the average 4th starter on a contender. This means opening up more innings to other pitchers. I have total faith in the Trinity, the season will turn on the performance of the pitchers used to start the other 25 or so games.

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I love how

everyone assumes that the youngesters on the Yankees will struggle while the once on the Bo-Sox won't. Yankee vets are fragil but Bo-Sox onces aren't. cause that's basically the only way you can come to the conclusion of Yanks finishing behind the Bo-Sox.

by RollingWave on Mar 27, 2008 3:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

annoying

yes i find that very annoying, all this talk about kennedy and hughes and how they will have an inconsistent year, while bucholtz and lester are constantly praised

by Robinson24 on Mar 27, 2008 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And another NY paper prediction:

"Prediction

The Yankees - yes, the Yankees - might be the fourth-best team in the American League behind the Red Sox, Tigers and Indians. But they also could win the pennant if the young starters handle the pressure they'll be under. Maybe next year. 87-75, second place AL East, no playoff berth."

http://www.lohud.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080327/SPORTS01/803270330/1035/SPORTS0101

by detroit yankee on Mar 27, 2008 8:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's funny

The only thing out there picking the Yankees (besides us) is PECOTA (they think the Yanks will win the East by 6 games).

Go hug your computer. It was right about the 2007 ChiSox, hopefully it'll be right again.

http://nyystadiuminsider.com/2008/03/pecota-2008-projected-mlb-standings.html

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Mar 27, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do not see how this team is not better than last

I will state some rather obvious facts.

Last year the Yankees broke camp with Wil Nieves and Pfisty's favorite as key subs. This years team also looks to me like an upgrade at backup 1st baseman.

Our starting pitching looks better. At this point last year injuries were so bad we had to turn to Carl Pavano as opening day starter.

Our Bullpen looks better. I do not advocate leaving Joba in the pen, but, while he is in the pen it is MUCH better than last year.

The new manager has brought an encouraging new attitude in that many players can to camp in better shape.

On the downside we are a year older. I wonder how average age matches with last year's opening roster and with the other top teams. I do suspect Detroit got better, as well as the Blue Jays. I do not think the Red Sox or the Indians did.

The Red Sox enter the season with two of last years key pitchers on the DL.

My picks

AL East:
Yanks
Jays
Sox
Rays
O's

AL Central winner: Tigers
AL west winner: Angels
Wildcard: from the Central, probably Indians.

NL world series participant: Mets(I can't believe I wrote that)

Let's get a good start for a change.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Mar 27, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

Yesterday when I openly questioned the viability of the Yankees to be competitive with a pitching staff composed of Number 1 starter (wang) who scares no one; a now injured Pettitte; a washed up Mike Mussina; and two kids who may or (Probably are not) may not be the real thing I was berated as a doomsayer...Now that the season is upon us and the "pros" are weighing in with the same opinion(s) I'll await all the justifications as to why professionals who cover the sport for a living don't know what they're talking about...
Despite the berating I remain a true-blue Yankee fan BUT also a very realistic one. Let's face facts here folks: Other than Wang PLEASE someone show me one viable major league pitcher this franchise has produced this decade. For all of us to think (Pray?!?!?) that suddenly we've stumbled upon the lottery in the form of Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba all in one feel swoop is akin to believing in the tooth fairy. Please don't view this as a slam against the organization for not following through on the Santana trade: This franchise needs desperately to get younger and LESS EXPENSIVE and the Santana deal certainly wasn't the way to do that. I simply feel as though it's best to write off 2008 as a transition year where young pitchers take their (repeated) lumps; we finally rid ourselves of Jason Giambi & Mussina; and get that much closer to ridding the franchise of over-the-hill guys like Damon and Matsui...
Truth be told: I'd rather lose with healthy, cheap youngsters who have upside than continue the misery of cobbling together starting staffs composed of the likes of the Aaron Smalls of this world...That, my friends, is truly the road to nowhere...

by Bixby on Mar 27, 2008 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Again, you can't be reached on this topic so I'm not going to keep going back forth with you.

However, some of the better baseball writers/reporters in the country like Tom Verducci and Buster Olney have picked the Yanks to win the East while Tim Kurkjian picked them to win the WC. They've all said the young Yankee pitchers are better than most people think.

I hold their opinions in a much higher regard than the likes of George King and Joel Sherman. I like Kepner but I think he's wrong on this issue.

We'll see. I hope you return later this year to take your ribbing like a man when this team exceeds expectations.

by anaconda on Mar 27, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tom Verducci?!?!

Funny you should mention Tom Verducci - I consider him one of the all-time great Yankee haters...So now I know we're in a world of hurt!

PLEASE -- I pray that YOU are right and that I will have to come back here and take my lumps...There's nothing I'd like bettter to stand before you on bended knee saying: Please Sir: May I have another...?

by Bixby on Mar 27, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the difference

The reason the Yankees produced nothing in terms of pitchers outside of Wang in the last several years is that up until 2005 the people in charge of the draft didn't really know what they were doing. The focused on the toolsy high schoolers who could be signed for less, rather than targeting the top talent.

In 2005, Cash staged his little coup and installed Damon Oppenheimer. Since then the Yanks have been phenomenally aggressive drafting players that other teams viewed as unsignable, mixing the focus between guys with high ceilings (like Betances) and guys who should move through the system very quickly (like Melancon and IPK).

The draft budget from the last few years:
2007: $7.4 million
2006: $6.3 million
2005: $3.7 million
2004: $4.8 million
2003: $3.8 million Source

Double the budget, produce better players, reap the benefits. Sing it with me: Times, they are a-changing.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Mar 27, 2008 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sneaky....very sneaky...

That is some nice convoluted logic there my friend...To the uninformed it reads well but to this fan's eyes it's yet another variation of the tried and true Yankee methodology: "..if it moves - throw money at it!"
This is chump change and until such time as the Yankee system starts churning out a regular cavalcade of (pitching!) stars who have something more than wishes and hope to show for their existence on a major league roster I'll keep on reading posts like this with hope that the post is right on the money but also keep a firm eye on reality. Let's be real: The Yankee system has produced two viable major leaguers with star potential this decade: Cano and Wang. And while I'll certainly throw in Melky just ask yourself this: What would this guy fetch in the way of real talent if we decided to trade him...? Uhh, not all that much...I mean come on: Melky basically amounted to a "throw-in" to the proposed Santana trade...
I also recall that the Yankees were patting themselves on the back for their forward-thinking vision in scouting Pacific rim talent and going beyond the ol' Dominican Republic and out scouting philosophy of so many other organizations...Great: For every Wang and Matsui our Pacific Rim efforts have also given this organization Hideki Irabu and Kei Igawa!
Until I start seeing a steady flow of REAL results in the form of this team getting younger, cheaper, and BETTER I'll assign philosophies like this to their rightful place alongside the old Soviet Union's "annual 5 Year Plans"!

by Bixby on Mar 28, 2008 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry!

Did I say "star potential"??? I misspoke: Should have said: Above journeyman grade in the case of Wang and Melky - Cano most certainly does have Star potential...Don't mean to harsh on Wang BUT no way is this guy a Number 1 starter...He's a solid Number 3 if compared to the old days and moves up to solid Number 2 IF his arm holds out and I see longevity in his career. I've always been leery of that shoulder...

by Bixby on Mar 28, 2008 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

if you really wanted to be contrary, you'd point out that Cano and Wang (and Matsui and Melky, for that matter) are international free agents who didn't have to be drafted- they just had to be signed for the most money we could throw at them.

The logic is not convoluted however- instead of spending the bulk of the budget on MLB free agents, the Yankees can spend "chump change" on the draft and international free agents and this will produce the Trinity instead of Jared Wright, Carl Pavano, and Javy Vasquez.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Mar 28, 2008 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why so hard on Wang [insert joke here]???

Wang is probably the most under appreciated member of this team and I don't get why so many Yankee fans knock him.

Is a dominant #1 starter ala Santana, Beckett, or Halladay?

No. But he's a horse in the rotation who eats 200 IP per year and has compiled a career ERA of 3.74.

There aren't many pitches in either league who have those kinds of numbers since 2005.

I know the guy got hammered last October. So what? It happens. Don't diminish this guy's value to the team because he will remain a major cog in that rotation while the young kids develop.

Give me four or five pitchers on par with Wang and my team will win a World Series before a team with a bonafide "ace" and four average pitchers following him.

by anaconda on Mar 28, 2008 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In the history of baseball

not one single team has ever advanced to the World Series with two starters in the rotation making 25 or more starts for the first time in their careers so you might want to rethink complete confidence in Kennedy and Hughes for this season. By the way David Cone see Kennedy as a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher which is how I view him too although I'd like to see a little more of him to feel totally secure about this evaluation. I like Kennedy's curve and changeup but his fastball which is generally high 80's has very little movement to it. I know he is supposed to have good control but his mistake pitches could cause some problems. If you're more of a control pitcher like a Maddux you also need great movement on your ball like Maddux if you're going to be a high level pitcher and I don't see that with Kennedy so far in the short sample.

by andyroth on Mar 29, 2008 7:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re:

David Cone has also stated that he believes Moose will have a bounce back season. Do you agree with him on that? Didn't think so.

Besides, isn't a "middle of the rotation" starter what we want from Kennedy? He doesn't have the talent of Joba or Hughes, so he'd probably be the #3 starter among that group.

The team doesn't need all of these kids to be dominant #1 starters. They just need some stability and depth. Guys who can eat 180 - 200 IP per season and do a serviceable job.

by anaconda on Mar 29, 2008 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs