So Much Depends Upon a Red Wheel Barrow

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Wang Hughes IPK Moose Joba |
Wang Pettitte Hughes IPK Moose |
If Pettitte re-signs, I'm leaving Joba in the minors where the Yankees can monitor his pitch counts and his innings more carefully.
If Pettitte re-signs, we'll be able to hold Joba back as the first reserve so that he can pitch deeper into the season. If it were my call, he'd pitch 120-130 innings as a starter, and the last 25 innings or so out of the bullpen.
While the official schedule obviously hasn't been released yet, some enterprising fans have pieced the schedule together from other teams' official releases.
As you can see, the tradition of starting the season slowly ends in 2008. The Yanks will play 19 straight games from 4/2-4/20 (they'll play 20 straight later).
If Pettitte re-signs we'll have the depth to make it through another grueling season with a minimal number of Igawa sightings.
If Pettitte resigns will match up 1-4 against any staff in baseball.
Hopefully the Yankees will apply the full court press as soon as the ink is dry on the Arod and Mariano deals, because I think the Yankee farm is a bad matches for the pitching rich (and hitting poor) Twins or the rebuilding A's.
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Comments
How to use Joba
It may make perfect sense to start the year with the rotation Wang, Mussina, Andy, Hughes, Kennedy. I say this because I'm confident we will have plenty of injuries. I do not know what is the right way to use Joba. And, I am worried about it. I just know the problem does not get better by pitching in the minors.
I am pretty sure the Yankee brains are worrying about this now. I'll be interested to hear what they have to say on the subject.
by Cbeck3 on Nov 19, 2007 10:49 PM EST 0 recs
I agree
by SenorSwanky on
Nov 19, 2007 11:31 PM EST
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I don't like the bullpen idea
If you look at Brian Bannister, who had a great rookie year for the Royals, he started 27 games and threw 165IP. He's a few years older than Joba, but I think we could expect 150IP out of Joba based on that. If we could also get 175 out IPK and Hughes, we should be fine. I mentioned signing Joe Kennedy a week or so ago and I'm sticking to that. He'd be a nice spot-starter or long man to plug in when the youngsters need to come out.
by marcbouch9 on
Nov 20, 2007 8:57 AM EST
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Pettitte is a must!
1.) Get 200 innings from Andy Pettitte
2.) Get 200 innings from Chien-Ming Wang
3.) Get a total of 300 innings from IPK, Hughes, Joba
4.) Get 120 innings from Mike Mussina, not as good as he was in 2006 but not as bad as he was in 2007.
5.) Get 70 innings each from Mariano Rivera and Luis Vizcaino.
That's roughly 2/3 of your total innings pitched by a group of guys where the worst of them projects as league-average.
I suspect that if Pettitte does not resign, we will have a similar year to '07 - lots of runs, and a huge gap between the top of your pitching staff and the bottom of it. Hopefully they take a bullpen by committee approach until some guys start to distinguish themselves too.
by kuri3460 on Nov 19, 2007 11:04 PM EST 0 recs
To win we need MORE
Joba pitched 112.1 last year, IPK pitched 165.1, Hughes pitched 72 because of the injury, but he went 146 in 06.
So, in 07 they pitched 350 innings. If they each only increase 30 that gives us 440. but I think we can look for, IPK 195, Phil 180, Joba 145. That's 520. That's what we need from those 3. 500+ innings.
We'll see.
by Cbeck3 on
Nov 20, 2007 1:08 AM EST
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Are you nuts?
by ETVal on Nov 19, 2007 11:08 PM EST 0 recs
i gotta agree
by NumberSeven on
Nov 19, 2007 11:32 PM EST
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I felt that way a month ago
1) Joba can not pitch as many innings as Hughes and IPK.
2) They would like to use Joba as a starter.
3) They will not let any of the Trinity serve as Ramiro Mendoza and bounce between starting and relief.
They could use Joba as a starter and move him into the pen at some point, but if they want to be sure that there are bullets in the gun come September and October and they have a healthy 5 coming out of Spring Training, I think he will be in the minors.
As a point of reference, Hughes threw about 30 innings a month. That would use up Joba's innings limit by the end of August. Joba threw a little more than 10 innings a month as a reliever. That means moving him out of the rotation on August 1.
That'll only be easy to do if there's someone brought in to fill that hole in the rotation and there are no other injuries.
From a PR point of view (with the average fan, not the die-hards like us), it's far easier for Cashman to say "You'll see Joba in May" than to say, "We're shutting him down" on September 21st.
by jscape2000 on
Nov 19, 2007 11:44 PM EST
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Huh???
Normally you are dead on. But on this thread, you are so off base you got picked off. Sorry.
I would never start Joba in the minors--unless he's rehabbing an injury. He's already proven that he's got the stuff. If you are so concerned about his innings, monitor them from the MLB mounds.
If Pettitte comes back, I would drop Mussina to the situational guy. Since that isn't likely to happen, I suspect IPK will be the odd man out.
I think you need to step away from the keyboard and watch some of the parade, eat some turkey and watch football. It will refocus your usually spot-on perspective.
by Ronster22 on
Nov 20, 2007 10:56 AM EST
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Have to agree
by pfistyunc on
Nov 20, 2007 11:09 AM EST
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When did I say that Joba should not be in
by garp on
Nov 20, 2007 11:47 AM EST
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John is in favor
That is why Joba was put into the bullpen this year, because he was rapidly approaching the limit the organization put on him. There are four solutions to the problem as I see it.
1 forget about the limit and hope for the best. (This isn't really a solution, but I suppose its still a way of handling the situation.)
2 Start Joba in the rotation. Pitch him until he gets to his innings limit and then shut him down and send him home.
3 Start Joba in the roation. Pitch him until he gets near his innings limit and then switch him into the bullpen for the last month or month and a half so he is still being useful to the team.
4 Start Joba in the minor leagues. We can control his innings strictly there and plan it out so that once he is called up he can pitch every 5 days till the end of the season.
by Edwantsacracker on
Nov 20, 2007 12:28 PM EST
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Nardi has said...
Hughes should be around 170 and IPK is mostly unlimited, given his previous counts.
by B on
Nov 20, 2007 2:20 PM EST
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jscape
by Soriano NY 12 on Nov 19, 2007 11:36 PM EST 0 recs
It's funny
I really appreciate that this board has such an active membership that everyone dives into the nuances of my posts.
But my main point (and one I should have made clearer) is that Andy will effect the season far more than the potential 35 games he'd start.
by jscape2000 on
Nov 19, 2007 11:48 PM EST
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I got the answer
Wang, Pettite, Hughes, IPK, Moose, Joba.
Keeps the innings down, old man Moose and Pettite stay fresh.
by kingrover on Nov 19, 2007 11:47 PM EST 0 recs
Not bad
by Cbeck3 on
Nov 20, 2007 1:11 AM EST
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Bad idea
by Willton on
Nov 21, 2007 12:44 AM EST
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Oops
by Willton on
Nov 21, 2007 12:46 AM EST
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Girardi
The Yanks will use a five man rotation. That you can take to the bank.
I will be curious to see how Girardi handles the 4 players for 3 everyday roles situation with regard to Cabrera, Damon, Matsui and Giambi.
With Torre certain patterns developed where he would play his favorites. Now it's a whole new ballgame.
And dare I say it, but the whole that Joba left when he allegedly left his role in the bullpen is still a gaping one. Is it really THAT bad of an idea to leave him there for another year?
by matthaggs on
Nov 21, 2007 2:18 AM EST
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It is that bad an idea
Another is how too easily for fans (and the media) to get caught up in "he did well before" (see Spencer, Shane; 1999).
Another is 160 innings are worth more than 80 innings.
A final reason is that the Yankee bullpen isn't as far from above average as we're inclined to think.
Three of the four top pens in MLB (Bos, Cle, Ana, SD by my count) all added at least one surprisingly successful guy in 2007: Okajima, Perez, and Bell.
To me this success suggests the luck involved in building a good pen. We're far more likely to get lucky on a reliever than a starter (Ohlendorf? Sanchez? Britton?). Why waste a sure thing in the pen?
A more consistent usage pattern will probably help Viz, too.
Until I start hearing the rumors that Pettitte is leaning towards coming back, the Yankee rotation needs another arm more than the pen does.
by jscape2000 on
Nov 21, 2007 3:11 AM EST
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Huh ?
I'm certainly not married to the idea of leaving Joba there, but last year the Yankees became awesome when he stepped into that role, and while I agree that there is luck involved with good bullpens, there doesn't seem to be anything close a clear choice to fill the void in the pen created by his absence. Viz is steady but not an 8th inning guy, Farnsworth stinks, and who knows about the kids.
On the other hand, the Yankees have a fistful of starters who could pitch every five days for an entire season.
I'll probably get lit up for this, but to me it seems like a team would win more games if a decent pitcher started and two excellent pitchers finished. Especially with the Yankees offense.
Two of their best pitchers would be pitching more than once every five days.
by matthaggs on
Nov 21, 2007 9:40 AM EST
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No correct answer
by SenorSwanky on
Nov 21, 2007 1:48 PM EST
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12 Man staff
Starters
Wang, Pettite, Hughes, Moose, IPK, Joba
Relievers
Rivera, Viz, Farnsworth, Ohlendorf, Britton, and either Karstens or Rasner for long relief.
Position players
Posada, Molina, Giambi, Duncan, Cano, Jeter, A-Rod, Betemit, Abreu, Melky, Damon, Matsui, and either Philips or Alberto G (I say AG, better glove man. Philips is rendered moot by the presence of both Betemit and Shelly.)
I don't think the Yankees would realistically consider this, but i think this is optimal rostering.
Econo? Jscape?
by kingrover on
Nov 21, 2007 6:18 PM EST
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No
by SenorSwanky on
Nov 21, 2007 6:36 PM EST
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I hope
by bxgrl1 on Nov 20, 2007 4:18 AM EST 0 recs
Who are you and what have you done with jscape?
Man, after the Kershaw thing, I am at a loss for words with your last two posts. Did garp steal your password or something?
by pfistyunc on Nov 20, 2007 6:57 AM EST 0 recs
Nope
As Ed said, I want to be very careful with the 3 most important members of the 2010 Yankees (Joba, Hughes, IPK).
If Joba start in the minors and pitches 5 innings once every seven days for 4 or 5 weeks it will enable him to reach his innings cap in early October instead of in mid-August.
On review, a 6 man rotation of some sort should also be considered for the first month or two.
I was off-base on the Kersaw thing- but only in naming him. If we trade one of our bats we need to get pieces in return that can be used toward acquiring an ace. In reviewing the Twins needs I think they need bats more than pitchers.
by jscape2000 on
Nov 20, 2007 1:35 PM EST
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Cooler heads prevail
As an aside, I appreciate your long-range thinking, but 2010? That's a long, long, long way off. I think we've all become too enamored with this idea that the Trinity will become Smoltz, Maddux & Glavine for us. Who knows what could happen?
by LateInningRelief on
Nov 20, 2007 1:44 PM EST
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2010
by jscape2000 on
Nov 20, 2007 3:02 PM EST
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Disagree
by Willton on
Nov 21, 2007 12:47 AM EST
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2008 Outlook
The NYY have not improved one bit. They are still the team that needed a Herculean effort from AROD to make the playoffs. They are still the team that lost the division and got knocked out in the 1st round of the playoffs to younger teams with better pitching.
They are a year older with a roster heavily weighted with old and expensive (not that that matters for NY) veterans. Not only are injuries a concern with these guys, but so is their deciling performance levels.
You can expect lower than 2007 performance from Petite,Rivera, Posada and AROD. NY also loses a productive, if expensive, Clemens.
This will be partially offset from what one would think would be a more productive Giambi and Mussina. I would also expect more solid innings from the "trinity". Though I think it is a mistake to expect too much from them.
You can be sure the NYY will buy some more FA talent. They have have plenty of cash available to overpay some new guys. There are also 6 open roster spots by my count. With the SP pitching market thin, the NYY should concentrate on locking up some relievers or maybe a bottom of the rotatation #4 type starter to take some pressure off their young arms (Jeff Weaver anyone?). I think it would be best to not rely on 2 young starters if it can be avoided. A mid season pick up of Clemens still makes sense for the NYY too. He pitched pretty well last year, though he was clearly overpriced.
Also, you would put your 1-4 up against anyone? Are you serious? Boston, Anaheim and Cleveland have much better rotations.
by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 10:19 AM EST 0 recs
Wow
by pfistyunc on
Nov 20, 2007 10:37 AM EST
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Reply
I think the Indians will not regress much next year. Sizemore did not have a great year. Hafner was a disaster. I'd expect their offense to score more next year.
Pitching wise, I expect more of the same from Sabbathia. Fausto might regress some. Byrd will probably be about the same #4 type guy he was. But the Indians should get a much better year from Westbrook and whoever their #5 (there are many options).
The big question mark is the bullpen. I am not that comfortable betting Borowski to be that lucky again.
Anaheim will be a great team if they land Miggy.
But the Red Sox are clearly the new NYY. They could win 110 games next year.
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 11:16 AM EST
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Correction: Clemens was a solid
by LateInningRelief on
Nov 20, 2007 11:17 AM EST
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Fair enough.
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 11:34 AM EST
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The Yankees
I don't think the status quo has been retained, unless you're talking about the one that emerged in the second half of '07. True, we're still behind BOS in pitching, both starters and relievers, but it's not as dire as you're suggesting. And it's certainly better than a rotation that has Igawa and Pavano. We're improved on that front - on that, you have to agree.
by docgonzo on
Nov 20, 2007 12:55 PM EST
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Take away
The status quo has not even been maintained, in that NY lost Clemens and all your old players are a year older.
Certainly the stating 5 opening day 2008 is better than the starting 5 opening day 2007. I just don't think they're better than the starting 5 at the end of 2007.
Wang/Petite/Clemens/Hughes/Mussina
is better than
Wang/Petite+1 year/Hughes/(Joba/IPK/FA)/Mussina +1year
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 1:09 PM EST
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Boston is so lucky that none of their
by garp on
Nov 20, 2007 1:41 PM EST
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Boston
Their bullpen may have over achieved, but who knows? Bullpens are uber unpredictable.
Hitter wise, I think Lowell obviously will regress. Ortiz isnt that old and didnt have an uncharacteristic year for him, except for average. Manny regressed in 2007. Manny is a health risk, but if he his healthy he should actually produce better than in 2007.
Other than those guys no one is old or playing over their heads. Do you see anyone else at risk?
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 2:00 PM EST
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I would also expect improvement
by pfistyunc on
Nov 20, 2007 2:50 PM EST
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Japanese starters
by jscape2000 on
Nov 20, 2007 2:59 PM EST
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Even so
by pfistyunc on
Nov 20, 2007 3:01 PM EST
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I agree
If we upgrade the bullpen and maybe upgrade a starter, we can compete with them no questions asked. I'd prefer to let the young guys get their shot now. With Abreu, Giambi, Farnsworth, Mussina, and Pavano coming off the books at the end of next year, let the young guys get their shot and then go after starters for 2009 and get Teixeira.
by marcbouch9 on
Nov 20, 2007 8:15 PM EST
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Yes
All the guys you mentioned should improve and Elsbiry should be much better than Crisp. Not to mention wahtever free agent they add now that they are absolutely flush with cash.
They are a scary scary team.
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 4:12 PM EST
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Boston
by stusviews on
Nov 20, 2007 2:55 PM EST
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That first rotation
As far as improvements go, we are entering '08 with better starters than we did in '07. Yes, Pettitte is a year older, and so is Mussina. But Wang is in his prime, and a Joba/Hughes/IPK combo is far superior than Pavano/Igawa.
As far as Clemens goes, I'm sorry, but he was largely ineffective for much of the season. He's simply not the pitcher he used to be. Having him out of the rotation in favor of the young guys is a plus in my opinion.
by docgonzo on
Nov 20, 2007 2:05 PM EST
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Well
I think it is folly to rely on 3 essentially rookie pitcher to comprise 60% of your starting rotation. You do not know how they will perform. It just does not work out.
If NY goes out and acquires another veteran and then has 2 rotation spots to fill with their young guys, I could accept that. Then you have many young guys to fill 2 spots. Even if the veteran wasn't an ace, as Clemens wasn't last year, he will likely provide some stabilty and predictability. Notice how much better the NYY were after Clemens was signed. True he didnt dominate for most of the season, but he was a veteran 3/4 type pitcher. That is more important that you realize.
Personally I think NY should trade for Santana, Baring that, sign a reliable #3-4 type starter. Then you can go in to the season with some depth and flexibility.
Wang, Petite, Hughes/Joba, #4 FA, IPK/Other young Guy
Thats a decent rotation, and a lot less risky. If you rely on young pitcher too much you will fail.
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 2:35 PM EST
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At the end of the season
by stusviews on
Nov 20, 2007 2:53 PM EST
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OK
Even if I concede your point, it supports my orginal idea. The NYY were not starting Joba, he was in the bullpen. After the allstar break is also when Clemens was most effective. Hence the need for a reliable 3/4 level veteran starter.
If you think they were so great after the break, why rock the boat? Replace Clemens with an equivalent piece and don't put too much pressure on the rookies.
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 3:11 PM EST
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Your roots are showing
by jscape2000 on
Nov 20, 2007 3:19 PM EST
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I partially agree
I also agree that Joba is above average. But as you said, one of the major concern with him is IP, as it is with all young pitchers. He was dominant as a setup guy in 2007. NY is weak in the bullpen. It seems like an obvious Papelbon like match to me.
You mentioned the 2003 Marlins staff, here's what they had done entering 2003:
Pavano, 27, 514 IP
Penny, 25, 54 IP
Redman, 29, 425 IP
Willis, 21, 0 IP
Beckett, 23, 132 IP
They were all young, but 4 out of 5 had significant major league experience. Even then Willis and Beckett only respectively had 162 and 147 IP that year. Compare that with the "trinity". Entering 2008:
Hughes, 22, 73 IP
Joba, 22, 24 IP
IPK, 23, 19 IP
These guys are not ready for 180+ innings each. Your own example shows you that. My point is not to keep them from pitching, but just to get a reliable non Mussina veteran to stabilize the rotation, take off some of the pressure and log some decent inning so you don't burn them out.
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 3:54 PM EST
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correction
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 4:14 PM EST
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Somewhere in between
I also think that Hughes' improvement will more than offset Pettitte's decline and Joba/IPK will more than equal Clemens. I have to think Mussina will be better and if he's not, IPK/Joba will be.
That said, additional starting depth would be very nice. I just think the bullpen and first base are bigger needs to turn a 90+ win team into a potential 100 win team that can compete with Boston.
by stusviews on
Nov 20, 2007 3:38 PM EST
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Mostly agree
However there will be some regression to the mean for the hitters you mention augmented by age-related declines. Meanwhile Boston may be better.
So the question is, where to improve (assuming Pettitte signs)? I think the best areas are first base and the bullpen leading up to Mo. I don't have faith in the Duncan/Giambi idea and I think we need improvement there. The bullpen help may come from within with Ohlendorf and Britton and whoever is not in the rotation (Joba for a year?).
All this would leave the Yankees with a playoff team but not a dominant one. Of course once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen.
by stusviews on
Nov 20, 2007 10:47 AM EST
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Followup
Bullpen could be addressed by using Joba, some new FA's and whatever other young arms NY has, I am not that familiar with their 2nd tier pitching prospects.
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 11:30 AM EST
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A few queries
- What do they do with the expensive, old and recovering from surgery Matsui?
- Where do they find a first baseman after May 1 or whenever Roidambi gets hurt?
- How many times do people have to be told that Joba will start?
by pfistyunc on
Nov 20, 2007 11:43 AM EST
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Reply
- I slot Matsui in to LF for now. If he isn't ready at the start of the year, play Damon in LF. Melky in CF, DH Giambi and start Betemit at 1B until Matsui is ready.
- There are no great FA 1B's this year. If you really need some one due to an injury, you can always get someone of the Doug Mientkiewicz level. NY has plenty of offense to allow for a mediocre 1B. I think NY should just hold this year at 1B and possibly go hard after Texiera next year. Either way, there are no great FA options.
- Cashman & Co. also said that if AROD opts out, they will not negotiate with him. Their public statements mean nothing.
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 11:57 AM EST
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What about your big free agent CFer?
by pfistyunc on
Nov 20, 2007 12:51 PM EST
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Well...
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 12:58 PM EST
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good questions all
- you gotta hope matsui can be healthy and produce, because he is not move-able.
- first base might be sticky... what about a guy like ben broussard-- righty, cheap, decent fielder, some pop, but stick him in the bottom of the order.. Keith Law from ESPN seems to think that he can be had.. and I am sure not for too much.
- joba will start, barring major injuries in the pen, and no matter how many people think he is the answer to fixing the bullpen
by NumberSeven on
Nov 20, 2007 12:05 PM EST
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on crack
by NumberSeven on
Nov 20, 2007 12:08 PM EST
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a little deeper...
- He might be moveable if the Yankees at some of his contract. He is expensive, but not insanely so.
- Ben Broussard is not a good everyday MLB player. Tony Clark is a better option. He's a class C FA, so you lose nothing by signing him.
- If his pitch count is such a concern, why the rush to start him? He was a dominant reliever last year and your bullpen stinks. A dominant setup man is harder to find than a #4 starter.
by KevinV on
Nov 20, 2007 12:47 PM EST
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more thoughts
- I don't think Matsui is anything valuable, until he proves he is healthy. I see him as the dh next year (with Damon in left).
- Broussard is better than what they have. I'd be happy with him as the 1b and #9 hitter.
- It all comes down to how worried we are about the pitch counts. If it is not too much of a concern, then there is no question he should start (and all indications are he would be a #1 or 2, not a #4). However, if he can only pitch 100-150 innings then we should start him in the pen, assuming Pettitte comes back.
by stusviews on
Nov 20, 2007 12:59 PM EST
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