Sizing Up the Opposition (1 of 3)

the war is not won on head-to-head record. Any one who says that the Yankees have not vastly improved on a team that won 89 games last year is not being honest. On the other hand, the East might be closer than you think. To estimate how far apart the teams would be next year based on the teams as they were made up last year, it is best to look at Pythagorean record. The Yanks last year finished 4th in the AL East, the Sox first with a gap of 8 games. By more advanced Pythag the gap was bigger. All three top teams had significant injuries, that were more or less a wash (it is not useful here to make the same lists we have seen on various sites. Fans of each team will say their team’s injuries were worst).

Now, looking forward to next year, a simple way to estimate is to look at WAR as the teams are now comprised. I have not done this, but I think RJ Anderson has on DRaysBay. If I recall correctly, his conservative estimate is Yankees 94, Sox 93, Rays 90. That sounds about right to me. I would say that on paper, the Yanks are the best team in the AL East for next year, but the gap is not so large.

Given that the rest of the East is still strong, I think the odds of the Yanks finishing first are quite good, but all of the random factors that could come into play (for all contenders) will actually decide the fate of the division. For the Yankees pitching wise it will be health (Burnett, Joba, Rivera) the success of a pen that pitched a whopping 40% of the teams total innings last year. Offensively it is important to note that major players are aging (Damon, Posada, Jeter) and in the case of Posada, a decline of epic proportions has to happen for a catcher at some time. I think if the Yankees are healthy and perform up to expectations, they will be very hard to beat.

I’m not a Yankees fan…but I don’t hate the Yankees either.

Maddon recently said that he’s not especially concerned about the Yankees’ offseason moves, and I would have to agree with him.

The Rays have a club with great defense and great pitching. The starting 5 will be: Shields-Kazmir-Garza-Price-X. The Yankees, despite their vaunted (and overpaid) lineup last year, scored only 15 more runs than the Rays.

There are still a lot of question marks with the starting pitching. If Burnett gets hurt, unless Joba and Hughes mature, the staff will be 1 pitcher deep.

The Sox got a bit better in the offseason; anything they do from here will be nice. They will have Masterson and Buchholz, two unproven players much like Joba/Hughes, have an opportunity to get more experience.

Don’t get me wrong, the Yankees have a very good team. However, it’s still not clear that it’s better than the other 2 clubs in the division. They got some very high profile guys. But like I said, in terms of offense, Tex is a marginal improvement over Giambi, and the Sabathia and Burnett signings were necessary to fix a broken staff.

The Yanks last year scored 62 more runs than they allowed last year. This was actually 4th in the league behind Boston (151), Toronto (104), and Tampa (103).

Like I said, the Yankees are much improved and needed to do this. But it will be hilarious if they don’t get into the playoffs or win the division next year.

I agree with Maddon however that the Rays will be more mature next year. That club has a great makeup, they are young guys that want to win. They will be a better club, and until someone beats them, they are the guys with the pennant.

is covered in my post above (eg the net runs which is what factors into pythag), but you are wrong about several things. Teix is a big upgrade over Giambi in defense alone. It is true that the Yankees were an ordinary offense last year, but that will not be the case this year. The same offense, healthier and younger, scored 960 runs in 2007. While Abreu and Giambi are a loss on offense, a healthy Posada+Swisher+Matsui+Teix>Giambi+Abreu+Molina+Melky+1/2*Matsui. A key will be health of more fragile and aging guys like Posada, Damon and Matsui(if they keep him). 900 runs seems reasonable. Further, if Burnett is healthy (a big if) and if they get a 4th starter (Petitte, say) they have a deep and talented rotation. When Joba reaches his cap they can use Hughes there and move him to the pen.

Tampa is a very young and talented team, but as I said, they are not a better team on paper than NY. (btw Price will be the 5, Sonnenstine will be the 4, and he is good and improving). The division is very strong and any one of these teams could finish 1 or 3.

a few years ago, the Tigers, with great young pitching, looked like a budding dynasty. They were — on paper.

You need a special make-up — not just baseball skills — to be competitive year after year. And you need youth. Even great players decline at a certain point.

Jeter, Posada, Matsui, Damon, Wang have the right stuff in my view. But age and health undermine the core. (Mariano is a freak of nature — I’ll give you an edge there until I see something different.) Maybe Joba has it. I think even Hughes may have it.

Beckett, Lester, Pedroia, Lowell, Lowrie, Youkilis, Ortiz and, I think (lonely view) Masterson have the right stuff. But Lowrie might not have enough talent, Ortiz and Lowell may never recover fully from their injuries and age, and Beckett may go down with injuries.

In a close race, there is only one player available who undisputably has both amazing skills and ice water in his veins in the clutch. He has at least 2 years left, I think, and if you are willing to pay him for 5 years at an extravagant level, then the Yanks might get a world championship in next two years.

Going forward, thereare two main questions: who will get it done next year?

And what manager will help most by keeping the clubhouse on an even keel?

Sox have edge at manager. Young toughness in Lester, Pedroia, Lowrie, Masterson and Youkilis.

Jscape, double or nothing on the 20 push-ups as to which team finishes ahead next year?

that any of the 3 can finish 1st or 3rd, it will be close, as it was last year. Actually I didn’t notice that the Yankees scored more than 900 runs the last 2 years before 2008.

It’s sort of tough to say where in the 800-950 run range the Yankees will be in. I know Tex is a bit better offensively and a lot better defensively than Giambi, but…if you size up the lineups and the rotation: I won’t go threw it, but the lineups are more evenly matched than people think. The Sox have a slight edge at CF, RF. The Yanks have a big edge at 3B, SS, C. And a light at 1B. But the Sox have an edge with the staff, even now.

Whatever happens, I think the fans (regardless of the team that they root for) win here because the AL east will have 3 very good teams battling it out all season.

They are 3 very good teams and the wildcard probably won’t come from the AL East because these guys will be tearing each other to shreds.