Anyway, what really killed us in the regular season was that horrendous start and all those injuries in April and May.  It's a real testimonial to the team that with all that, we still finished only 2 out.

Andy's back in the fold.  Santana or no, the middle relief needs work, especially if Joba's in the rotation.  When that's done, we can talk about '08.

The problem in recent years has been pitching.  The team has consistently ranked high on offense (1st or 2nd in runs scored each of the past few years) but the pitching staff has usually been league average (i.e. in 2007, the Yanks ranked 7th in fewest runs allowed).  

I don't think it's unrealistically optimistic to think this team can surrender 50 fewer runs next year.  This would likely rank them somewhere around 3rd or 4th in the pitching department.  (I go by total runs allowed because you don't win or lose games based on ERA).

To accomplish that, here's what needs to happen:

Without Johan Santana:

Pettitte & Wang combine for 400 innings at last year's level - 4.11 runs allowed per 9 innings - This is very probable.

The Trinity combines for 300 innings and 4.2 runs allowed per 9 innings - I feel this is a middle of the road projection; it's far from a certainty, but realistic.  

Rivera/Farnsworth/Vizcaino combine for 200 innings at least years level - 4.25 runs per 9 - Mo is likely to rebound, Farnsworth(less) is who he is, as is Viz.  This is a reasonable expection.  

A trio of Ohlendorf/Britton/Veras/Sanchez/Whomever else needs combine to throw 150 innings at 4.2 runs per 9 - This is probably what makes or breaks the goal.  Britton could do a lot to help by duplicating his performance for the '06 Orioles.  Again, this is probably a middle of the road projection.  These guys could be lights out, or terrible.

Everyone else (Mussina, Edwar, Igawa, my grandmother) needs to combine for 400 innings at no worse than 5.35 runs per 9.  Essentially, they need to just be league average.  

Of course, with Santana, you're adding a net of 100 innings (200 by Santana - 100 by one of the Trinity) at an elite level, so the burden is reduced on everybody else.  

I don't think any of these projections are outrageous.  You can expect the offense to regress, but even if they score 75 fewer runs than last year, you could win up with 890 scored/725 allowed, which means potentially a 100 win team who is 1st in runs scored and 3rd or 4th in runs allowed.  That is the kind of balanced team that can go toe to toe with the rest of the league in the postseason.