How many runs does one need to win?

by Travis G on Oct 2, 2008 10:42 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

What's the record for teams when they score X runs? At which point is the biggest increase?

The Yankees final '3 runs or fewer counter' was 70. Considering it happened 89 times during the previous two seasons combined, it's a helluva lot.

On to the ML average -

At what point does one run mean the most? (2005-08)

A team scored just 1 run 1824 times from 2005-08, and won only 151 times for a .083 winning percentage.

2 runs - 2344 times - 510 wins - .218 win %

3 runs - 2638 - 888 - .337

4 runs - 2547 - 1184 - .465

5 runs - 2203 - 1351 - .613

6 runs - 1934 - 1354 - .700

7 runs - 1466 - 1168 - .797

8 runs - 1066 - 893 - .838

9+ runs - 2379 - 2218 - .932

So we can see what prompts the biggest jump in winning percentage: 5 runs, where the chances of winning increase nearly 150 percent (compared to 4 runs). Not too far behind (at a 136 % increase) is 2 runs vs. 1 run. Anything higher than 5 runs is almost a guaranteed win while anything less than 4 is nearly a guaranteed loss.

The Yankees reached the magical mark of 5 or more runs only 77 times, meaning they also scored 4 or fewer runs 85 times. It's actually a testament to their pitching that they still finished over .500.

Considering how average the team was (7th in runs scored and 8th in ERA (out of 14)), they really need to address both areas. The defense was also well below average - their Range Factor was above average at just one position (2b) and they were the 5th worst team in Defensive Efficiency (i.e., converting balls in play into outs).

This isn't encouraging. All three areas of the team were average or worse this year. Adding Mark Teixeira would increase the offense AND defense (but is the cost prohibitive?), the addition of Brett Gardner in center would neutralize a lot of hits (assuming he's just as good as this year), but what about his bat?, Manny would boost the offense tremendously (while playing just as poor a defense as Abreu, so no loss there), and CC Sabathia would obviously be the most helpful acquisition of the offseason (providing innings and quality), but does he want to play in New York?

- Did a little analysis with Defensive Efficiency. The difference between the top team (Tampa Bay) and the bottom team (Cincinnati) is just .038 %, but when we determine that that averages about 1.6 extra outs per game, it looks a lot more important. Now you might think 1.6 outs a game ain't much, but those extra outs save the pitcher's arm (and hence the bullpen) and prevent or halt rallies. Teams get just 27 per game, so to take 1.6 of those away is very valuable.

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Manny vs Bobby

I don’t have any numbers to back this up, but I would not consider Manny to be as poor as Abreu defensively. Rather, I would consider Manny to be worse. So Abreu is wall shy. I get it. I can’t think of a worse outfield defender than Ramirez though. The guy doesn’t give a shit. He’s all bat. And as good as that bat may be, I think he would bring more problems than he is worth to the Bronx.

by Pride O' Ireland on Oct 3, 2008 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

he gets this bad wrap

bc he played in the shadow of the Green Monster, which would deflate ANYONE’S fielding value. look at the difference in his Zone Rating (happy, Sky?) between Boston and LA. in Boston, he was near the bottom (.817), yet in LA he’s gone all the way up to .895. Then look how Jason Bay’s RZR decreased after his move from Pitt to Boston (.864 → .821). that ain’t merely a coincidence. and now that Manny is playing a normal LF, we can reasonably compare him to other OFers, and he compares very favorably to Abreu and is actually rated equal to Juan Pierre.

Manny looks worse, but he actually isn’t.

by Travis G on Oct 3, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't use range factor -- zone ratings are the best publicly available defensive metric.

why? because they use actual play-by-play hit location information. go to jinaz-reds.blogspot.com and find his TotalValue metric. a fielding rating (in runs) is listed for every player, an average of BIS and STATS zone ratings.

and yes, the yankees were a very bad fielding team, about six wins worse than average. 2B was about ten runs below average, while catcher, Melky in center, and 3B were the only positives.

here’s a quick rule of thumb for how much those 1.6 extra outs are worth. each out is worth about -.3 runs according to linear weights. 1.6 times .3 is about .48 runs per game. the Yankee defense cost their pitchers about half a run of ERA.

if you see a fielding metric that’s in terms of /- plays, then mulitply by .8 runs per play to convert to runs. why? because the linear weights difference between a single (.5 runs) and an out (-.3 runs) is .8 runs.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 3, 2008 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the problem with THT

is that you cant see the ranking for every Yankee fielder compared to the league average. BRef (where i get the RF) makes it super easy.

i looked at that Reds website, but that doesn’t make it very easy either.

but you can still see how much Manny improved, from -12 runs in Boston to ‘only’ -2 in LA.

Pride O’Ireland: Abreu is -28 on the year! yes, he’s cost us 28 runs in the field. Manny hasn’t been nearly as bad – even adding the Fenway stats (when, like i said, it would deflate every LFer’s stats), he’s still only at -13.5. Abreu has cost us twice as many runs in the field. add in the fact that he hits like a HOFer, and he’s a clear upgrade over Abreu.

fyi, that half a run of ERA equates to 85 runs this year. that’s 8-9 wins right there.

by Travis G on Oct 3, 2008 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Justin's numbers should make things super easy

zero is average at each position.

or maybe your point is that you want things in rate form, instead of a counting stat. then yeah, you have an issue — email Justin’ and I’m sure he’d be willing to send you data with runs per 150 games for all players.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 4, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually, it looks like

0 is Replacement Level, and i personally prefer the average.
regardless, i still have to search for every single Yankee fielder (among thousands on that list), whereas BRef has it all right there and gives the total team rating for each position (in addition to each player). i know Range Factor isn’t perfect, but i haven’t come across a defensive metric that is.

i will take up that offer and email him.

by Travis G on Oct 5, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

0 is replacement level on offense; for positional adjustments and fielding, 0 is average

for the yankee numbers, just copy his spreadsheet into Excel and sort.

no, nothing is perfect, but there are degrees of non-perfectness. using range factor instead of zone ratings is like using RBIs instead of linear weights.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2008 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs