Melky vs. Cameron

by charlievona on Dec 11, 2008 11:41 AM EST Comment 13 comments

Ok.. Let me start out by saying that I admit to being a long time Melky supporter. From the first game he played vs. the Red Sox I have dubbed Melky "My Boy." That being said he was a complete let down last year. However he is only 23, has shown potential and reminds me a lot of Bernie.

Lets take a look at the last 3 years Melky vs. Cameron

Melky : 160 RBIs, 11 Triples, 23 HR's, 62 2B's, 184 Runs, 34 Steals, 187 SO's .270 AVG, 330 OBS

Cameron: 231 RBI's, 17 Triples, 68 HR's, 92 2B's, 245 Runs, 60 Steals, 444 SO's, 251 AVG, 338 OBS

Yes, obviously Cameron is a better run producer. Nobody will argue that. But, Melky has almost a 20 point better BA. Also you have to examine the roles of these 2 players. Cameron bats 3,4, or 5 in the Brewers lineup while Melky has bat 8, or 9 and sometimes 1. He has no opportunity to produce runs. That was not Melky's job.

You also have to ask yourself "What do the Yankees really need right now?" I think most people got tired of seeing rally killing DP's and K's last year, especially by Mr. A-Rod. The one thing that cost the Yankees last year was their inability to score runs when it counted, or keep an inning alive. I just don't see how a guy who averages near 150 SO's a year is what we need.

Lastly you can't ignore the fact that Melky is 23 and Cameron soon to be 36. One thing I really loved about last year was the energy that the young guys brought to the clubhouse. If you add Cameron that leaves you with Cameron, Damon, Matsui, Jeter, A-Rod, Posada all in the field in their mid 30's. That team 5 years ago might have been great, but right now is simply just too old. There is a certain flare that Melky, Cano, and certainly Joba bring to the team. Speaking of which how will Cano respond to losing his best friend. He was bad enough with Melky gone for a third of last year. I say that we keep Melky, and, as weird as it is to say, try to have a team more like the Rays. I really think that this deal could come back to haunt the Yanks in a few years. Sacrifice the few dingers and RBI's and for God's sake Cashman keep some of our young guys for later years.

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And Also...

I would bet a good deal that CC asked Cashman to do this before taking his 160 Million Dollars….

by charlievona on Dec 11, 2008 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nonsense

Melky is overrated. Last year, he outright stunk.

I wrote this in the other post about the trade, but Melky has over 1,500 major league plate apperances. What we’ve seen from him these past 3 years is what we’ll get in the future. It’s nothing to get excited about.

You can talk about “scoring runs when it counts”, “flair”, and “energy”, but none of those things are objectively quantifiable. Cameron is a far better hitter (strikeouts and all) than Melky. Their defensive abilities are comparable. Having Cameron in center would be a significant improvement going into 2009.

by 3460kuri on Dec 11, 2008 11:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

while I

generally agree that Melky’s future now looks a lot dimmer than it first appeared, your argument isn’t a strong reasoning, just to use a example, the first 1500ish plate appearance of some outfielder from his age 20 to 24 season looked like this.

280/.313/ .385 , 137/69 K/BB , he didn’t even steal bases (10 SB vs 9 CS in 5 freaking season)

guess who? Roberto Clemente. who finished his career with a .317 /.359 /.475 line at age 37 .

it isn’t exactly unheard of for someone to suddenly take a new level after quiet a few years in the majors if he started very young (just check out our newest SP Mr. Sabathia for that), which is the case with Cabrera, that doesn’t mean it WILL happen, but it MIGHT happen.

There are some positives in Cabrera that can’t be overlooked, he has shown some occasional pop (like last April) and when he first came up he showed a pretty solid approach at the plate. there’s a reasonable chance that he turns into a pretty solid player.

As for this trade, I think it’s a bit meh for both side, Cabrera has some potential but the likelyhood of it happening isnt high. I guess then again, the Brewers being able to dump a big contract for something that has at least a ok floor and some potential to improve isn’t terrible but it’s also not great. for the Yankees, Cameron is a better player than Cabrera “right now” but while CF is a need this clearly isn’t a long term solution at all. and it might prevent the Yankees from getting guys that might be a long term solution somewhere (hint hint Mark Teixeira hint *hint*)

by RollingWave on Dec 11, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s tough to compare raw stats from the 1950s to the 2000s. The game was totally different. Plus, Roberto Clemente’s first 1500 plate appearances came at ages 20-22, while Melky’s came at ages 22-24. That makes a BIG difference.

I said this in the other post – there are indicators you look at to see if he really is improving. Is he walking more frequently? No, Melky is actually walking far less than he did his first season. Are a greater % of his flyballs leaving the yard? No, there’s been little change in this category.

This is a one year stopgap solution, and a good one at that. Nothing more.

by 3460kuri on Dec 11, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Age gap ...

Age has little to do with how someone performs. Your comment that Clemente’s appearances came at ages 20-22 and Melky’s came at 22-24 doesn’t make sense.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Dec 11, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You’re right, I’m off on the ages. Beleive it or not, Melky’s birthday is 8/11 and Clemente’s was 8/18.

In any event, age actually has a LOT to do with how somebody performs. It’s a statistical fact that hitters generally trend upwards as they get older, eventully peaking usually around the ages of 27-30 (give or take). Yes, there are exceptions to this trend, but this is a bell curve distribution, and probably 90% or more of all the hitters who have played in the last 40 years peaked during that age bracket.

Knowing this, we can take a player who is 24 and has a few seasons under his belt and look for statistical indicators of progress, beyond raw Batting Average, number of Home Runs, etc. As I’ve said, we don’t find these in Melky’s stat line. His unintentional walk rate has decreased each year – 10% of his Plate Appearances in ‘06, 7% of PAs in ’07, and 5% of PAs in ’08. That tells us his plate discipline is worsening. Hitters tend to develop power as they age, but Melky hasn’t. About 5% of his flyballs left the yard in ’06, ’07, and ’08.

Finally, the ultimate indicator: Balls in Play Batting average. If this is significantly higher or lower than .300, it tells us one of two things – he’s either a very good, or very bad, hitter, or that he’s been the recepient of very good, or very bad, luck. In ’06, his BABIP was about .310, in ’07 it was .290, and in ’08 it was .270. Some fluctation, but nothing completely unusual.

Putting it all together, we have a player with 3 full seasons under his belt, yet he is walking less than he did 3 years ago (bad), hasn’t developed power (bad), all while receiving generally average luck on BABIP. Odds are, 2007 is the type of season we could most likely expect from Melky Cabrera in the next few seasons – an OBP around .330 and an SLG around .390 coupled with passable defense. He’s a solid fourth outfielder.

Yes, Melky could beat the odds and become the next Roberto Clemente. Anybody could. Predicting the performances of young players is like playing the lottery. Some just have more tickets than others.

by 3460kuri on Dec 11, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are right. Melky isn't likely the next Clemente

But your age theory simply isn’t correct. Of course a younger player tends to trend up … but it’s not due to age, it’s due to innate ability and experience—at-bats. Age simply isn’t an indicator of success. True, if you grab a 32 year old you can expect a decline, but that’s not the point.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Dec 11, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You’re partially right and so am I.

Age has some correlation to physical abilities and development – there’s a reason why we just don’t see 18- and 19-year olds in the majors very frequently, so when a player posts solid numbers in his age 19 or 20 season – like Miguel Cabrera in 2003 or Alex Rodriguez in 1996 – this is a HUGE indicator of future success. If you pore through the annals of baseball history for players that fit this profile, you’ll find that many of them went on to be productive major leaguers, at the very least.

On the other hand, if you take somebody like Melky Cabrera, who posted competent numbers in his age 21 season, then regressed at age 22 and age 23, you just don’t have reasonable grounds to say “I think they’ll regret trading him”. Sure, he could beat the odds, but he’s probably the next Endy Chavez., not the next Roberto Clemente.

by 3460kuri on Dec 11, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't see ...

Melky really exploding into a superstar. I do think he has the potential to be a very good — but not great player. Endy Chavez is probably a fair assessment. Now watch, he’ll bust out for 25 homers 110rbi and win a batting title in 2009 :)

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Dec 12, 2008 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

error

Cabrera last year was his age 23 season, so the age difference is minimal, and Clemente didn’t really show consistent improvement either, his OPS+ in his first 3 season was

77/103/73

so he was pretty good in his second year thx to a high average, but in the other two year is just bad.

I’d definately agree that Clemente does not equal Cabrera in any sense, but the general logic still applies, there are plenty of cases where very young players showed meh improvements or even fell back in their early career only to make a sudden jump later on. Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon are all solid example of guys that were inconsistent or just not very good in their early 20s but later had a good career. but I digress, I agree that Cabrera’s chances of breaking out is low due to the same reason that you meantioned, but the possiblity still exist.

I like this deal if it had happened in a vaccum, but my problem is that if the Yankees have some limit to their budge (which I"m assuming they do) then I much rather live with Melky and go for Teix then trading Melky for Cameron

by RollingWave on Dec 11, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs