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2009 Yankees Bullpen Outlook

Last year, the bullpen came up big for the Yankees. Their 3.78 ERA was much better compared to the American League average of 4.13. Mariano Rivera proved himself to be one of the most amazing closers yet again with a WHIP under 0.700. With sub-4 ERA performances from young relievers such as Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, and Brian Bruney along side the reemergence (and sequential failure after being traded) of Kyle Farnsworth, the Yankees quickly turned a 2007 weakness into a 2008 strength. The question is now what is held in store for the bullpen in the upcoming 2009 season.

Star-divide

Listed below is the current bullpen situation for the Yankees.

Player Pos G IP RSAR Contract $ $/WAR
Mariano Rivera CL 66 73 21 15MM $7,142,857
David Robertson SU 54 64 16.5 $400K $242,424
Edwar Ramirez RP 47 55 8 $400K $500,000
Dan Giese RP 45 80 6 $400K $666,667
Chris Britton RP 49 64 5 $400K $800,000
Jose Veras RP 57 59 3 $400K $1,333,333
Brian Bruney RP 46 47 1 $725K+ $7,250,000
Total:
364 442 60.5 $17,725,000 $2,929,752

With 6 cost controlled arms and one of the best closers of all-time in the bullpen, it looks to be a very efficient bullpen. Last year, the bullpen saved 64 runs above replacement and this projection has the bullpen at a similar 60 runs saved. Let's break down each arm individually and look into the possibilities of other arms.

Mariano Rivera (8.27 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 2.66 FIP) [21 RSAR]

What much can be said about Mo? His sheer dominance in 2008 was phenomenal and CAIRO believes he'll have another great year. With impeccable control and an amazing cutter, Rivera will be a solid reliever for the Yankees yet again.

David Robertson (8.91 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 3.68 FIP) [16.5 RSAR]

CAIRO seems overly optimistic on David Robertson, in my opinion, but I do feel that Robertson can be a very quality arm in the bullpen. His FIP+ was 130 and his FIP was 3.43. His career minor league ERA is 1.24 and his career minor league WHIP is 0.93. He has 190 Ks in 138 IP in his two years in the minor league. He was drafted in the 17th round of the 2006 draft. His fastball sits in the low 90s and he shows a plus slider. Overall, Robertson has a lot of potential. Seeing him match his projection wouldn't surprise me.

Edwar Ramirez (9.95 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, 3.68 FIP) [8 RSAR]

Edwar's plus-plus change-up makes his game. His fastball stays in the low 90s but his change is the star of the show. After a lack of progress in the Angels minor league system, Ramirez pitched in Indy Leagues, where he taught himself the change. The Yankees signed him and Edwar has blazed through their minor league system and shown effectiveness in the major league level. His FIP+ last year was 111 and his career K/9 is over 11. His control could be better and he is a bit prone to HRs but this lanky righty with a Bugs Bunny change is one of my personal favorite relievers and he projects to be a very effective reliever out of the bullpen.

Dan Giese (5.78 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 4.16 FIP) [6 RSAR]

Unlike the previous relievers, Giese is not going to overpower anyone. He's already over 30 but he came up big for the Yankees last year. CAIRO believes that he'll remain a solid player and isn't a flash in the plan, ala Aaron Small. In a nutshell, Giese throws strikes. His fastball stays in the low 90s and his hard slider isn't anything special, but he'll get the job done out of the bullpen.

Chris Britton (6.47 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 4.23 FIP) [5 RSAR]

Britton has been bouncing back and forth between the minor leagues and the Yankees for quite some time. When he arrives in New York, they tell him that he has to return to Scranton. Britton has a career 3.83 ERA and struggled with his command last year. Right-handed hitters have struggled against him to a .200/.252/.376 clip but when a left-handed hitter faces Britton they turn into Aramis Ramirez with a .309/.386/.471 line. Either way, Britton shows a nice curveball and a fastball which touches 93 mph.

Jose Veras (7.89 K/9, 3.97 BB/9, 4.49 FIP) [3 RSAR]

In 2005, Jose Veras announced that he signed with the Yankees. Even though he wasn't thought as being a quality pitcher, he announcted "I feel proud that the Yankees have signed me to help set the table for Mariano Rivera." In 2008, his prediction came true and Veras was the Yankees' set-up man. Veras can pitch in the mid-90s and throws a decent slider, but struggles with his command. CAIRO isn't confident that Veras' 2008 performance could be repeated in 2009, but feels that he could be a quality arm out of the bullpen. I'm inclined to agree.

Brian Bruney (7.88 K/9, 5.72 BB/9, 4.92 FIP) [1 RSAR]

After a 7.43 ERA year in 2005 for the Diamondbacks, Bruney was DFA and picked up by the Yankees. In 2006, Bruney posted a 519 ERA+. Bruney, at his best, can touch 100mph but mostly stays in the mid-90s. At the end of the year, Bruney's slider was clocking in at 90mph. The biggest problem with Bruney is his lack of control, as indicated by his projected 5.72 BB/9. After 2006, I bet that Bruney would never make an effective setup man, but in 2008 I had to eat crow. I'm agreeing with FIP again and making that same announcement -- and I hope I'm wrong for a second time.

Mark Melancon (6.67 K/9, 2.62 BB/9, 4.50 FIP) [4.9 RSAR]

Melancon is currently one of the Yankees top prospects. He dropped to the Yankees in 2006 due to an injury. Baseball America has listed him as the 9th best prospect going into 2009. Melancon came off Tommy John Surgury in 2008 and has been a very effective reliever in the minor leagues. Armed with an above-averaged fastball which clocks in at 92-95 and a power curve, Melancon has been labelled as the next Joba. CAIRO appears to believe that Melancon will show up and be an effective RP out of the bullpen. I'm sure he'll see a call-up during the season, but I highly doubt he will be starting the season with the major league team.

Phil Coke (No CAIRO relief numbers)

Phil Coke was simply impressive in 2008. He was a left-handed reliever with a fastball touching 96 mph. He ended the year with a 0.61 ERA and a 7 K:BB ratio. Coke can work as both a starter or a reliever. I wouldn't look too much into his ridiculous '08 numbers because of the small sample size but I wouldn't count Coke out. As a starter, CAIRO set him at 3.2 RSAR.

Humberto Sanchez (No CAIRO relief numbers)

I would have listed Sanchez over Bruney or Veras in the bullpen, but he has been getting killed in Arizona to the tune of a 15.26 ERA. Depending on his Spring Training, though, I could easily see Sanchez breaking into the bullpen. The Yankees may try him out as a starter at first, but I feel Humberto will end up as a reliever in the end.

Damaso Marte (9.46 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, 3.36 FIP) [8.7 RSAR]

Marte's option was declined, but the Yankees are working out a 3 year/12 million deal, I believe. Marte would provide a lefty arm in the bullpen and would almost add an entire win. Marte works with a low 90s fastball and a slider and is simply dominating against lefty hitters. They'll struggle to post an average over .150 against Marte. If he leaves, we should be able to pick up draft picks, thanks to his Type-A status. If he stays, we'll have 7.7 RSAR over Bruney. Win-Win situation.

R.J. Swindle (8.22 K/9, 1.50 BB/9, 2.92 FIP) [11.5 RSAR]

All I can say is GET IT DONE, CASH! My word! I can't believe the Phillies let this man hit free agency as a minor league free agent! He struck out 51 in less than 37 innings and had a K/BB ratio of over 7 in AAA this year. He's left-handed and only 25. He's one of the most dominant unorthodox relievers in the game. Swindle doesn't even touch 85 mph with his fastball and his curveball tops out at less than 65. He baffles hitters with them. His minor league equivalents against lefties say he'll hold them at a .156 average. The statistics love this man. He deserves a shot. The risk is extremely low and the potential gain is amazing. Just look at how much CHONEs loves him. CHONEs loves him as much as Scot Shields and Hideki Okajima. Swindle could be an amazing buy-low free agent.

Overall, it's a very good sign -- the Yankees finally have the pitching depth as to not sign overpriced relievers out of free agency. Even the best RP arms in free agency are simply not worth the money spent on them. With Marte over Bruney and the possibility of Sanchez/Melancon/Coke coming up big, I expect the Yankees bullpen to provide over the 66 RSAR which they posted last year in the bullpen. With Swindle, they could possible be 74 RSAR or better. Their abundance of quality pitchers has given them a big advantage over other teams.

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This is spot on

The best bullpens are young, cheap, and homegrown.

With 12 potentially solid guys, I don’t think our bullpen could be in better shape going into 2009. Yes, you play the game on the field, but there simply isn’t anything more Cashman can do to put the bullpen in a better spot.

Perhaps we can trade from a position of strength on July 31st, like we did this year.

by 3460kuri on Nov 10, 2008 9:06 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Regarding the RAR and $$/WAR numbers

Remember that really good bullpen pitchers have their performances leveraged. Closers tend to pitch in situations that average out to twice as important as performance in random situations. So Rivera’s 20 RAR are as effective as 40 RAR from a starter.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 10, 2008 5:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Re: Melancon

I wouldn’t be nearly as shocked as you if Melancon makes the team out of the gate. Hell, even a nobody like Traber made the team with an impressive showing in ST last season. So did Ohlendorf and Albaladejo.

If Melancon continues to progress, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we see him in the bigs as soon as April or May.

Also, not that it’s any big deal, but I’ve never seen Bruney touch 100 MPH. His max effort is more like 97-98 MPH, which is certainly more than good enough if he continues to pitch like he did in 2008.

I know I’m not the only Yankee fan who thought Bruney far exceeded all expectations last year even though he went down for three months.

With the addition of Melancon at some point and perhaps Sanchez as well, the Yanks’ pen has the potential to be be as good as it was during the dynasty years.

by anaconda on Nov 11, 2008 3:37 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

We have way too many arms getting near being big league ready

Do not be surprised if 2 or 3 of these young arms end up being traded. Of course that will not happen if we are successful in the FA market. I do not think, hiwever, the rest of the teams will let us sign the 2 or 3 big name FA’s we covet. If that’s how it develops, trades become likely.

If I's known I was going to live so long, I'd have taken better care of myself. Casey

by Cbeck3 on Nov 12, 2008 10:37 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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