What's more valuable?
A workhorse pitcher or a feared hitter?
Going by Leverage Index (LI), which measures the contextual impact of every single plate appearance (where PAs in close games count more), starters come out on top (because their LI multiplied by PAs is the highest overall), while position players trail and relievers lapse into third. Common sense tells us this is right. We know that six innings of scoreless pitching is a lot more important than one. Just as a home run in the 9th doesn't count any more than a home run in the 1st.
The most PA a hitter ever gets in a season is in the high 700s. But a pitcher can impact more than 1000 PA. That could be the answer, if all we care about is a position player's offense, and not his defense.
In that case, we can undoubtedly say a DH pales in comparison to a pitcher (or even other hitters for that matter). To find out how many plays in the field are impacted by an individual defender, we take the total at-bats in the league (because the defense has no affect on walks), subtract home runs and strikeouts (for the same reason), then divide by the number of teams (30), and then divide by the number of defenders on a team (9). That gives us about 478 plays per year per player. That's a rough average, which doesn't account for the differences in position (a first baseman affects a lot more plays than a right-fielder), but it's fine because we're talking about an average position player.
Adding that to the number of plate appearances a hitter has will roughly will make him more valuable than a pitcher, but the pitcher plays defense too, though only 35 games at most in a season.
Where does that leave us? Perhaps with the question: is it worth more to affect many games a little, or a few games a lot? I don't know how stats could give us that answer.
Does the fact that a position player (Arod) is the highest paid in the game mean anything relative to this study? (This could perhaps be attributed more to the 'draw factor' of an everyday player (and home runs) and the injury risk pitchers carry. I admittedly haven't accounted for the injury risk with pitchers, but on the other hand, does that make a healthy 'workhorse' pitcher even more valuable?)
I'll leave it up to you, and this poll, despite using a current situation, should reflect the general consensus (they're both great players, both the same age, both free agents, both will require a lot of money, and neither has had a serious injury):
If you could only add one player, would it be Sabathia or Teixeira?
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Solid thinking
And let me be the first to argue that by your logic a starter is always more important than any single hitter. Hitters impact 4-6 ABs per game while starters influence around 30ABs.
A poor performer on the mound (let’s call him Sidney) will influence the game against you much more than a poor hitter will hurt you (let’s call him J. Molina). So replacing Sidney with a CC Sabathia is worth vastly more than replacing a J. Molina with a Teixeira.
And an ace pitcher has a matchup advantage a hitter can never approach. C.C. carried the Brewers into the playoffs by appearing more often than expected, and although he ran out of steam in October, who he faces and when (home or road) can be controlled more finely in a playoff series to maximize his contribution. You run out your lineup and hope it works, but you select your pitching matchup.
Furthermore, an ace can protect your bullpen and your other starters in a more measurable way than a great hitter aids the other hitters. Case in point: Stanton, Nelson and Mendoza were more effective than their successors, not necessarily because they were more talented, but because the Yanks’ deep rotation regularly pitched into the 7th inning- this protected the relievers from overwork and overexposure while keeping them fresh for the days they would be needed in the 5th.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on
Oct 7, 2008 1:23 AM EDT
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Exactly
Sabathia is leaps and bounds more important to the future of the team. And you’re exactly right about starting pitching – the bullpen becomes much better when they aren’t overexposed and asked to carry a very heavy workload.
Joe Torre always said the primary reason this team won four rings is because of their pitching, specifically the rotation and Mo. No other team could match up with that kind of depth and all-world closer.
by anaconda on
Oct 7, 2008 3:17 AM EDT
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leverage index measures the relative importance of an AVERAGE plate appearance
so while the importanc of each of a reliever’s plate appearances might be higher than a starter’s or hitter’s, he doesn’t have enough of them to be of equal value. the easiest way to use LI is to multiply it by PA. for example a closer with 200 plate appearances and a 2.5 LI is on equal footing with a starter (LI = 1) with 500 plate appearances. of course, then you have to consider the quality of those plate appearances (relative to replacement level).
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 7, 2008 4:24 PM EDT
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Pitching trumps hitting everytime
I can’t imagine another position more important or influential than a pitcher. A pitcher dictates the pace of the game. A pitcher generally determines the fate of the game. Guys like Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, Aaron, etc. all profoundly impacted the games in which they played, but even at their best, pitching is more influential in determining the success or failure of a team.
CC is a better choice than Tex hands-down.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on
Oct 7, 2008 4:42 PM EDT
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this is not true and has been demonstrated many times
like this: http://www.detroittigertales.com/2008/09/offense-as-important-as-pitching-for.html
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 7, 2008 7:41 PM EDT
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From what I understand of that article
They’re arguing that a team’s offense is equally important to its pitching.
Ronster is arguing that a starting pitcher is of greater importance than any single hitter.
A good starter will provide around 75% of the game’s pitching, but a good hitter can only contribute 1/9th of the offense.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on
Oct 7, 2008 8:06 PM EDT
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good point
let’s make some assumptions for the hell of it:
starter: 1000 PAs
hitter: 700 PAs
starter: 80% of credit for PAs
hitter: 100% credit for PAs
hitter: 10% extra credit for fielding
starter: 800 adjusted PAs
hitter: 770 adjusted PAs
Now, those assumptions are quite rough. And the biggest point that’s missed is that the difference between a top starter and a replacement starter in terms of quality might be larger or smaller than the difference between a top position player and a bad one.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 8, 2008 10:41 AM EDT
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C.C.
pitched 686.2 innings the last three years. *3= 2060.0 PA
+643H +140BB= 2843 PA/3= 947.2PA each year.
I don’t know what numbers the average replacement starter would put up, but it’s an easy $20 million investment for a team with playoff asperations like the Yanks, even when you consider the injury risk. I don’t like the idea of giving a 1B a long term deal.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on
Oct 8, 2008 11:09 AM EDT
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the other issue is that projecting pitchers into the future requires a lot more regression
they are more likely to have swings in ability and suffer injuries. it’s much smarter to sign position players long term. in general, of course.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 7, 2008 7:42 PM EDT
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how about this quick analysis
Tex and Sabathia both had really good seasons. Sabathia was well above his head during his run with the Brewers, but his first few starts help temper his overall line appropriately. Tex had a better year for him, but not an obvious career year. Justin from On the Reds does a really nice job calculating player values, considering offense, replacement level, position, and fielding for position players, and fielding-independent talent for pitchers. Here’s what his numbers say about the two players this year:
Sabathia: 75 runs prevented
Teixeira: 75 runs created/prevented
If I’m the Yankees, I seriously consider signing both players. I let Abreu and Giambi walk, stick Matsui at DH for his last season and hope Posada can catch. If he can’t (but can still hit) then he can DH and let Matsui play the field. Nady’s in right, Damon’s in left, and they sign/trade for an underrated MLB-caliber outfielder to be in the rotation or start in left if Matsui DHs (short-term contract). Someone like Randy Winn who’s a league-average hitter and plus defender. Or Ryan Church.
This rotation is already really nice, assuming the Yankees actually sign some rotation depth for the guy who inevitably underperforms/gets injured. Sabathia or Burnett (who’s underrated) would just be icing on the cake.
Wang
Joba
Hughes
Moose/Pettitte
IPK/Rasner/the other Moose/Pettitte
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 7, 2008 7:51 PM EDT
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so who did you vote for?
i’d LOVE the Yanks to sign both of them, but i voted Sabathia. dominant southpaws dont grow on tress while good-hitting 1b-man do (a bit more at least).
i see what you mean about pLI. it makes relievers certainly less important than either hitters or starters.
by Travis G on
Oct 7, 2008 9:33 PM EDT
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i think i voted for Tex, because hitters hold their value longer, in general
and his glove is awesome. had he been in one league the whole year he’d be a top five MVP candidate
but i really like CC, too.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 8, 2008 10:43 AM EDT
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Moot point ...
I’d throw money at both—provided it was mine to spend. In Yankeeland money means nothing, so why not make a run at both. My belief all along has been that they would. In fact, I’d be disappointed if they didn’t. Given CC’s love for his home (California), and the fact that he wants to hit, I have my doubts that he would sign to play for the Yankees. I see him as a West Coast guy. I’m also concerned over the amount of stress he induced this season. Given his size, I suspect he will break down—sooner than later.
Tex on the other hand grew up on the East Coast cheering for the Os and trying to play first base like his idol, Don Mattingly. Going to the Os might be considered, but if Tex is really interested in winning, he’d be foolish to walk away from the Brink’s truck the Yankees will park in front of his home.
I’ve spoken with two scouts over the last several weeks who believe the Yankees will end up signing Tex—not CC who one believes is headed for the Dodgers.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on
Oct 8, 2008 2:26 PM EDT
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and CC
would’ve been the clear Cy Young favorite if there was one award for both leagues.
by Travis G on
Oct 8, 2008 5:29 PM EDT
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CC'd be in the mix with Lee and Halladay, sure
i just think Teixeira is underrated as “just another big bat at first base”. one, he’s been a big bat for mutiple years and isn’t a one-year wonder. two, he’s a REALLY big bat, with .400 OBP skills. three, he’s a stud fielder, which vaults him past every other first baseman not named Pujols or Berkman.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 8, 2008 5:44 PM EDT
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