Now the deal is supposedly off
[editor's note, by jscape2000] frontpaged
According to Yammering Hank, who said the Twins were asking too much. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are still in the hunt and will probably get away with giving up less than the Yankees would have, of course.
Best case scenario is Santana stays in MIN one more season, then the Yankees outbid everybody when he hits the FA market. Worst case scenario, of course, would be him winding up in BOS for the next 5-7 years.
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Haren
I vote: let's go to battle with the kids next year. The future is now!
by marcbouch9 on Dec 4, 2007 12:11 PM EST 0 recs
couldnt agree more
by Soriano NY 12 on
Dec 4, 2007 12:16 PM EST
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I read somewhere..
i would still be shocked though if melky is on the opening day roster.. i think he gets moved in one deal or another.. to atlanta for soriano or the like.
by NumberSeven on Dec 4, 2007 12:19 PM EST 0 recs
Haren's going
That leaves 3 options:
- Keep the kids (whoo!)
- Deal for a lower tier pitcher: Sheets, Harden
- Deal a bat for a pitchers.
by randomize on Dec 4, 2007 12:24 PM EST 0 recs
Speaking of
Sheets and Harden will cost too much, but the Cubs may keen on it. Of the three, I'd prefer to take the risk on Prior.
by marcbouch9 on
Dec 4, 2007 12:28 PM EST
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Ehh..
I'd send Damon to Texas if he was okay with it. Try and pry Teagarden and one of their lower level bats away.
I'd send Matsui to the Dodgers if possible for a young IF bat (not Loney... maybe LaRoche? Colletti seems to hate LaRoche for some reason) or relief arms (not Broxton obviously).
The starters are fine I think. Everyone basically knows what I'd do with option #3, so I won't repeat it. :P
by randomize on
Dec 4, 2007 12:31 PM EST
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It was the "and something"
I don't think we could get what you suggest for Damon or Matsui.
by marcbouch9 on
Dec 4, 2007 12:42 PM EST
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Really?
They have too many catchers. Salty, Teagarden, Laird, Max Something in the minors.
Dodgers: LaRoche is a slim possibility. They don't play him for some reason despite his sick minor league numbers. I'd be content with a bullpen arm or two from the minors for Matsui.
by randomize on
Dec 4, 2007 12:47 PM EST
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I'd take
My guess is Salty moves to 1B. He rakes.
by marcbouch9 on
Dec 4, 2007 1:04 PM EST
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Salty's a beast :)
Red Sox have apparently increased their offer one more time.
They're still not offering both Lester and Ellsbury though.
If Santana goes to the Sox, hopefully it'll teach Hank to keep his fat mouth shut and let Cashman handle things.
What a moron.
by randomize on
Dec 4, 2007 1:09 PM EST
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Prior-itize
Let's focus on building a better pen!
by Ronster22 on
Dec 4, 2007 1:56 PM EST
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Depends on
If all he costs is a few decent prospects (as in, none of the big 3, AJax, Tabata, Betances), you'd have to take that deal.
True he's an FA but there's no guarantee that he'll hit FA. How many good young pitchers in the last decade have hit FA?
Pedro? Zito (although you can argue if he's good or not)?
I can't think of many off the top of my head. They all get signed or traded. Peavy's not going to hit FA. Neither will Bonderman. Or Sabathia.
You need a perfect storm situation. The pitcher needs to have a no-trade. The GM needs to be competent. There can't be a firesale. The cost in prospects has to be too much for any team etc.
Santana is close to filling all those conditions. The prospect cost, for the Sox, seems low.
Funny how Lester, Crisp, Lowrie and Masterson gets it done for the Sox, but Hughes (younger/better than Lester), Melky (Younger/better than Crisp) and a 3rd guy isn't enough.
Hank's mouthing off probably had some effect.
by randomize on
Dec 4, 2007 12:36 PM EST
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Hank probably did screw the pooch
by docgonzo on
Dec 4, 2007 1:13 PM EST
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I think
Sigh. I knew the Yankees needed to go into rebuild mode.
by randomize on
Dec 4, 2007 1:37 PM EST
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Re:
If I were the NYY at think point, I would cave on the 3rd player in the deal. Give them Jackson if thats what they want. If BOS gets Santana you can kiss the AL East goodbye for the next 3 years, at least. Jackson is only a A+ level prospect at this point, right? Is it worth letting BOS get Santana over a A+ level prospect?
Who could compete against:
Santana/Beckett/Matsuzaka/Schilling/Buchholz?
That is just insane. If it were me, I would give up the prospect to prevent that, no question.
by KevinV on
Dec 4, 2007 1:41 PM EST
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No
by bxgrl1 on
Dec 4, 2007 1:53 PM EST
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No...
Cashman put his bid on the table. The Yanks are willing to pay Hughes, Melky and a mid-level prospect for 1 year of Santana.
If the Twins prefer Lester, Crisp, Lowrie, Masterson + one more then that's that.
Let the Red Sox send away 4 good prospects and Crisp for Santana.
Let them pay 6/150, 7/170 for Johan. And then rework Beckett's deal so he isn't making 1/3 of Santana's deal.
If they rework Beckett you figure he jumps to ~18-20 million. I also imagine they'll extend him... say 4 years?
They can have him. The Yanks can build around the trinity, get some bullpen help, wait until the OF kids come up and sign Tex next year.
Hopefully they keep the pick this year and draft well (they usually do).
by randomize on
Dec 4, 2007 1:57 PM EST
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Response:
If Santana goes to BOS because the NYY did not give up a prospect, the NYY will live to regret it mightily.
Lets look at the points you made here:
- For 1 year of Santana? That's silly. Any deal with either BOS or NY would have required a contract negotiation window with Sanatana to get a deal done. Getting that deal done is the only way either team makes the trade. Period.
- Look at it from MIN's perspective. Crisp and Melky are about a wash. The "mid level" NYY prospect would probably be about the same as the extra prospect BOS is inculding.
- That means the deal comes down to Lester/Lowrie/Masterson vs Hughes. Hughes is easily the best player of those 4, but can you not see that 3 good young high ceiling players is better for a rebuilding francise than 1?
- Why would they rework Beckett's deal? What is this the NFL? He will get his money when his current deal is finished.
by KevinV on
Dec 4, 2007 2:17 PM EST
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melky and crisp
And hes not nearly as pesky.
by seanp23 on
Dec 4, 2007 2:33 PM EST
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I don't know about that.
Either way neither is very expensive.
by KevinV on
Dec 4, 2007 2:48 PM EST
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You were the one
I think melky is worth more though because Crisp is out of job in boston anyway with the rise of ellsbury. If he isnt traded I would expect melky to be the starting centerfielder for the yanks. Yet another example of how the red sox are getting a sweatheart of a deal. The twins are demanding crucial pieces of the yankees opening day roster and are making nowhere near the same demands of the sox.
by seanp23 on
Dec 4, 2007 3:38 PM EST
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Well
Melky is worth more to NY than Crisp is to BOS, that is true. But that does not mean that Melky is more valuable to Coco to a 3rd team. Just because BOS has Ellbury and NY doesn't, doesn't mean that Melky is suddenly more valuable.
BOS has more pieces that MIN can use. It's all the better for BOS if they don't come from their 25 man roster. The fact that BOS has a deeper roster than NY does not make the deal unfair. Why would MIN take less from BOS? That makes zero sense.
by KevinV on
Dec 4, 2007 3:58 PM EST
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I did not say
I still think melky is better than crisp, if marginally. Given his age and price he seems, to me, more attractive than crisp.
by seanp23 on
Dec 4, 2007 4:12 PM EST
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sort of agree
by NumberSeven on
Dec 4, 2007 4:21 PM EST
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No
We have to do what is best (short and long term) for both payroll and performance.
This hardly guarantees the Red Sox a dynasty. The Twins are asking less of the Red Sox than they're asking of the Yankees because the Red Sox can better meet the Twins' immediate needs.
If we can't get Santana for a reasonable price, then we can't. If it knocks a few more 'fans' off the Yankee bandwagon, I'll hardly cry about.
Let's be an underdog; 1996 was a lot of fun.
by jscape2000 on
Dec 4, 2007 3:07 PM EST
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agreed Kevin 000
Santana 18 wins +
Beckett 18 wins +
Dice-K 16 wins +
Schilling 12 wins +
Buchholtz 12 wins +
Bullpen 20 wins
= 96 wins +
Wang 18
Pettitte 15 (if we're lucky)
Hughes 16
Kennedy 14
Moose 10-12
Bullpen 20
= 93-95 wins
....assuming Moose's arm doesn't fall off, Kennedy and Hughes can last 200 innings, etc. Once you get in the post season it gets worse: Santana/Beckett 2x each in the first round, 3x each in round 2. Doesn't bode well for anyone else....
by cinco64 on
Dec 4, 2007 2:00 PM EST
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I agree Cinco
The NYY will be a very good team. But BOS would be an absolute superpower. The NYY could kiss the division goodbye for the foreseeable future.
And I do not like the prospect of my Indians facing an improved BOS team in the ALCS. Do not want.
by KevinV on
Dec 4, 2007 2:33 PM EST
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I agree....
by cinco64 on
Dec 4, 2007 3:35 PM EST
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yanks will
by miracle96 on
Dec 4, 2007 4:42 PM EST
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Let my people go!
by KevinV on
Dec 4, 2007 4:49 PM EST
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Facing that staff for 18 games
Speaking of which, if JS does head to Beantown, we can take solace in a couple things:
1.) Schilling is on his last legs and may well have a rough season.
2.) Despite impressive outings in the postseason, Dice-K wasn't all that with his near 5 ERA; he has control issues (which of course can be worked out) and teams have had a year to see him - hopefully he'll go the way of all other Japanese pitchers before him: into the crapper.
3.) There's a chance that Beckett, good as he's always been, may revert to 2006 form - a small hope, but it's there.
4.) Santana has been terrible at Fenway.
by docgonzo on
Dec 4, 2007 2:03 PM EST
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Couldn't agree more
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 2:31 PM EST
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Jeez...
Hughes: In his absolute best case he is Santana.
Melky: Mediocre and replaceable.
Horne: Good Prospect.
Marquez: Good Prospect.
Is that all it takes to get Santana?
I agree whoever made that decision should absolutely lose their job. They were already willing to part with Melky and Hughes. They basically made this statement:
(Horne + Marquez) - ("mid-level prospect") > (Santana with NYY) - (Santan with BOS)
That's just bad decision making in my eyes.
by KevinV on
Dec 4, 2007 2:40 PM EST
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You are too kind
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 2:49 PM EST
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I think you are correct
I confess right away that I am no expert on Hughes, and maybe I saw him hurt, but I just don't think he has the heart to be great.
Lester is a maybe. Plenty of heart. And when he fully recovers from his illness, his velocity is up to 93-94 on a routine basis. He is a different pitcher than you saw most of last year. Has some lingering "nibbling" problems, but that may go away with experience and more velocity.
Losing Masterson hurts, from Sox perspective. The rest are spare parts.
I am very torn about the Sox getting Santana. I am not confident that his health will hold up, and it is a ton of money.
Maybe the deciding factor for me is the close relationship between Santana and Big Papi. Never can have too much morale.
by Frank Malzone on
Dec 4, 2007 2:50 PM EST
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You should be ecstatic
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 2:55 PM EST
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Parts?
I wouldn't worry about the money. You have Schilling going away after this yearm that frees up plenty of cash to make up for Santana's biggie paycheck. All you will have to replace then is what your 5th starter? How hard can that be?
I am interested in your take on Lowrie though, he seems to be a big part of this package.
by KevinV on
Dec 4, 2007 3:04 PM EST
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Lowrie
by jscape2000 on
Dec 4, 2007 3:13 PM EST
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Lowrie is more valuable to Twins
Lowrie probably moves to second in the Majors. Sox have Pedroia
Lowrie can hit, but he won't challenge Lugo
from Sox perpective, he is a spare part
I hope the Angels swoop in and take Santana. Too many eggs in one basket with him
I prefer to send Coco to Texas for a catcher. If Veritek goes down, the Sox are in a world of hurt, dynasty talk notwithstanding
by Frank Malzone on
Dec 4, 2007 3:30 PM EST
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Kennedy/Horne
by BobbyNYC on Dec 4, 2007 2:21 PM EST 0 recs
Not even close
Beane would demand:
Hughes/IPK/(Holmes or Tabata)
or something of that ilk. The NYY do not have the stomach for a Haren trade.
Billy Beane is just fising. He'd rather trade Blanton to one of the runner-ups for Santana.
by KevinV on
Dec 4, 2007 2:26 PM EST
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Holmes
by SenorSwanky on
Dec 4, 2007 2:31 PM EST
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That's all, folks
Since the Twins want to finish this deal today, we could be looking at facing Santana for the next 5-7 years. Good times.
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2007/12/yanks_pull_out_of_trade_talks.html
by docgonzo on Dec 4, 2007 4:34 PM EST 0 recs
Terrible news
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 4:37 PM EST
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If the Twins
by jscape2000 on
Dec 4, 2007 5:50 PM EST
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Two ways
Let me also go on record as saying that turning down a Hughes/Melky/Horne/Marquez package (and I trust Olney on that news) for Johan is hands down the worst move of the Cashman era, blowing the Pavano and Igawa signings out of the water. The man should have been fired years ago and this is just further evidence of that.
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 6:01 PM EST
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But you're missing the point
That's what we've begged them to do for years. I won't fault them for it.
Furthermore "Theo could smartly sit back and wait for [Hank] to piss the Twins off" ?
So you think that because Hank openned his yapper the Twins decided to exchange the best player they've ever developed for a lesser package of prospects from the Red Sox?
by jscape2000 on
Dec 4, 2007 6:07 PM EST
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Hank opened his mouth
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 6:16 PM EST
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Hank
You don't deal with other likes that. You sit and wait.
You say the Yankees had a limit. That's fine. The Sox had a limit too. They told the Twins that only one of their three was going and as of now they've stuck to that.
The Yankees should've done the same.
What a moron. He's going to drive this team into the ground if someone doesn't talk sense into him.
by randomize on
Dec 4, 2007 6:25 PM EST
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Who attacked the Twins?
by LateInningRelief on
Dec 4, 2007 6:34 PM EST
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He set a deadline
Agents and scouts have been saying the same thing (but anonymously). The Santana trade has been holding up the A's, the O's, and every free agent pitcher on the market.
by jscape2000 on
Dec 4, 2007 6:36 PM EST
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Yeah, I don't get
by LateInningRelief on
Dec 4, 2007 6:41 PM EST
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Really?
Basically Cashman stepped away over a 5th starter in Horne.
by randomize on
Dec 4, 2007 7:41 PM EST
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Indeed
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 8:03 PM EST
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Okay, then
by LateInningRelief on
Dec 4, 2007 8:22 PM EST
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You completely missed the point.
Said pitcher is available for trade. This happens once a decade BTW.
The Yankees want this pitcher.
So what authority do the Yankees have of setting deadlines and burning bridges in the media?
Look at the Red Sox. They kept their mouth shut and waited. They slowly increased their offer, but stuck to their limits.
The Yankees' limits were simple:
Only one of Hughes/Kennedy.
No Tabata/Jackson/Betances/Horne (WTF on Horne?!?) if Hughes is included.
So work off that. You still have Marquez, Kontos, McAllister, Miranda etc to work with.
This is Santana. Not some washed up, mediocre pitcher. Santana at 28?!?
Jeebus Cashman. Losing a 28 yr old Santana for Horne.
It's like... turning down Pedro in his prime because you didn't want to give up Casey freaking Fossum.
by randomize on
Dec 4, 2007 9:44 PM EST
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Don't believe everything you read;
Who was burning bridges in the media? If you think Stein's deadline was burning bridges, you've never been involved in a negotiation. Negotiating 101: Listen to half of what the other guy is saying because he's blowing smoke either in your face or up you ass.
Tell me why the Sox get to set limits: No Bucholz at all, and Ellsbury and Lester can't be in the same deal, while the Yanks are expected to just bend over.
Also, FYI, the deal ain't completed by the Sox. IMO, there are two things that continue to govern this situation:
1.) There is no way that the Yankees walk away from a Hughes/Melky/Horne for Santana package. No way. That is so incredibly unbelieavable that, well, I don't believe it.
2.) There is no way that the Twins finalize a deal with the Sox without checking in with the Yankees first. No way.
Here's Hank's potential statement for after he returns to the negotiating table: "Well, the Twins came back to use before finalizing things with Boston, said they genuinely wanted to work with us, get this deal done for Hughes/Melky/Horne/Plus. Apparently, they just needed the extra time to run through the process & they were adamant in saying it wasn't about playing us against Boston, but maximizing a situation in which they're giving up a potential HOFer. It's a tough spot for those guys."
This is how the game is played.
by LateInningRelief on
Dec 4, 2007 10:14 PM EST
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I don't believe it
Plus the Yankees set their own limits:
Only one of Hughes/Kennedy. No Joba at all.
If Hughes is taken, no Jackson/Tabata/Betances/Horne.
See the Yanks had limits too.
Except they set or blew smoke about one more: You have till Monday? What?!?
How does that help? If the Yanks hold to that limit, it puts Boston in a more favorable position. If they don't then they lose a lot of standing. Already people question the Yankees' hard-line stances after the ARod fiasco. Heck ESPN was openly dismissing Hank's time limits.
by randomize on
Dec 4, 2007 10:26 PM EST
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Hank is becoming the joke of baseball
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 10:30 PM EST
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Pfisty, you've missed this one
by LateInningRelief on
Dec 4, 2007 10:34 PM EST
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True
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 10:38 PM EST
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You can bet that when
It ain't over till it's over.
by LateInningRelief on
Dec 4, 2007 10:32 PM EST
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Thank you
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 8:01 PM EST
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Feinsand
by marcbouch9 on
Dec 4, 2007 9:49 PM EST
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Understood
by pfistyunc on
Dec 4, 2007 10:02 PM EST
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It looks
I just feel like the twins are asking for two much from our major league squad. If we trade hughes kennedy and melky then we have lost our starting cf and we have replaced two starting pitchers with one-he happens to be amazing but he only pitches once every 5 days. Someone else said it better and earlier; the dynasty never had an ace, it had depth.
by seanp23 on
Dec 4, 2007 10:54 PM EST
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That last comment is very true
Only problem with the Yanks/Santana situation is that we won't see the full fruition of that depth for a couple years, at least. Santana is now, man.
by docgonzo on
Dec 5, 2007 12:24 AM EST
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Yes, and if Santana goes to
by LateInningRelief on
Dec 5, 2007 8:14 AM EST
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