State of the Yankees
by anaconda on Jul 8, 2007 4:13 PM EDT
in New York Yankees News
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During the Joe Torre Era, the Yanks have been to the post-season each and every season since he took over as manager in 1996. This is the time of year when Yankee fans and baseball experts alike focus on the July 31st trade deadline and speculate on what moves this team should make to put them over the top in the AL East and get ready for October.
Unfortunately, this season has been one disappointment after another and the post-season appears to be pipedream. With a 42-43 record, outside of a miraculous 1969 Mets-like comeback, this team will miss the post-season for the first time since 1993.
Here's some questions to consider:
#1 -- Should the Yanks make any significant moves before the deadline to upgrade this team for the second half?
#2 -- If so, what move(s) should they make? Any particular names come to mind?
#3 -- Can this team still get to the post-season?
#4 -- How many wins will the Yanks have at season's end?
#5 -- What will be the biggest surprise in the second half?
#6 -- What do you expect to see from Phil Hughes once he returns?
Please keep this thread focused on the second half of 2007. I will post another thread on Tuesday focusing on the off-season and 2008.
We have a three-day break from Yankee Baseball, so I wanted to spread these posts out a bit.
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dunno
This year it's just not clear what is wrong or if it can be fixed by new players. Early on, the pitching was horrible then it tightened up and the offense went into a tail spin. The fielding is either brilliant or atrocious. The bullpen has been overworked or underworked but not rightly utilized.
Then again, they seem to lose for no reason sometimes other than they just can't get it together that night. A poor excuse for baseball's biggest payroll.
I'm still not clear on what is wrong with this team except it should not be wrong. It works on paper. How it does not translate into more is beyond me. Poor pitching some days, poor hitting other days, costly errors and lackluster management and coaching. Other than that, we're perfect.
I'm at a loss because I still can't believe half the stuff I've seen so far this year. I would not know how to fix it and I don't depend on Brian Cashman to figure it out either.
Bizarre
RE:State of the yankees
- The pitching will be better once Igawa is off the active roster (at least as a starter...who knows he may be an effective reliever). Offensively, it depends on the return of Giambi. If he will return, I'd stick with what we got. If not, I'd look for a bat that would fit in either at 1B or the outfield.
- Texeria would be good, but I wouldn't give up any of the stud pitchers...which likely means he wouldn't be available. Depending on the cost, Dmitri Young would be a good fit, and likely quite cheap.
- Yes. In my mind the team is 43-43 (I'm counting the suspended Oriole game), which means we're 9.5 back in the Division, and 8.5 back in the wildcard. We made up 7 games in two weeks in june, and six games remain with Boston.
- 95
- i think Hughes will be solid, but not great. I'm picturing 5-6 IP/start with an ERA around 4.00.
by nbeyer189 on Jul 8, 2007 5:36 PM EDT reply actions
State of the Yankees
2)They should get gagne for alan horne or jeff marquez, or both won't make the majors as constant starters w/ Hughes, Chamberlain, Betances, Sanchez, Kennedy, Clippard, Karstens, and Rasner ahead of them, and horne and marquez will never get griffey
They should also trade away mike myers for some crap organizational player, and farnsworth for a prospect like a kevan whelan or anthony clagget, like they got in the sheffield deal
They should try to deal away damon for a second-rate prospect (horne, marquez, clippard) and eat half his salary
- Yeah, if they win 2 of 3 and 3 of 4 for EVERY SERIES
- 92, max
6) somewhere between his debut against the blue jays and the 6.2 no-hit innings
SotY
- Yes
- These may not seem like big moves to the mainstream media:
b- DFA Wil Nieves
c- Trade Farnsworth for whatever you can get. Maybe a backup catcher.
d- Call up Chris Britton
e- Trade for a guy like David Riske who is quietly having a good year. (I like Gagne too, but he's a bigger name who will cost more).
- Indubitably.
- 93
- Yanks' record in one run games improves (a lot)
- He'll be better than Clemens, but not as good as Andy (even if Andy returns to earth a little).
State of the Yankees
- Yes
- Absolutely. This team could use bullpen upgrades, for one thing. Farnsworth should go. Mike Myers should go. We need a new backup catcher. Perhaps most importantly, we need to shore up 1st base. Shelley Duncan WILL NOT do the job.
- I'm gonna say yes, for a number of reasons:
b. This team obviously has the ability. As mentioned above, this team SHOULD have 51 wins based on how many runs scored and how many they've allowed. I keep saying it over and over, but that's because it's probably true---this is because of bad luck. The Yankees can't keep playing under what they should be for that long. Of course, winning a game 12 to 0 (as we did today) will throw this off a bit, but even that is bad luck. The Yanks should be able to spread runs around.
- I'll say 93.
- Hmmm...biggest second half surprise. This is tough. It wouldn't be surprising to see them come back, considering the amount of ability that we know they have. So, I'll go with jscape, and say that the record in one run games improves a lot, although even that wouldn't be that big a surprise.
- Hughes is good. Maybe not great, but good. He showed his ability during that no-hitter game before he got injured. I'm talking ERA in the 3.00's when he comes back.
Love the signature
thanks
ohh
Yankee Moves
Moves: The Yanks should not make any "upgrade" moves this year because there's no upgrading this team for 2007. They are looking at 86 wins at best with this bullpen and defense.
As for trades, they should look toward 2008 and deal Farnsworth, Abreu, and Mussina at a minimum; these are players whom real contenders may mistakenly believe will add value for a playoff run.
No, the postseason is unrealistic. Their opponents are younger and stronger this year.
86 wins.
Biggest surprise: one of the young pitchers will emerge such as Clippard, Chamberlain, Henn or Rasner, either out of the pen or as a starter. Hughes is, of course, a given. He seems like a stud.
Hughes won't pitch much the rest of the year and shouldn't. They should break him back in gently.
I wrote a post yesterday about Cashman
Thanks Anaconda. How many of us knew we would never win Saturday after 9 innings?
I have to say I'm shocked they rebounded today.
They need to go 16-5 in the next 21 games to have any kind of a chance this year entering into the trade deadline.
I can't imagine how it will be with no meaningful baseball during the summer.
Did anyone see Jorba
I saw it....
Didn't look sharp, but it's hard to judge a performance based on just one inning of work.
Can't put too much emphasis on it because Hughes got lit up in his outing last year.
Cashman
He also said that A-rod's re-signing at the end of the year is up to him (Arod) that Alex can leave or stay, it's his choice. He sounded very blaise about it, like either Arod has made noise that he's leaving or Cashman doesn't care if he does or not.
He definitely had the deer-in-the-headlights look and never once mentioned the bullpen.
weird interview.
Crash-man
I've been reading a few things lately about Cashman, and here's what I think happened. (Let me add that I am not a Cashman apologist). I think he saw a team of aging stars and realized what with rising costs, the bogus luxury tax, he needed to bolster the farm system ala Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, Cleveland ... but what made his job all but impossible was the fact that he was the GM for the Yankees. Frankly, he's not allow to lose. Given that scenerio, Cashman tried to walk the thin fence--rebuilding, restocking the farm system while putting a winning on the field.
He couldn't do it.
He failed because he's not an astute talent evaluator, or visionary. He's a checkbook GM. I miss those days of Bob Watson and Gene Michael--those are the guys who sowed the seeds that built our last dynasty. Sadly, Cashman rode their wave.
I'm no GM, but I can't fathom not having already signed Mo, Posada. I can't understand why they haven't already approached Arod/Boras with a blank check? Boras probably would spike any such negotiation, but Cashman needs to show his love for Arod by approaching him now. Waiting until the season ends to sign/or let go any of these guys is insane, and only galvanizes my perception of Cashman as a bad GM.
Well Yes
That should have been enough to win the division.
Bad luck (losing one run games, pitching injuries, slumping offense while the pitching is good, and no pitching while the offense is good) ran the team into the ground. It seems like a better team than the 97 games winners.
He gave Joe the players he wanted at a couple of positions (Cairo, Villone) and put his foot down on some others (Phelps). We all know what happened from there.
What about that evaluation makes him a checkbook GM? We clamored for Moose to stay, and he took a discount to do so.
I'll agree about Mo, but Posada is a 35 year old catcher. And I agree with Cash's stance (and he's been consistent about it) Arod is under contract for three more years, unless he takes his opt out clause we're not going to talk extention because that sets a terrible precedent. Once he opts out, then you show him the money. Who knows? Arod might not come back for any price.
Posada ...
As for Mo? He's only the greatest closer of all-time and we're screwing with him? Yeah, closers of his caliber, who can pitch under the white hot intensity of NYC are a dime-a-dozen. This lack of movement above all others is obscene to me.
Arod, I'm taking his pulse. I make it clear we want him to stay. That's all. No figures exchanged. I just make it a point to call him every freaking morning to sing love songs into his ears.
You wrote: with two of Pavano, Igawa, Hughes, Olendorf, Rasner, and Karstens--What? Six unproven pitchers being counted on to fill two rotation spots? Of the six, only Pavano has had any measure of success (would you roll the dice on him returning to form? If you answer "yes" you and Cashman may have been separated at birth.) Signing Igawa, and then admitting you didn't know what to expect other than he's "not a blower," also shows a foolish sense.
Hughes? No one really anticipated him helping the club until after the break.
Again, foolish thinking by Cashman who lacks the astute eye for talent, and throws money where he shouldn't (Johnson, Pavano, Wright, Igawa).
Posada and Mo
You and others keep complaining about how awful Cashman is for relying on Igawa and Pavano coming out of the gate (and rightly so), but starting pitching has not been a problem for this team since Clemens arrived. It's been the offense, and I don't anyone who would have thought offense would be a problem.
The way the team is playing right now, they can beat anyone in the league.
They are seven losses behind Cleveland and Seattle for the Wild Card. Are you really that nervous about either team running away from the Yankees? With the schedules they have I'm not.
Minnesota will be a good second half team, but that will only help the Yankees because they will bring Cleveland back to the pack.
By slotting Igawa into the 5th game after the break, we have maybe 3 more Kei starts to endure before Hughes and/or Karstens are available.
They just took 2 of 3 from a team that can usually beat them by throwing their gloves out onto the field, and they needed everything that Lackey, Shields and K-Rod had in their tanks to get the one game.
Detroit pulls away in the Central, Cleveland and Seattle drift back, the Yanks have a monster July and pass them both by mid-September.
Oh, and Boston - watch your back.
Delusional
Clemens is no savior, and neither will Hughes and Karstens.
You wrote: "The way the team is playing right now, they can beat anyone in the league." Really?
Which team is gonna' show up? The team that scores 12 in a game, or the team that scratches to get one?
Dude, outside of Wang, Clemens, and Pettitte (sort of) our pitching sucks. Bullpen-wise we are a ticking timebomb. Offensively, we are hot and cold. Defensively, we suck. Yeah, that all sends shockwaves through the AL. They are all collectively quaking in their spikes.
Seriously, we will be lucky to finish with 90 wins.
Not delusional
Not sure which games you've been watching, but Clemens has been nothing short of dominant his past two times out. And he's the # 3 man once Pettitte comes back around, which he will.
Moose has been solid as well recently. And Igawa will soon be a distant expensive memory.
In the past seven games they lost to Santana-Neshek and Lackey-Shields-KRod. And both games were winnable. Every other game their offense fired on all cylinders.
The pen is decent enough to get the job done. Proctor looks great after burning his uni, and even Farnsy has been solid his past few times out. Throw in a rejuvenated Viz and the skinny kid with the change plus Mo in the back and that's better than a lot of teams.
Cleveland and Seattle are small timers. If we were chasing Anaheim and Detroit I'd be worried, but teams that never danced before have a tendency to cough it up toward the end.
Since they hit rock bottom at 22-30, they've been playing .611 ball. And that's counting the dreadful 1-7 trip. .611 ball gets them 90 wins, and I think their best baseball is ahead of them.
What's so delusional about that?
Still delusional
Clemens has been solid if not specatular as billed, but unless we put a W in the column, his effort is wasted. As for Moose, he has not been solid. In fact, I'd argue that he is the second most significant drain to the team's chances because he taxes the bullpen so. He simply doesn't pitch deeply. After the 5th inning, you are rolling the dice with him.
The bullpen is going to foresake us. The only pitcher who goes deep on a consistent basis is Wang. Clemens will usually give a solid 7, and I'll even throw in Pettitte. What about 4 and 5?
Mussina and whomever are literally killing our pen, and it will bite us hard.
Farnsworth, Vizcaino? You are crazy to bank on these guys being bullet proof when we need them. You didn't even mention Bruney who can't throw strikes, or Igawa who I fear will end up out there. And Proctor? The poor SOB is going to go the way of Sturtze due to overuse and mis-management.
Seattle isn't a pushover, and you are seriously underestimating the Indians with Sabathia, Carmona and a solid pen.
No.
While I certainly fear the tribe (They've got a great offense with good balance from top to bottom, and so far very solid pitching), but I think it's going to be Detroit again.
They got that Motor City mojo thing happening and I think their pitching with Verlander, Bonderman, and now Rogers is tough to beat.
Sadly, though, I see the Sux taking it all (dammit to hell).
Nope
Moose went seven against Oakland and made one bad pitch over six innings against Minny. He entered that inning with a 2-1 lead on Santana, and Minny's one came with the help of Jeter's error.
I have faith in Moose to build off his last two outings, and at least be as good or better than most #4's out there. That's not asking too much. Check his resume. Check last year's stats.
I'm not banking on Farnsy and Viz, I'm simply saying they have pitched well of late, as has Proctor. Bruney has not, which is why I didn't include him.
I just have a hard time taking any team with Joe Borowski as its closer seriously. Talk about Blowers - at least our blower doesn't pitch the 9th inning. He stinks.
Also important to note that this team (Cleveland) finished the year two seasons ago with both hands wrapped around their necks. And basically gave the Yanks and Boston a personal invitation to the playoffs. They gotta show me they can take the heat of September.
Seattle has the King and pray for rain (but they do have a great pen).
Two unproven teams - seven losses is nothing. There's still 80 games left man.
Have some faith.
Missed my point
We simply cannot afford to lose the 2-1, 3-2 games.
Mussina's resume? Which one. The one where he offset his 93mph fastball with his 80+ knuckle curve, or the one featuring his 86mph fastball. Doesn't matter. Mussina can't be counted on, and I think he will more often tax the pen than rest it.
And you missed mine
Moose threw just as hard, er, soft, last year - again, check his numbers. He can be counted on. If you count the number four starters more reliable than him, I'm not sure you'd make it too far past your first hand.
Hit by the Perfect DL/Slump combo!
#3 - don't forget Minn a few years back; 12 behind on July 15 - still won.
#5 - I think Andy will surprise at 1st; Torre seems to trust him more and more. As with the Milkman, if he has playing time, he'll improve.
I know - dream on! But, hey, whatza baseball fan anyway but a dreamer. Gets us thru every winter NBA season!
by NH Bob on Jul 9, 2007 10:34 AM EDT reply actions
Options and Ramblings
Giambi's return might confuse things a little more than help. With Johnny at DH and the outfield as it has been where does Giambi fit? He's gotta DH. So sits in the oufield? Damon, Matsui and Abreu make waaaay too much money sit on the bench. And Melky, while not amazing at the plate, has played a fantastic centerfield-- nobody else I'd want out there. So what, do you move one of the other three?? And with one of them gone, if Giambi goes down again, is Kevin Thompson the DH? Cairo? Plugging Giambi back into the current lineup is not ideal, unless room can be made, with decent pieces coming back in return.
That's why a move for a guy like Konerko (or another power bat at first) makes sense to me-- if they can get him cheaply, and I know they probably can't. I think it allows them a little more flexiblity, and then they can move one of the OFs for a bull pen arm maybe? Then if Giambi comes back and produces, great. If he goes down, plug Konerko (or the like) at DH, and use Phillips as a fall-back option. Because that's what he is. I want to believe in Phillips, but until he can hit consistantly at the ML level- I can't see him as the answer at first.
Or cheapest off all options... move Abreu or Damon (if you can) and for the fourth OF/ DH #2 option-- dare I say... Bernie Williams? There, I said it. Not a perfect solution, but it hasn't been a perfect season has it?
I think they can make make playoffs, but A LOT has to go right. This team is capable of playing .650-.700 baseball, it is just a matter of will they. I don't think we should count on Hughes, although he could contibute. I just don't want him to comeback too soon. Err on the side of caution with him, and in the end let the standings dictate what they need from him I guess. That's my two cents.
Um
Damon won't be moved. He'll be a left fielder/ 1B the rest of the season and next season.
Bernie Williams? pfft
i know
Fair enough...
but my scenario is worst-case.. and it won't happen. borderline joke even... and yet i defend it. let's end it here. i thank you.
Myers
Myers: 114 AB, .313 OBP (12 BB)
Farns: 138 AB, .353 OBP (16 BB)
Viz: 158 AB, .356 OBP (31 BB)
Bruney: 122 AB, .364 OBP (25 BB)
If you just looked at these numbers you'd say that Myers is the best pitcher, he definitely has the best control. The problem is how he's used- he's faced almost an equal number of righties and lefties (53L, 59R) but most of the righties have been mop up work, the lefties are key spots or several in a row. Here are his LR breakdowns:
Vs left: 53 AB, .397 OBP
Vs. right: 59 AB, .242 OBP (maybe you'd argue these are mostly in unimportant situations, but guys still try to get hits during mop-up.)
Now, the other pitchers are just as bad against lefties (Farns .408, Viz .380, Bruney .448!) but they've faced a lower percentage of lefties. Joe needs to realize that the team just doesn't have a lefty specialist- they have a bunch of pitchers who all suck against lefties, but according to the numbers Myers is no worse of an overall pitcher than any of the other guys. I don't know who you do use against a key lefty, maybe Villone (.282 OBP, .323 vs. lefties) can get his shit together so he can reprise his role as a Joe burn-out case.
We all know about the biza
*should read
Replace Myers
I don't know his exact numbers against lefties, but I remember him going right after Ortiz several times early this season and succeeding - none of that nibbling bullcrap - and that was good enough for me.
Henn is actually better than a lefty specialist, and he's definitely more valuable on the roster than Myers.
Myers stinks.
I'm in
- Catchers? Saltalamachia. (Just throwing him out there).
- Sure. I had lunch with Elvis over the weekend, and he believes the Yankees can do it.
- 87
- Like MG says, we won't mail it in, but the only reason to be excited with this year's edition of the Yankees is Arod, Jeter, Posada and Hughes. I'd also like to see Cano break .300.
- Not much. Not this season. He'll likely get knocked around abit. I'm excited that he will have the legendary presence of Clemens to guide him the rest of the season. That to me is the best part of the Hughes experience in 2007.
Guess what...this whole talk is bull
ditto abreu--just let him walk after the year, [PLEASE, BRIAN, READ THIS--DON'T PICK UP HIS OPTION!!!!!!!]
DFAing Myers--he and Farnsworth can be traded
please...we're not getting much at the deadline, though we can speculate and try and hope...
answers
- They will improve significantly but they need help. Boston, Detroit, and Cleveland are all very good teams. An injury or two to key players on one of them may be needed.
- 91
- The attention on A-Rod as he chases the "real" single season home run record, Maris' 61.
- 5-3 3.75 era
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