Worst Case Scenario
by jscape2000
on Nov 22, 2008 4:42 PM EST
in Analysis
Via MLBTR, Phil Rogers speculates that failing to sign any of CC, AJ, or Lowe could bring chaos to the Bronx. It's a panicky sentiment I've seen brought up on several different blog.
While that's easy way to view things, I don't think this "worst case scenario" is really the worst thing that could happen.
The Yankees received just under 900IP from the starters this season.
We lock Joba and Wang into the rotation. They contributed 200 innings in 2008, and ideally Wang will be back to 200 IP in 2009, while Joba pushes toward 150IP.
Bringing Pettitte back becomes a priority. He topped 200 innings for the 4 straight season while dealing with a sore elbow. So pencil him in for 30 starts and 180 IP.
So our horses have us to 530 of 900 IP.
Then there are the second (or third?) tier of pitchers in this free agent class.
Jon Garland had a terrible year and posted a 1.51 WHIP. But he pitched 196.2 innings with only 59 walks.
Braden Looper had his best season yet, using his sinker to record 199 innings, 45 walks and a 1.31 WHIP.
Ben Sheets is the big gamble- ace stuff, but this is the first time in the last four seasons he's made more than 25 starts.
And the money the Yanks save on CC should go toward bringing Tex to the Bronx. He'll be overpaid, but I'd rather have Teixeira on the team for 9 years than have Manny here for four.
Obviously, the Canyon of Heroes moves farther away if this happens, but it doesn't make a playoff run or a title impossible.
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It seems like CC’s preference for NL and west coast is more so than taking 140M contract. If NYY cannot get CC, then it will be best interest to bring back Andy P. for 1 year and sign Derek Lowe and shy away from Burnett and Sheets. Burnett and Sheets can be dominant when they are healthy, but NYY cannot have two Pavanos for 4~5 years each costing at least 15M. Andy P and Lowe, while they are more like 4/5 SP, they eat up innings and can be dependable SP for entire year. It would not be the end of world for NYY even it if fails to sign all three (CC, Burnett, Lowe), but I would go after Lowe when CC finally rejects NYY’s offer. For 2009, NYY’s SP may look like Wang, Lowe, Andy P, Joba, and then a committe of Aceves/Hughes/IPK. It is a formidable core and NYY can spend to bring Tex.
by yankeesintexas on Nov 22, 2008 5:26 PM EST 0 recs
CC is just waiting to test the market
I don’t think the fact that CC hasn’t signed yet has as much to do with a preference for the NL so much as it has to do with logistics and negotiating tactics.
The winter meetings are a few weeks away and CC and his agents will have their best opportunity to shop around at that point. Many people around baseball and within the Yankees organization believe he will wait until then to test the free agency waters before signing somewhere.
It’s doubtful that anyone else will match the Yankees’ offer and not many free agents leave millions on the table. So unless some other team comes pretty close to the Yankees’ current offer – CC will probably sign here.
I agree that if they somehow don’t end up getting CC to sign they should focus their attention on Lowe, but since they have a lot of cash coming off the books from last year they will probably go after Burnett as well.
I have a hard time believing they won’t be able to land at least one of those guys.
Pettitte is probably coming back one way or the other, he’s just on the back burner until the other free agent signings get taken care of.
by losjanks on
Nov 22, 2008 5:54 PM EST
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Lets not panic
We will find pitching out there… and We have Huhges, Kennedy and other kids coming along.
Things are going to be OK.
Things woudl be good if we signed CC and he WANTED to be a Yankee (I am worried about how much he wants to be a yankee).
A rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes and Pettite, would be formidable and have a nice mix of a true ace, veteran experience and youth. Its best case scenario.
My dying words will be 'Go Giants!'"
by wankerboy on Nov 22, 2008 6:36 PM EST 0 recs
We have Hughes and Kennedy
We’re supposed to be happy about that. Girardi recently stated publicly about how Hughes has struggled in the Arizona Fall League and Kennedy isn’t on anybody’s radar. And these other pitchers you mentioned as coming along haven’t even pitched at Double A yet with the exception of Humberto Sanchez.
by ThinkingOutsideTheBox on
Nov 23, 2008 10:29 PM EST
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Phil Rogers
is one of the dumbest sports writer in a field with a lot of dumb sports writer. that has been known for a long time.
by RollingWave on Nov 23, 2008 1:31 AM EST 0 recs
CC hasn't said NO-NO
I’m not worried. As someone astutely pointed out, he’s waiting to test the market. However, with Obama in office, all free agents are going to want to sign before 12/31 to avoid a big tax hit. So we know whatever “testing” he’s gonna do, it’s going to conclude before that date.
I also agree that we don’t need to revisit the fiasco called Pavano/Wright ever again. Chasing after Burnett and Sheets has the makings of a bad dream that we’ve all had before, and I’d personally avoid it. But that doesn’t escape the fact that if CC bails and goes somewhere else we could be in trouble.
We could go after second tier guys like Looper who would probably fit in quite nicely. I don’t think Garland is the answer, but if we don’t have anyone of note by 1/1/09 we might not have a choice.
That said, I’m a glass is half full guy, and I just ultimately believe CC is going to look spectacular in pinstripes.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on
Nov 23, 2008 1:11 PM EST
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A few thoughts
We’re supposed to avoid politics here, but since you spouted some nonsense from the right, I’ll have to counter from the left. Obama has no power to raise taxes or roll back tax cuts on his own, and Congress is not going to place that as top priority, especially in an economic recession. Latest word is Obama will likely just let the Bush tax cuts (thank God) expire as planned in 2010, which would fit into his 2-year economic plan. Besides, even if Congress and Obama do roll back the tax cuts and raise the upper bracket or two a few percent each to the rates they paid during Clinton’s economic boom (big whoop-de-do), that would not affect baseball player salaries. Think about it: if Sabathia signs in December or January or February, it won’t make a difference how much taxes he pays. On April 15, 2009, he’ll pay the current rate on his 2008 salary and benefits. Even if Congress raises the rate for his 2009 salary, which he’ll pay on April 15, 2010, he will only pay less taxes if he signs early if the Yankees or whatever team gives him a signing bonus that cashes before December 31, 2008. Otherwise, he won’t get a penny until next year.
Now, back to baseball. If the Yanks don’t land Sabathia, Lowe, or Burnett (and it’d be a godsend if they don’t sign the latter), we’ll be fine. We won 89 games in 2008 with a patch-up rotation. We already will have Wang, Joba, and Pettitte. We simply need two more starters. I bet one will come from a trade (for Peavy or someone else not even on the trading radar until Cashman flashes Kennedy or Cano or both) and the other either from a two- or three-year deal for Brad Penny, Braden Looper, Paul Byrd, or Jon Garland or from a rotating bunch of Aceves or Giese or whoever proves himself in spring training. We’ll make it. We would ideally like a staff of aces, but we’ve gotten to the postseason every year from 1995 til this past season without one. We just need reliability.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on
Nov 23, 2008 10:13 PM EST
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Left wing and a prayer ...
He could, and will raise the tax bracket, and it certainly will affect contracts that are signed in 2009. To you and I, it’s probably not a big deal, but a couple of percentage points on $25m per is big money.
Now, back to baseball. If we whiff on CC, Burnett and Lowe, we wouldn’t be fine. We’ve already lost 200 innings because of Mussina’s retirement, and Pettitte showed he was pretty creaky last season. Is Joba going to throw 200+ next season? I don’t think there’s any chance of that happening. So you’re espousing pasting together a rotation—or worse yet “rotating” the spare parts? Didn’t we do that each of the last two seasons?
And Brad Penny? Are you kidding me? He’s thrown 200 innings exactly twice. Last season had a robust 6.27 era with an whip that likely outweighs Rosie O’Donnell at 1.62.
The only nonsense being spouted is coming from you, my friend.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on
Nov 24, 2008 9:28 AM EST
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Actually...
…the less money you make, the more a raise in the tax rate affects you. That’s why we have a progressive income tax system, and that’s why the sales tax, gas tax, and any other flat taxes are regressive. So if you raise the upper tax bracket 2, it’s more real dollars than raising it on the lower brackets, but it’s a drop in the bucket comparatively because there’s still so much more money left over. If you raise the rate 2 on those making a solid middle-class income, say $80,000, that’s $1,600—a huge difference in quality of life. If you raise it 2% on those making $25,000,000, that’s half a mil—a lot of money, but the dude’s still going to have at least $15,000,000 left over. Then you’ve gotta consider all the deductions we have for the rich that the less well off don’t even qualify for (or that they don’t have access to the accountants to scour the tax code and fudge the books for them). As Warren Buffett said, it’s a travesty that his secretary pays a higher rate on her taxes than his billions in investment income.
Now, again, back to baseball. If we don’t get the three big FAs we’re reportedly targeting, we’ll have no choice but to patch together a rotation unless we want to sacrifice huge talent or be forced to sign questionable talent to multi-year deals. With any of the FAs I listed, we’re basically looking at a .500 W-L record with a 4+ ERA and a 1.3+ WHIP. Not great. That’s already what we’re likely to get from Pettitte. So, yeah, not getting CC or Lowe or both will hurt us, but what is a better option than using farmhands for one spot in the rotation? We’ll have to either trade or sign a FA for one spot if we fail to get all three of our targets. But it would be foolish to sign two FAs, especially if they’re Type A or Bs and we lose draft picks, if we aren’t thrilled about paying them multi-millions for several years. And it’d be even worse to trade for two pitchers. It’s not wise to sacrifice future flexibility (in terms of finances, prospects, or rotation spots) just to shoot for the moon this year. Plus, we’re going to have to keep developing Hughes and others because this could be Pettitte’s last year.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on
Nov 24, 2008 12:27 PM EST
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A FA I had forgotten about
Ben Sheets.
http://riveraveblues.com/2008/11/the-free-agent-starter-debate-sheets-vs-burnett-6041/
I’d definitely prefer Sheets over Burnett. Someone in the comments made the point that Sheets is repped by the same NYC-based agent as Jeter, and another snickered at how mad Doug Melvin would be if we landed both of his star pitchers.
"If you lived in my grandfather's house...and you wanted to eat, you had to be a Yankees fan." --Joe Biden
by SenorSwanky on Nov 24, 2008 1:10 PM EST 0 recs
Sheets ...
If we were to land Sheets, I think we’d be revisiting part B of the Pavano-Wright years. Wright could never get healthy, and Sheets is the same way. Keep in mind, Sheets has been hurt much of his career. He’s older now, and injuries tend to come more frequently as one ages. I would stay far, far away from Sheets.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on
Nov 24, 2008 2:38 PM EST
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