We still need Andy
by Travis G on Dec 27, 2008 12:18 PM EST
in Analysis
68 comments
The offer of $10 million for Andy Pettitte is still 'on the table', but a Yankee official says there's only about a 50% chance that he takes it. Otherwise, it will be Phil Hughes in the five spot. I'm anxious to see Hughes over the course of a whole season (knock on wood), but we still need Andy for several reasons -
1. Injuries will happen
A.J. Burnett doesn't exactly have a healthy track record, and Chien Ming-Wang, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes are coming off a season in which they all missed time with injuries.
2. Innings limits
Joba and Hughes still have limits on how many innings they can go. Neither can pitch 200 innings next year, so we can only count on Wang, Burnett and Sabathia to pitch full seasons (if they remain healthy). Pettitte has gone at least 200 innings each of the last four years.
3. Pettitte wasn't that bad
2008 was his worst season in terms of ERA+ and W-L record, but going deeper into his stats shows a different story. His K/BB was its best since 2005, as was his FIP ERA. His BABIP was also at its highest since 2001, so luck clearly had a part in his disappointing year. Therefore, we can reasonably expect him to bounce back in 2009, just like Mussina this year.
0 recs |
68 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Andy
I do wish Pettittte would agree to play for the Yankees today. I get it that we need Andy next season, but It has been ten days to 2 weeks since Cash went out of his way to Houston to have a face to face with Andy about this offer. I think the Yankees should withdrawl the offer IF Petitte doesn’t sign by New Year’s day. If nothing is done by then it will be time for the Yankees and Andy to move on.
by awful13 on Dec 27, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's a big game of Chicken
Pettite isn’t worth 16 million, heck he isn’t even worth 10 million. But Andy knows the Yankees have big money and he thinks he can get some of it. Well too bad for him, he isn’t worth it. If the Yankees pull their 10m offer, then he’ll really be up a creek without a paddle because no other team in this league will offer him more than 5-6 million.
There’s about 150 free agents still unsigned out there, and we’re in a major recession and the Yankees have just about used up their budget. Prices are going to start coming way down for free agents, and I would expect Andy to come begging to the Yankees in March
by NYCYankee on Dec 27, 2008 1:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He is worth it
A league average veteran pitcher who eats innings is worth 10 million, and he is worth more than that to the Yankees. The Yankees will be making a big mistake (similar to that that other teams have made) if they do not take seriously the idea of retaining Pettite. Remember:
1)Hughes is still very very young, and he would have to be the 4th (not 5th) starter if Pettite does not come back.
2)Chamberlain will have a big cap on his innings. 150 is a stretch if you want him to even pitch in the post-season.
3)Remember still that there are a few health concerns. Burnett is freqently hurt, and Chamberlain is also a health concern, not because of the injury last year, but his history at Nebraska (which is why some teams passed on him in the draft).
It would be shocking to me if, after spending so much in the off-season to fix large holes in the team make-up, that this would not be a priority as well. Sucessful teams need arms, and you never can have enough. As a Sox fan I have seen this problems before. In 2006 Epstein thought Wells would be healthy and dealt Arroyo for Pena, which was a huge mistake. Last year, the Sox expected Schilling to pitch, and he could not. Then they signed Colon to fill in, which he did (well) until he blew his back out. With all of the other DL stints (Beckett 2X, Matsuzaka and Wakefield) Buchholz had to pitch, and he was a automatic loss (0-7) after his DL stint. Trust me-keep the reliable arms, let Joba transition gracefully into the pen when his cap comes up, and let Huges fill in and take over when needed.
by Buzzy on Dec 27, 2008 1:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pettite is all about himself
Pettite seems like a nice guy and probably is, but when it comes to contracts thats a different story. He should have jumped at the ten million being offered by the yanks given the current economic conditions. The yanks stood by him every step of the way when the steroid issue came up etc.
He isn’t even close to worth 16 mill a season and never will be again. I say we give him a deadline and move on and put some faith in our youngsters for the 5th spot. Believe me guys, the 5th starting spot should not make or break ur year but it’s nice to have depth… but at what expense??
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
by kdog on Dec 27, 2008 2:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
agreed!
" Washington focuses its bailouts on people who take showers before going to work rather than on those people who need a shower after they work. "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Dec 27, 2008 10:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
forget current economic conditions
The Yankees just tossed nearly 1/2 billion at free agents, and Pettite has been a Yankee most of his career. How is he “all about himself?” Plus, you fail to understand that due to innings restrictions Chamberlain must be the 5th starter (that role saves innings). Now, who is your 4th starter, Hughes? And what happens when he runs up on his cap? What happens when Burnett goes on the DL, as he has in every non-contract year? Hmm…
by Buzzy on Dec 27, 2008 2:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'll take hughes or joba at 4th and 5th starters
My point buzzy is our top 3 starters will make us or break us. Yes injuries happen but at some point we need to stop babying joba and hughes and really put their feet to the fire. We do not need to overpay for pettite and his god awful stats from last year just because we’re scared of injuries. The organization has a lot of pitching prospect depth according to Baseball America so we have arms to fall back on for once.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
by kdog on Dec 28, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No
The Yankees system has a lot of pitching depth but not in a conventional way. It is stocked with high ceiling/low probability arms that are “interesting” but project more for the pen and there is nothing that will fill this slot in the short term. Joba and Hughes are the very near future but you have to be realistic about limitations. Let me name them:
1)Joba pitched 100 innings last year. This means going above 140 is a big risk you should not take. And that leaves out pitching in the playoffs. A realistic and takable risk for someone with Joba’s injury history is +30 innings plus additional innings in the playoffs.
2)Hughes is 22 years old! He will be very good, but not at this age. Expect a progression to being an excellent pitcher by 25, but not 22. Regardless, he also pitched very very few innings. His max in the minors was 146, but that was at 20, and he does not have the strength/endurance yet.
Success is not made on the top three. It is made by your entire pitching staff. That is why Tampa will be very strong. Their top 4 are proven, and not only is Price talented, he pitched a crap-load of innings last year in the minors. He can carry the load of a #5. The innings pitched by your 4/5 matter as much as the innings pitched by your 1-3 (although there are fewer of them). Furthermore you cannot count on Burnett to be healthy. I tried to give one team’s experience with thinking they had enough arms when the did not. Did the Yankee’s prepare properly last year with their starting depth?
The smart thing to do is let Joba start the year as 5, move him to the pen when you need to, and let Hughes fill in that role when that happens.
by Buzzy on Dec 28, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
all very good points u make but....
We’ll have to agree to disagree that Pettite is the answer here. I see by your argument the very real need to add another starting pitcher. I just think Pettite at any more than 10 million a year is way too expensive no matter the yanks resources. I’m hoping one of the younger pitchers shows in spring camp that they are capable of eating some innings for the big club. I don’t believe Hughes would be effective in a reliever role as he has never done this before and he hasn’t prepared for this role.
I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it. ~Rogers Hornsby
by kdog on Dec 28, 2008 7:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
I understand. Hey, I am not even a Yankees fan, I am hoping they don’t resign him. There are not a lot of reliable arms out there on the market. Hughes will be a quality starter. What I was suggesting is that he starts next year, but as the 5 when Joba goes to the pen+spot starts for others. I think he will be in the rotation full time in 2010 or at absolute latest 2011.
Depth is something Cashman has neglected in the past, but it is crucial for a successful team. The Yankees of 1996-2000 were remarkably injury free, but that is uncommon.
BTW I should say I fully agree with Travis G’s point about FIP and BAPIP-Pettite is still pretty good, a lefty, and used to playing with his teammates and manager (eg no adjustment).
by Buzzy on Dec 28, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Um...
The Yanks won’t hire Pettitte for more than 10 mil. That’s out of the question. The issue is whether to keep the 10 mil offer on the table at all. And we’re not likely to go after another free agent. If it’s not Andy in the #4 role, it’ll be a committee of our youngsters in both the #4 and #5 slots.
And no one is talking about Hughes in the pen. Where’d that come from? He actually has been a reliever; you may remember he finished out Moose’s aborted start in the ‘07 playoffs masterfully. The dude has what it takes to pitch well in big spots if he can do so consistently. No one except maybe Aceves is going to be an “innings eater.” We’ll have to be flexible and patient and reserve our pen as much as possible for when the youngsters’ turn in the rotation rolls around.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 28, 2008 8:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's all about economic conditions
You’re a joke if you think Chamberlain or Hughes has remotely anything to do with having to give Pettite more money. Pettite won’t get anything near 10 mil anywhere else, so he’s going to take the money. If he’s too stupid to take it, the Yankees will sign someone else for less money.
by NYCYankee on Dec 27, 2008 9:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
are you that naive?
you’re a joke if you DON’T think Joba and Hughes have anything to with Pettitte. if they didn’t have viable SP options in those guys, they would probably offer Pettitte more money. it’s the fact that that they think they don’t need him that they’ve made this ‘take it or leave it’ offer.
by Travis G on Dec 29, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Andy
doesn’t sign, then we trade Matsui for a pitcher. but i would rather sign Andy along with a trade.
"Hey Derek do you actually drive the Edge?","I don't drive that piece of crap!"
by Da Shiz on Dec 27, 2008 10:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Matsui alone wouldn't get us any pitcher worth a rotation slot n/t
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 28, 2008 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The 2
posts above just show how stupid fans can be.
1)Matsui is essentially untradeable. Who wants an expensive, broken down corner outfielder who can’t field and can only hit for ordinary corner outfielder power? The Yankees will have to give Matsui away, and no team will do so for a pitcher who could be of value.
2)What other pitcher are you going to sign? Lowe? Lowe is no better than Pettite age-wise or ability-wise. Are you fooled by his “transformation” to being a better pitcher at an older age after going from the best hitting division in baseball to the worst? Lowe will command more than 10 Million and be no better. There are no other trustworthy arms out there (sure-you could try Sheets, Penny, Smoltz etc and then have to worry when said pitcher goes on the DL).
3)It does have to do with Hughes/Joba. Both are future mainstays of the rotation, and Joba already has shown he has great stuff even for a starter. Neither of them can pitch a boat load of innings, and both have been fragile in the past. Joba only went 7 innings once last year, and has broken down both last year and in college. You cannot simply push young guys like that.
Pettite is a reliable arm. He is used to eating innings and pitching in NY. He is a Lefty too (useful against both Boston and TB, although his L/R splits are not dramatic at all). The going rate for a reliable veteran pitcher of this type is in the 10 Mil range, and there are not a lot of options out there.
by Buzzy on Dec 28, 2008 9:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matusi trade
you could deffinitly trade Matsui, if u suck up part of his contract. I could see the Yankees trade him+some1 else to the Giants for a guys like Johnathon Sancehz, since they are shoping him and they need hitting.
"Hey Derek do you actually drive the Edge?","I don't drive that piece of crap!"
by Da Shiz on Dec 28, 2008 2:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Try again
you would have to pick up essentially all of his contract. That already will cost close to the argued amount for Pettite above. Let’s say the Giants are dumb enough to do this (recall that a similar trade was discussed 2 years ago when Matsui actually had value and nothing happened), what are you going to do with Sanchez? He is a 1.5 WHIP, 5+ ERA pitcher in a pitchers park in the weakest division in baseball let alone the NL. He is going to be your 4? Good luck.
by Buzzy on Dec 28, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Haha, seriously
Plus, what are the Giants going to do with a DH in a league where there is no DH? They need power, but they don’t need a part-time LF who can’t really play the position anymore.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 28, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was
just suggesting something to make a point. calmb down buddy.
"Hey Derek do you actually drive the Edge?","I don't drive that piece of crap!"
by Da Shiz on Dec 29, 2008 12:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What was the point you were trying to make? n/t
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 29, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
to be fair
Sanchez would be a good target, if that was the point he was trying to make. Despite my dismissal, he does have good stuff, and he strikes out a lot of guys. I think I would trade Matsui for him in a heartbeat, but I don’t think the trade would ever go down, and I don’t quite think Sanchez would fill the role (yet) that we are discussing here. Just my 2 cents…
by Buzzy on Dec 29, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thxs
i was just suggesting they could trade Matsui in a trade sorta like that. I heard the Giants were looking to trade Sanchez right b4 that,and I know the Giants have little hitting.
"Hey Derek do you actually drive the Edge?","I don't drive that piece of crap!"
by Da Shiz on Dec 30, 2008 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why are we throwing 10 at andy
when the Sox are getting Brad Penny for 5M? I would take that Penny deal over this one for our last starter in a heartbeat. If youve ever seen Penny throw in person, he makes it look so easy – great motion.
by ryanwk628 on Dec 29, 2008 11:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Penny
the Penny signing is a smart one, but the teams are in a different situation. The Sox are set 1-4 with arms they expect can carry 200 innings each. They also have Masterson to pitch 5, and if they want him for the pen, they have Buccholz/Bowden for 5.
The difference may not seem so big, but it is the following-the Yankees are set 1-3, not 1-4 with veteran arms. Joba cannot pitch more than 130/140 innings without serious risk, and Hughes is 2 years younger than either Masterson or Buccholz, anc can carry less of a load at this point. Thus, Penny (who has shoulder problems and was awful last year) is riskier. The Sox don’t need him to toss 200 innings, but they hope he can give them a quality performance in the 5 spot the first half of the year. If he does, they will stay with him (and at that point he will earn 8mil with incentives, not 5). If not, then the young 3 will pick up the slack. If Penny played the role the Yankees need, he would earn 8Mil. I am not so sure the difference is so big, and I am not so sure how good Penny will be after last year (look at the numbers).
by Buzzy on Dec 29, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sure sure
I hear you and I love Andy, but I would not consider him on the upswing either. 10 Million for a one year spot filler just seems like a lot. In a market with no one spending thats the best we can do?
by ryanwk628 on Dec 29, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't love Pettite
I have no love or hate for him. Nor do I think he is a great pitcher. I just think it would be a silly move on the part of the Yankees to not try to retain him given the strides they have taken to improve the team and the lessons of the past regarding depth. It is silly to think somehow with CC, Burnett and Teix that the team cannot/will not fall prey to the lack of depth problem, especially given the fact that the young arms cannot be stretched too far at this stage. While things look rosey recall that Wang looked not so great last year even before going down with a freak injury, CC has never fared well agains the ALE, and Burnett is always hurt. Further, Burnett was not so great last year in his “healthy year.” Lastly Joba, regardless of the cap, is a injury risk as he showed last year, and in college. In fact, that is why several teams passed on him in the draft and he fell to the 40’s.
I agree Pettite is not worth more than 10Mil, but I really think he is needed and there is not much out there. Lowe will get overpayed by the Mets to the tune of at least 13 Mil a year. Anyway, you guys just payed 22.5 Mil for a 1b for 8 years. He is very good, but that is too much for a guy who has a career OPS+ that is the same as Jason Bay, plays 1b, and has shown diminished HR power (although better disipline at the plate).
by Buzzy on Dec 29, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
Wang was 8-2 before he was injured. IIRC, he had the best record in the AL if not all of MLB at the time. He was having the best season of his career, especially in April, when he was 5-0.
I do agree with you that depth is always a good thing (believe me, I’m a Tar Heel alum, and our basketball team thrives on it), but I think the real glaring depth problem is not in our rotation but on our bench. We need a good utility infielder to plug in if Jeter or, heaven forbid, ARod gets injured.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 29, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I
just mean that his ERA+ was actually worse than Tim Wakefield’s(!). However I agree that is not the best way to view his performance last year, and by other metrics he was fine, but not spectacular (as usual for him).
By the way, if there is a less useful way to view his performance than ERA (or even ERA+) it is W-L record. Let’s not Joe Morgan this. He started the season well, but lagged. I recall he seemed to be trying to broaden his pitch selection away from reliance on the sinker, and it was not entirely effective. One thing you can always say for Wang, however, is that is is pretty damn consistent.
by Buzzy on Dec 29, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just looked at
CMW’s stats from last year, his bb’s were significantly up, as was his bb/k ratio. He was a bit tougher to hit, but overall (if you take 95 innings as a sample size worthy of looking at) it was his weakest year so far, but not by so much.
by Buzzy on Dec 29, 2008 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course
W-L isn’t the best way to measure him. But his trying to work in his slider more to compensate for hitters getting used to his sinker is only smart. Obviously he’d have a bit of a rough time doing that at first, but he still managed to win a ton of games, and his K rate was up, lessening the need for our infield defense to deal with all those ground balls. He’s smart. That’s the kind of pitcher we need around. Moose is the same way.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 29, 2008 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think 10 mil is too much
There is no doubt the Yankees are better with Pettitte, given the depth he’d add, but the price tag seems high, especially when you consider the market values for Johnson and Penny. The other cent of my two is over here at BtB.
by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 29, 2008 12:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Problem
We’re looking for a #4 starter here, not our #5, which is Joba.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 29, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's a good point
Still, if the Yanks do bump Joba to 4 and go with “fill in the blank” at 5, they’ll still be in the thick of it, and looking for pitching help come July.
by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 29, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If Joba is #4...
…he’ll last several weeks fewer in the rotation before we have to move him to the pen for the late season and (hopefully) postseason.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 29, 2008 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hi Harry
thanks-that is a nice analysis. I think in some ways it makes sense, and of course 10Mil of Pettite is a lot. I think where I disagree is that it is not really just the 5 that the Yankees need to fill. Joba should be capped at 130 next year INCLUDING the playoffs. Of course the Yankees won’t do that, but he can’t pitch much more than that. Hughes will have a cap too, and is only 22. It won’t hurt to pitch one more year in the minors. On the other hand, I doubt he can go much beyond 160 innings at this age given the progression. That leaves something like 110 innings beyond having Joba and Hughes at the back of the rotation. Further, this is assuming a full and healthy season from Burnett.
Assuming good health but prudent arm managment, wouldn’t taking the realible route and having Pettite take the role of starter, while conserving Chamberlain and still giving Hughes some importnat innings late in the season make more sense? And I don’t understand the comparison with Penny-he has a bum shoulder, was awful last year, but will make 5/8 for the Sox. That means if he pans out, he will be making 8Mil for the Sox.
by Buzzy on Dec 29, 2008 1:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think this comes down to dollars
I agree that having Pettitte on the staff would give the Yanks a deep rotation and would be, in general, a really good thing for the team on the field. They should be ablo to cobble it together without him – but you do raise a good point on Joba’s limitations. They may be more significant than I figured.
Re Penny, he’s set to get 8 million (as you noted, with incentives) if he’s an effective back of the rotation guy. So, IMO, that puts Pettitte’s offer a couple mil ahead of the mark, which isn’t drastic. I suspect the Sox and Yanks are paying, or should be, about the same per marginal win, btw.
So, I might just be quibbling over the price tag. But, if the Yankees choose to spend that money elsewhere, they’ll be OK – I don’t think it will make or break the season.
by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 29, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Question for Harvey
I didn’t to ask you this over at BtB, but are you a Yankees fan? Did you watch the team everyday? Do you remember when guys like Jeff Karstens, Kei Igawa, Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner, Matt DelSalvo, and Chase Wright were making regular starts?
by Omar Little on Dec 29, 2008 3:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nope
But I do remember when those guys combined for some ugliness. There’s no doubt the Yankees need a good back of the rotation, but, even if they choose to let Pettitte go (which is not unreasonable, IMO), they’ll probably be OK.
If anything, Penny to Boston changes the calculus, wouldn’t you agree? No matter what, I’d say the Yankees may want to keep Pettitte now more than before that happened.
And hopefully those guys you listed won’t see much action for them this year, in any case.
by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 29, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
We don’t even have Rasner, Karstens, or DeSalvo anymore, and Ponson’s a free agent. I could see Wright getting another shot at a spot start if we’re in a pinch, but Hughes, Kennedy, and Aceves (particularly the latter, to start off with, I imagine) will get the bulk of the chances. And one of them will take over Joba’s rotation spot for the last almost half of the season (I figure they’ll need to stop Joba at about 100 innings as a starter so he can be useful in the pen).
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 29, 2008 6:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You know what I mean
I don’t want to see garbage like that in the rotation, and Hughes has his own injury history, Ian Kennedy is absolutely unfit for the AL East, and Aceves looks like he can be serviceable…you do not see the huge potential for a sh*t show?
by Omar Little on Dec 29, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Probably Be Okay
I’ve seen enough garbage in the rotation over the past few years to know that this is not correct.
by Omar Little on Dec 29, 2008 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pettitite is huge...
The Yanks are listening to everyone saying that the Yanks are the team to beat b/c of Tex.
AP gives 200+ innings, a 4-4.50 ERA. He makes the pen better too, b/c he eats innings. The Yankees are overpaying for everyone but a 1 year pitching deal is very low risk. I would guess that even at $13M for 1 year Pettitte is a great signing for any club.
You look at Yankee rosters for the last 3 years and the pitching has been subpar. Your 4-5 guys don’t need to have a below 4 ERA (they almost never do), but they also almost never eat more than 150 innings a piece. AP can do this and I think he is far more essential to the club than Yankee brass realizes as they’re still wiping up all their spooge resulting from landing Texiera.
by halflink123 on Dec 29, 2008 8:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Some WAR/Projections
Using CHONE and some guesses and different scenarios, and handy spreadsheet Sky Kalkman put together, and voila. Grain of salt time – Pettitte would be worth 0.5 – 2.0 wins, depending on how healthy the “other four” starters are. Could be more, could be less, could be run with another projection system etc etc.
Pitcher IP ERA LEV WAR CC Sabathia 220 3.41 1.0 5.2 AJ Burnett 200 3.88 1.0 1.9 Wang 200 4.47 1.0 0.5 Joba 130 3.39 1.0 2.1 Pettitte 190 4.31 1.0 0.8 10.6 Pitcher IP ERA LEV WAR CC Sabathia 220 3.41 1.0 5.2 AJ Burnett 180 3.88 1.0 1.7 Wang 170 4.47 1.0 0.4 Joba 130 3.39 1.0 2.1 Pettitte 190 4.31 1.0 0.8 Hughes 50 4.28 1.0 0.2 10.6 Pitcher IP ERA LEV WAR CC Sabathia 220 3.41 1.0 5.2 AJ Burnett 200 3.88 1.0 1.9 Wang 200 4.47 1.0 0.5 Joba 130 3.39 1.0 2.1 Hughes 120 4.28 1.0 0.6 Kennedy 35 4.41 1.0 0.1 Aceves 35 4.95 1.0 -0.1 10.4 Pitcher IP ERA LEV WAR CC Sabathia 220 3.41 1.0 5.2 AJ Burnett 180 3.88 1.0 1.7 Wang 170 4.47 1.0 0.4 Joba 130 3.39 1.0 2.1 Hughes 120 4.28 1.0 0.6 Kennedy 60 4.41 1.0 0.2 Aceves 60 4.95 1.0 -0.2 10.1 Pitcher IP ERA LEV WAR CC Sabathia 220 3.41 1.0 5.2 AJ Burnett 120 3.88 1.0 1.2 Wang 170 4.47 1.0 0.4 Joba 100 3.39 1.0 1.6 Hughes 120 4.28 1.0 0.6 Kennedy 60 4.41 1.0 0.2 Aceves 60 4.95 1.0 -0.2 Igawa 90 4.77 1.0 -0.1 9.0 Pitcher IP ERA LEV WAR CC Sabathia 220 3.41 1.0 5.2 AJ Burnett 120 3.88 1.0 1.2 Wang 170 4.47 1.0 0.4 Joba 100 3.39 1.0 1.6 Pettitte 190 4.31 1.0 0.8 Hughes 100 4.28 1.0 0.5 Kennedy 20 4.41 1.0 0.1 Aceves 20 4.95 1.0 -0.1 9.8
by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 29, 2008 10:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Projections
I would venture that Wang would have a lower ERA than Burnett. Wang below 3.90 and Burnett over 4.05. I would expect Andy to be over 4.5 and really struggle again towards the ¾ point of the season. C.C’s looks good. If Joba spends time in the bullpen he will be under 3. As for Kennedy he would be over 8, as would Igawa. I would guess Hughes at his young age would be 6 or higher.
by Lyle40000 on Dec 29, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I won't go all the way to 8, but otherwise
But I still end up with 2.6 wins
Pitcher IP ERA LEV WAR CC Sabathia 220 3.41 1.0 5.2 AJ Burnett 200 4.05 1.0 1.5 Wang 200 3.90 1.0 1.9 Joba 130 3.39 1.0 2.1 Pettitte 0 4.60 1.0 0.0 Hughes 120 6.00 1.0 -1.4 Kennedy 50 6.50 1.0 -0.8 Aceves 10 5.25 1.0 -0.1 Igawa 10 6.50 1.0 -0.2 8.3 Pitcher IP ERA LEV WAR CC Sabathia 220 3.41 1.0 5.2 AJ Burnett 200 4.05 1.0 1.5 Wang 200 3.90 1.0 1.9 Joba 130 3.39 1.0 2.1 Pettitte 190 4.60 1.0 0.2 Hughes 0 6.00 1.0 0.0 Kennedy 0 6.50 1.0 0.0 Aceves 0 5.25 1.0 0.0 Igawa 0 6.50 1.0 0.0 10.9 Pitcher IP ERA LEV WAR CC Sabathia 220 3.41 1.0 5.2 AJ Burnett 150 4.05 1.0 1.1 Wang 150 3.90 1.0 1.4 Joba 100 3.39 1.0 1.6 Pettitte 0 4.60 1.0 0.0 Hughes 120 6.00 1.0 -1.4 Kennedy 100 6.50 1.0 -1.6 Aceves 50 5.25 1.0 -0.3 Igawa 50 6.50 1.0 -0.8 5.4 Pitcher IP ERA LEV WAR CC Sabathia 220 3.41 1.0 5.2 AJ Burnett 150 4.05 1.0 1.1 Wang 150 3.90 1.0 1.4 Joba 100 3.39 1.0 1.6 Pettitte 190 4.60 1.0 0.2 Hughes 120 6.00 1.0 -1.4 Kennedy 10 6.50 1.0 -0.2 Aceves 0 5.25 1.0 0.0 Igawa 0 6.50 1.0 0.0 8.0
by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 30, 2008 12:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
These Projects are making me Thirsty
Thanks for making some changes based on my WAG.
So the bottom line concerning these numbers is that Andy would be only worth 2.6 more wins. I find that hard to believe. The damage of having two starters going 3 or 4 innings per start has to be worth more than 2.6 games. The bullpen would be worn out. There would be some serious damage done to middle relief.
I know I suggested the change to the ERA, but would the Yankees give 100+ innings to a 6+ ERA.
I think the Yankees should get one more experienced back of the rotation workhorse starter, to provide insurance against injuries, to provide a more stable rotation, to save the bullpen. I would rather have Andy then what we have in triple A. But AP would not be my first choice. Andy is too old, he had a lot of problems finishing the season last year (last ten starts was 2 and 6 with 2 no decisions). I would sign Jon Garland.
by Lyle40000 on Dec 30, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My main beef
How in the world do they have Wang at only 22 starts for an 8-6 record? That’s basically projecting another major injury and lagging effects from last year’s injury. Otherwise, with Wang at full health, which I have no reason to believe he won’t be, he’ll be responsible for at least 30 starts and at least 15 wins.
Here’re Bill James’ projections, which I’m more inclined to believe.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 30, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Playing time projections
aren’t of much use. As far as stat accuracy, I don’t believe James has as good of a track record with pitching compared to some of the others (IFRC)
by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 30, 2008 9:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bill James Projections
The projections for Hughes are really optimistic. If Wang is the number three starter with the numbers projected he would have more than 13 wins. Looks more like the numbers if Yankees played in the NL West rather than the AL East.
Then again, Bill James is a nationally know baseball expert.
by Lyle40000 on Dec 30, 2008 9:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes he is
but it doesn’t mean there aren’t better projection systems available. They’re all different, strengths and weaknesses. For some reason, James’ doesn’t score as well against others when it comes to actual performance – although I haven’t seen 2008 compared to the projections yet.
by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 31, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Igawa
He’s not posting a 4.77 ERA and Kennedy won’t go 4.41. The second projection seems to be the most reasonable one. I’d say the rotation with Pettitte would go something like:
Sabathia 34 starts, Burnett 26, Wang 30, Pettitte 30, Joba 20 which leaves twenty two starts for guys like Hughes and Aceves. That figure is optimistic for Joba and Burnett too. I really don’t want to give 52 starts to a core of Hughes/Aceves/Kennedy. Let alone the garbage behind them on the depth chart.
by Omar Little on Dec 30, 2008 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Joba
I doubt he’ll make 20 starts. We’ll want to allow him to pitch as much as possible in each of his starts so he gets used to the stamina of being a starter and not being able to know when you’re coming out or that there’s an arm in the pen warming up in case you screw up. He’ll be limited to 130-140 innings for the entire season, including a possible postseason (in which case he’d probably reach 140 innings in the pen, but that’d be stretching it). If he averages even 6 innings per start, which would be fantastic, he’d almost be at his cap if he makes 20 starts.
I say more like 16-18 starts (or about 85-105 innings). That way he’ll have 25-40 innings to pitch from the pen during the regular season, still allowing for a lot of use (about an inning every two to three games), plus 10-15 innings during the postseason, which is pretty abundant considering Mo’s postseason IP in the six seasons we’ve reached the World Series during his career are 14.1, 13.1, 12.1, 15.2, 16, and 16. This is all assuming, of course, that Joba is the fifth starter (not fourth) and stays healthy enough to pitch according to plan (about a little over half a season of starts and a little under half a season in the pen).
This will also allow Hughes or Aceves or Kennedy almost half a season’s worth of starts in place of Joba, which would be good for their development. Hughes’ cap will be about 100 innings, so that’d be perfect.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 30, 2008 4:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A few things....
The Yanks have no intention of putting Joba back in the pen unless they are forced into it because of injury. Cashman has said since the day he was signed to that three-year extension that Joba will be a starter for the duration of 2009.
And Hughes’ innings cap will be closer to 150 IP next season (not 100 IP) if he manages to stay healthy (not a guarantee considering his injury-riddled 2007 and 2008 seasons). One of the primary reasons he was sent to the AFL was to log innings because he missed so much time.
Hughes threw a grand total of 112 IP between the minors, majors, and AFL in 2008. That puts him on pace to throw roughly 150 IP in 2009.
Hopefully, most of those innings will be thrown in Scranton because the Yanks need to resign Pettitte and stabilize the back end of that rotation with someone who is a good bet to throw 200 IP.
If they don’t resign Pettitte and give the job to Hughes – they are just an AJ Burnett DL stint away from having Hughes and Kennedy/Aceves as their #4 and #5 starters while Joba gets bumped up to the #3 slot.
That’s not a good idea. They really need Pettitte back.
by anaconda on Dec 30, 2008 5:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
If Joba remains a starter, they’ll not only have to take advantage of off days by keeping the other four starters on four days’ rest all the time, but they’ll have to skip quite a few of his scheduled starts, putting him on even more irregular periods of rest than the #4 starter usually has. They’d then have to either use the long man they’ll inevitably have to have in the pen or use the next starter (likely Sabathia) on short rest and decrease everyone’s rest by yet another day. Is there precedent for doing this? If so, how did it work?
I forgot about Hughes’ AFL innings. The 100 was based on his (IIRC) 76 or so innings pitched in the majors and minors.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 30, 2008 5:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re:
They’ll definitely have to get a little creative with Joba’s innings but he’s technically going to be the fifth starter.
Most teams don’t even need five starters the first couple weeks of the season because of so many off days and game postponements because of bad weather. And those postponements are always made up later in the season.
I’m sure it’s been done before – by whom I cannot tell you. But frankly, the rotation is where he needs to be and I hope there’s no talk about him ever going back to the pen again once he establishes himself as a force in the rotation.
Who knows, maybe managing his innings this season might turn out to be easier than we think.
by anaconda on Dec 30, 2008 7:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Meant to say "periods of rest than the #5 starter usually has" not "#4"
He has to be the #5, no question. That does bolster the case for bringing back Pettitte. I suppose that’s why they haven’t withdrawn their offer to him.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 30, 2008 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think so
A fundamental flaw of my analysis was Joba=4. Throw away that assumption, tack on his and Hughes’ inning caps, and suddenly $10 million for Pettitte sounds better.
by Harry Pavlidis on Dec 30, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Forget Andy... Make a Trade with the M's
for Erik Bedard. Give them Kennedy, Matsui and another prospect, like Robertson, Aceves, Coke or even Brackman. Might even give them Cano straight-up and sign Orlando Hudson.
Do what you feel.
by O Coelho on Dec 29, 2008 10:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Is this fantasy baseball or reality?
Be serious.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 29, 2008 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey if he is healthy he can be a reallly solid number 2 or an ace type guy.
He’ll be ready for ST but being an M’s fan and seeing what we gave up for him we’d like to trade him only if the right deal comes along but that is hard because his value is pretty low right now.
BOOYA! You got Slurved!
by Slurvey on Dec 30, 2008 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The main thing is...
…we’d trade several good players for a pitcher coming off an injury who we’d have for only one year before he files for free agency. Why would we trade players when we can use the ones we have or sign Pettitte for cheaper? The potential draft pick and Bedard’s greater upside over Pettitte if healthy are not worth it, I don’t think.
Also, it would be stupid to include Cano in any deal, period.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 31, 2008 4:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Actually Bedard was just cleared to pitch the 8th of December, it’s a fantasy…but a fantasy for the Ms that they’d get Brackman or Aceves. Let alone Cano.
by Omar Little on Dec 30, 2008 1:42 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
No Way
You can not go after Bedard. He will end up just like Carl did. A lot of potential but not a lot of production
by David R on Dec 31, 2008 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not exactly
He is injury-prone, but he couldn’t be exactly like Pavano because, as I pointed out above, we’d only have him for a year. He’ll be a free agent next fall.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Dec 31, 2008 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Community Guidelines
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
