Doing the Math

by jscape2000 on Oct 15, 2008 10:17 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 13 comments

NoMaas does the draft math, and here's their conclusion:

So, going into this offseason, the Yankees' 2009 draft picks are:

1st round: #26, #31 (Cole)

2nd round: #76 (approximately), and #80 (Bittle)

Lets say they sign Sabathia AND Teixeira. They lose their natural 1st and 2nd rounders, and are still left with picks #31 and #80. Now, lets say out of the six free agents that are coming off the books, Giambi, Pudge, Abreu, and Marte are offered arbitration and sign elsewhere. This adds an additional SEVEN draft picks, in the first 80 or so picks of the draft, to the Yankees haul.

The Cole and Bittle picks are protected under the new collective bargaining agreement since those players didn't sign when drafted in 2008. Giambi and Abreu are locks to be able to sign elsewhere (and the more I think about it, the more I'm sure they should be let go).

From what I understand, though, Pudge and Giambi are on the bubble of Type A/ Type B. TigersThoughts reverse engineers the top-secret Elias ranking formula that determines A/B status. He has Pudge as the final A among eligible catchers. He's computed Giambi's raw score, but not his ranking; Giambi is 8th among 17 eligible 1B.

Cashman and his team are back because they have received credit for turning the farm system around. This June could determine Cashman's next contract.

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That

is a boatload of picks. Replenishing our farm system is always a plus. Off topic. Andrew Brackman has started pitching in the Hawaii League. Prior to his injury the 6’10 97 mph flamethrower was rehabbing his tommy johned elbow. Why not have Joba pitch in the rotation and have this kid with ridiculous upside (Ace like) become Mo’s setup man and eventual successor. Just so we can squash the Joba debate. Granted we won’t see him pitch in the bigs in 09’ unless he has Joba/Price like production and cruises threw the minors but we have an ace in the hole. His raw talent/size/ability can not be denied.

by ProudYankee on Oct 16, 2008 1:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Re: Brackman

Every pitcher with as much high upside as Brackman does in the Yankee system MUST be a starting pitcher until he fails. That’s just common sense.

Just as in the case of Joba, why limit Brackman’s ceiling if it’s not necessary?

And considering Brackman’s huge frame, he’ll probably have to work extra hard on getting his mechanics down. So that along with the fact that he’s coming off TJ – we probably won’t see him pitching in the bigs at all until maybe late 2010 or perhaps 2011.

by anaconda on Oct 16, 2008 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You want the

Joba debate to be squashed because you believe he has so much talent and should start…. but then someone who has comparable talent should move to the bullpen….

by daneptizl on Oct 16, 2008 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FIrst

Brackman has had major surgery. Tommy John takes well over a yr to rehab. Joba has never had issues like that. A strained forearm, that’s it.

On Brackmans delivery. The Yankees have tweaked it making him deliver an over the top motion to take away from the strain he placed on his elbow.

And Im only saying move him to the pen b/c he needed TJ surgery well before he was in the majors. That can’t be a good sign.

By all means Bracks can get called up, blow people away and become a starter. But if we are talking about next year or 10’ than he will be a reliever simply b/c or starting pitching staff should be loaded.

by ProudYankee on Oct 16, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually ...

The majority of TJ surgeries performed in the U.S. are to young players—high schoolers, college, minors. Given that there are about 80 pitchers pitching in the bigs who have had successful TJ surgery I’d suggest that having TJ surgery before you reach the bigs is, well, no big deal.

Here’s something else I gathered from talking to my orthopedic surgeon buddy. He says following TJ rehab, most pitchers actually throw harder.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 16, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've

heard that to. Something to do with the replacement tendon being stronger than the natrual tendon.

by ProudYankee on Oct 16, 2008 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe it's

shorter and thicker. More snap at the end of the pitcher’s “whipping” motion.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 17, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

A good starting pitcher is better than a good relief pitcher. A dominant starting pitcher is more valuable than a dominant relief pitcher.

There is a reason why 90% or more relief pitchers are failed starters. They weren’t effective over that many innings, they had injury issues, they only have one or two pitches, etc. Even Mariano Rivera, arguably the greatest relief pitcher ever, wasn’t a very good starter.

If you have a pitcher that throws close to 100 mph with good control, and consistently has excellent command of 3 or 4 pitches, and doesn’t have any unusually high injury risks, why would you only want him to pitch 70 innings a year, when he could be pitching 200?

by 3460kuri on Oct 16, 2008 10:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Mariano is a great example of why some pitchers are simply better off in the pen. He really has one pitch. Granted that one pitch has been baffling hitters for more than a decade, however, to be successful in a starting rotation a pitcher must command 3 pitches. To be dominant a pitcher must command 4.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 16, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really...

Santana, Sabathia, Lincecum, Coles, Volquez, etc. don’t.

by daneptizl on Oct 17, 2008 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rule of thumb

Always exceptions, but the general rule of thumb has been and will continue to be a starter needs to effectively command three pitches, a superstar #1 commands 4. The guys you’ve mentioned—especially Santana, Sabathia each have 3 Lincecum from what I know of him has four.

Not sure of the Coles you are mentioning? Perhaps Bimbo Coles? I know he’s played alittle basketball, but not sure about his pitching acumen, though.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 17, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well....

I’d consider Santana, Sabathia, Lincecum dominant, but they don’t do it with 4 pitches. Hamels and Volquez had real good seasons, but they also don’t really use 4.

by daneptizl on Oct 17, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs