ARod- Arbitration?

by SP on Nov 7, 2007 12:50 PM EST Comment 11 comments

The Yanks are offering Arod arbitration, mostly so they can get the two draft picks when he signs with another team. Pete Abraham says it's 99-1 against that Boras would accept arbitration, but if teams are holding firm against the $300 million / 10 year demands, there's a chance it could happen. What would happen if Arod went to arbitration?

As I understand it, if a team offers arbitration (deadline end of November) and a player accepts (deadline a week later), they continute to negotiate until mid January. They must reach a deal at least for the next year, although they could come to a longer term agreement. If they fail to come to terms, a 3 judge panel, in mid-February, considers offers from each side for a 1 year contract. (Final offers are submitted mid-Jan, but negotiations can continute until the hearing.) The interesting part is that it is "Final Offer" arbitration, in which the judges pick one side's number, no compromise or middle ground. It's a game of chicken- offer too little and the player gets their inflated number; ask for too much, and the team wins with a lowball offer.
The judges may consider these criteria:

The contribution of the player during the previous season
The length and consistency of the player's career
The record of the player's previous compensation
The performance of the player's club during the previous season
Any physical or mental defects the player may have
Comparable baseball salaries

Note that the opted-out years are NOT a consideration (#3 says past compensation, which I think would exclude a voided future contract.) Resources of the team are also excluded from consideration. For a player with 500+ HRs, coming off an MVP season, who just made $27M, without whom a team would not have made the playoffs, what numbers does each side go with? Would Boras pull the trigger here, if he thinks he can get a better deal after another MVP-caliber year? If he believes his mumbo-jumbo about Arod being worth $35 million, let's see him try to convince the judges.

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I'm not sure

how much of this morning's Murray Chass column
to take seriously, but the way he paints it, Boras has not been getting anywhere near the nibbles he thought he would. You never know. He may go to arbitration out of necessity.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Nov 7, 2007 1:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It happened with Maddux

I could see Boras putting in his $35 million dollar number and Cash coming back with $25 million (Arod's average, and the highest salary in MLB).

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 7, 2007 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

$25 vs. $35

Who would win with those numbers? I have to think the $25- when you're the highest paid player, it's hard to argue for a 40% raise. Or can they count Clemens' pro-rated salary of $28 to argue for a raise?

by SP on Nov 7, 2007 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They'd nudge it higher than

25, maybe 27. And Boras wouldn't throw in at 35, especially since if he's gone to arbitration it's because he realizes he way overvalued his client.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Nov 7, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think they can use 56 HR and 156 RBI

to ask for a raise. Plus, in arbitration aren't you guaranteed a certain percent raise anyway?

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 7, 2007 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think so

You're protected from more than a 20% pay cut.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 7, 2007 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, that's right

I knew there was a rule that mentioned a certain percentage. Sadly, I wrote a research paper on arbitration in law school and have already forgetten the basic rules.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 7, 2007 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet as it would be- no way

I looked at Chase's article. Here is what I think.

There are a number of teams interested in Arod who are saying they are not. Boras is trying to drum up some competition for Arod as far in advance of making offers as possible. The clubs understand and are trying to be as blaise as possible.

This was a year when the team with biggest payroll struggled and several teams with small payrolls did well. It is a year when the big boys have their own stars to resign. Not a great year for Arod.

But, can it be bad enough for him to accept a short contract? Can it be bad enough for him to accept arbitration? I cannot believe it.

I think Chicago (Cubs) is more interested than they've let on. Ditto Boston. Ditto both LA teams. If Arod is out there how can the Mets stay out?

There will be enough bid so Arod and Boras do not have to eat as much crow as accepting arbitration.

It looks like they won't get $350,000,000 over 12 years. But Arod had a MVP year, how can he think next year, or a few years out will be better.

Arod will get a raise over his old contract and 7 or so years. If a dark horse comes in, like Texas did last time it will be a lot more. Arod may end up looking like a steal for the club that gets him.

I'd love Arod to accept Arb and come back. Chances are strongly against it.

We need a third baseman.

But..... I'd stay with WB before I'd trade any of the Trinity. To bad we backed ourselves into a corner and cannot bid for Arod.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Nov 7, 2007 2:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

All 30 teams are interested in A-Rod

Paying the crazy prices that Boras is floating around is another story. I'm sure there's some posturing involved, but I don't believe the market is as rosy for the Boras-priced A-Rod. I think he walked away from his best offer, though somebody else could, of course, over-spend like Hicks did.

I just don't think that's going to happen. I think there is a sense that the $252M contract was aberrant. Remember: The top 2 contracts in MLB history, A-Rod's and Manny Ramirez's, were signed in 2000, which was a long, long time ago.

All that being said, I agree that arbitration is a long, long shot.

Stay tuned...

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Nov 7, 2007 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think owners

are going on record as saying his price is ridiculous. Whether that's posturing or a pass, I don't know. I think they are trying to make Scottie sweat but I think he knows it.

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Nov 7, 2007 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Someone will overpay for A-Rod

It's all a matter of who will do so. Whether A-Rod gets the years he's likely asking for is a different story.

In the highly unlikely event that A-Rod does accept arbitration, he will answer the 3B question, which would be a good thing. He still provides excellent production there, and it's one less position to worry about this offseason.

by Willton on Nov 7, 2007 10:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs