D
by jscape2000
on Oct 15, 2008 7:01 AM EDT
In a recent post, Sky Kalkman said:
[O]ne of the biggest reasons the Yankees have underachieved in the eyes of mainstream fans/analysts is that their fielding has stunk for a while now. fix that. now.
Easy to say, impossible to do. I've been watching the Rays this postseason and what has struck me is that they are good enough hitters and stellar fielders (excepting Upton, who becomes scarier to me by the minute; I like the nickname the announcer gave him last night, though: Cruise Control). But with so much of the Yanks O locked up, it seems like it would take a blockbuster (or two) to straighten out the D.
We have below average defense at 1B, 2B,
Arod ranked around average, and Jeter was above average this year after being the worst in the majors last season.
None of our left fielders qualified, but Melky was apparently the second best CF in the league*. Abreu, on the other hand, was second from worst.
*Interesting side note, Coco Crisp went from best to worst in defense.
So we have the chance to upgrade defense in right and at first. We want more offense from center (cause you'd need to cover LF and CF to make up for a .249/.301/.341 line).
Let's assume that Nady and Damon can be around average in left and right. Following this logic, Tex makes perfect sense and the Yanks throw down the big bucks to bring the switch hitter to the Bronx.
But a run through the top ten defensive CF doesn't show much hope for a trade: Gomez, Cabrera (anybody want him?), Adam Jones, Sizemore, Patterson (Dusty Baker will not let that boy's career die), Victorino, Beltran, Granderson, Mike "Greenie" Cameron, and Chris Young.
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ehhh disagree quiet a bit
first off, defense can change. Derek Jeter suddenly had a decent defensive season this year after a few really bad onces. (he’s been bad most of the time but decent a few times) Cano was very good from 06 to the first half of 08, then suddenly stunk in the second half of 08. Posada was actually pretty darn good defensively in 06, then got worse from there.
Defense can change. obviously people getting older generally will get worse. but sometimes that’s not necceasrily true.
For example, the biggest defensive culprit this year was surpisingly neither Jeter nor Giambi, but Bobby Abreu, letting him walk helps. as his wall phobia is probably incurable, Jeter’s issue have a lot to do with his positioning and first steps, he actually complained about (internet people) bitching his defense earlier this year, then turned in one of his better defensive years. coincidence? or maybe the message got to him?
Anyway. obviously we can’t make guys change into something they’re not, but it is possible to make them the best they’re potentially are.
Cano has the quality of a really good fielder. he has flashed that and quiet often, he as can suck with the best of them. getting him right will mean a lot.
it makes a difference definately, but in the end i great bat bad glove guy is still usually more valuable then the other way around (who do you take? Jeter or Vizquel?)
by RollingWave on Oct 15, 2008 7:23 AM EDT 0 recs
I'm not sure where the author got that Jeter was good this, but he was a bit better than his recent awful years
I agree on Cano, though — he’d been at least average before this year — and should rebound a bunch.
ARod continues to be average to a bit above average.
Tex would be at least +10 runs at first.
Damon could probably still be at least league average in center in regards to range, and while his arm might hurt, it’s going to be bad in left, too.
Some decent changes can be made for next year, but 2-3 years is when things really need to be fixed.
Next Year:
Let Abreu and Giambi walk
Sign Teixeira
Damon in center
Matsui at DH (if Posada can catch)
Sign/trade for an average bat with a good glove for LF/RF (wherever Nady doesn’t play) — Randy Winn would be a nice target.
+20 runs Giambi to Tex
-10 runs Melky to Damon
+20 runs Abreu to Nady
evenish Damon to Winn
That’s 30 runs right there, although I’d expect Jeter to fall off about 5 runs and Cano to improve about 5-10 runs.
Long Term:
Jeter’s gone after 2010; new SS is at least a league-average fielder
Damon’s gone after 2009; new CF is at least league-average with a decent arm
Nady and Matsui are gone after 2009; new corner outfielders have stealthy combination of offense and (gasp) defense
After 2010, the lineup will see turnover at most positions and could realistically post fielders who are all good with the glove, say something like this:
1B: +15 runs (Tex)
2B: average (Cano)
SS: +5 runs
3B: average (aging ARod)
LF: +5 runs
CF: +5 runs
RF: +5 runs
That defense is 35 runs above average, almost NINETY runs better than the 2008 team. That’s worth nine wins. The cool thing is that defense costs almost nothing compared to offense on the free agent market (Randy Winn is a better player than Bobby Abreu, but Abreu gets paid more, for example) meaning the Yankees can spend big bucks on a few key players (Tex, maybe CC, maybe Sizemore when he’s a FA) and still be able to fill most other holes with free agents. Anyone developed internally is icing on the cake.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 15, 2008 9:56 AM EDT
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ESPN
I believe you and Travis had this disagreement earlier, but I was tossing this post together before I went to work.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
by jscape2000 on
Oct 15, 2008 6:17 PM EDT
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RZR
I’m well aware that defensive metrics can often disagree with each other, but that and some personal observation sugggest to me that Jeter was at least better then some of his worest years this year.
by RollingWave on
Oct 16, 2008 3:15 AM EDT
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Also
I agree almost completely with what your saying, though I think Cano has a solid shot of being above average while Teix probably won’t save THAT much.
On Winn vs Abreu though, I think your overlooking that in the context of their career, Abreu is eons better hitter than Winn, Winn as a hitter is somewhat of a average to slightly below average hitter in most years. and a hitter like that tends to collapse offesnively more often then not when your not expecting it. (see Winn 06) . for that reason alone Abreu is simply a more valuable player. defense can be fluky at times, though Winn is definately a much much better fielder than Abreu, defensive values can and will usually swing wildly in either direction relative to offensive productions.
In a one year bases, you might debate that Winn can and often is more valuable than Abreu, in a 3-5 year context though, that’s hard to do.
by RollingWave on
Oct 16, 2008 3:24 AM EDT
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I hate this measurement
I think there must be observer bias here somehow.
How can it be that there are such big swings? Crisp from best to worst. Jete from worst to above average?
Abreu is better than they say. I saw a lot of games. I trust my own eyes. Cano is better than they say. Melky is not as good as they say. He’s not bad, but he’s ordinary.
I’m saying it again, there’s nothing wrong with this team that a better perfornace at starting pitching won’t fix.
A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)
by Cbeck3 on Oct 15, 2008 11:57 AM EDT 0 recs
From what I can tell, and what Sky said elsewhere, the fielding is basically the average of Zone Rating and Revised Zone Rating (RZR).
RZR
Crisp 2007: .909
Crisp 2008: .927
Jeter 2007: .777
Jeter 2008: .839
Zone Rating
Crisp 2007: .911
Crisp 2008: .826
Jeter 2007: .765
Jeter 2008: .829
Jeter’s improvement from 07 to 08 is consistent with both metrics. I think they’re capturing some real improvement. Crisp’s decline according to Justin seems to stem entirely from worse Zone Rating numbers.
RZR is arguably better than ZR for two reasons, as discussed here. It doesn’t give extra credit for double plays, and it handles balls out of the zone (OOZ) separately.
Watching the games, Crisp’s defense still seems strong, although he hasn’t made as many tremendous ranging catches as last year. I think his rating as -12.6 runs at his position is completely unbelievable and an indictment of the value of this rating system.
Justin’s infernal numbers
Ken Griffey Jr gets a +3.2 runs at CF? Huh? And the scales seem completely wrong. If you look at fielding, you’ll see infielders getting way higher values than outfielders. Pujols and Tex are valued around 20 and 14 respectively. The highest CF is Carlos Gomez at 14.3. The idea that plus defense at 1B and 3B is worth more than the best fielding at CF flies completely in the face of baseball logic.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on
Oct 15, 2008 2:44 PM EDT
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interesting stuff on Jeter/Crisp
as for griffey, that’s just his limited playing time with Chicago. like with hitting, anything can happen over 140 PAs. with Cincinnati he was rated poorly, in right field.
there are two parts to defense in Justin’s numbers, position and fielding relative to position. Gomez gets about a five run bonus for playing CF and the 1Bs get docked about 10 runs. So, overall, here are their defensive values:
Gomez: +17
Pujols: +9
Teixeira: +9
It is interesting that no center fielder was more than +14 runs relative to position this year (and no SS was extremely high, either). But last year Granderson and Tulo were in the +25 runs range even before the position adjustment.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 15, 2008 3:34 PM EDT
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more info
At 1B, there were three players at least 10 runs better than average and nine more than 5 runs better than average.
In CF, there were two players at least 10 runs better than average and ten more than 5 runs better than average.
So this year there was a similar spread in fielding talent at 1B and CF. Yes, somewhat counter-intuitive.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 15, 2008 3:41 PM EDT
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As we've all learned in statistics class ....
numbers can prove anything and nothing. Stats are great—even the obscure ones. But they are no measure for what beats in a guy’s chest.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on
Oct 15, 2008 4:32 PM EDT
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that's bullshit
the only people who are convinced by crappy statistics are the people who don’t understand them.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 15, 2008 4:49 PM EDT
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What's bullshit ...
my comments deriding the methodology of the RZR, or the RZR itself. I agree with the comments below. But again, baseball is stat heavy, and like fielding, it’s a fascinating part of the game. But it the numbers can be used to do anything. And they really can’t measure a guy’s heart and drive.
"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will
by Ronster22 on
Oct 16, 2008 10:40 AM EDT
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Not really counterintuitive.
The more outs you get, the higher your zone rating is. 1B is easier to field than CF or SS. You put an athletic guy at 1B, he’ll make a lot of plays. But for that to be worth considerably more than the CF’s contribution strikes me as flawed. Those numbers that you keep linking to should be updated to account for the fact that it is harder to field CF or SS than 1B.
Also, I don’t like the methodology of combining two zone ratings, although I understand his rationale. And FSR (which I assume he doesn’t use in these since the 08 numbers aren’t out) really bothers me, because it seems too subjective.
"It's just a tiny little nick, but it hurts when I get champagne in there."
- Jason Bay, on getting spiked scoring the winning run in ALDS Game Four.
by 0157H7 on
Oct 15, 2008 10:42 PM EDT
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the numbers I'm linking to DO include the fact that 1B is easier than CF
that’s the position adjustment. there are two parts to defense. one is figuring out how much more valuable one position is than the other, which is based on the pool of players that can handle the position and the average difference in fielding ability of players at each position. the second is figuring how well each player fields their position relative to positional average. in summary: defense = position + fielding.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Oct 16, 2008 3:43 PM EDT
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