Free Agents and Bear Markets

by Cbeck3 on Dec 3, 2008 12:35 PM EST

When the Yankees offered no one arbitration I spent a little while letting it sink in. Now I feel I have an understanding for what it means.

It means this is a bad, bad year to be a free agent.

The Yankees do not want Bobby Abreu on a 1 year contract for a small raise. They feel so strongly they'll forgo the draft choice they could have had offered arbitration and he'd signed elsewhere. They do not want to take the chance he'd take arbitration and try to sign in a better market next year.

The Yankees feel the same about Pettitte, and Giambi. Of course they feel the same about Pudge and Ponson. Moose is ...retired.

This means that the bidding prices for this type of player is going to be down, perhaps way down. The Yanks think it's at least possible that arbitration might be a move Abreu might make.

If the Yankees, with a new stadium full of higher priced boxes to sell out don't want to spend imagine how they feel in Kansas City or in Cleveland.

In support of this idea the FA signing is really off to a slow start. Players and their agents are waiting for offers which may well not be coming. Let's watch and see who signs for what.

The Yanks made a big offer for CC. We haven't heard anything more about other bids. The Yankees are not going to chase Texiera. So, it's possible that even for the top guys bidding wars will not develop.

Maybe the Yankees will try to hold to $180,000,000. I wonder if that will be enough? Suppose we sign CC and a low priced bench player and resign Andy, or a free agent equivalent and go to war with what we have. Is that enough team to give us a fun season and a run at the playoffs?

It would mean we had to go for a 5th season with Hughes, Kennedy, Acceves, Coke or sombody out of the farm or off the scrap heap. I guess that's not impossible.

The team would not have the offensive firepower we're used to. Maybe they think they don't really need it?

If we're in the playoffs with CC, CMW and Joba healthy we are a danger for anyone.

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I say:

Sign CC
Trade for Billy Butler (play him at 1st) or possibly Delmon Young (with swisher at 1st)? Either that or sign Teixeira.
Resign Pettite
Sign one of: Burnett(4 years), Sheets(2 year incentive), or Perez(4 years)
Sign some minor leaguers and a bench player or two. Make some small deals, etc, etc.
End offseason.
Dominate.

by schmosterballs92 on Dec 3, 2008 5:10 PM EST 0 recs

I was thinking about it too

in the back of my head I have a memory of Cashman saying $180M budget. I think he might have meant it.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Dec 3, 2008 8:25 PM EST 0 recs

I don't think Cash said it

I think it was said by one of the Times guys.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Dec 3, 2008 9:40 PM EST up 0 recs

you're forgetting about the down yrs for many last yr.

I’ve heard many posters complain about our lack of offensive firepower and how we need to spend on the offense this offseason.
Please keep in mind the following
1. matsui- he killed the ball until we lost him for half the season, how soon we forget. He should be back at full-strength.
2. cano- due to bounce back big-time
3. posada- ditto, we missed him more than anybody this year
4. Jeter- he can do better in 09
5. arod- injuries hurt his final numbers

That’s five huge cogs in our offense that will be at full-strength hopefully this year without costing us anything more.
I think 180 million makes great sense for us right now. Spend on pitching, not offense.

I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby

by kdog on Dec 3, 2008 10:58 PM EST 0 recs

I am not forgetting....anything

I am trying to be realistic.

I think this:

Posada is a question, at the very least we should see a lot more Molina than a normal backup catcher situation. Jorge is a great offensive catcher but pretty average as a DH or other position. (First or LF). I’ve had a rotator cuff injury. It takes a long time to heal. If the over under on Jorge’s catching games for the year was 110 I’d take under. That makes it hard to keep his bat in the lineup. I also expect him to come out if the game is not close.

Matsui may be healthy or not. History would indicate there’s a good chance he’ll have more knee problems.

X is a downgrade from Abreu offensively, a SIGNIFICANT downgrade.

Anyone who plays first (I assume it will not be Tex) will be a significant downgrade from Giambi.

Damon had an up year and was healthy. He may do less.

Jeter, Arod and Cano all better than last year? I hope your right but they do not figure to offset the downgrades in right and at first. Jeter and Arod had decent, perhaps average seasons. I think Cano is a good bet to be better.

Centerfield is a bad offensive hole. I do like Gardner but cannot say for sure he can cut it hitting in the bigs.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Dec 4, 2008 12:40 PM EST up 0 recs

Lefthanded power?

Yankee Stadium was built for lefthanded powerhitters. The new one is patterned on the old one in field dimensions. I do not think we’ll know how the ball will ‘carry’ in there until we’re in there. The wind situation will be quite different from the point of view of the swirling caused by the stadium superstructure. But where are our lefty hitters?

Losing Bobby A and Jason at the same time really affect the balance.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Dec 4, 2008 12:44 PM EST up 0 recs

mostly agree

Posada is definitely a question mark. But, if he is able to be out there on any sort of a consistent basis he is a huge improvement offensively over our catchers from last year.

Matsui is also definitely a question mark, but he will see significant time at DH which should improve the odds of his knee staying healthy.

X is a downgrade from Abreu offensively.

As for 1B, Tex would be the only “sure” bet to be better than Giambi and that doesn’t seem likely; however, while Swisher has less power than the big G, he sees a lot of pitches per AB (more than Giambi), is a switch hitter, and can actually play 1B. So I see him as a slight downgrade in offense coupled with a significant upgrade in defense. Whether they will offset is a guessing game.

Damon will probably regress. Another year older ain’t gonna help him.

I would expect the same from Jeter or perhaps slightly better as I think he had a pretty average year for him.

A-Rod seems to alternate between awesome years and average (for him) years. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see an uptick in production from him. Though I think that will depend largely on how the bats behind him are performing.

Cano seems to be a safe bet to improve. The question is how much?

CF is still a glaring hole and will probably not be fixed before opening day. Gardner doesn’t seem to have the stick to last in the bigs, though I hope he proves me wrong. I like grind-it-out type players and he can play the position well enough.

However – I really do think we will get CC. No one else seems to be realistically in the hunt for him.
I think we will land another FA pitcher (Burnett, Lowe, Looper, Sheets) and things will be smoothed over with Andy. That would pretty much be the best rotation we have had in years. And to be frank, while we had good offenses in the WS years – they were always carried by dependable starting pitching.

Girardi has demonstrated an ability to manage a bullpen that far exceeds Torre’s and the bullpen figures to be a strength again this year. He has some work to do in the ego/personality management department though. Those are the two most critical functions of a manager.

Our defense has been improved by adding Swisher – and X is probably equivalent to Abreu or at least close. Those are the big changes in terms of position players.

by losjanks on Dec 4, 2008 2:26 PM EST up 0 recs

Swisher? Look at his numbers!

He’s no Giambi! He’s actually the worst. The lowest batting average in the bigs with enough at bats to qualify. We HOPE he’ll do better but Giambi is a STAR hitter.

Look at X’s career, He’s a big downgrade from Abrue. Better defense may help offset the offensive loss but you cannot claim the offense will be anywhere near the same.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Dec 4, 2008 4:44 PM EST up 0 recs

The worst?

Batting average isn’t as good a win predictor as OPS. So while he may have had the lowest batting average among everyday players, I wouldn’t base too much on that alone.

Consider:

OPS+ over last four years:
Giambi: 161, 148, 108, 128
Swisher: 101, 125, 127, 92

A clear downward trend in Giambi’s numbers. While Swisher had a down year in ‘08, against an otherwise upward trend (in other words, maybe he was in a bad spot in Chi-town and was a bit unlucky, I have heard others post that his BA on balls in play was unusually low). Plus, consider their ages. I have enjoyed watching the ’Stache over the years as much as anyone, but his days as a huge star have passed us bye. I think it’s reasonable to expect Swisher to produce nicely, maybe even close to what Giambi is capable of all while playing much better 1B and being a switch hitter.

As for X, there’s no argument that he’s a downgrade offensively from Abreu, but I don’t believe I made that case. To be honest, I’m not so sure he’s going to be better defensively than Bobby.

by losjanks on Dec 5, 2008 12:07 AM EST up 0 recs

OK using your numbers

The last 4 years Giambi’s OPS+ averaged 136.25 with a standard dev of 23.
In the same period Swisher averaged 11.25 with a standard dev of 17.
It is very unlikely Swisher will produce offensively ‘close’ to what Giambi produced.
If he is our first baseman (and I wouldn’t be surprised by a surprise here) he is a big downgrade. And Big G’s hands catching the ball and saving bad trows were really excellent. He was just awful throwing and with bad range. He was good at the firstbaseman’s main job.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Dec 5, 2008 11:03 AM EST up 0 recs

Could somebody clear something up for me?

How is it we control Nady?? Looking on Cot’s he was only signed though ’08, with no apparent option or anything. Can anybody shed light on this?

The Jayfiss Report ...one fan's rants

by NumberSeven on Dec 5, 2008 11:17 AM EST 0 recs

He is stil arbitration eligible. This will be his final year before free agency.

by BTLove on Dec 5, 2008 10:23 PM EST up 0 recs

really

i would have thought he had passed that at this point. huh.

so they have until arbitration to get something done, or basically the salary is set by the arbiter? They don’t have to actually offer him arbitration- he gets arb unless they come to a deal before that— am I understanding that right?

The Jayfiss Report ...one fan's rants

by NumberSeven on Dec 6, 2008 12:11 PM EST up 0 recs