It's Not That Hard a Choice

by jscape2000 on Dec 1, 2008 9:04 PM EST in New York Yankees Analysis

	2008 IP	WHIP	K	BB/9	ERA+	GB/FB	Age
Pitcher A	211	1.133	147	1.92	131	2.63	35
Pitcher B	199	1.312	108	2.04	102	1.51	33

Pitcher A has been offered arbitration (and would cost the Yanks a draft pick), but Pitcher B has not.

Pitcher A figures to make around $15M, but Pitcher B is likely available for around $10M.

I'd fill the back end of the rotation with Braden Looper before Derek Lowe.

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On a one-year deal, maybe

But I wouldn’t commit to more than that. Lowe’s track record is much better than Looper’s. Lowe has pitched solidly in the AL East and has been a reliable starter for years; Looper was a reliever until last year, and he hasn’t yet had a super-.500 record as a starter, despite being only two years younger than Lowe. Lowe also has a 3.34 postseason ERA as both a reliever and starter in both the AL and NL, to Looper’s 4.60 in only relief in the NL.

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Dec 1, 2008 10:50 PM EST reply actions

Frankly

If you don’t want Lowe, OK. I can understand.

I cannot see Looper. In the big pitcher the 5 million is small change when you look at the delta in WHIP and ERA+

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Dec 2, 2008 1:14 AM EST reply actions

I didn't want to overload this with numbers

and since Looper was a reliever in 2006 and transitioning in 2007, 3 year averages are tough to track, but…
the last 3 years Looper has averaged around a .292 BABIP (.306/.285/.297), Derek Lowe has done the same (.296, .295, .287). Looper’s BB/9 has hung around 2.3 with Lowe’s the same except for the outlier of 2008 (1.92).

I think that BB/9 is unsustainable moving from NLWest to the AL East. In the categories that count the most (keeping men off base) I think Looper and Lowe are interchangeable

I don’t know why I dropped the ERA+ in there. Just a reflex I guess. It does have the advantage of being park adjusted, so I have that. But ERA plus is just a scaled reflection of ERA, with most the vagaries of luck packed still packed in.

Lowe’s ERA+ the last 4 years: 90 (in Boston), 114, 124, 118, 131. I see a guy moving to the NL, then having a great year. No savior there.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Dec 2, 2008 6:33 AM EST up reply actions

OK

I see why you think getting him is buying high.

But I don’t see Looper being a $10MM good investment.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Dec 2, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions

Looper will get eaten alive in the AL East

If we’re bypassing Lowe, I’d rather give the innings to Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves, et al. There’s no sense in wasting money and innings on a mediocre, unspectacular talent like Braden Looper when we have in-house options who are far cheaper and actually have some potential to be better.

by 3460kuri on Dec 2, 2008 10:51 AM EST reply actions

If we're looking for flyers...

…how about a one-year deal for Jamie Moyer? He wasn’t offered arbitration, and he won’t be demanding a multi-year deal. If we have a hole to fill and we don’t want to commit to questionable stars for 5+ years, why not get a durable veteran?

"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden

by SenorSwanky on Dec 2, 2008 11:25 AM EST reply actions