Thinking About the 2009 Payroll

by jscape2000 on Oct 4, 2008 4:11 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 19 comments

Buster Olney recently reported that he'd heard the Yanks' ideal 2009 payroll would drop $30 million to $180 after finishing 2008 at $209. That's the first hard figure I've heard, so let's take a look at how much flexibility Brian Cashman will really have.

Player	Salary	Total
Arod	32	32
Jeter	20	50
Rivera	15	65
Posada	13.1	78.1
Damon	13	91.1
Matsui	13	104.1
Cano	6	110
Wang	(6)	116
Nady	(5)	121
Molina	2	123
Betemit	(2)	125
Bruney	(1)	126
Melky	(1)	127
Hughes	(.5)
Chamberlain	(.5)	128
IPK	(.5)
Albaledejo	(.5)	129
Gardner	(.5)
Veras	(.5)	130
Coke	(.5)
Robertson	(.5)	131
Miranda	(.5)
Ransom	(.5)	132
Aceves	(.5)
Britton	(.5)	133

Now, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that not all of these players will be on the roster.

I love the interchangeable relievers (Veras, Robertson, Albaledejo, Britton, Bruney, Edwar, Giese + Melancon, Cox, and Sanchez).

With CMWang the only lock for the rotation, I'm betting we see Joba, Hughes, IPK, Aceves, Horne, Coke, or someone else filling 3 of the 4 remaining spots in the rotation. As much as I'd love to sign 2 FA pitchers (preferably Garland and Sabathia), I don't see it happening. Could we get Garland (who has pitched 190+ innings for 7 consecutive seasons, and doesn't turn 30 until next September) for 4 years/ $40 million? That would bring payroll to about 140. I would bring Pettitte back at a similar number (one year) or not at all; he got his $16 million payday out of respect, but that was before his name showed up in the Mitchell report and he faded down the stretch.

I've already said no to Tex, and Giambi is likely to get a two-year deal, so I'm not sure what better option is out there. I want to keep that position open long-term for some combination of Arod, Jeter, Posada, so maybe it's time for Johnny Damon to find that mitt, or Matsui to put his money where his mouth is. I don't want to solve the centerfield issue with a Melky/Gardner Spring Training showdown, but the thought of Rocco Baldelli makes me cringe, and a trade for DeJesus or McLouth doesn't really excite me either.

So, the Yanks have about 50 million dollars to spend, and I expect them to target 30 million of it on the rotation. But if the Yanks don't get either Sabathia or Teixeira, I could see them starting 2009 with a budget as low as 155; that's still top of the league, but within a free agent of the Red Sox, Tigers, Mets and Angels.

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Weak 2009 Free Agent Class

If you look at 2009 unrestricted free agent list, this is a weak, weak class all across the border. For SP, I don’t see any frontline pitchers other than Sabathia and Burnett. And I would not call John Garland a frontline SP as his career ERA is well above 4.00. One thing that scares me about Sabathia is if he will hold up next year after logging all these innings this year. But, if LAA Angels lose to BoSox, I assume they will go hard after him. If we can’t get Sabathia, I would not go after any remaining SPs and bet on Hughes, Aceves or IPK to emerge. In this case, it will be Wang, Joba, Hughes, Aceves/IPK and either Andy or Mike assuming we bring one of them back. I think relief piching will be fine next year with the current mix.
NYY’s infield is almost set as Jeter, ARod, Cano will be back. As for 1B, they need to go after Tex as there is no other option. The only alternative would be Jorge if he cannot be effective defensively next year. As for OF, I would be reluctant to give CF to either Melky or Gardner. Baldellie might be a viable option but his health is a concern. Assuming NYY retains Nady, it will be interesting to see how they replace Abreu although they might bring him back. If they cannot get Sabathia and Tex, I believe they will make couple major trades to fill up the holes.

by yankeesintexas on Oct 4, 2008 10:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But who could they trade?

Giving up on Hughes is selling low and leaves us with another hole in the rotation.
They could move a reliever or two, but they won’t be worth much.
The only plausible move is trade Cano and sign Orlando Hudson, but that’s a gamble that he’ll be healthy.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 5, 2008 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

whats wrong with rocco baldelli wasnt he really highly regarded at one time?

by geno227 on Oct 4, 2008 11:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Baldelli

Baldelli has had several injuries (knees, hamstring, … etc.) last couple years. He’s only 27, so he will be worth taking some risk. I am not sure why Melky regressed so much this year, but hope he can rebound. Also, Abreu is seeking a 3 year deal which NYY will be reluctant to give. I would not give him a 3 year no matter what considering his poor defensive skills. It will be Damon at LF, and then possibly Nady at RF (if he can play RF) and possibly Melky or anyone at CF.

by yankeesintexas on Oct 5, 2008 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would take a risk with Baldelli ...

In addition to nagging leg injuries, he also had some type of fatigue syndrome associated with his nerves, but apparently that’s in the past. Given TB’s outfield more closely resembles a Brad Pitt, Angelina Jolie family photo with kids running around all over the place, Baldelli may be the odd man out.

Baldelli is a RI guy who is neither a banger, nor a superstar. He’s a puzzle piece—a guy who, if healthy will play solid defense, and hit .280+ with 15-20 homers and 70-90 rbi. He can steal a base, bunt, hit behind the runners … In short, he’s the kind of guy we need. Is he the guy? I don’t know. Given the sorry state of Melky, I would make a run at him because I believe he can be had reasonably and would quickly become a fan favorite akin to Paul O’Neill.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 10, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

it’s a low risk, high reward move.

by Travis G on Oct 11, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cash

will probably have to be aggressive in the trade market, considering the thin FA class and all the Yankee needs. Should be a fun hot stove season.

by BrianByron on Oct 5, 2008 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i dont see this FA class as weak

in fact, as far as the top players are concerned, it’s one of the best in recent years: Sabathia, Tex and Manny are elite players in MLB and all will be available to the highest bidder in November. Not to mention Giambi, Abreu, Garland, Burnett and Sheets.

by Travis G on Oct 5, 2008 4:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Again, best player doesn't equal best fit

I’ve said it elsewhere so bear with me if you’d read my position before. Question:
Scott Brocious, David Wells, Jimmy Key, Paul O’Neill, David Cone…What do these players have in common?
Answer…Not thought of as top prospects, yet part of one of the greatest Yankee teams in recent history.

Question Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi, AROD,Bobby Abreau. What do these players have in common?
Answer… Players whom the fans were lusting after & the owners were greedy for only to create a team which has underperformed since they have come to town.

I wonder if the names that are being bandied about here.. Sabathia, Burnett, Sheets, Texeria would be part of the first question or the second? My guess is the second.

I don’t think we need a “Fantasy MLB” team. This is what has put us without a ring for almost 8 years. We need players to play well when they don the pinstripes.

by ilBrutto on Oct 5, 2008 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

this is just silly

I swear this thought process is like some sort of learning disorder….

I know.. .lets sign all the worst players we can find and that will easily make a better team then having a team full of good players… oh wait it doesnt make any sense when you use rational thought.

While I agree, you cant put together a team based on fantasy numbers… the idea behind building a team is to win, and that means scoring runs and preventing runs.

The better a player is at doing that the better your team should be.

THe problem with your and any person who says that is you just named the major problem without realizing it.

In your list you had 3 borderline HOF all star calibre pithers in your 2nd list you have 1.

The yanks problems in the postseason have been because of a lack of strong SP and strong BP.. it has nothing to do with having too many good players.. thats just silly.

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by jbluestone on Oct 5, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry I forgot

to add these names then. Tino Martinez, Joe Girardi and David Justice.
To the second list please add these mouth watering gems: Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown.

My point was that acquiring the best players doesn’t always equate to certain wins. Teams are like a good recipe, players like ingredients and no matter how delicious they may individually seem, bananas and onions won’t make a good soup.

by ilBrutto on Oct 6, 2008 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

howd that work for the

97 marlins, 2001 Dbacks,

Those are extreme examples of buying a championship.

To be honest the current yankees team has many more home grown players on it then those championship teams..

Again the biggest difference between the 96-2001 yanks and 2002-2008 yanks has been a lack of pitching.

Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown are 40 year old free agent acquisitions. not exactly the same.

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by jbluestone on Oct 7, 2008 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But what did those teams have in common?

Both teams had dominant starting pitching.

Marlins: Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Livan Hernandez, and Alex Fernandez)

D-Backs: Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling

The game really hasn’t changed all that much. Having a strong starting rotation is the best way to build a playoff caliber team, especially if you want to win in the postseason.

The late 90s Yankees tend to agree with arms like Cone, Key, Pettitte, Wells, Clemens, and El Duque mowing down hitters night after night.

by anaconda on Oct 8, 2008 3:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now about the payroll

I am pretty sure the league minimum is 400k not 500k…. not sure if thats really gonna make a difference there.

By my calculations the yankees have enough to sign Lowe, Burnett, Teix, and bring back one of moose/pettitte.

Im not a huge burnett fan which is why i would want to couple that with a signing of a guy like Lowe who along with wang should provide 200 quality innings and can alleviate your need to ride Burnett along with givng some space for the kids to devlop as well.

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by jbluestone on Oct 5, 2008 11:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

League Min.

Is 400K and change. The Yanks get to choose the salary for the one and two year guys, but the 3-5 are going to arbitration. I was just splitting the difference for simplicity’s sake. They might have an extra million dollars to play with, but they might also decide that 180 is their goal for the year, and start the season closer to 175.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 6, 2008 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah perfectly reasonable approach

Just wanted to point it out.. when talking 100s of millions i doubt the 100k for a few players really matters.

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by jbluestone on Oct 7, 2008 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

180 million budget

I have to say I think this munber is pulled out of the air.

If the Yankees had a budget like that it’d be a closely guarded secret.

I don’t think the steinbrenners are deaf to how it would look to cut the budget that much. With their new stadium to keep full they need to look like their trying hard to win.

I go on record. I predict they’ll spend enough more than $180,000,000 so it doesn’t look like much of a budget cut.

They will also sign at least one blockbuster name. If they don’t get CC everyone else’s leverage goes up.

Spending on FA’s is a form of marketing.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Oct 7, 2008 10:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

maybe the $180 mil border

is more of a negotiating ploy than anything else. if Cash says they wont go above that, maybe players/agents wont think they can hold the Yankees ransom, and Yanks can get a (slightly) more reasonable deal worked out.

by Travis G on Oct 7, 2008 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

John Garland? That was your attempt at humor?

196.2inning, 237 hits, 59 BB, 90 K, 4.90 ERA and was absoluty atrocious over the final three months. And throw in 10-13 in 2007 and a bad strikeout to walk ratio over his last two seasons. And you want to give this guy 4 years, $40MM. Do some homework before you write such ridiculous things.

by TheTruth08 on Oct 10, 2008 10:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs