OF Trade Options To Boost The Defense

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 10:37 AM EDT Comment 19 comments

There's been a lot of discussion here recently about improving the Yankees defense. For 2009, there are two positions that can be addressed: first base and the outfield (by moving Matsui to DH, assuming/hoping Posada can catch). Tex is the obvious solution at first base, but it's been more difficult to come up with outfield solutions. The outfielder could either play center (with Damon in left) or a corner spot (with Damon in center).

So, I quickly ran through Justin's 2008 stats (which combine offense and defense) to find some possible trade targets. The numbers listed below are 2008 OPS and 2008 defensive runs, which are adjusted for position. Players are listed in a very subjective order considering cost vs. reward:

Randy Winn, .790, +5 runs (Giants are rebuilding and his OPS is OBP-heavy)

Marlon Byrd, .848, +4 (split time between CF and corner spots, Rangers have many OFs)

Nelson Cruz, 1.030, +4 (he's always dominated AAA and finally put a hurt on MLB pitching, albeit in only 133 PAs; did I mention the Rangers have too many outfielders?)

Cody Ross, .804, +10 (he's what everyone hoped Melky would become)

Alex Rios, .798, +4 (would take a huge package, but he's a stud and has been mentioned as a trade option before)

Jayson Werth, .861, +9 (the Phillies know what they have here, though)

Franklin Gutierrez, .691, +17 (right now he's Melky plus an even better glove, but the bat could improve -- maybe)

Kosuke Fukudome, .738, +9 (seriously, he's an excellent fielder, is only making $7MM a year, and Piniella hates him)

Carl Crawford, .718, +2 (he's better than this offensively and the Rays eventually need to pare payroll)

Willie Harris, .761, +16 (probably not quite this good in the field, but still...)

Skip Schumaker, .765, 0 (corner guy, a last option)

Endy Chavez, .632, +11 (ok, not really, but he was more productive than Corey Hart this year overall...)

Juan Pierre, .285, +5 (just kidding, take a deep breath everyone)

By the way, at least two-thirds of the players listed above were more productive than Bobby Abreu this past year and all are better deals. Who do you like? Anyone I missed?

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The only ones I'd consider ...

in order of desire: Carl Crawford.
That’s it for me. Of course this is highly unlikely to happen anytime soon—if at all. But if we were to add his speed and defense to the Yankees, and move Matsui to a fulltime DH, then we’d only have a few holes to plug—namely pitching, first-base and catcher.

I say we make a play for either Saltalamacchia, or Laird, in the catching department, and Kotchman at first. I’d also be lining up the Brink’s trucks for CC and Peavy.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 15, 2008 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i think you're crazy, then ; )

a number of players are better than CC:
Werth
Winn
Rios

and a number have similar value with better contracts:
Ross
Byrd
probably Nelson Cruz

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can improve the team by developing prospects or

You can improve the team by signing FA’s.

Trading is a zero sum game. That means to get something good you need to give away something good. Trading only heps a team when they give something they don’t need too much (because they have other options there) for something they really need. I don’t see much evidence we can win at trading because our scouting is better than the other guys. We may always lose because theirs is better.

A good trade was the Nady trade. We gave young pitchers with potential, which we have plenty of, for a guy who can play outfield and might be a solid, though not great hitter. The Yanks are better because they gve stuff they didn’t really need, Karsten, Ohlendorf, etc fro something we needed then. We also traded the future for the present. BUT….If Ohlendorf becomes the pitcher I think he can become we’ll regret this trade on the blog for 20 years.

We are the Yankees, so we need to win now. We also need to win in the future.

The result of these two facts is that we can’t afford to trade away all our future for the present. So, while the prospects aren’t off limits, I don’t have as many I want to trade as we did before. We all wish we still had Navarro.

Now, what is the state of the Yankees.
Picthing starters, We need help, sign 2 FA’s
Pitching refief, We have enough to trade a couple arms.
Infield, 3rd, 2nd, SS we’re set unless we trade someone. I don’t recomend trading anyone (Cano) because if we trade we downgrade and we have to acquire the replacement because we do not have ML ready replacements.
First, losing G to FA means we need to sign from FA or promote prospect. IF they choose to go with internal candidates I can live with that.
OF, we have too many good O ordinary to poor D outfielders. WE could use an upgrade but what we have to trade is Damon or Matsui or Melky or Gardiner or Nady or several of them. I’d package any one or two of these guys with a reliever (or two) for a stud outfielder. If you trade 2 say Melky and Nady you’ll need to resign Abreu, who you probably cannot trade.

Listen that’s not enough to get a stud outfielder unless he’s a distressed unload of some sort.

Long and short of this is.

We can add pitching via FA and we should. We should upgrade first via FA (Tex) if we can. Otherwise go with what we got.

If it were me I’d be trying to trade a pitching prospect or 2 for a catching prospect (ML ready or close) and an infielder. We have a lot of pitching prospect and if we don’t trade some of them we wont get full value for them.

WE cannot afford to trade for an outfielder unless the main thing we give is outfielders. It’s going to be very hard to upgrade via trade.

I am not at all sure a profitable trades are out there to be made. Thinking we’ll improve via trade is self deception.

I’m with Ronster, back up the Brinks truck for the FA pitchers and sign the top ones that will come to NY and be Yankees. (CC)

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Oct 15, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

there are many ways to receive more value than you give up and still have it be a fair trade

- losing team undersells on soon-to-be free agents
- trade from a strength to fill a hole (if you can’t play a decent player, he’s not providing value — and upgrade from Melky to Beltran is more important than upgrading from Damon to Beltran)

value is somewhat relative based on team needs and time frame for competing.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No point ...

In gutting your farm system (and ours is bursting with talent after years of being among the lowest in pro ball), for a collection of guys who don’t warrant such a drastic move. Rios is a very good player, but he’s not a stud as you mentioned. The Jays aren’t going to part with a homegrown cornerstone player without great compensation. … Sorry, target your most pressing need and brink $$$—not prospects.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 15, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

am i right that you think pitching is the most pressing need?

if so, that’s wrong. this year’s cluster-F of a rotation was still league-average when you consider the crappy fielding. next year’s will include more Wang, more Hughes, more Joba and less Rasner, less Ponson, and less Pavano (and will also have to fill in the quality innings of at least one of Moose/Pettitte).

not that adding CC or a stud pitcher is a bad thing. fielding is a pressing need. whether it’s solved with money or whatever, it needs to be fixed.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fielding is more important than pitching? (for improving the Yanks)

I am glad you’re writing here and not working for the Yankees.

That is such nonesense that it nearly leaves me speachless.

Improving the starting pitching isn’t the most important thingf that will improve the team’s results, It is the only thing. (Sorry Vince)

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Oct 15, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

damn, lost a post. here's the summary:

fielding is much cheaper to improve on the free agent market because most teams don’t measure it or value it properly (like the Yankees). and when you can improve fielding just by acquiring average fielders, it’s so easy.

i do agree that the rotation actually has more potential for improvement, because the range of pitching talent is so much wider than fielding talent. but why would you start by spending $20MM per year to upgrade by five wins when upgrading the fielding would barely cost anything above the all-hit, no-field options (Giambi, Abreu, Dunn, Burrell, Manny, etc.) Randy Winn is better than all those guys except Manny, and he’s close to Manny. Think he’ll cost nearly as much as any of them?

estimates of each facet of the game for the 2008 yankees:
fielding -5 wins
rotation average
bullpen +5 wins (thanks, Mo and Joba and Farnsworth in the clutch)
offense +5 wins

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

that you guys are talking from different perspective though, fielding is something that the Yankees can do without significantly changing their plans to improve the team . (smaller trade /acquisitions, or the choices between different FAs taht might cost similar money. )

I think CC and Teix are a must, that’s a no brainer, the question is what else we can do to spice things up a bit.

Amoung the guys on that list, guys you could potentially get without costing more than worth the trouble and isn’t a potential small sample fluke (on the bad side) is Fukudome and Winn

by RollingWave on Oct 16, 2008 3:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you even have to ask?

It’s all pitching all the time. Quality starters shutdown quality hitters. Just look at our performances in the playoffs the last few years. Adding a banger or two is the sexy pick. Adding quality starters wins in October.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 15, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you'd be surprised how much of pitching is actually fielding

you know how all those Rays pitchers, like Sonnanstine, Edwin Jackson, JP Howell, etc. suddenly look really good this year? their defense is good instead of really crappy.

and here’s a good mini-study showing that offense is just as useful as pitching for success: http://www.detroittigertales.com/2008/09/offense-as-important-as-pitching-for.html

(and, gasp, defense is useful, too!)

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fielding is ...

important—but only if pitchers aren’t walking bases full and giving up balls that can’t be caught. Don’t insinuate that I’m diminishing the importance of sound defense. But it’s only part of the game.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Oct 16, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From a

true talent perspective though, it’s hard to see anyone of those guys (outside of Rios) being better than Crawford. Werth comes close if he proves he can stay healthy,

by RollingWave on Oct 16, 2008 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we're in much of a position to be trading at the moment

Like Cbeck said, you have to trade something good in order to get something good. I would personally, very much like to sign Baldelli for a relatively cheap deal. He’s going to be a free agent this season, and he seems to have his disease on the run, as he’s getting stronger, since a diagnosis in spring training. He’s a very good player when he’s healthy, and something like two years for eight million dollars, plus a couple of team options would work for both parties. If Baldelli does remain injured, then it will be a short term risk for the Yankees, and Baldelli would be guaranteed more money than he’s made so far.
We wouldn’t have to spend a bunch of money, and we wouldn’t lose any prospects.
My other option that I would like, and it could be done also, rather than one or the other, would be to either trade Nady, and some pitching, for a new SS, and move Jeter to the outfield. I would also like to look at signing Furcal. Jeter’s defense at short is quite poor, but his athleticism should translate well into the outfield, and his arm is plenty strong to play in RF.

by rory_sayer on Oct 15, 2008 5:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice post Sky

The price to bring in Rios or Crawford (in division) would be too rich for my blood, especially since Crawford is signed til 2010 and Rios until 2015!

Winn is an interesting option as a RF, but can he play center well enough to hold the position down for a full season?

With Matsui, Damon, and Nady under contract, I don’t think we need a corner outfielder (unless we move one of those 3).

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Oct 15, 2008 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd trust Damon to center, honestly. his range there is probably still about average, maybe slightly under

I really wouldn’t want to see Matsui playing the field any more — he’s probably -10 runs below average there now. The tough part about roster construction is you don’t know if Posada will be able to catch. If not, he’s a 1B/DH, meaning you can’t go get both Tex and another corner OF without risking having an extra guy on the roster. And you don’t know if you really need to have a non-Jose-Molina as backup.

Crawford’s probably a small possibility, especially if the Rays think they’re getting the better end of the deal, but yeah, I’d forgotten about Rios’ nice contract extension. Another feather in the underrated Ricciardi’s cap.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 15, 2008 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

the Yankees must move foward assuming he can catch, other wise they end up with a below average 1B and a abosalute black hole in C regardless. if you sign Teix at least you only have the later (albeit still costly)

by RollingWave on Oct 16, 2008 3:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense is a great way to win more game

Thats exactly what the Rays did from last year to this year, transforming from one of the worst defensive teams to the best.

Lets look at two positions that will def. change this year.. RF and 1B…. Both giambi and abreu made about a total of 50 plays below average. Which amounts to about 25 extra runs allowed which amounts to about wins right there.

So if you can improve the defense at those two positions without sacrificing offense you can improive by 3 or more wins.

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Oct 16, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs