Joba to Bullpen
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2008/03/19/breaking-news-joba-to-the-bullpen/
We all expected this to be the likely move, so it isn't much of a surprise. My only question is with Joba having worked all spring on his full bag of pitches, will this move affect him in the latter half of the season should he move to the rotation?
Any experts on the subject?
Confirmed committee: Mo, Farns, Joba, Hawk
That leaves 3 spots to fill.
Traber, imo, has earned a shot at the pen. Igawa has earned a shot at the drive-thru of dunkin donuts.
Albadelejo, Patterson, Ramirez, Veras, Ohlendorf, Bruney, Phillips, Karstens, Rasner...
Of those, I'd really like to see if Alba, Traber and either Edwar or Veras can solidify the pen.
Ohlendorf should go to AAA to continue working on his pitches imo. Having him make the team then sit frequently does him no good. He's a longer term project I think.
Bruney has not shown consistency of command this spring. Not sure that Britton has really impressed anyone and Ramirez and Veras are a toss-up I think.
Anyone had any read on Patterson (who has had a good spring training)? Or is he on the outside looking in?
Also brings the questions: Rasner, imo, has had a horrid spring and should go AAA'ing (or become trade bait). Karstens has been inconsistent -- but he can be valuable, especially early season as a long man.
Girardi has some difficult decisions to make.
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41 comments
Comments
I like Patterson a lot
by bxgrl1 on Mar 19, 2008 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I forgot to say I agree about Traber
by bxgrl1 on Mar 19, 2008 3:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Freudian slip
Sounds like Traber, Patterson and Karstens will get first crack at the 3 spots.
by matthaggs on Mar 19, 2008 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
by bxgrl1 on Mar 19, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Patterson was ...
I'd prefer Joba in the rotation, but I understand the move--so long as it's temporary. I think Joba is far too valuable in a starting role than slushing around in the pen.
As for Karstens and Rasner ... it might be different if Igawa wasn't around, but the Yanks have a big $$$ stake on him and want some type of ROI. That said, one or both isn't likely to stick around. Perhaps trade bait?
by Ronster22 on Mar 19, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can hear mike and the mad dog now
"Dog, the kid is a revelation out of the pen. He is the heir apparent to mariano..."
idiots.
by seanp23 on Mar 19, 2008 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
MMD
by stillmonster on Mar 19, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
I kind of think the Yanks are doing this in the wrong order. They are putting themselves in a sticky situation doing it this way.
If Joba started out in the rotation, he could be moved to the bullpen midway through the season, and the Yanks could say their hands were tied because of his innings limit. The Yanks would then have a dynamite pen for the playoffs (knock wood), and Joba would be ready to start full-time in 2009.
Doing it this way creates all kinds of second guessing. Nice problem to have, but what if the Yanks are cruising right about the time the decision to switch him to the rotation would have to be made? What if the five starters are doing pretty well, but the bullpen besides Joba and Mo was doing crappy? Would they really fix something that wasn't broken? And if they did move him then, can you imagine the general public's reaction?
Plus, if you believe the Yanks current plan, Joba would have to go to Tampa or somewhere during the middle of the season to train for WEEKS to prepare to start. Can you take one of your most dominant pitchers off the roster and not expect to suffer for it?
The Yanks may have potentially created a summer soap opera.
by matthaggs on Mar 19, 2008 10:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Either way
I would rather he had innings at SWB for the first two months as a starter (despite his value as a reliever). At least that way, as a mid-season or injury-forced callup, he's prepared as a starter.
Otherwise, we have to rely on a guy like Karstens as either a spot starter and/or long relief guy (and I'm just not sold on him long term). That burns a bullpen spot.
However, the team now has options as the season progresses -- there's no rule that says (assuming AP + MM stay healthy and have productive seasons) that he can't remain in the bullpen this year and start next year. Furthermore, July (All-Star break) when the team is home for 18 of 24 games -- that would be the time to send him to Tampa. 14-21 days and he's back up by Aug 1.
Reality also tells us that the issue for the team in the last few years (playoffs) has not been "bullpen" -- it has been starting pitching. I think it has been too easy for people to say Joba the reliever based on what they saw last season without ever seeing Joba the starter. Those in the know are consistent in agreement: Joba should be a starter. So, the guys battling for the bullpen now are the ones who we're going to have to live with at some point anyway. Might as well get it over with (and I think the bullpen is much stronger this season with the pitching cast we're carrying with far more options than in the recent years. Great? Not yet. Solid? I believe so).
So what I do like about him penning early and starting late season is he has innings available in August/September to build strength for October. And if he pitches in October, it's 6-7 innings. Not one.
And maybe we aren't gifting 5 runs to Cleveland in the first inning of ALDS games this time.
by detroit yankee on Mar 20, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
If you and "people in the know" want him to be a starter, then there is a rule regarding leaving him in the pen for the whole season. The innings issue would be a problem next year at this time, and he would get stuck in the pen again.
That's fine if he pitches 6-7 great innings in August/September. Unfortunately though, he won't be able to hand the ball to himself. With him removed from the pen the bridge to Mo is out and a bunch of games will slip slide away if no one steps up.
I know the games now mean the same as the games in September, but I'd rather test the bullpen now and not use Joba as a crutch for the first few months. Girardi will use him as a crutch and the other members of the pen will as well. None of them will be truly tested when he leaves.
I also don't want to see him off the team for 2-3 weeks during the summer. Up until yesterday he had been preparing to be a starter all spring. Why not let him ???
by matthaggs on Mar 20, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah yes but!
I think you're undervaluing several of the current relievers who have (for the most part) had a very good ST.
Is the assumption that all the other relievers on the team are crap and ONLY Joba can save this team in the 8th and hand a lead to MO in the 9th?
(leaving Farnsworth out of that argument, for the obvious reasons)
Joba's value (potential) in the post season isn't 1 inning. It's as a starter, imo. So I do agree that I would prefer to see him as a starter (which is why I would rather he were down on the farm) but the question is, when: April? Or September?.
Aside from disagreeing about it - we'll see how it plays out.
by detroit yankee on Mar 20, 2008 7:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Check out
I realize Joba has only thrown 24 innings in the bigs, but there is not a doubt in my mind that he would be a dominant set-up man.
There is no one else on the Yankee roster that you can say that about. So yes, as of today, Joba is the only completely trustworthy member of the bullpen besides Mo.
by matthaggs on Mar 21, 2008 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I watched him pitch yesterday and he was filthy. I haven't seen stuff like that come out of the Yankee bullpen in a lot of years. Dominant? Absolutely. I don't know that he's that electric as a starter so I'm completely torn. I would love to see him start and I would love to see him be groomed to replace Mariano at the same time.
We have 5 starters. We have one Mariano. Those are big cleats to fill and I think Joba has the stuff to do it. We've been saying what the hell do we do when Mariano retires for a few years now.
Joba said he doesn't care because he's in the major leagues now and how many people can say that. He's going to lose that attitude soon (I think) and want to sail his own ship so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Mariano has made a nice career out of being the Yankee closer, is a first ballot Hall of Famer, and is slowly inching his way to the top of the all time save list. It's not a bad act to follow.
But it's his career and if he really wants to start and be a starter and have a Clemens-like career (minus the juicing controversy), I'd like to see that too.
Can we have two Joba's please?
by bxgrl1 on Mar 21, 2008 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We do
That's the only way that starting in the pen makes sense, the Yanks FO must think that by midseason the next wave will be ready to crest. Out of the group of Humberto Sanchez, Mark Melancon, JB Cox, Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez, Ross Ohlendorf, Dan McCutchen, and Kevin Whelan someone will emerge. I'm really rooting for Sanchez, Whelan and Ohlendorf because those were arms added to the system in the Sheffield and RJ trades.
by jscape2000 on Mar 21, 2008 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not
by bxgrl1 on Mar 21, 2008 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Me neither
by matthaggs on Mar 21, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess
If you expect a 2004 Tom Gordon performance (.170/.218/.261 in 71 games, 8th inning only), that is a tall order.
A 2000 Jeff Nelson is more reasonable (.200/.311/.290 in 57 games, 8th only).
Topping last year's team 8th inning .263/.340/.439 shouldn't be hard at all. Someone in that group can be better than that.
For the record, Joba was .200/.273/.350 in the 8th last season (12 games, 44 PA).
by jscape2000 on Mar 21, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think
by bxgrl1 on Mar 21, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been banging my head against this all winter
The league average for the 8th inning last season was .257/.333/.401. Average. The Yankees' 8th inning was an "atrocious" .263/.340/.439. I know we're the big bad Yankees and we're supposed to have the best of everything, but this is a case where we don't have to have it (though, if we get it we can all be happier). Slight improvements all around will improve the team (duh) and a breakout year at a single aspect of the game could make this championship contender into a favorite. On defense, if Melky in center, Damon in left, plus Jeter's healthy knee and different workout. On offense, if more even seasons from Abreu, Melky, and Cano offsets regression for Posada and Arod plus someone (anyone?) in the lineup has an MVP season. In the rotation, if the Trinity suffer fewer growing pains than we expect. In the bullpen, if Hawkins' sinker keeps working and anybody becomes a go to guy (better than league average).
by jscape2000 on Mar 22, 2008 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe
If we suck and/or are rebuilding I can deal with that. Live and die with your team...but to watch the lead evaporate in the late innings is horrible.
by bxgrl1 on Mar 22, 2008 8:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Farnsworth
by SenorSwanky on Mar 22, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Farnsy
by jscape2000 on Mar 22, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Instead of
Then look at how many games seemed safe but Mo was forced into. And other games where he had to warm up on nights when there should have been no reason for him to do so. An unstable bridge has a ripple effect on not just the game that night but the games the next few days as well.
Until Joba arrived there was no one reliable out there besides Mo, and there hasn't been since Gordon left.
I'm just not ready to believe a handful of kids less talented than Joba might be the cure for this problem when Joba is in the rotation. I'm hopeful, but there are some here who border on delusional when talking about these kids.
Making the game seven innings long is a very powerful weapon. When the Yankees had this weapon last year they played their best baseball. We like to overcomplicate things, but it really is that simple.
by matthaggs on Mar 22, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
The Nelson/Stanton/Mendoza trio was solid but not dominant by any means.
How many times did Mo come in early to save the day during the dynasty? Mo had more 1+ IP saves than virtually every other closer in the league.
Mendoza was used all over the place, so he was erratic at times and Torre was often upset at Jeff Nelson because he gave away too many free passes. Remember those days?
Once the postseason starts, it hardly matters whether they have a great 1-2 punch in Joba/Mo if the starters are getting hammered and the team is losing by 4-5 runs in the 7th inning - something that has happened far too often since 2005.
Starters have managed just 3 quality starts in their last 13 postseason games while compiling a sickening 6.31 ERA and averaging just 4.2 IP per start. That's flat out atrocious and this team will not be winning anymore postseason series' until their starting pitching gets significantly better.
I'm with Jscape on this issue. Middle relief is one of the organizations biggest strengths right now and many of them are going to get a chance to show their stuff this season.
by anaconda on Mar 22, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
If you think what the Yankees have now is anywhere near solid (without Joba), you're nuts.
People are so desperate to prove that Joba belongs in the rotation that they are deluding themselves into thinking that guys who aren't even on the opening day roster will be solve the bullpen's problems. Call me crazy but I'm a little skeptical. Joba made it look easy. Three years of horrible bullpen work should tell you that it's not easy at all.
Maybe Joba does belong in the rotation. But the Yankees don't make the playoffs last year if he didn't join the bullpen. And I believe they could have overcome the poor ALCS starts of Wang and won the Cleveland series if not for the bug attack.
What good is a great start if the bullpen can't hold the game?
You can overcome a bad start and win a game. It happens all the time. Especially with the thunder the Yanks send to the plate every day.
It's much less rare for a team to overcome a bad bullpen performance and win a game.
by matthaggs on Mar 22, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
I don't want to see them limit his ceiling because he's got the best stuff in the organization and he's the most talented pitcher this club has developed in over a decade. Leaving him there all season retards his development as a starter because he won't be throwing his third and fourth pitches much and we'll be in the same predicament next year in regards to his innings cap. I believe he'll remain a setup man if he stays there all season and I just think that's a waste.
By the way, I never said that these other kids were guaranteed to be solid. I'm just willing to gamble on them for now - even at the expense of not making the playoffs this season. Their streak of playoff appearances has to end sometime and hey, there are times when you need to take a step back before you take two steps forward. Winning in 2008 is important, but building a rotation to win for years to come is even more important.
You can overcome a bad start and win a game. It happens all the time. Especially with the thunder the Yanks send to the plate every day.
Sure, that will fly on occasion in the regular season, but the postseason is another matter. Every Yankee fan knows the season is a failure if they don't win in October and this team hasn't overcome many bad starts against playoff teams in recent years they or would have a better postseason record than 4-9 to show for it.
by anaconda on Mar 22, 2008 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sweeny Murti explained my position perfectly
Starting pitching is where it starts and ends every year. For those who think the Yankees failures in recent years have come from the bullpen troubles, look again. Their bullpen may have gotten to October in better shape if their starters had been good enough during the season.
Last year Yankee starters pitched just 921 innings. In 2003, the last year they reached the World Series, Yankee starters totaled 1065 innings. That's a difference of 144 innings that had to be picked up by other pitchers. Strengthen your rotation and your bullpen isn't overused. If this wasn't the basic formula, you'd see teams throwing any old 5 guys out there they could and save their best arms for the bullpen. Ever see that happen?
Look, it's obvious that we're never going to agree on this issue because we have a fundamental difference in philosophy. I believe starting pitching should be their #1 priority at all costs and you believe they can overcome a weaker rotation by shortening the game to 7 innings. I just don't think that philosophy is good enough in the postseason against the elite teams. It's as simple as that.
by anaconda on Mar 22, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
All I'm saying is
1.) I think the Yankees are doing this backwards.
2.) The Joba for starter camp refuses to acknowledge (though you kind of did above finally) that making this move this year will likely have a negative impact on the Yanks 2008 won-loss record.
by matthaggs on Mar 22, 2008 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nelson, Mendoza and Stanton
by andyroth on Mar 26, 2008 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
You mean to tell me that the bullpen had more to do with winning rings than the rotation? That's ludicrous.
I've reference these stats several times over the offseason because they are extremely telling as to the reason why strong starting pitching depth (and Mo) was the key to World Series appearances. This list illustrates the number of times that Yankee starting pitchers threw at least 7 IP in a game:
- 54
- 77
- 91
- 69
- 67
- 64
- 79
- 87
- 53
- 56
- 44
- 43
It's the lack of depth and innings pitched by the starters that have been this club's Achilles heel since 2003. When you're starters are eating 7 IP+ almost every other night (as they were from '97 - '03), the middle relief becomes the biggest beneficiary because of the lack of exposure.
by anaconda on Mar 27, 2008 5:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know you won't like this
by andyroth on Mar 26, 2008 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome
In summary, the Yanks best chance to win the World Series this year is with Joba as the setup man.
This year's pitching staff has the potential to be very good, but there are no "sure things" outside of Mariano, Wang and Pettitte (assuming they're healthy).
To me, Joba as the setup man is a sure thing, and this staff needs all the sure things it can get.
My fear is moving Joba out of the pen mid-season might be the difference between making and missing the playoffs. And missing the playoffs could wreak havoc on the Yankee front office. The brothers Steinbrenner might use that as a reason to dump Cashman. And if they dump Cashman, all the work he has done the past few years re amassing young talent might go up in flames.
by matthaggs on Mar 28, 2008 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair point about Cashman
Personally, I'm ambivalent about Cashman returning next season. He's made some really bad and even inexcusable moves over the years but he's done some good things too, mainly, the shift in philosophy on player development and their aggressiveness on drafting high end talent.
That said, I would have to assume that Damon Oppenheimer would be the leading contender to succeed Cashman (unless he doesn't want it) and that philosophy on player development probably wouldn't change. The negative side of that coin is that they would be taking a major strength in Oppenheimer out of his current role and replacing him with someone who may not have his eye for talent. Perhaps I'm escalating Oppenheimer's skill as a talent evaluator, but he's had a pretty good track record lately.
As far as I'm concerned, as long as the organization sticks with the current draft philosophy and building from within, I don't care who the GM is next season.
by anaconda on Mar 28, 2008 6:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
by matthaggs on Mar 28, 2008 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sanchez and Melancon
20-25 453.2 IP 418 H 230 BB 446 K 4.17 ERA
Aside from averaging a strikout per inning NOTHING stands out in his minor leauge stats. I've never seen him pitch but then again you haven't either so you don't really know what kind of stuff he has. I do know he's coming off Tommy John surgery and to say that you think he's going to come up and dominate like Joba is absolutely ridiculous.
Mark Melancon, meanwhile has 8 innings under his belt at Staten Island and pitched one inning this spring and then was reassigned and you expect him to be able to dominate like Joba?
Last season Joba completely dominated on the minor league level (135 K, 88 IP) and threw consistently 95-97. There was some track record there along with his natural stuff.
How can you even mention Sanchez and Melancon in the same breath as Joba based on their miniscule history? This is complete junk you're writing that sounds like it's coming from a ten year old Yankee fanatic.
by andyroth on Mar 26, 2008 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
First, they're incomplete because we don't have his win/loss record for 2006 (AA-AAA). Not that I would use W-L in my evaluation, but it's best to be honest.
Second, by showing the stats from all 5 of Sanchez's minor league seasons, you ignore the progress he made in 2006 (he didn't pitch in 2007) when he put up a 2.63ERA and a 1.17WHIP, largely by being unhittable at AA (47H in 72IP). His control has also improved; his BB/9: 5.9, 6.1, 4.3, 3.8, 3.4. You always like to see BB trending downward in pitcher who will turn 25 this May.
Next, those stats were compiled as a starter, and don't do justice to the potential that Sanchez posses especially when switched to the pen. Sanchez was ranked ahead of Joba at this time last season, and was Baseball America's 57th best prospect in the entire game (Joba was 75th).
Finally, I was not saying that Sanchez or Melancon are as good as Joba, merely that they will be able to serve as a lights-out bullpen pitcher. I don't think even Joba can repeat is success last season (but I'll be happy if he does).
For what it's worth, I am a Yankee fanatic.
by jscape2000 on Mar 26, 2008 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
*here
by bxgrl1 on Mar 21, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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