Does reliever over-use lead to poor subsequent performance?

by Ronster22 on Dec 19, 2007 3:29 PM EST in New York Yankees News

For all you pitching wonks out there, I just read a fascinating (and eye-opening) study regarding relief pitcher overuse--something everyone in Yankeedom has first-hand knowledge of.

Mitchel Lichtman over at The Hardball Times quotes a Nov. 30 article in the Philadelphia Daily News by Paul Hagen. In it Hagen questions Braves senior advisor, former big-league manager, and a former coach of mine Jim Fregosi, asking him what his take was about relievers who have a good year followed by a bad year or vice versa:

Says Fregosi:

The biggest reason is, when they have a good year, they're overused. When they have a bad year, they're not used at all. So then they can come back and have a good year. It's that simple. They just get tired from overuse. If they're in 80 games and they warm up 120 times, that's a lot. The only one [teams] really take care of in the bullpen anymore is the closer. They always bring him in to start the ninth and if he pitches 50, 60 innings, that's where he's at. He's in 60 games where you have a chance to win.

I would have tended to agree with Fregosi, however the study suggests otherwise. That's what I found particularly fascinating.

It's a lengthy read, but I strongly recommend--especially considering we have yet to launch PA's Book of the Month Club.

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three card monty of studies

way too much math for me.
1970 to 2007? I think that time span is just way too long. Relievers are used very differently in these different eras. A 37 year study of anything in baseball is just too long.
I just can't agree the conclusion of the study. I tend to see it the way Fregosi sees it without the smoke and mirror equations.
I'm sure I would be able to dissect it more if I knew more about the methodology but not being a propeller head, I can't speak to that.

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Dec 19, 2007 8:52 PM EST reply actions

I really like this article

I understand your complaint about the changes in the game since 1970, but that's already less than a third of the history of baseball. And by limiting the study to players who didn't make any starts in consecutive years he's really narrowed his sample size.

My critique is that this fails to take into account that the managers often act irrationally, allowing players to pitch on reputation or experience even after they cease to perform.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Dec 20, 2007 3:19 AM EST up reply actions

oh

you mean some managers have their "go to" guys even if the pitcher has sucked game after game?

Never saw that before. ;)

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Dec 20, 2007 5:12 AM EST up reply actions

Hmmmm

You wouldn't be thinking of that former Yankees manager ... what's his name, would you? Actually, that was my only issue with the study. Managers don't have a set book that they follow, and most manage on hunches and guts. Too bad those hunches and guts often include going with guys who were great three seasons before ...

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Dec 20, 2007 9:11 AM EST up reply actions

I wonder if there's a way

to study only managers who managed at least 5 consecutive years, break down their patterns, and then examine the effect their usage had on the relievers who played for them over multiple seasons. If there was no visible difference between the rebounding of a Bobby Cox reliever vs a Joe Torre reliever, then we'd really be getting somewhere.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Dec 20, 2007 11:10 AM EST up reply actions