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Free Agents / Teixiera

I have some thoughts about Teixiera.  Pete A doesn't think the Yanks are really going to go after him.  I agree with his analysis on the economics. 

But:

1. What if Boston makes a real play for Teixiera?
2. Even if we sign CC and another FA pitcher, how do we make the playoffs when we have lost the production of Abreu and Giambi?  (nearly 200 runs created between them)

Star-divide

First, If Cash doesn't make an effort to sign Tex and the Sox nab him - and they subsequently club us into submission in '09 - wouldn't that be tantamount to suicide?

Second, If we want to make the playoffs next year we have to leapfrog either Boston or Tampa Bay; that's doable, but not necessarily easy.  Why throw $20+M per at CC and hope that your hitters will put up enough runs to jump the Sawks and/or the Rays?  That doesn't make sense to me.  If they are going to go the free agent route, why not commit to the strategy and get the best position player on the market (who, by the way, plays a position where we have been weak defensively for the last few years - and plays it well).

Otherwise, why throw any money at CC at all?  Clearly we are not on a 5 year plan.  If we were, then why not wait to see if Joba and Hughes develop into the starters we think they can be and avoid sacrificing draft picks by signing big free agents?  If we drop in the standings, all the better, we will get higher draft picks and be able to build a farm system capable of producing some real talent in the position player department (a la Stick's work in the early 90's).  As it stands, we don't have any real hitters/position players in the pipeline.  Yes, Ajax is highly touted.  But he's at the top of a short list of position players with a high ceiling and he's not ready for the majors yet.  On top of that we have no idea if he will ever be as good as Tex - who is clearly the best position player on the market - let alone how good he will be when he first makes it to the show. 

The Bronx unloaded a TON of payroll (perhaps as much as $80M, with almost $40M between Giambi and Abreu alone, according to USA Today) but the offensive production of those two players hasn't been replaced (Swisher ain't bad, can you honestly make the argument that he replaces both Abreu and Giambi?).  So even if our starting rotation gets better assuming we get CC and for the sake of argument, Lowe - our lineup as it stands today is weaker than last year's - wouldn't the Yanks just be treading water?  Do you think that's good enough to jump either the Sox or the Rays in the standings?

Hopefully we will get better production out of Jorge (if he's healthy enough to catch all year) and Cano - but those are still big question marks to my eyes.

It's not like Cash couldn't make room for Tex.  Moving either Nady or Damon could be possible (preferably Damon, though the Yanks would probably have to eat some of his contract if they could find a trading partner - and I'm not sure whether he has a no-trade in is contract).  If he could pull that off, there would re room for Swisher in one of the corner OF positions.  Cashman's own words seem to suggest he would be OK with starting Swisher at a corner position, "He’s a guy who can give us plus defense at the corners".

I would love to see left to right: Nady, Gardner/Melky/Ajax, Swisher in the outfield with Arod, Jeter, Cano and Tex left to right in the infield and Jorge catching.  DH Matsui or Damon (if you can't get rid of him) and rest Jorge once a week.  Bat them however you like.

I could see why Cashman would want to give the impression that he's not in the running for Tex (he can be Greenspanian in his vagueness).  But I don't see them making the playoffs next year if they don't sign Tex (as well as signing CC and another starter who can fit into the 3rd slot in the rotation).  The thing is that they have a lot of money to spend and a decent amount of ground to cover in order to bridge the gap between them and Boston and Tampa.

I acknowledge that they will go after FA pitchers aggressively because they have the money and want to stock up so that they are not depending on the young arms like they were last year.  I also am aware that Boras wants 10 years for Teixiera and that's likely out of the range of the plausible for the Yanks, but given the current state of the economy, isn't that a bit unrealistic for just about any team?  If the Yanks can't afford him, who can?  Plus we got Boras to come down on his demand for 7 years with Damon a few years ago - maybe we could nab Tex with an offer of 6 years / $20M per.

The only limitation that I'm aware of is that Cashman said they wouldn't spend more than they did last year (approx. $382M on long term free agent signings).  So we are almost halfway there already with our offer to Sabathia, and there is only so much room in there.  But I don't see the door as totally shut to Tex, unless you think Lowe or Burnett can command the kind of salary that CC can.

I realize that I might be splitting hairs here, "Is the door totally shut?" vs. "Is the door open just a crack?"  Last year was pretty good evidence that pitching is more important than hitting, but I don't see Swisher as enough of an addition to keep them at the level they will need to be at in order to compete in the AL East even if we get CC.

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Teixeira

I think Yankee fans are going to have to accept that the front office has essentially turned the page on Teixeira with acquisition of Swisher.

In fact, I’d argue that the front office was never as interested in Teixeira as the fans were. And they didn’t trade for Swisher to put him in the outfield – they traded for him to be their first baseman.

We shouldn’t worry too much about replacing the offense vacated by Abreu and Giambi. Replacing those guys with much better defenders is just as important.

If the championship years taught us anything, it’s that pitching still wins rings – not outslugging your opponents – which is why they haven’t been back to the World Series since 2003.

Also, the Yankees do not have an unlimited payroll as many fans believe. Cashman has been saying for the last few years that he wants to cut payroll and I would suspect that it will be roughly 10% lower next season.

And for the record, Teixeira will never get 10 years from anyone. His deal will be much closer to 5-6 years with an option.

by anaconda on Nov 17, 2008 5:32 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

disagree

I think it’s
A. a backup plan in case they miss
B. a ploy to both make ppl think we’re not going and to give us some leverage against Boras.

Because even in a optimistic assumption, Swisher is nowhere near Teix, and more importantly we realistically need a OF as well, which Swisher will fill better than almost any FA options out there.

Yes, pitching is important (or rather, preventing runs in general) but if preventing runs is 75% pitching, then there’s still a 25% in fielding, where the Yankees have been getting a E or F for the last few years. and a overemphisis on pitching is pointless, the Rays had better pitching than the Phillies, the Tigers were better than the Cards, the Astros were clearly better pitching wise than the White Sox, so 3 out of the last 4 year, the better pitching team LOST the world series.. and in 2 cases it wasn’t even that close.

The Yanks money isn’t as much as it seems since. a few of their back loaded contract is going to shoot up while some guys are also in for arbitration, still though, they should be able to sign both Teix and CC, if they need to make a sacrifice on money then either try and skip a bit on the back rotation or try and dump Matsui or even Damon.

1 great player is always more valuable than 2 good-decent onces, espically if we’re talking about both long term and short term here.

by RollingWave on Nov 17, 2008 10:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Re:

But the reason the Rays went from worst to first is primarily because of their starting pitching and defense.

It does not matter that the Rays lost the World Series – they still got there – which is more than I can say about the Yanks since 2003, which was the last time they had strong starting pitching. The series itself is often a crapshoot – as the Yanks found out against the D-Backs and Marlins.

And they will NOT sign both Sabathia and Teixeira. Cashman has already made that very clear when he said that scenario is “crazy talk.” I have no idea why people don’t believe him.

NY Post:

The raging speculation has been that the Yankees will sign CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and another high-end free agent or two such as Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett. General manager Brian Cashman termed that conjecture “crazy talk.”

In fact, in an exclusive interview with The Post, Cashman strongly indicated the Yankees will not even sign Sabathia and Teixeira in tandem.

“At the pricetags I have read, that is fantasy land, not reality land,” Cashman said yesterday of bringing in Sabathia and Teixeira. A Yankees executive said the club has not even created scenarios for assembling a 2009 roster in which it signs the most attractive starter and position player in the free-agent market.

The plan is to concentrate on starting pitching, namely Sabathia, and – at best – Teixeira is a backburner issue in case all the rotation avenues prove fruitless. Teixeira was pushed further to the backburner yesterday when the Yanks obtained Nick Swisher, who, as of now, projects to be the starting first baseman.

by anaconda on Nov 18, 2008 1:54 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Reason

that people might choose to not believe Cashman, is because it is in his best interest to make everybody believe that they aren’t that interested in Teixeira. It doesn’t hurt him if he really doesn’t want Teixeira, and it aids to his leverage in negotiations with Boras. I personally don’t know what to believe. I think that Cashman is perfectly capable of talking down the possibility as a front, though.
  My personal hope is that the Yankees are able to get Sabathia, bring back both Mussina and Pettitte, and use some of the saved money to get Teixeira. Mussina and Pettitte would require far less commitment, in annual salary, as well as years, than Burnett and Lowe, and would make the financial side of signing Teixeira much more plausible. I would also like to trade for a SS, and make Jeter our CF for this season. But nobody asked me. (And I don’t want to hear about how pissed Jeter would be. He would get over it. And if he didn’t, then shame on him.)

by rory_sayer on Nov 18, 2008 4:56 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cashman

There’s a big difference between not telling the media what he doesn’t want them to know and flat out lying. Like any GM, he’s never one to be open about all of their internal plans or decisions – but he doesn’t lie to them, either.

If Cashman really believed there was a chance he’d sign both players, he’d give a generic answer and tell the media that he’s not ruling anything out or something like that. He’s not going to tell the media that there’s no chance he’s going to do something when internally they believe something different.

That’s not how Cashman works the media. He’s not Hank – a guy who doesn’t have any flipping idea what he’s talking about.

So I believe Cashman when he says they absolutely will not sign both Sabathia and Teixeira. Plus, as has been mentioned a few times already, the Swisher trade is a pretty good indication that he’s telling the truth because they didn’t trade for him to play the outfield.

Pete Abe echoed those same thoughts the other day after the Cashman press conference:

Swisher is not here to play CF. Cashman made that clear. He’s here to play 1B. Cashman did not close the door to anything else happening (he never does), but it’s pretty evident that they see Swisher playing 1B and having the ability to play LF or RF on occasion.

I guess you and other Yankee fans are going to be very disappointed when Teixeira signs elsewhere – probably back with the Angels if I had to bet on it.

However, I agree with you on Moose and Pettitte. I’d prefer to see both return (although I’m not holding my breath) than to throw money at either Burnett or Lowe.

I think both would be terrible disappointments in pinstripes because Burnett is overrated and has a long history of health issues whereas Lowe is best suited to pitch in the NL. It’s also worth noting that Burnett has pitched 200 IP+ just three times in his nine-year career and did it twice in contract years.

He seems like a guy who pitches his best only when he’s motivated to do so. That’s not the kind of pitcher the Yanks need.

by anaconda on Nov 18, 2008 6:12 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

a few thing

a. the series is a crap shoot, that is right, just like the rest of the playoff, so the logic of success is actually making the playoff with a really good team and cross your finger. in which the Yankees did fine, even this year, the only real reason they miss was because they were in the ALE, they were clearly a better team than 3 of the playoff teams (Dodger / White Sox / Brewers) dispite all it’s flaws.

b.Cashman’s generally a ambigious guy in interviews regarding his moves, just look back to all his other interviews in the off seasons and trade deadlines, he just talk ambigious coded talk that the media interperts whatever way they want. he gave really no indication that he would trade for Swisher … or Sign Johnny Damon… or what he would or would not do for Johan Santana, everyone was caught by surprise by the Clemens signing, Pudge trade… etc… while his general methodology seems almost completely inline with what the mainstream stats blogs suggest and often exceed expectation in terms of his ability to get certain things with the value he gave up.(RLYW, Baseball musings.. fangraphs.. etc..)

from what i heard in his interview, he basically said that he feels “the price is crazy”(which applies to both CC and Teix) and “IF the season starts today Nick Swisher would be our 1B” neither of statement really add up to them not signing both guys. it’s just more of a media speculation than reality.

Obviously, wether we land both depends on more than just our own willingness to spend, but from what I’m hearing nothing seem to truely suggest that the Yanks won’t make a play at both. and logically they should, they’re better off getting both and then try to salary dump Damon or Matsui or try and bargin hunt on the back end players, then signing one or two more 10-14M ish FA pitcher who’ll likely be pretty old and/or injury prone and/or isn’t all that great.

by RollingWave on Nov 18, 2008 5:05 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

See above post

It applies to you as well.

And they will make a play for Teixeira. It just won’t be a serious one because they want someone else to pay as much as possible for him.

But I guarantee you that they will not sign Teixeira, especially if they do indeed land Sabathia.

by anaconda on Nov 18, 2008 6:16 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we shall see

I’d say the odds are mixed on where he ends up, because he is someone that you’d like to build a team around, so there’s a reasonable chance that some unexpected team makes a huge play for him. (then again, the recent economy decrease this chance).

The Angels is a interesting case, in reality they didn’t actually need Teix to make the playoff this year (they won by over 20 freaking game, you can replace Teix with Richie Sexson for the entire season and that won’t be 20 games), they’re entire division was horrific, and that’s unlikely to change for the forseeable future, the M’s are likely to suck horriblly for 3+ years, the Rangers will NEVER find pitching (I mean NEVER) , the A’s are the only semi intriguing team in competition with them. and I doubt Holliday is a 10 win+ player even considering the guys he’s replacing.

So if need really applies, I highly doubt the Angels NEED Teix more than we do to make the playoff

by RollingWave on Nov 18, 2008 7:58 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It matters not what we think these teams need – it matters what the front office of each club thinks they need.

We don’t get a vote.

And both clubs have made it clear which is their #1 respective targets. The Angels want Teixeira back and the Yanks want Sabathia.

Neither team is going to get both.

I understand that the AL West isn’t very good, but the Angels were already running away with the division title and they made the Teixeira deal anyways. The goal is to win the WS, so that’s why they pulled the trigger.

It didn’t work out, but Moreno wants him back and he will probably do whatever it takes to get it done. Hell, Teixiera means even more to them than K-Rod – a guy they are letting go without much of a fight.

by anaconda on Nov 18, 2008 8:45 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The reason

Tampa went from worst to first is a stockpiling of #1 draft picks and some astute, gentle tweaks of their bullpen and rotation.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Nov 18, 2008 3:23 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that ... and

their defense effeciency rating went from worest in just about every year before 07 to best in 08 helps too, even the best pitchers will have a hard time pitching when everything in play falls for hits.

by RollingWave on Nov 18, 2008 11:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tampa knows how to draft unlike the Yankees

and make astute signings and trades i.e. Garza, Pena, Kazmir- and James Shields wasn’t a number one pick. There are plenty of quality pitchers in the majors that weren’t number one picks but they don’t ever seem to land in the Bronx.

And Texeira is a must sign. They blew it with Beltran, letting money get in the way , and this team needs another YOUNG big run producer in the lineup. Look how many players will be 35-plus in this lineup this season. This is a no-brainer.

by ThinkingOutsideTheBox on Nov 20, 2008 10:06 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Come On

I’d much rather spend the money on Pitching. I love Tex, but he’s not Pujols. He’s a lifetime .285 batter and I can’t see making him the highest paid player. Berkman, Morneau, Howard, Pujols. He’s not even close to the best at his position. He hasn’t always been clutch either. I just think everyone is over rating this guy just a little. He was brought in to help the Braves and how did that work out. The Angels had more success without him than with him, and he came up empty in the post season. .

I see things you don't see.

by LouieTheLip on Nov 18, 2008 1:41 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

Teixeira is a fine player – but he is no superstar and wants to be paid like one. It’s not going to happen with the Yanks.

by anaconda on Nov 18, 2008 1:55 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Disagree ...

Teixeira is among the elite first-basemen in either league, and his numbers underscore the fact that he is indeed a superstar in this generation at least. Even with the economic crisis, I don’t think Tex is going to be placing a call to Obama asking for a financial bailout anytime soon.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Nov 18, 2008 3:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Do you consider Kevin Youkilis a superstar?

I ask you that because they’ll produce the same kind of offensive numbers. They are very close defensively as well, but Youkilis is more versatile since he also plays third base.

Look at their numbers because they are very similar: Youkilis Teixiera

Me? I consider both very good players, but not superstars.

by anaconda on Nov 18, 2008 6:37 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

huh?

seriously, that statement just weakened your credietbility greatly if you feel those two are similar players.

the only season in the last 6+ year where they were “similiar” is this year, Mark Teixeira has a career OPS+ of 134, Youk is 119, that’s about the career difference of Teix to A-rod. I’d hardly consider Teix = A-rod. oh and what’s worse. at least Teix is 4 year younger than A-rod, Youk is a year older.

Was Youk a super star this year? YES! . is he over his career? no, too bad that Teix over his career is pretty close to Youk this year… while being a younger player

by RollingWave on Nov 18, 2008 11:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My credibility is just fine

It is you who cannot accept that this team isn’t going to sign Teixeira when all signs indicate as such.

Just remember that the day he signs elsewhere and you’re wondering why the Yanks didn’t make a stronger effort to get him.

by anaconda on Nov 19, 2008 12:40 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

no no no

Look, I don’t care if they will or will not sign him, that’s up to them, I’m simply debating wether they SHOULD sign him. which from a sabremetric point of view is a pretty clear yes.

Your avoiding the question though, you said Youk = Teix = very good but not great player, the first part of which is ridiculas in any other year except this one, in which Kevin Youkilis finished 3rd in the MVP voting, how the hell is that NOT a great player?

So basically your saying that the 3rd place MVP finisher this year was only very good not great… THIS YEAR. that’s a pretty hard logic to follow unless your definition of a great player = only the top 2 MVP finisher.

by RollingWave on Nov 19, 2008 1:19 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess my definition of a “superstar” is quite different from yours. And I’ve already said both players are very good, so I’m not exactly dissing them.

I don’t consider either Youkilis or Teixeira a superstar regardless of how they finished in the MVP voting. They have to be an elite producer over a number of years before they’ve earned that label.

As good as Teixeira is, I think people are overrating him. He’s not the missing piece of the puzzle that many Yankee fans believe, and obviously, the front office believes as well.

They’ll be just fine if they land Sabathia and find another horse to plant into the rotation. The offense is much more of an afterthought as far as I’m concerned.

by anaconda on Nov 19, 2008 2:54 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't see

them as statistically that close. Youkilis doesn’t have Tex power or his ability to drive in runs. On BA and fielding I see similarities, but it’s not yet enough to jettison Youkilis from a very good to superstar player.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Nov 19, 2008 9:55 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agree

Anaconda is probably right in saying that neither Tex nor Youk are truly “Superstars”. But I think Tex is measurably better than Youk.

To the points that Tex is not the missing piece I would say that while pitching has to take a priority over hitting considering our struggles in the starting rotation the last few years, any offense that can be added should be added.

I have no idea what the Yanks real finances are – none of us do (unless someone here works in their finance department).

Economically it would seem that based on their payrolls of the last few years, the success of the YES network and the prospect of raking in dough from the new stadium, I would think that signing Tex could be done.

Maybe it’s the kind of thing where they could do it but don’t think it’s necessary. That’s Cashman’s call to make. If that were the case though – where they could sign him but they let him go elsewhere – I might consider that a mistake.

by losjanks on Nov 19, 2008 12:19 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I contend ...

we don’t need to spend $200m on a first-baseman (unless it’s Albert Pujols). We don’t need to field a team of all-stars. We need to field a team. I think that has been lacking somewhat in recent years. With the addition of Giambi, we got into this “all-star at every position” mentality that I believe eroded the concept of team.

Let’s dump the coin on pitching, and find those “very good” to “good” players like Brosius, Martinez, O’Neill. If we do that, we’ll be hanging banners in the new stadium in short order.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Nov 20, 2008 2:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

louie the lip

Teixeira played quite well in Atlanta. The team around him wasn’t very good though. He was also one of the few Angels to actually hit well in the playoffs, posting a .467 avg in the series against the Red Sox, which is his only career postseason series. Not sure where you got the idea that he came up empty in the postseason. And he is one of the best first basemen in baseball if you look at defense AND offense. He gets on base very well, hits for good power, switch hits, and plays very good defense. There are only a couple first basemen that I would rather have. He’s better than Morneau, on both sides. He’s nearly Berkman’s equal at the plate, and much better with the glove, Howard is a terrible defender. Pujols is the only clearly better player. I would probably also consider Adrian Gonzalez to be above Teixeira, but the list doesn’t go much farther.

by rory_sayer on Nov 18, 2008 5:07 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Adrian

may or may not be better depend on how much credit you give him for hitting in a huge park. at best though, he’s a equal to Teix, your right though, only Pujols is clearly the better player, and I would only consider Berkman and Adrian Gonzalez as maybe equals. that’s pretty good company.

by RollingWave on Nov 18, 2008 5:10 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Texeira Lifetime with RISP only

THREE TWENTY FOUR. Certainly not clutch like Nick Swisher at .221.

by ThinkingOutsideTheBox on Nov 21, 2008 12:15 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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