So Much Depends Upon a Red Wheel Barrow

How to use Joba

I do not agree with starting Joba in the minors. If Joba starts the year on a short inning count we should not waste any of those innings in the minors.

It may make perfect sense to start the year with the rotation Wang, Mussina, Andy, Hughes, Kennedy. I say this because I'm confident we will have plenty of injuries. I do not know what is the right way to use Joba. And, I am worried about it. I just know the problem does not get better by pitching in the minors.

I am pretty sure the Yankee brains are worrying about this now. I'll be interested to hear what they have to say on the subject.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Nov 19, 2007 10:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I'd rather start him as setup man and then use him in spot starts if necessary. We need bullpen help, plain and simple. He's a great solution. Amend the Joba rules so he isn't being overtaxed but can be used a little more than at the end of last season.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 19, 2007 11:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't like the bullpen idea

He's a starter and is more valuable as a starter, despite how good he is in the bullpen. If starting doesn't work out, then he can go back to the pen.

If you look at Brian Bannister, who had a great rookie year for the Royals, he started 27 games and threw 165IP. He's a few years older than Joba, but I think we could expect 150IP out of Joba based on that. If we could also get 175 out IPK and Hughes, we should be fine. I mentioned signing Joe Kennedy a week or so ago and I'm sticking to that. He'd be a nice spot-starter or long man to plug in when the youngsters need to come out.

Phil Hughes will own you.

by marcbouch9 on Nov 20, 2007 8:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pettitte is a must!

Here is how the Yankees win in 2008

1.) Get 200 innings from Andy Pettitte
2.) Get 200 innings from Chien-Ming Wang
3.) Get a total of 300 innings from IPK, Hughes, Joba
4.) Get 120 innings from Mike Mussina, not as good as he was in 2006 but not as bad as he was in 2007.
5.) Get 70 innings each from Mariano Rivera and Luis Vizcaino.

That's roughly 2/3 of your total innings pitched by a group of guys where the worst of them projects as league-average.

I suspect that if Pettitte does not resign, we will have a similar year to '07 - lots of runs, and a huge gap between the top of your pitching staff and the bottom of it. Hopefully they take a bullpen by committee approach until some guys start to distinguish themselves too.

by kuri3460 on Nov 19, 2007 11:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

To win we need MORE

We need much more from IPK, Hughes, and Joba.

Joba pitched 112.1 last year, IPK pitched 165.1, Hughes pitched 72 because of the injury, but he went 146 in 06.

So, in 07 they pitched 350 innings. If they each only increase 30 that gives us 440. but I think we can look for, IPK 195, Phil 180, Joba 145. That's 520. That's what we need from those 3. 500+ innings.

We'll see.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Nov 20, 2007 1:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you nuts?

Joba in the minors? That's pure brilliance! LOL! Oh, sure, let's take the most dominant guy we have who has ALREADY PROVEN he belongs and put him at AAA. Yes they will be careful with him, but to waste him in the minors would be stupid.

by ETVal on Nov 19, 2007 11:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i gotta agree

...and how does 3 starts get IPK a spot in rotation over Joba, the guy who has pitched more innings, and in big spots? They need to see if Joba can start in the bigs- they know what he can do in the minors..

You don't realize how easy this game is until you get up in that broadcasting booth. -Mickey Mantle

by NumberSeven on Nov 19, 2007 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I felt that way a month ago

But I've been turning it over and over in my head and here are my three thoughts:
1) Joba can not pitch as many innings as Hughes and IPK.
2) They would like to use Joba as a starter.
3) They will not let any of the Trinity serve as Ramiro Mendoza and bounce between starting and relief.

They could use Joba as a starter and move him into the pen at some point, but if they want to be sure that there are bullets in the gun come September and October and they have a healthy 5 coming out of Spring Training, I think he will be in the minors.

As a point of reference, Hughes threw about 30 innings a month. That would use up Joba's innings limit by the end of August. Joba threw a little more than 10 innings a month as a reliever. That means moving him out of the rotation on August 1.

That'll only be easy to do if there's someone brought in to fill that hole in the rotation and there are no other injuries.

From a PR point of view (with the average fan, not the die-hards like us), it's far easier for Cashman to say "You'll see Joba in May" than to say, "We're shutting him down" on September 21st.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 19, 2007 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh???

I love you, man, but "Joba can't pitch as many innings at IPK or Hughes?" Why not? I suggest he can pitch more innings than both of them.

Normally you are dead on. But on this thread, you are so off base you got picked off. Sorry.

I would never start Joba in the minors--unless he's rehabbing an injury. He's already proven that he's got the stuff. If you are so concerned about his innings, monitor them from the MLB mounds.

If Pettitte comes back, I would drop Mussina to the situational guy. Since that isn't likely to happen, I suspect IPK will be the odd man out.

I think you need to step away from the keyboard and watch some of the parade, eat some turkey and watch football. It will refocus your usually spot-on perspective.

"Baseball is the background music of my life." -George Will

by Ronster22 on Nov 20, 2007 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Have to agree

Jscape, you and Joe are the last two people I would expect to go "garpshit crazy" on us.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 20, 2007 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

When did I say that Joba should not be in

the rotation?

Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. --Billy Martin

by garp on Nov 20, 2007 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

John is in favor

of being very careful with our young arms. I tend to agree with him. The reason that Joba can't (I guess we should so shouldn't) pitch as many innings as IPK and Hughes is their inning totals from last year. Young pitchers are supposedly only supposed to add 20-30 innings before they become in serious risk for injury.

That is why Joba was put into the bullpen this year, because he was rapidly approaching the limit the organization put on him. There are four solutions to the problem as I see it.

1 forget about the limit and hope for the best. (This isn't really a solution, but I suppose its still a way of handling the situation.)

2 Start Joba in the rotation. Pitch him until he gets to his innings limit and then shut him down and send him home.

3 Start Joba in the roation. Pitch him until he gets near his innings limit and then switch him into the bullpen for the last month or month and a half so he is still being useful to the team.

4 Start Joba in the minor leagues. We can control his innings strictly there and plan it out so that once he is called up he can pitch every 5 days till the end of the season.

Eleven wins in October...

by Edwantsacracker on Nov 20, 2007 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nardi has said...

Joba is on a 140-150 IP limit (minus any playoffs, I assume, as that's seemingly organizational policy) in 2007.

Hughes should be around 170 and IPK is mostly unlimited, given his previous counts.

by B on Nov 20, 2007 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jscape

i cant say i agree with any of your last two posts..

by Soriano NY 12 on Nov 19, 2007 11:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's funny

because (to me) my last two posts have been about the value of acquiring pieces to make the Santana deal possible (I've re-considered my position some in the last couple days), and this about the importance of Andy Pettitte to our chances next season.

I really appreciate that this board has such an active membership that everyone dives into the nuances of my posts.

But my main point (and one I should have made clearer) is that Andy will effect the season far more than the potential 35 games he'd start.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 19, 2007 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I got the answer

6 man rotation

Wang, Pettite, Hughes, IPK, Moose, Joba.

Keeps the innings down, old man Moose and Pettite stay fresh.

by kingrover on Nov 19, 2007 11:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not bad

How about Wang every 5th day and rotate the rest. Then they go every 6th or 7. That'd keep the innings done.

A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it worth the effort. Herm Albright (1876 - 1944)

by Cbeck3 on Nov 20, 2007 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bad idea

Going with a six-man rotation requires an extra arm in the bullpen. Considering that the Yankees usually go with 12 pitchers, using 13 pitchers makes the bench rather small. With the 9 starters we have (assume Damon in CF and Giambi at DH), that leaves a bench of a Backup Catcher, Betemit and Cabrera. No Duncan; no Phillips.

by Willton on Nov 21, 2007 12:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oops

Nevermind, it's either Duncan or Phillips, as one has to play 1st base.

by Willton on Nov 21, 2007 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Girardi

is not going to revinvent the wheel in his first season.

The Yanks will use a five man rotation. That you can take to the bank.

I will be curious to see how Girardi handles the 4 players for 3 everyday roles situation with regard to Cabrera, Damon, Matsui and Giambi.

With Torre certain patterns developed where he would play his favorites. Now it's a whole new ballgame.

And dare I say it, but the whole that Joba left when he allegedly left his role in the bullpen is still a gaping one. Is it really THAT bad of an idea to leave him there for another year?

by matthaggs on Nov 21, 2007 2:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It is that bad an idea

Here's one reason why.

Another is how too easily for fans (and the media) to get caught up in "he did well before" (see Spencer, Shane; 1999).

Another is 160 innings are worth more than 80 innings.

A final reason is that the Yankee bullpen isn't as far from above average as we're inclined to think.
Three of the four top pens in MLB (Bos, Cle, Ana, SD by my count) all added at least one surprisingly successful guy in 2007: Okajima, Perez, and Bell.
To me this success suggests the luck involved in building a good pen. We're far more likely to get lucky on a reliever than a starter (Ohlendorf? Sanchez? Britton?). Why waste a sure thing in the pen?
A more consistent usage pattern will probably help Viz, too.

Until I start hearing the rumors that Pettitte is leaning towards coming back, the Yankee rotation needs another arm more than the pen does.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 21, 2007 3:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh ?

The article you linked to supports leaving Papelbon in the pen.

I'm certainly not married to the idea of leaving Joba there, but last year the Yankees became awesome when he stepped into that role, and while I agree that there is luck involved with good bullpens, there doesn't seem to be anything close a clear choice to fill the void in the pen created by his absence. Viz is steady but not an 8th inning guy, Farnsworth stinks, and who knows about the kids.

On the other hand, the Yankees have a fistful of starters who could pitch every five days for an entire season.

I'll probably get lit up for this, but to me it seems like a team would win more games if a decent pitcher started and two excellent pitchers finished. Especially with the Yankees offense.

Two of their best pitchers would be pitching more than once every five days.

by matthaggs on Nov 21, 2007 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No correct answer

We can't yet say how Joba will do as a starter in the majors long-term. But it's wroth finding out. We can say with more certainty he'd be a great closer (and setup man for now). But if Pettitte does retire, we probably need to put Joba in the rotation. But then what about his innings cap? We can't start him in the minors because he's too valuable in the majors--more than almost any of our other pitchers--and he clearly has the guts and stuff to fill some role with the big club now. So how about we get the best of both worlds? Start him in the rotation, then trade for a starter midseason and put Joba back in the pen down the stretch.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 21, 2007 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

12 Man staff

Do we really need that 13th guy in the pen?

Starters
Wang, Pettite, Hughes, Moose, IPK, Joba

Relievers
Rivera, Viz, Farnsworth, Ohlendorf, Britton, and either Karstens or Rasner for long relief.

Position players
Posada, Molina, Giambi, Duncan, Cano, Jeter, A-Rod, Betemit, Abreu, Melky, Damon, Matsui, and either Philips or Alberto G (I say AG, better glove man. Philips is rendered moot by the presence of both Betemit and Shelly.)

I don't think the Yankees would realistically consider this, but i think this is optimal rostering.

Econo? Jscape?

by kingrover on Nov 21, 2007 6:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No

Too much rest for starters is almost as bad as too little rest, especially for Wang. And we need more in the pen than that. You think Viz was overtired last season?

by SenorSwanky on Nov 21, 2007 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hope

that we didn't bring him up too soon (I don't think we did but there are schools of thought that maybe we did) BUT I don't think that he should go back to the minors. He simply doesn't belong there. If we're concerned about pitch count, make him a setup guy and give him a few starts and figure it out. I'd like to see what he has as a starter because I think he could be an ace, but we need setup and he needs his innings limited. I think if Guidry was still coaching the kids I'd be more concerned. I think that it will be less of a problem this year.

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Nov 20, 2007 4:18 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Who are you and what have you done with jscape?

No way in hell Joba starts in the minors. The team and fans are way too excited about him. Oh, and the fact that he has a chance to be their best starter probably leans towards keeping him in the majors too.

Man, after the Kershaw thing, I am at a loss for words with your last two posts. Did garp steal your password or something?

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 20, 2007 6:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Nope

This is the same me.

As Ed said, I want to be very careful with the 3 most important members of the 2010 Yankees (Joba, Hughes, IPK).

If Joba start in the minors and pitches 5 innings once every seven days for 4 or 5 weeks it will enable him to reach his innings cap in early October instead of in mid-August.

On review, a 6 man rotation of some sort should also be considered for the first month or two.

I was off-base on the Kersaw thing- but only in naming him. If we trade one of our bats we need to get pieces in return that can be used toward acquiring an ace. In reviewing the Twins needs I think they need bats more than pitchers.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 20, 2007 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cooler heads prevail

I agree that the 6-man rotation is the answer. Moose may even be a decent starter with more rest. Solely from a PR perspective, there is no way that Joba starts the season in the minors.

As an aside, I appreciate your long-range thinking, but 2010? That's a long, long, long way off. I think we've all become too enamored with this idea that the Trinity will become Smoltz, Maddux & Glavine for us. Who knows what could happen?

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Nov 20, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2010

Is the first year Joba will be able to surpass 200 innings if he is on a +30IP/year plan. My point is really that these guys (and Wang and Cano) will be the backbone of the next string of teams. If we're going to keep them, we need to treat them carefully.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 20, 2007 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

As I said earlier, going with a 6-man rotation makes the bench very small.

by Willton on Nov 21, 2007 12:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

2008 Outlook

If Petite Resigns:

The NYY have not improved one bit. They are still the team that needed a Herculean effort from AROD to make the playoffs. They are still the team that lost the division and got knocked out in the 1st round of the playoffs to younger teams with better pitching.

They are a year older with a roster heavily weighted with old and expensive (not that that matters for NY) veterans. Not only are injuries a concern with these guys, but so is their deciling performance levels.

You can expect lower than 2007 performance from Petite,Rivera, Posada and AROD. NY also loses a productive, if expensive, Clemens.

This will be partially offset from what one would think would be a more productive Giambi and Mussina. I would also expect more solid innings from the "trinity". Though I think it is a mistake to expect too much from them.

You can be sure the NYY will buy some more FA talent. They have have plenty of cash available to overpay some new guys. There are also 6 open roster spots by my count. With the SP pitching market thin, the NYY should concentrate on locking up some relievers or maybe a bottom of the rotatation #4 type starter to take some pressure off their young arms (Jeff Weaver anyone?). I think it would be best to not rely on 2 young starters if it can be avoided. A mid season pick up of Clemens still makes sense for the NYY too. He pitched pretty well last year, though he was clearly overpriced.

Also, you would put your 1-4 up against anyone? Are you serious? Boston, Anaheim and Cleveland have much better rotations.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Simultaneously claiming Rocket was productive and advocating the return of Jeff Weaver. I am at a loss for words. That being said, I agree with you in general. The Yankees have maintained the status quo and have not closed the gap on Boston. Expect more of the same next fall if this team is lucky enough to make the playoffs. I expect a regression from the Indians, so I am just hoping that the Angels can snag Miggy so someone can challenge the Red Sox next season.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 20, 2007 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reply

Clemens was a solid #3 pitcher last year. If NY can stomach the cost he wouldn't be a bad way to get some solid innings. Weaver was just a random name, any #4 type pitcher would do.

I think the Indians will not regress much next year. Sizemore did not have a great year. Hafner was a disaster. I'd expect their offense to score more next year.

Pitching wise, I expect more of the same from Sabbathia. Fausto might regress some. Byrd will probably be about the same #4 type guy he was. But the Indians should get a much better year from Westbrook and whoever their #5 (there are many options).

The big question mark is the bullpen. I am not that comfortable betting Borowski to be that lucky again.

Anaheim will be a great team if they land Miggy.

But the Red Sox are clearly the new NYY. They could win 110 games next year.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Correction: Clemens was a solid

# 3 pitcher with 10 days of rest.

I always feel pressure. What I don't have is fear. -- El Duque

by LateInningRelief on Nov 20, 2007 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough.

Hah, fair enough. But still thats 120+ solid innings. Put that together with Joba/IPK and you have a solid starter for the whole year.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Yankees

challenged BOS well enough last year to win the season series 10-8, and after a horrendous 1-5 start to boot. Take away April and May last year - let's say they went an even .500 - and the Yankees would have won the AL East.

I don't think the status quo has been retained, unless you're talking about the one that emerged in the second half of '07. True, we're still behind BOS in pitching, both starters and relievers, but it's not as dire as you're suggesting. And it's certainly better than a rotation that has Igawa and Pavano. We're improved on that front - on that, you have to agree.

by docgonzo on Nov 20, 2007 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Take away

Take away this, take away that...you can make things seem any way you want doing that.

The status quo has not even been maintained, in that NY lost Clemens and all your old players are a year older.

Certainly the stating 5 opening day 2008 is better than the starting 5 opening day 2007. I just don't think they're better than the starting 5 at the end of 2007.

Wang/Petite/Clemens/Hughes/Mussina
is better than
Wang/Petite+1 year/Hughes/(Joba/IPK/FA)/Mussina +1year

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boston is so lucky that none of their

players ever get older or regress.

Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. --Billy Martin

by garp on Nov 20, 2007 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boston

Out of Boston's pitchers, I would only expect Schilling and Wakefield to regressdue to age. Wakefield less so with his being a knuckleballer.

Their bullpen may have over achieved, but who knows? Bullpens are uber unpredictable.

Hitter wise, I think Lowell obviously will regress. Ortiz isnt that old and didnt have an uncharacteristic year for him, except for average. Manny regressed in 2007. Manny is a health risk, but if he his healthy he should actually produce better than in 2007.

Other than those guys no one is old or playing over their heads. Do you see anyone else at risk?

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would also expect improvement

from Drew, Lugo and Dice K. Also, I am not sure if you noticed but Buccholz and Lester are not too shabby either.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 20, 2007 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Japanese starters

have all had their best years early. Granted, Dice-K is young, but I don't expect him to make any great strides next season. A repeat of 2007 would have to be considered success.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 20, 2007 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even so

their rotation is likely to be helped greatly by adding Lester and the laptop thief. I would also expect Drew to bounce back to his norms since (I think) his kid's health is not as bad as it was during last season.

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 20, 2007 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Dice-K I think won't have the fall off that the others did, but adjusting to the pitching schedule took its toll on him. I would be reluctant to think Beckett will repeat his performance...look at his career numbers and you'll see he is up and down. Schilling is nothing special at this point. Wakefield is Wakefield. Lester is decent and Bucholz is no better than Joba or Hughes. Ortiz had knee surgery, Lowell is older and NOT in a contract year, Manny has been dinged up the last few years and no one else in that line up is that scary (Youklis and Pedroia are solid but not scary).

If we upgrade the bullpen and maybe upgrade a starter, we can compete with them no questions asked. I'd prefer to let the young guys get their shot now. With Abreu, Giambi, Farnsworth, Mussina, and Pavano coming off the books at the end of next year, let the young guys get their shot and then go after starters for 2009 and get Teixeira.

Phil Hughes will own you.

by marcbouch9 on Nov 20, 2007 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

I agree to me it seems Boston is far more likely to be better in 2008 than in 2007.

All the guys you mentioned should improve and Elsbiry should be much better than Crisp. Not to mention wahtever free agent they add now that they are absolutely flush with cash.

They are a scary scary team.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Boston

They could have a monster year next year. I agree that Lowell and Schilling are the only ones likely to regress. Pedroia may get better and Ellsbury will get 300 at bats. On the other hand one or two key injuries (Ortiz, Papelbon) and all of a sudden they go from great to very good and beatable.

by stusviews on Nov 20, 2007 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That first rotation

is not an accurate depiction of the rotation throughout most of the season. You're leaving out Pavano, Igawa, Karstens, Rasner and a host of others who comprised the many starters we had last year, particularly in the beginning. If that was the rotation from the start, I'm positive the year-end results would have been different.

As far as improvements go, we are entering '08 with better starters than we did in '07. Yes, Pettitte is a year older, and so is Mussina. But Wang is in his prime, and a Joba/Hughes/IPK combo is far superior than Pavano/Igawa.

As far as Clemens goes, I'm sorry, but he was largely ineffective for much of the season. He's simply not the pitcher he used to be. Having him out of the rotation in favor of the young guys is a plus in my opinion.

by docgonzo on Nov 20, 2007 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I was speaking about the end of the season, not the begining. So no what I listed was not an accurate rotation for the early season.

I think it is folly to rely on 3 essentially rookie pitcher to comprise 60% of your starting rotation. You do not know how they will perform. It just does not work out.

If NY goes out and acquires another veteran and then has 2 rotation spots to fill with their young guys, I could accept that. Then you have many young guys to fill 2 spots. Even if the veteran wasn't an ace, as Clemens wasn't last year, he will likely provide some stabilty and predictability. Notice how much better the NYY were after Clemens was signed. True he didnt dominate for most of the season, but he was a veteran 3/4 type pitcher. That is more important that you realize.

Personally I think NY should trade for Santana, Baring that, sign a reliable #3-4 type starter. Then you can go in to the season with some depth and flexibility.

Wang, Petite, Hughes/Joba, #4 FA, IPK/Other young Guy

Thats a decent rotation, and a lot less risky. If you rely on young pitcher too much you will fail.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At the end of the season

the Yankees were arguably the best team in baseball from the All Star Break forward.

by stusviews on Nov 20, 2007 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK

They got hot, yes. But I think the playoffs showed who the better teams were.

Even if I concede your point, it supports my orginal idea. The NYY were not starting Joba, he was in the bullpen. After the allstar break is also when Clemens was most effective. Hence the need for a reliable 3/4 level veteran starter.

If you think they were so great after the break, why rock the boat? Replace Clemens with an equivalent piece and don't put too much pressure on the rookies.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Your roots are showing

It's not rocking the boat to put Joba in the rotation. Average relievers are easier to find than average starters. Joba is above average. The only reason not to use Joba as a starter is for the sake of his innings. Why would many young pitchers inherently bring failure? The 2003 Marlins did alright with young pitching. The Indians were a mix, but their key pitchers were Sabathia (a vet), Carmona (second year), Rafael Betancort (a vet), and Rafael Perez (second year). If three rookies were ever poised to perform, it is this trio. They won't be perfect and they'll go through tough stretches. But they will be good.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 20, 2007 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I partially agree

I agree that they will be good. They were dominant at times in 2007.

I also agree that Joba is above average. But as you said, one of the major concern with him is IP, as it is with all young pitchers. He was dominant as a setup guy in 2007. NY is weak in the bullpen. It seems like an obvious Papelbon like match to me.

You mentioned the 2003 Marlins staff, here's what they had done entering 2003:

Pavano, 27, 514 IP
Penny, 25, 54 IP
Redman, 29, 425 IP
Willis, 21, 0 IP
Beckett, 23, 132 IP

They were all young, but 4 out of 5 had significant major league experience. Even then Willis and Beckett only respectively had 162 and 147 IP that year. Compare that with the "trinity". Entering 2008:

Hughes, 22, 73 IP
Joba, 22, 24 IP
IPK, 23, 19 IP

These guys are not ready for 180+ innings each. Your own example shows you that. My point is not to keep them from pitching, but just to get a reliable non Mussina veteran to stabilize the rotation, take off some of the pressure and log some decent inning so you don't burn them out.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

correction

Brad Penny's IP total should have read 454, not 54.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Somewhere in between

I think they were much closer to the team they were in the second half than in the first half. Four games show very little.

I also think that Hughes' improvement will more than offset Pettitte's decline and Joba/IPK will more than equal Clemens. I have to think Mussina will be better and if he's not, IPK/Joba will be.

That said, additional starting depth would be very nice. I just think the bullpen and first base are bigger needs to turn a 90+ win team into a potential 100 win team that can compete with Boston.

by stusviews on Nov 20, 2007 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mostly agree

I think the biggest improvement will be from the "trinity" over Igawa/Karstens/Rasner/Clippard/Desalvo/the list goes on.

However there will be some regression to the mean for the hitters you mention augmented by age-related declines. Meanwhile Boston may be better.

So the question is, where to improve (assuming Pettitte signs)? I think the best areas are first base and the bullpen leading up to Mo. I don't have faith in the Duncan/Giambi idea and I think we need improvement there. The bullpen help may come from within with Ohlendorf and Britton and whoever is not in the rotation (Joba for a year?).

All this would leave the Yankees with a playoff team but not a dominant one. Of course once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen.

by stusviews on Nov 20, 2007 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Followup

I agree that 1B needs to be addressed, but I think it will be addressed from within. NY will probably sign one of the many good CF's available this year. Then move Damon to DH, and use Giambi at 1B for as long as he is healthy. He still puts up pretty decent numbers if he isnt hurt.

Bullpen could be addressed by using Joba, some new FA's and whatever other young arms NY has, I am not that familiar with their 2nd tier pitching prospects.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A few queries

What do they do with the expensive, old and recovering from surgery Matsui?
Where do they find a first baseman after May 1 or whenever Roidambi gets hurt?
How many times do people have to be told that Joba will start?

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 20, 2007 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Reply

I slot Matsui in to LF for now. If he isn't ready at the start of the year, play Damon in LF. Melky in CF, DH Giambi and start Betemit at 1B until Matsui is ready.
There are no great FA 1B's this year. If you really need some one due to an injury, you can always get someone of the Doug Mientkiewicz level. NY has plenty of offense to allow for a mediocre 1B. I think NY should just hold this year at 1B and possibly go hard after Texiera next year. Either way, there are no great FA options.
Cashman & Co. also said that if AROD opts out, they will not negotiate with him. Their public statements mean nothing.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What about your big free agent CFer?

Fear the Evil Empire

by pfistyunc on Nov 20, 2007 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

I was basing my response on the current roster, which I think coul absorb the loss of Matsui for a while. Bu tif they sign a better CF and Matsui gets hurt you move Melky to Left, Damon to DH, Giambi 1B.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

good questions all

you gotta hope matsui can be healthy and produce, because he is not move-able.
first base might be sticky... what about a guy like ben broussard-- righty, cheap, decent fielder, some pop, but stick him in the bottom of the order.. Keith Law from ESPN seems to think that he can be had.. and I am sure not for too much.
joba will start, barring major injuries in the pen, and no matter how many people think he is the answer to fixing the bullpen

You don't realize how easy this game is until you get up in that broadcasting booth. -Mickey Mantle

by NumberSeven on Nov 20, 2007 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

on crack

broussard's a lefty.. but still.

You don't realize how easy this game is until you get up in that broadcasting booth. -Mickey Mantle

by NumberSeven on Nov 20, 2007 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

a little deeper...

He might be moveable if the Yankees at some of his contract. He is expensive, but not insanely so.
Ben Broussard is not a good everyday MLB player. Tony Clark is a better option. He's a class C FA, so you lose nothing by signing him.
If his pitch count is such a concern, why the rush to start him? He was a dominant reliever last year and your bullpen stinks. A dominant setup man is harder to find than a #4 starter.

by KevinV on Nov 20, 2007 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

more thoughts

I don't think Matsui is anything valuable, until he proves he is healthy. I see him as the dh next year (with Damon in left).
Broussard is better than what they have. I'd be happy with him as the 1b and #9 hitter.
It all comes down to how worried we are about the pitch counts. If it is not too much of a concern, then there is no question he should start (and all indications are he would be a #1 or 2, not a #4). However, if he can only pitch 100-150 innings then we should start him in the pen, assuming Pettitte comes back.

by stusviews on Nov 20, 2007 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

more reply

I don't think he has that much value either. My point was that if the NYY will eat part of his salary they could unload him. I didn't say you'd get much of anything in return, but he could be unloaded.
Broussard is a bum. You guys would HATE him. He was not a good player in cleveland. Unless you want to run him in a platoon at 1B he should not be playing. Besides you can get a better 1B as a FA now. Why not do that?

Where do you put Giambi? Giambi is an over paid injury prone steroid junkie to be sure, but he still produces better than Broussard when he is healthy.

3. Pitch counts defiantely are a concern. Pitchers do not pitch as many innings in the minors. Joba and IPK are not ready for 180+ innings. They need to be worked up to that over a number of years. Cleveland did exactly what you are trying to do to the "trinity" with Jaret Wright. How well did that work out?

by KevinV on Nov 21, 2007 8:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We cannot succeed

with a limp Wang.

by imastoopidbtch on Nov 20, 2007 3:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Status quo = another disappointing post season

I am a lifelong die-hard Yankee fan, and former season ticket holder. But I'm afraid I must agree wholeheartedly with Kevin000: even if Pettitte re-signs, the NYY have not improved one bit with their current rotation, and are probably headed backwards given age and wear.

As Kevin correctly stated: "They are still the team that needed a Herculean effort from AROD to make the playoffs. They are still the team that lost the division and got knocked out in the 1st round of the playoffs to younger teams with better pitching. They are a year older with a roster heavily weighted with old and expensive (not that that matters for NY) veterans. Not only are injuries a concern with these guys, but so is their deciling performance levels. You can expect lower than 2007 performance from Petite,Rivera, Posada and AROD."

I also agree may other teams - direct rivals - have better 1-4's than we do.

The only way the Yanks get over the "first round hump" is to try to get a younger, dominant, no. 1 type pitcher, ala Beckett, that can dominate a top team in the post season. The way a young Clemens, Shilling or Randy Johnson did in their prime. Or Gibson. Or Seaver. Or Hershiser. Or Guidry.

Like Johan Santana can. A pitcher who could take control of 2-3 starts in a seven game series and dominate.

Wang is a great pitch-to-contact pitcher and a guaranteed 18-19 wins against the overall AL over 35 starts, but when you need a lights-out-dominant-force to shut down the better teams in the post season, he is not your guy. The Yankees have a huge void, that left unfilled will result in further postseason disappointment. As good as he is, Pettitte isn't that guy anymore either. Neither is Mussina, Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy...etc.

When the Red Sox tried to move a dominant Papelbon to the starting rotation, it became clear that having him be a lights-out closer for 40 or 50 appearances and shutting down the top opposing teams was a better weapon than getting 15-18 wins from him. The same is true for Chamberlain. He is untested as a starter, and may never be the pitcher we all hope for when he has to pace himself for 90-100 pitches.

If you watched Joba throw 100-mph gas this year, he was utterly dominant in one-inning appearances....but significantly less effective in 2 inning appearances, especially as the season wore on and the better teams showed up in the post season. That's after only 30-40 pitches...where is he after 70? Yes I know he has more pitches in his arsenal than he showed us last year, but he's got to ease up on his stuff (especially the 100-mph gas) in order to give you 6-7 innings, and my fear is that when he does, he'll be much more hittable. There is a big difference between trying to hit a 100-mph heater after an 88-mph slider than trying to hit a 93-mph heater after an 88-mph slider. Then we'll not only will have a problem at the starting pitcher role, but we'll have a void at the "bridge" where Joba utterly dominated last year.

Joba is much more valuable as the 8th inning bridge to Rivera (the way Rivera was to Wettland), and eventually as the closer when Rivera retires. He can make 50-60 appearances and hold together more victories in that role than he ever will as a starter.

My thinking is the Yanks need to keep Joba in his current role, and desperately try to deal for a pitcher like Santana. A rotation of Santana/Wang/Hughes/Pettitte/Kennedy and/or Mussina is as good as anybody's, and a bullpen that keeps Joba and Mo as the final two is going to close out just about anybody. We'd still have long/middle relief holes, although those could be more easily filled than a no. 1 starter, "bridge," or closer.

As much as I hate to say it because I really admire his tools and skills, I'd even give up Melky (regrettably because he may be another Bernie someday) and Kennedy to get Santana if we could tie up Santana for a couple of years. We'd have a lot better chance of winning in the post season with a pitching staff like that. You're not going to get a dominant no. 1 for prospects. The Yanks have 4 outfielders under contract now but the only marketable one is Melky. It would hurt longterm to lose him but the potential to win in the post season is better with the improvement Santana gives the Yanks in the rotation vs. saving Melky but relying on the current staff to somehow hold it together against rotations like Beckett, Dice-K, Shilling, Buckoltz, etc....

by cinco64 on Nov 20, 2007 7:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

ok..but how do we do that?

"My thinking is the Yanks need to keep Joba in his current role, and desperately try to deal for a pitcher like Santana. A rotation of Santana/Wang/Hughes/Pettitte/Kennedy and/or Mussina is as good as anybody's, and a bullpen that keeps Joba and Mo as the final two is going to close out just about anybody. We'd still have long/middle relief holes, although those could be more easily filled than a no. 1 starter, "bridge," or closer. "

how do we get santana and still have wang, joba, phil, and ian on board? cano alone won't net santana. this is an extremely thin free gent market for pitching (lohse anyone?), everyone knows it, and santana is arguably the best pitcher in baseball not named beckett. put yourself in the twins' gm's shoes. "hey twins fans, i just traded away johan f-ing santana for a fourth outfielder and some second tier prospects."

by tombradylikesdudes on Nov 20, 2007 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Forget Santana for this year

and forget trading Robbie for him. We need to wait for him to be FA and then just throw money at him. Money we got.

We went down the tubes not cultivating our youngsters and going out to get the big names with $$$ (I still have Randy Johnson nightmares). It needs to stop. We need to cultivate the farm hands and LEAVE THEM ON THE TEAM once they come up (ala Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Cano, Wang et al) and throw some money around to get some big pitcher but NOT for one-year. It has to be long-term to make sense.

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by bxgrl1 on Nov 20, 2007 11:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Last time I saw Santana in the postseason

he did not look quite lights out.

Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier. The cigars taste better. The trees are greener. --Billy Martin

by garp on Nov 20, 2007 10:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Joba's a starter

Joba was lights out in the minors as a starter, he should at least get a chance to show his stuff as a starter in the majors. An ace pitcher is better than an ace reliever. 180 innings are more valuable than 60 innings out of the pen, even if the "bridge" inning are higher leverage. Good relief pitchers are usually failed starters, let Joba fail as a starter before we relegate him to 60-80 innings a year.

by kingrover on Nov 20, 2007 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Leverage

You're dead on.

If Joba can keep the other team from scoring in the first place, the bridge has a margin of error.

"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."

by jscape2000 on Nov 21, 2007 12:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You have to give up to get...

....then I think you have to be willing to give up Kennedy and Melky and maybe a prospect or two to get a Santana. The way the Sox gave up Hanley Ramierez to get Beckett. It hurts both ways, but the Sox got the job done and are celebrating WS title no. 2 this October.

I don't believe Cano should enter into the discussion - he is too valuable long term. But if you could tie up Santana for more than 2 years I'd give up Kennedy and Melky to get him. You might hurt from the loss of Melky, but if you keep him we end up with another solid hitting lineup that watches the ALCS on TV. If you get Santana you can probably pencil him in for 18+ wins. 18 from Santana, 18 from Wang, 16 from Hughes, 20 from the bullpen....that's 72 wins. You need another 22-23 wins to get to the postseason from your no. 4 + 5 starters. If Pettitte is one of them, you're there. Then you throw Santana, Wang and Pettitte with Hughes as no. 4 in the postseason and that's just about as good as you can hope for. Santana gets min. 2 starts in a 5 game series and possibly 3 in a 7 game series. You can't put yourself in a better position to win than that.

If we go into the regular season hoping that Joba and Kennedy are going to give us 30-35 wins, then I think Yankee fans have to accept that we are probably not going to be a player in the post season in 2008. You need 30 wins from them because the bullpen will give you 20 wins, Wang will give you 18, and Hughes (hopefully) will give you 16+. That's 54 wins, +/-. You need 40 more between Kennedy, Joba, and Moose or someone else. Good luck.

by cinco64 on Nov 21, 2007 10:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

No one wants Melky that bad

You do have to give up to get. IPK + Melky + Junk does not get you Santana. You will have to cut deeper than that. Its just a matter of whether it is worth the price of a Hughes or Joba. I say it is, most here say it isn't. Melky is not that great. No one wants him that badly.

You are right about Cano. He is exactly the sort of player you want. Why would you trade him?

You are also right about not getting 30-35 wins out of Joba/IPK at this point in time. They are not ready for a full 180+ inning work load at this point. Maybe next year, but not yet.

by KevinV on Nov 21, 2007 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Santana

I would trade Hughes, IPK, Melky, and a host of other prospects but not Joba or Cano. I think Joba has more promise than Hughes or IPK, and Cano just cannot be replaced; we have no one else with his offensive production ready to take over at 2B.

by SenorSwanky on Nov 21, 2007 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You might be right...

...maybe Melky + IPK doesn't get Santana done...time will tell. I don't think its worth Joba or Hughes to get Santana. Trading Hughes for Santana doesn't help you a whole lot in the regular season (maybe five more wins), but we'd still have another starting pitcher hole to fill. Trading Joba might be worth it if you see him as a starter...if he stays a "bridge" I wouldn't trade him for anyone, including Santana.

Cano is .300/20-25/100 for the next 10 years. Gotta try to keep him.

Your last statement is the crux of the problem. Is Yankee Nation prepared to sacrifice 2008 for 2009 and beyond? I don't think so. Many posters say "yes" now during hot stove time, but I guarantee you if we're into May and 8-10 games behind the Sox, you'll hear all kinds of hell from Yankee fans. And I certainly don't think Yankee Brass will be willing to do that. Not during the last year in Yankee Stadium. Not during the year we have the all-star game. If we're sticking to the IPK/Hughes/Joba starting core with Wang and whomever, we might find ourselves 10+ games out of the race by the all-star game...if that embarrasment happens heads will surely roll....

by cinco64 on Nov 21, 2007 11:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs