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The 2009 Yankees Center Field Situation

Last year, the New York Yankees had a very difficult time putting together a satisfactory CF onto the field. With faltering performances from Melky Cabrera and the inability for Brett Gardner to come up big, center field became a big issue. According to OPD, the Yankees center field was worse by 16.1 runs compared to the average American League center fielder. To help alleviate the lack of a quality center fielder, there has been fan speculation on players such as Mike Cameron or trading Cano for Matt Kemp. I believe that these are not the best options. There is someone far more underrated and talented enough to hold the position -- Ryan Langerhans.

Star-divide

Here is how the Yankees currently project using CHONEs 2009 Defensive Projections and MINER Batting Projections (regressed to 600 PA)

 

Player Pos PA BRAR RS WAR
Jorge Posada C 600 21.96 -9 1.3
Juan Miranda 1B 600 1.24 0 0.12
Robinson Cano 2B 600 16.42 0 1.64
Alex Rodriguez 3B 600 41.14 -2 3.91
Derek Jeter SS 600 23.45 -13 1.05
Johnny Damon LF 600 12.71 6 1.87
Brett Gardner CF 600 -3.04 5 0.2
Xavier Nady RF 600 11.56 -5 0.66
Hideki Matsui DH 600 10.22 0 1.02
Starters Total
5400 135.66 -18 11.8
Bench Total
1004 0 0 0
Team Total 117.66
135.66 -18 11.8

 

With this line up, CHONEs isn't very happy. -18 runs projected for runs saved (which isn't that bad, considering they were roughly -56 runs last year) and only 135.66 Batting Runs Above Replacement. This team might crack 60 wins with replacement level pitching, but that is no good. The offense is not good enough overall, however. This lineup looks solid for 750 runs -- less than the 789 the Yankees scored in 2008. Essentially, not good enough with the bat and we still have defensive issues.

The best way to improve our lineup is, surprisingly, through defensive improvements. Cost effective measures will allow money to go to free agents such as Sabathia. To improve the lineup, we don't need gigantic free agents such as Teixeira or Manny Ramirez (although, they could be helpful). We need cheap high bang-for-your-buck role players. We need people such as Ryan Langerhans.

Listed below are a few options for a Yankees CF using using CHONEs 2009 Defensive Projections and MINER Batting Projections (regressed to 600 PA)

2009 Yankees CF Options






Player AVG OBA SLG BR(600 PA) FRAA (RF) FRAA(CF) Total(CF)
Mike Cameron .257 .347 .477 87.26 9 3 90.26
Johnny Damon .277 .347 .427 78.97 6 -2 76.97
Ryan Langerhans .228 .331 .361 64.97 14 9 73.97
Brett Gardner .249 .332 .328 60.93 11 5 65.93
Gabe Kapler .276 .331 .436 75.76 -2 -12 63.76
Melky Cabrera .263 .319 .376 62.47 5 -3 59.47

From this list, the best choice is obviously Mike Cameron. He's better than the 2nd best option listed, Johnny Damon, by a factor of 1.3 wins. Unfortunately, Cameron's option was picked up and therefore a trade would be required.

The second best option for center is Johnny Damon. The problem here is that Johnny Damon has been a very good left fielder for us and Matsui can no longer take the field. Damon fits very well in left field for the Yankees. He'll give us a strong bat and an above average glove. I wouldn't be opposed to trading Damon while has value is high if the right deal came along, however.

The third in the list is a name that I haven't heard Yankee fans talk about. Ryan Langerhans is a 28-year-old outfielder who came up with the Atlanta Braves. In 2004, he was considered the Braves best defensive outfielder and the 48th best hitting prospect in the National League. After six seasons in the major leagues, he has a .713 career OPS and an 86 OPS+. Last year, Langerhans had a 104 OPS+ in 111 ABs. CAIRO says he'll hit .228/.331/.361 while 2009 MARCELS says .238/.346/.385. Either way, he'll be a satisfactory center fielder with a very good glove. Langerhans will not command a large amount of money, nor will he command draft picks.

Suppose we strictly sign Langerhans and toss Gardner and Melky out of the equation.

Player Pos PA BRAR RS WAR
Jorge Posada C 600 21.96 -9 1.3
Juan Miranda 1B 600 2 -3 -0.1
Robinson Cano 2B 600 16.42 0 1.64
Alex Rodriguez 3B 600 41.14 -2 3.91
Derek Jeter SS 600 23.45 -13 1.05
Johnny Damon LF 600 12.71 6 1.87
Ryan Langerhans CF 600 4.4 9 1.34
Xavier Nady RF 600 13 -5 0.8
Hideki Matsui DH 600 10.22 0 1.02
Starters Total
5400 145.3 -17 12.8
Bench Total
1004 0 0 0
Team Total

145.3 -17 12.8

Langerhans adds an extra win. All he costs is a small amount of money. This, however, isn't the best scanario. Consider the following.

Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera are both currently with the Yankees. If one of them could rebound, it would be great moving forward. CHONEs isn't optimistic on Cabrera's defense in center but it is entirely possible that Melky can bring back solid defense, as well. Gardner is also known for his defensive prowess. Even if they don't get their bats back, signing Langerhans and playing one of them in center options up two interesting options.

Player Pos PA BRAR RS WAR
Jorge Posada C 600 21.96 -9 1.3
Xavier Nady 1B 600 11 4 1.5
Robinson Cano 2B 600 16.42 0 1.64
Alex Rodriguez 3B 600 41.14 -2 3.91
Derek Jeter SS 600 23.45 -13 1.05
Johnny Damon LF 600 12.71 6 1.87
Brett Gardner CF 600 -3.04 5 0.2
Ryan Langerhans RF 600 0.5 14 1.45
Hideki Matsui DH 600 10.22 0 1.02
Starters Total
5400 134.4 5 13.9
Bench Total
1004 0 0 0
Team Total
134.4 5 13.9

This lineup is 2.1 wins better than the previous one. Offensively, it's not much better. Defensively, however, we've improved by 23 runs. This lineup has filled the first base gap, which means we do not have to place a replacement level Juan Miranda into the batting order every day. Ryan Langerhans, by himself, has added 24 runs to the team. That's more than any of the starters in this lineup, bar Alex Rodriguez, contributes to the team. All of this from a man who won't command much money at all.

 

In summation, I'm not advocating signing Langerhans, but merely giving you some food for thought (in fact, I don't want to have both Langerhans and Brett Gardner in the same outfield unless the Yankees sign a big bat for DH or 1B). Langerhans playing right field and moving Nady has some interesting implications. For example, you can now sign Mark Teixeira and then trade Xavier Nady. One could trade for Mike Cameron and play with a Damon, Langerhans, Cameron OF. One could use the money which would have gone to fixing the hole at first base and spend it on a better DH. The Yankees could sign Adam Dunn and have a Dunn, Damon, Langerhans OF. The Holliday trade could be made and we could have a Holliday, Damon, Langerhans outfield with Adam Dunn/Pat the Bat as the DH.  There are so many new options which are opened by signing Langerhans. His flexibility in the OF and defensive prowess make him a very underrated player for the Yankees. Just remember -- when you think outside of the box, many new and interesting ideas can be put into play.

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Ryan Langerhans

He’s a worse option than Gardner/Melky.

Also, you forgot that speed counts. Gardner should be our CF next year.

by schmosterballs92 on Nov 9, 2008 7:53 PM EST reply actions  

Speed does count but...

Defensively and offensively, Langerhans is projected to be much better. Gardner loses almost all of his value if he is placed in a corner OF position, while Langerhans can still provide decent production. If Gardner was given 600 ABs in the minor league, he’d steal 63 bags and get caught 12-13 times.That’s roughly a net gain of 6.5368 runs. Langerhans is still better in CF and far better in RF.

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 9, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I can't seem to find an edit command for comments but...

I just remembered that Batting Runs factors stolen bases in already. That’s Gardner value with stolen bases already accounted for, sorry.

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 9, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Good Stuff

My CF solution would be to trade some excess crap for Mike Cameron, after that maybe a Damon for Swisher swap would be interesting.

by Omar Little on Nov 10, 2008 2:02 AM EST reply actions  

Damon for Swisher WOULD be interesting

Swisher is projected to outhit Damon, barely, by CAIRO. Damon, however, has 1 run over Swisher defensively. It’s basically an equal trade in terms of talent. Given the contract status and everything, I’d do it.

I’m not sure if we’d be able to get Mike Cameron for excess crap, though. I would love to have a Swisher, Cameron, Langerhans outfield, however. Above average defensively and roughly 2.5 wins better than the Damon, Gardner, Langerhans outfield.

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 10, 2008 2:32 AM EST up reply actions  

why give up on damon?

I realize the cost effectiveness of trading him for swisher but johnny is a gamer who I think actually cares about winning and should be kept through 09. I think we can get swisher and keep damon for lf,cf.

by kdog on Nov 10, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Swisher is younger and has a higher ceiling

Defensively, they’re roughly the same, CHONE believes.
Offensively, they’re near the same, CAIRO believes.

Swisher is younger, cheaper, and may be far better than his 2008 numbers indicate. If he can rebound, he’ll be the much better player. A Damon, Swisher, Langerhans OF is another very good option, though, I will admit.

by SanjiWatsuki on Nov 10, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

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